油价飙升推高全球债市收益率，中东局势与日本加息预期共振

LIZZY: LIVE FROM LONDON THIS IS "BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE." THE BOND ROUT DEEPENS, GLOBAL YIELDS CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN ALMOST 20 YEARS AS RISING OIL PRICES FUEL INFLATION CONCERNS. RUSSIA'S FINANCE MINISTER ATTENDS A G20 MEETING IN THE FIRST TIME -- IN PERSON FOR THE FIRST TIME. NARRATIVE MODI URGES AN END TO THE CONFLICT. ANTHROPIC SIGNS A DEAL WITH AN NVIDIA BACKED CLOUD PROVIDER. WE WILL BRING YOU SOME OF OUR EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW.

THOSE ARE YOUR HEADLINES AND HERE IS THE PICTURE AND MARKETS THIS TUESDAY. OIL EXTENDING ITS ADVANCE UP FOR A SECOND SESSION TO 91.53 PER BARREL. THESE TENSIONS REVIVE RISKS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. AND THEN CONCERNS ABOUT GLOBAL BONDS. USING THE 30 YEAR YIELD AT 5.27, THEY ENTER SEPTEMBER ON THE WORST STRETCH SINCE 2006. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON THE YEN. 185 .27. SCOTT BESSENT REPORTEDLY TOLD THE JAPANESE FINANCE MINISTER THAT MORE HIKES ARE NEEDED.

LET'S FLIP TO THE CROSS ACCEPT -- CROSS ASSET PICTURE. NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF SPILL OVER THE BROADER STOCK MARKETS. THE MSCI ASIA PACIFIC INDEX IS UP AND FUTURES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ATLANTIC TREADING WATER. LET'S LOOK AT RISK EVENTS ON THE AGENDA TODAY. 10:00 A.M. LONDON TIME, THE LATEST EURO AREA INFLATION DATA COME OF THE LAST RELEASE FOR -- BEFORE THE NEXT ECB MEETING. IT'S EXPECTED TO JUMP TO 3.3% ON HIGHER ENERGY COSTS.

IT MIGHT CEMENT THE CASE FOR A SEPTEMBER HIKE. AND THEN AT 3:00 P.M. LONDON TIME, JOLTS DATA FROM U.S., AND THEN LATER EARNINGS FROM DELL. LET'S SET YOU UP FOR THE DAY AHEAD. WE BEGIN WITH GLOBAL BOND YIELDS CONTINUING THE CLIMB TO MULTI-DECADE HIGHS, THE U.S. 13 YEARS YIELD SET FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH SINCE 2006 AS OIL PRICES RISE IN INFLATION FEARS PROMPTED TRADERS TO BOOST BETS ON A FED HIKE THIS MONTH. LET'S BRING IN OUR STRATEGIST.

GOOD MORNING. FISCAL PRESSURES, FED HIKE REPRICING THE OIL STORY. WHAT'S THE MAIN DRIVER OF HIGHER YIELDS, WHICH DON'T SEEM TO BE WEIGHING ON EQUITIES THIS MORNING. VEN: GOOD MORNING. YOU NAME IT, WE'VE GOT IT. ANYTHING YOU COULD THINK OF, ACTING IN FAVOR OF HIGHER YIELDS. WE'VE GOT THE MIDDLE EAST SKIRMISHES LAST NIGHT AND THEN THE JGB 10 YEAR YIELD ABOVE 3% AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, NATURAL GAS PRICES ABOVE 70 EUROS PER CONTRACT AND THAT HASN'T HAPPENED SINCE MARCH.

YOU'VE GOT PLENTY OF DRIVERS. YOU HAVE KEVIN WARSH SOUNDING HAWKISH ON FRIDAY. IT MEANS HIGHER YIELDS BUT AT THE MOMENT THE PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE MORE ON THE FRONT END OF THE CURVE BECAUSE THERE'S AN IMMEDIACY TO THE INFLATIONARY FALLOUT YOU NEED TO FACTOR IN FROM THE HIGHER OIL AND GAS PRICES. ANNA: -- LIZZY: IT'S NOT JUST A TREASURY STORY, WE ARE SEEING 10 YEAR JGB YIELDS ABOVE 10% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1996. THAT AS WE ARE SEEING REPORTING THAT SCOTT BESSENT HAS TOLD THE JAPANESE FINANCE MINISTER THAT THE BOJ NEEDS TO RAISE RATES.

