美伊互袭致油价破95美元，美债收益率创19年新高

ABEER: GOOD MORNING. THIS IS "HORIZONS: MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA." OUR TOP STORIES THIS MORNING. STRIKES ESCALATE. AMERICAN FORCES UNLEASHED FRESH ATTACKS ON IRANIAN TARGETS. TEHRAN SAID IT RETALIATED AGAINST U.S. BASES IN THE REGION AS THE CONFLICT INTENSIFIES. CRUDE CLIMES. OIL PRICES RISE FOR A THIRD SESSION AS FRESH ATTACKS THREATEN HORMUZ FLOWS. BRENT TOPS $95 AS TRADERS PRICE IN THE RISK OF PROLONGED SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS.

AND BOND PRESSURES RETURN. U.S. TREASURY YIELDS ERASE GAINS FROM BESSENT'S BUYBACK PUSH. THE 30 YEAR YIELD CLIMBS BACK TO A 19 YEAR HIGH AS THE GLOBAL BOND SELLOFF DEEPENS. IT'S JUST GONE 8:00 A.M. ACROSS THE EMIRATES. I'M AT BUREAU BLOOMBERG IN DUBAI. -- I AM ABEER ABU OMAR IN DUBAI. U.S. FUTURES ARE DROPPING 0.1%. S&P 500 DID DROP FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT SESSION YESTERDAY, 0.7%. INVESTORS ARE BRACING WHETHER IT IS LOOKING AT THOSE HIGHER YIELDS, WHETHER IT IS LOOKING AT THOSE GEOPOLITICAL ESCALATIONS FROM THE MIDDLE EAST.

BUT THIS IS INVESTORS EMBRACING. YOU SEE EQUITIES IN DIFFERENT SPACES ALL IN THE RED. BUT WE RETURN TO THE BOND STORY. TAKE A LOOK AT THE YIELDS. THE 10 YEAR YIELDS, THE 30 YEAR YIELDS, THEY HAVE WIPED OUT THOSE GAINS THAT WE SAW SINCE THE BUYBACK PUSH FROM SCOTT BESSENT. 10 YEAR YIELDS AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2023. WE ARE LOOKING AT 19 YEAR HIGHS, OR TOWARD 19 YEAR HIGHS, FOR THE 30 YEAR YIELD. INVESTORS ARE REALLY LOOKING AT WHETHER THIS TEMPORARY BUYBACK PUSH IS GOING TO BE MEANINGFUL.

APPARENTLY NOT FROM THE LEVELS WE ARE SEEING NOW. 10 YEAR YIELDS NOT DOING MUCH THIS MORNING, LESS THAN A BASIS POINT HIGHER. BUT WE SAW 10 BASIS POINTS HIGHER SINCE THAT BUYBACK WAS ANNOUNCED. OF COURSE, BRENT CRUDE, LOOK AT THE LEVEL, $95 ON THE BARREL. ABOUT A PERCENT HIGHER. WE ARE BACK TO CONNECTICUT WARFARE IN THE REGION. MILITARY STRIKES, PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYING HE HAS NO INTEREST IN COMING BACK TO THE TABLE. IRAN SAYING THEY WILL ONLY COME BACK IF THE U.S.

STICKS TO THE MOU CONCESSIONS SIGNED OVER TWO MONTHS AGO AND ESSENTIALLY RETURNS TO DIPLOMACY ON ITS PART. THAT IS A DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EASTERN GEOPOLITICAL STORY THAT WE WILL DISCUSS MOMENTARILY. BUT NOW, FOR A LOOK AT WHAT ASIAN MARKETS ARE DOING THIS MORNING, WE HAVE WINNIE HSU AS USUAL FOR US IN HONG KONG. WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING AT? WINNIE: GOOD MORNING. ANOTHER DAY FOR THAT MICRO STORY -- MACRO STORY. GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS, INFLATION CONCERNS, AND THOSE ARE LEADING THE GLOBAL YIELDS HIGHER, AND THAT IS SPILLING OVER TO ASIAN STOCKS TODAY AS WE SEE THE MSCI ASIA DOWN ABOUT 2% AFTER SIX DAYS OF GAINS.

