美伊冲突升级推高油价与美债收益率

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Today's trade, Christine, is is really showing what tensions in the Middle East and higher oil prices do across asset.

Absolutely, Tim. And we're seeing that most clearly really in the bond market, right? I mean, those yields skyrocketing to the highest levels that we've seen in almost two decades. And it's not just the US. It is a global story. And a lot of that reaction function really coming from what we're seeing in oil prices Brent back above key levels. So is WTI and really doesn't seem like there's any end in sight because we're getting fresh hostilities between the US and Iran.

So that's our focus for the first part of this hour. And for more we want to bring in Wendy Benjaminson. She's senior editor for Bloomberg News. She joins us from our Washington DC bureau. Wendy, President Trump said the strikes were in retaliation for Iran trying to put mines in the strait and for earlier attacks by the Islamic Republic on a military base. He warned of more attacks to come if Thrron responded. He said, quote, "If the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level."

He said this in a social media post just a little bit earlier today. It seems like I have lost track of how many times the president has threatened a a bigger and and bolder attack. And I and I wonder your reaction to this and and and sort of like the reaction out of the Middle East like is he going to follow through with these attacks? Well, it certainly looks that way given that this the hostility sort of renewed themselves on Sunday when the US noticed that the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, were setting up rocket launchers on an island that would shoot mines into the straight of Hormuz to stop shipping.

So, the US military took those rocket launchers out. Then Iran responded by hitting some target trying to hit some targets in of US targets in Jordan or in excuse me in somewhere another country in the Gulf, excuse me. And those missiles were intercepted. Now today we're the US is striking again and Iran says it will retaliate. So it looks like we're right back in the middle of this. And in terms of my initial reaction, I mean, part of this is this is we're we're striking an Iranian military that the president says no longer exists.

So, we don't, you know, we're sort of left to figure out, you know, what's left that were striking. There were explosions heard in the city of Bonder Abbas in Iran today. So, there's a lot of It looks like we're going to be back at it again. and right before the midterms. This is what Republican candidates are really clutching their pearls about right now.

Now, Wendy, as you mentioned, we're right back at it again, which means that we've climbed back down from this very situation uh just a few weeks and months before only to come back around. Do you see anything that's different this time that would lead all of us to believe that, you know, this is the period of escal deescalation being effectively over?

The short answer, Christine, is no. I mean, this is I think probably the person who most wants to find an offramp for this right now is Donald Trump himself. I mean, he's trying now with Treasury Secretary Scott Besson to do this economic squeeze. Um, so far most of the world has been like, "Yeah, okay." You know, we're not we're not going to play ball on this. This isn't our war. Um, we so far the US has sanctioned the branches of an Egyptian bank that works in the UAE and does some business with Iran.

We're expecting another bank to be sanctioned this week. But this is hardly the, and I'm quoting Bessant here, financial violence that he proposed. And so in lie of financial violence, we're actually now getting actual violence um again from the United States. And Iran is saying that um look, if you want to go back to the memorandum of understanding that we signed in June that Trump very, you know, um dramatically signed at Versailles, um that they would be fine with that.

The US has said they're no longer fine with that. It wasn't a great deal for the United States in the first place. as you might remember the reporting then was that that gave a lot back to Iran. Um and so that seems to be dead in the water. I we just don't see an easy offramp to the six-month war so far.

But Wendy and and I think what's notable here is we've we've spent this entire conversation. Yes, we've mentioned the straight of hormuz and that is what is what is that is at issue. But if we think back to the whole reason that the US and Israel started this war was because of the nuclear material in Iran.

Yeah.

And the idea of Iran not building and not getting a nuclear weapon is that we're not even talking about that right now.

Well, to be fair, Donald Trump is talking about it as the core reason that that the US is involved in this war. You know, Israel sort of gone back to worrying about its own problems, it seems. Um, but the he keeps saying he's doing this so Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon. I mean, I'm sure they are distracted from building a nuclear weapon and the US has bombed both in June and June of last year and the current war that began in February.

Um, they have bombed Iran nuclear sites, but the uranium is still there. It's buried under the ground. um we when this all calms down, there's nothing to stop Iran from you know going on with their nuclear program. But unlike what the Israeli government says, the the US and global intelligence experts do not believe that Iran is anywhere near having the capability to build a nuclear weapon. I mean, they may in years, but it is not the imminent threat that Israel um and the Trump administration say it is.

Yeah. Well, Wendy, it seems like, you know, we're gearing up for an extended confrontation that involves both military strikes and also economic pressure. Where do you think the funding is going to come for all of this?

The funding for it, is that what you said? I'm sorry.

Yes, that's right. How How are we paying for all of this?

That's a very good question. Um, so far, Congress has been okay with, you know, passing this spending. Um they have asked for 70 I think it was 70 billion dollar more for the war. They are really ramping up their contracts. The US is with military uh military contractors the people who can replenish the missiles and drones that we have used in this war and also given to Ukraine for its war against Russia. Um so there's a lot of spending going on.

It's a lot of deficit spending. Um and you know We keep we keep spending money we don't have

and that's probably a good segue to the bond market which we're going to get to in just a second. Uh we should note a redhead cross in the Bloomberg terminal. The White House passes a stop gap funding bill to avoid a government shutdown. Once again the White House passing a stop gap funding bill to avoid a government shutdown. A big thank you to Wendy Benjaminson, senior editor for Bloomberg News down there in our Washington DC bureau.

The House passes a stop gap funding bill to avoid government shutdown. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2:00 to 5:00 Eastern.

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube. Now, let's take a look at what's happening in energy markets and how that is all changing as a result of the US Iran war, which continues. We'v

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