美委石油协议或成OPEC瓦解导火索

Over the weekend, the Trump administration came out with a very unusual announcement. Namely, that the US had struck a deal with Venezuela's government to grant a US company majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil, which equates to more than a fifth of Venezuela's proven reserves. To put 65 billion barrels in perspective, the US's own reserves stand at roughly 44 billion barrels. Now, the Trump administration will not own the full 65 billion barrels.

Instead, it will become the majority owner of a joint company with a private operator in Venezuela. The Venezuelan state will apparently have no operational role, but will receive royalties and taxes from the oil produced. This is highly unusual for several reasons, but the one we want to focus on today is what it means for OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which Venezuela is a founding member.

OPEC's influence on global oil markets seems to have been waning for some time now, but this new development might just be the final nail in the coffin for the 65year-old group. So, in this video, we're going to dive into the four reasons that we believe could possibly bring about the slow death of OPEC. OPEC's loss of total global oil output and the rise of the US as a major oil exporter, the war in Iran, China's outsized influence on oil markets, and the global rise of renewables.

You probably heard that the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, but what does that mean? Is it still the case? And what does it mean if it's not the case? We've got a multi-page answer in the next issue of our magazine. That's just one of the articles in our longest issue ever. Subscribe to get your copy by clicking the link in the description. So, for those of you who don't know, OPEC was formed in 1960 by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Venezuela, but it only really became globally relevant in the 1970s thanks to both a decline in American oil production and the dramatic expansion in OPEC membership, which meant that by 1970, the group accounted for half of global oil production.

Now, OPEC's power did wayne in the 80s and 90s as a rise in nonOPEC production from places like Alaska, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico pushed OPEC's share of total production down from about 50% to more like 35%. But when China became a huge customer in the 2000s, and the group expanded membership again, it was able to once again push up prices via a series of production cuts. However, persistently high prices encouraged the development of the shale sector in the US, triggering a surge in American production throughout the 2010s, which ultimately undercut OPEC and brought down global prices.

In an attempt to regain control, in 2016, OPEC massively expanded to add 11 more countries, including, most notably, Russia. This new mega alliance was known as OPEC Plus and accounted for about half of global production. Some OPC Plus members were optimistic that this expanded group would