OBVIOUSLY TECH STOCKS ARE LEADING TO CLIENTS TODAY. BUT MOST OF THE SECTORS IN THE MSCI ASIA ARE ALL DOWN. OUT OF ALL THE TECH HEAVY GAUGES, WE ARE SEEING TAIWANESE STOCKS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER, DOWN 1.5%, PERHAPS ALSO BEING HELPED BY THE NVIDIA INVESTMENTS WE HEARD FROM YESTERDAY AS WELL AS DELL'S MORE UPBEAT EARNINGS OUTLOOK AS WELL. ALSO, TAIWANESE STOCKS JUST TOPPED KOREA TO BECOME THE WORLD'S BEST PERFORMING MAJOR STOCK GAUGE SO FAR THIS YEAR.

FLIP THE BOARD BACK TO THAT BOND STORY. WE CAN SEE THAT GLOBAL YIELDS ARE HIGHER AND THE JAPANESE 10 YEAR YIELD SITTING JUST ABOVE THAT 3% LEVEL, WHICH IS THE HIGHEST LEVEL WE HAVEN'T SEEN SINCE 1996. SIMILAR MOVES IN THE AUSTRALIA 10 YEAR YIELD BUT THOSE YIELDS SUPPORTED OR LET HIGHER BY THE QUARTERLY GDP NUMBERS THAT CAME THROUGH STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. THAT IS ALSO BOOSTING EXPECTATION FOR THE CENTRAL BANK TO RAISE RATES INTO THE NEXT YEAR.

ON THE OTHERS I DO THINGS, THE MORE DOVISHNESS IS COMING THROUGH IN NEW ZEALAND. WE HAD THE CENTRAL BANK RAISING RATES. INVESTORS SEEM TO BE MORE FOCUSED ON HOW RACE EXPECTATIONS ARE LOWER FOR NEXT YEAR. THAT IS WHY WE ARE SEEING QUITE A BIT OF WEAKNESS IN THE KIWI DOLLAR TODAY. ABEER: THANK YOU. THE BOND SPACE IS A BIG ONE FOR US TO WATCH OUT FOR. LET'S TURN TO THE OIL STORY IN THE REGION, AND PRICES AND BRENT ARE EXTENDING GAINS AS THE U.S.

AND IRAN EXCHANGE FRESH STRIKES, BRINGING THE STRAIGHT OF HORMUZ BACK TO THE CENTER OF THE CONFLICT. THE U.S. SAYS ITS LATEST STRIKES TARGETED DEFENSES, MARITIME ASSETS, AND MINING CAPABILITIES. TEHRAN RESPONDED WITH ATTACKS ACROSS THE REGION AND SAYS THE RENEWED FIGHTING HAS TIGHTENED ITS GRIP ON HORMUZ. LET'S UNPACK THOSE DEVELOPMENTS AND THE LATEST WITH ONUR ANT AND STEPHEN STAPCZYNSKI, BLOOMBERG'S ENERGY ASIA TEAM LEADER.

I WANT TO START WITH THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS. WE ARE BACK TO KINETIC WARFARE, NOTHING WE HAVEN'T SEEN BEFORE BUT NOT WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN MARCH. HOW DANGEROUS ARE THE LATEST ESCALATIONS OUT OF HERE? ONUR: PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION. AS YOU ALREADY POINTED OUT, THE U.S. ALREADY COMPLETED A MAJOR ROUND OF STRIKES TARGETING IRAN'S COASTAL AREAS AROUND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, HITTING PRIMARILY MARITIME ASSETS, RADAR INSTALLATIONS, AND MINE LAYING CAPABILITIES.

IRAN RETALIATED BY LAUNCHING A FRESH WAVE OF DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS ACROSS THE REGION, BAHRAIN AND JORDAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TO GO WAIT. SOME OF THOSE ATTACKS MAY BE UNDERWAY JUDGING BY THE ALERTS ISSUED BY THE BAHRAINI GOVERNMENT MINUTES BEFORE. WHAT THIS DOES IS IT ESTABLISHES A NEW CYCLE OF EVENTS THAT BASICALLY BREAKS THE RECENT LOWELL WE HAVE SEEN IN THE FIGHTING -- THE RECENT LULL WE HAVE SEEN IN THE FIGHTING.