IF YOU DO HAVE A SEPTEMBER HIKE, WILL IT ENOUGH TO REASSURE LONG AND INVESTORS OR WILL THE BOJ NEED TO SIGNAL BACK TO BACK HEIGHT -- BACK TO BACK HIKES? VEN: THEY NEED TO SIGNAL BACK TO BACK HIKES BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT NEAR NEUTRAL. EVEN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES WOULD PUT IT AT 150 IN JAPAN. THEY NEED TO SIGNAL BACK TO BACK HIKES AND THAT WILL REVIVE COMPETENCE -- CONFIDENCE IN THE MARKETS. IT FEELS LIKE THE BANK OF JAPAN MONETARY POLICY IS RUN BY THE FINANCE MINISTRY AND SCOTT BESSENT AND NOT THE BOJ.

A COUPLE MONTHS AGO, THERE WAS TALKS OF BOJ RATE HIKE BUT NOW THE PRESSURE IS BUILDING. THEY'VE BEEN BEHIND THE CURVE AND THEY NEED TO DO A LOT MORE. IT'S ALL TRANSMITTING INTO THE OTHER CURVES AS WELL. IF YOU SWAP OUT THE JGB 10 YEAR YIELD INTO U.S. DOLLARS YOU GET THE 10 BASIS POINT PICK UP AND THAT IMPARTS PRESSURE ON TREASURIES AND EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN BAR -- SOVEREIGN BONDS. THE BOJ CLEARLY NEEDS TO BE DOING MORE.

LIZZY: WE WILL BE LOOKING OUT FOR THAT SPEECH TOMORROW MAYBE FOR CLUES ABOUT THE BACK-TO-BACK TO BACK RATE HIKES. FOR NOW, THANK YOU. WE UNDERSTAND ANTHROPIC HAS AGREED TO A $35 BILLION COMPUTING DEAL WITH A CLOUD PROVIDER BACKED BY NVIDIA. IT'S PART OF AN EFFORT TO QUICKLY EXPAND ANTHROPIC SAY I CAPACITY. WE CAN GET MORE WITH THEIR SENIOR STRATEGIST. VERY BASICALLY, WHY IS THIS SO SIGNIFICANT?

BECAUSE ANTHROPIC NEEDS SO MUCH COMPUTER POWER AND THEY ARE LOOKING TO GET IT ANYWHERE THEY CAN AND THIS IS ANOTHER CLOUD PROVIDER AND IT'S GOT BACKING IN RELATION TO OTHERS, BACKED BY NVIDIA. THEY ARE CREATING THE SENSORS FOR THE GOOGLE SYSTEM. ALL OF THE LEADERS IN THIS SPACE REQUIRE MORE COMPUTER POWER. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THIS, IT'S SHOWING ANTHROPIC'S DEMAND FOR COMPUTER POWER PROBABLY ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF HOW WE ARE LIKELY TO NEED TO THE IPO TO RAISE MONEY.

LIZZY: BEFORE ANYONE SAYS THIS SOUNDS A CIRCULAR, NVIDIA IS INVESTING $3.5 BILLION IN MEDIATEK.

THIS IS NOT CIRCULAR BECAUSE THEY DID THEIR OWN BUSINESS AND WE DO OUR OWN BUSINESS. MEDIATECH IS ALREADY PROFITABLE AND SUCCESSFUL, THEY ARE THE WORLD'S BEST SOC MAKER, THEY MAKE MORE THAN ANY COMPANY IN THE WORLD. IT'S A PLEASURE TO INVEST IN A TECHNOLOGY COMPANY IN TAIWAN AND IN MEDIATEK. THE INVESTMENT IS COUNTING -- GROUNDED IN A DEEP PARTNERSHIP. LIZZY: HE'S ADAMANT IT'S NOT CIRCULAR FINANCING. WHAT SHOULD INVESTORS KNOW ABOUT MEDIATEK?

