美伊冲突致霍尔木兹海峡原油出口降至战前2/3-3/4

E CHOKEHOLD REMAINS. FOR THE PBS NEWS HOUR I'M LIZ LANDERS. AMNA: FOR A PERSPECTIVE ON THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WAR WITH IRAN, WE GET TWO VIEWS. RETIRED REAR ADMIRAL MARK MONTGOMERY SPENT 32 YEARS IN THE U.S. NAVY, SERVED ON THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL STAFF, AND LATER WAS POLICY DIRECTOR ON THE REPUBLICAN STAFF OF THE SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE. HE'S NOW A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES.

AND MICHELLE WIESE BOCKMANN IS AN ANALYST AT WINDWARD, A LONDON-BASED MARITIME INTELLIGENCE COMPANY. WELCOME TO YOU BOTH. ADMIRAL I WILL BEGIN WITH YOU AND THE U.S. BOMBING OF THE ISLAND BY THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IT IS NOT THE FIRST TIME THE U.S. HAS TARGETED THIS ISLAND ANOTHER FORCES IN IRAN. DO WE KNOW WHAT IMPACTS THOSE STRIKES HAVE HAD ON IRAN'S ABILITY TO THREATEN SHIPPING PASSING THROUGH THE STRATA FOR MOST?

I DO THINK THEY HAVE PROBABLY BEEN HELPFUL. WHAT THEY DO IS TAKE OUT RADAR AND OTHER BEGINNING SENSORS SO THE IRGC HAS LESS ACCURATE TARGETING AND LESS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS OF THE MOVEMENT OF SHIPS WHEN THEY ARE NOT USING AUTOMATIC INDICATION SYSTEMS. VERY SPECIFICALLY LAST NIGHT THEY DESTROYED WHAT I SUSPECT WERE ROCKET LAUNCHERS WHICH HAVE BEEN KNOWN IN 2025, THE IRGC USED THEM TO LAUNCH FLOATING MINES IN AN EXERCISE BUT THEY COULDN'T LAUNCH FLOATING MINDS OR EVEN SUBMERGED MINES THAT HAVE INFLUENCE OR ACOUSTIC SENSORS.

THIS WAS AN EFFORT TO PREVENT IRAN FROM MINING THE SOUTHERN TRANSIT LANE CLOSEST TO OMAN RIGHT NOW.

WHEN IT COMES TO HOW MUCH OIL MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE REGION WE KNOW BEFORE THE WAR IT WAS OVER 20 MILLION BARRELS MOVED OUT LARGELY WE KNOW THERE ARE A NUMBER OF ROUTES THROUGH THE GULF REGION WE DID HEAR THE PRESIDENT SAY ON AVERAGE NOW THEY ARE GETTING OUT 30 SHIPS AND NIGHT. WHAT IS YOUR UNDERSTANDING ABOUT HOW MUCH OIL IS MAKING IT OUT OF THE GULF TODAY?

IF YOU LOOK AT CRUDE ONLY, IT IS BETWEEN TWO THIRDS AND THREE QUARTERS OF PREWAR LEVELS. IF YOU ADD THE EXTRA OIL BEING DIVERTED TO THE RED SEA, YOU COULD SEE QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT HAS NOW SCALED UP AND IS GETTING OUT THROUGH OTHER PIPELINES AS WELL AS THROUGH THAT SOUTHERN CORRIDOR THROUGH OMAN WHICH THE PRESIDENT WAS REFERENCING. THE AVERAGE OF 30 VESSELS PER DAY HE DIDN'T SAY OVER WHAT PERIOD, BUT THEY ARE BEING DONE DARK SO IT IS HARD TO GET VISIBILITY.

FROM A PRELIMINARY PERSPECTIVE, THOSE NUMBERS INCREASE OVER TIME AS THEY ARRIVE AT THE DESTINATION PORTS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PUT PRECISE FIGURES ON THEM. AMNA: WE KNOW IRAN'S ABILITY TO THREATEN THOSE SHIPPING LANES IS DIMINISHED BUT KNOCK ON ENTIRELY. WHAT COMPANIES ARE WILLING TO MAKE THAT TRANSIT THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ?

THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A VERY HIGH-RISK PROPOSITION. ON FRIDAY THEY ARE TAKING IN OF THE SHUTTLE RUNS IN AND OUT OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITH 27 TIMES THE BREAKEVEN LEVEL AND IF YOU ARE CHARTERED FOR 30 DAYS YOU GET BACK A QUARTER, BUT THERE ARE SHIPOWNERS THAT ARE PREPARED TO SEND THEIR VESSELS IN BECAUSE OF THE ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF MONEY THAT CAN