WE ARE BACK TO POSSIBLY THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF U.S. STRIKES AND IRANIAN COUNTER STRIKES WITH NO VISIBLE DIPLOMATIC OFFRAMP AT PLAY. ABEER: DEFINITELY. STEPHEN, WHAT IS PHYSICALLY HAPPENING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ? WASHINGTON SAYS SHIPPING LANES ARE OPEN, IRAN SAYS ITS GRIP ON HORMUZ IS ACTUALLY TIGHTENING. BUT WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING ON THE GROUND? ARE WE STILL SEEING A RETURN TO SOME TRICKLE OF MOVEMENT IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ?

STEPHEN: YOU KNOW, IT HONESTLY IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WHAT IRAN AND THE U.S. ARE SAYING. OBVIOUSLY THE U.S. WANTS TO PUSH THEIR SIDE THAT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS OPEN, BUT NOT EXACTLY. OIL FLOWS THROUGH HORMUZ HAVE INCREASED, MOSTLY ON DARK VESSELS. THEY TURN OFF THEIR AIS TRANSPONDER TO GO THROUGH SO THEY ARE NOT DETECTED, THEN THEY COME BACK IN AND OUT, SORT OF SHUTTLING THAT OIL AND DOING A SHIP TO SHIP TRANSFER ON THE EASTERN SIDE.

IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY HOW MUCH IS GOING THROUGH. THE U.S. OFFICIALS SAY 8 MILLION TO 10 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OR GOING THROUGH. THAT WOULD PUT IT PRETTY CLOSE TO PREWAR LEVELS. GOLDMAN SAYS IT IS CLOSER TO 8 MILLION BARRELS A DAY. THE TRADERS WE SPOKE TO SET ABOUT 6 MILLION TO 8 MILLION BARRELS A DAY. BUT IT FLUCTUATES DEPENDING ON THE DAY. SO, WHILE WE HAVE SEEN AN UPTICK LAST WEEKEND OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, BECAUSE OF THE RECENT INCREASE IN ATTACKS TO SAUDI TANKERS AND ON THE SAME SIDE THE U.S.

HIT TWO IRANIAN VESSELS, YOU MIGHT SEE A PULLBACK IN PHYSICAL FOLLOWS. WHEN YOU LOOK AT HORMUZ, WE ARE NOT QUITE BACK TO NORMAL, BUT THERE IS SOME OIL FLOWING AND THAT DOES PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FOR THE MARKET. ABEER: ONUR, JUST FOLLOWING UP ON THAT, WE DON'T HAVE THE SAME LEVELS OF OIL FLOWING LIKE WE DID PREWAR, BUT WE HAVE A TRICKLE OF MOVEMENT, BETWEEN 6 MILLION AND 8 MILLION BARRELS. HOW DOES THAT AFFECT IRAN'S LEVERAGE OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ?

TO TOUCH ON YOUR POINT ABOUT A RETURN TO DIPLOMACY, HOW FAR-FETCHED IS THAT AT THIS POINT? ONUR: TWO ESSENTIAL POINTS, WHICH STEPHEN ALSO TOUCHED ON. THE DIPLOMATIC OFFRAMP SEEMS TO BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THE MOMENT. JUST HOURS AGO, TRUMP BASICALLY DISMISSED THE IDEA. HE SAID HE DOES NOT FEEL LIKE HE IS EAGER TO FORCE THE IRANIANS BACK TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE. ON THE OTHER HAND, HORMUZ ITSELF IS THE MAIN SOURCE OF LEVERAGE.

BOTH SIDES ARE TRYING TO PORTRAY A PICTURE WHERE THE REST OF THE WORLD BELIEVES THEY ARE IN CONTROL OF HORMUZ. THAT IS WHY WE HAVE SEEN THE U.S. ATTACKS TARGETING IRAN'S MINE LAYING CAPABILITIES, AND WE HAVE SEEN IRANIAN ATTACKS ON MARITIME SHIPPING AS RECENTLY AS YESTERDAY, INCLUDING THOSE TWO TANKERS THAT STEPHEN MENTIONED. THE POINT IS, NO ONE HAS TO PHYSICALLY CONTROL HORMUZ, BUT THEY NEED TO MAKE THE REST OF THE WORLD BELIEVE THEY CAN.

AND THE IMPORTANT QUESTION IS, WHO DO THE SHIPOWN