NEIL: IT'S INTERESTING. YOU HAVE JENSEN SAYING SOC, THAT'S SYSTEM ON CHIPS, BRINGING THE COMPUTER POWER TO THE EDGE, THEY ARE THE LARGEST MAKER OF THESE TOPS -- TYPES OF CHIPS FOR 5G. A REALLY GOOD TECHNOLOGY COMPANY BRINGING POWER AND SPEED TO THE NETWORKS AS YOU TAKE IT AWAY FROM DATA CENTERS INTO DEVICES. THERE'S A

GOOD MORNING THE LATEST STRIKES, WE REPORTED ON THOSE. IRAN WAS REPORTEDLY REPAIRING TO LAUNCH MINES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. WE ARE SEEING A RETURN TO SOME KIND OF MILITARY ESCALATION AND PRESIDENT TRUMP CALLED THIS A RELATIVELY LITTLE WAR. HE AFFIRMED THE U.S. HAS PLENTY OF AMMUNITION, SAYING THE U.S. HAS ENOUGH ELITE WEAPONS. THEN WE HAVE A HAPPENING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ THE LATEST FROM THE U.K. NAVY, SAYING A VESSEL WAS HIT BY UNIDENTIFIED PROJECTILES, HAPPENING OVERNIGHT YESTERDAY.

WE ARE SEEING A TRICKLE OF MOVEMENT IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ GETTING AFFECTED. THIS LEAVES THE QUESTION OF DIPLOMACY OUT IN THE OPEN. WHEN DOES DIPLOMACY RETURN? THE IRAN SIDE IS ADAMANT THEY CAN RETURN TO THE TABLE AND THE FOREIGN MINISTER SAID IRAN IS WILLING TO COME BACK TO DIPLOMACY IF THE U.S. DOES NOT CONTINUE WITH ITS PRESSURING CAMPAIGN. AND THE SENIOR FIGURE THAT'S AN ADVISOR TO THE UAE CAME OUT YESTERDAY AND SAID THE STANCE IN THE REGION OF KNOW FULL WAR ALSO KNOW FULL PEACE IS NOT SUSTAINABLE AND A RETURN TO DIPLOMACY IS ESSENTIAL.

OF COURSE WE DON'T HAVE ANY CLARITY OR SIGNAL TO SUGGEST EITHER SIDE IS GOING BACK WIDER NEGOTIATIONS. IN THE MIDST OF THIS, THE MOST IMPORTANT ELEMENT IS ENERGY PRICES AND IT LOOKS LIKE TRADERS ARE MORE AND MORE STARTING TO REACT TO WHAT'S HAPPENING ON THE GROUND RATHER THAN GEOPOLITICAL HEADLINES WE'VE BEEN HEARING FOR THE PAST SIX MONTHS. YOU ARE SEEING OIL MARKETS MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THOSE VESSELS MOVING OR NOT MOVING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

BRENT CRUDE PRICES ARE UP A SECOND STRAIGHT DAY AND AT ELEVATED NUMBERS. LIZZY: 91.40 IS WHERE WE CURRENTLY STAND. THANK YOU. WE ARE SEEING CORRELATION BETWEEN OIL AND GLOBAL BONDS SLIDING AS MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS LEFT OIL AND FUEL INFLATION CONCERNS. WE WILL DISCUSS MORE ON MARKET IMPLICATIONS WITH OUR GUEST LATER. FIRST, A RARE HIGH-LEVEL MEETING TAKES PLACE BETWEEN THE RUSSIAN FINANCE MINISTER AND U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY.

WE WILL GET THE DETAILS NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ LIZZY: WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE. EUROPEAN OFFICIALS INCLUDING GERMANY'S FINANCE MINISTER WERE ANGERED THE -- AT THE PRESENCE OF RUSSIA'S FINANCE MINISTER. RUSSIA CONFIRM SCOTT BESSENT AND THE RUSSIAN MINISTER MET ON THE SIDELINES OF THE GATHERING. LET'S GET CONTEXT. WE WILL BRING IN OUR CORRESPONDENT OLIVER CROOK. IT IS HARD TO OVERSTATE HOW RARE THIS HIGH-LEVEL CONTACT IS BETWEEN THE U.S.

AND RUSSIAN ECONOMIC TEAMS. TELL US WHAT DIPLOMATIC IMPLICATIONS ARE. OLIVER: THIS IS THE FIRST TIME YOU HAVE HAD THE PARTICIPATION OF THE RUSSIAN FIN