美伊冲突致油价回升，G20财长会议聚焦通胀与地缘风险

LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C., THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" WITH JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. JOE: THE STRIKE'S RESUME. WELCOME TO THE MONEY ADDITION IS THE U.S. AND IRAN EXCHANGE FIRE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A MONTH. PRESIDENT TRUMP IS THREATENING MORE. I'M JOE MATHIEU ALONGSIDE KAILEY LEINZ IN WASHINGTON. WELCOME BACK. IT'S ALSO BEEN ABOUT A MONTH SINCE WE HAVE SEEN OIL PRICES AS HIGH AS THEY ARE TODAY. KAILEY: BRENT CRUDE BACK ABOVE $90 A BARREL.

HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH THAT. THE EXPECTATION IS THIS GOOD ONCE AGAIN FUEL INFLATIONARY FORCES AT THE SAME TIME KEVIN WARSH SAYS THE FED IS GOING TO FIGHT INFLATION. I IMAGINE THAT WILL BE A SUBJECT OF DISCUSSION AT THE G20 FINANCE MINISTERS MEETING TAKING PLACE NOW IN ASHEVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA. WHAT A TIME FOR THEM TO BE GETTING TOGETHER. JOE: WITHOUT THE FULL COMPLEMENT OF THE FULL PRESS. I WONDERED IF YOU WATCHED JACKSON HOLE ON YOUR DAY OFF.

I KNEW YOU WERE. THE MARKET REACTION HAS BEEN INTERESTING. WE ARE AT THE TAIL END OF EARNINGS REPORTING SEASON BUT WE HAVE BIG ONES WITH BROADCOM AND ADELE THIS WEEK -- AND DELL THIS WEEK. KAILEY: THE U.S. GOING AFTER IRANIAN FORCES THEY SAY WERE GETTING SET TO LAY MINES IN THE STRAIT. IRAN TRYING TO ATTACK AIR FORCES IN JORDAN. THE PRESIDENT IS VOWING A RESPONSE TO THAT SO THERE COULD BE MORE ESCALATION. IT IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME.

THE PRESIDENT SAID MORE OIL IS COMING FROM VENEZUELA. THAT IS LIKELY NOT GOING TO BE IMMEDIATE OR DO ANYTHING TO STEM THE CURRENT UPWARD PRESSURE IN PRICES WE ARE SEEING NOW. JOE: NOT WHEN IT COMES TO GAS AND DIESEL. THE PRESIDENT TALKS ABOUT THEM BUILDING NEW REFINERIES, WHICH IS WHAT THAT WOULD REQUIRE. WE HAVE A LOT OF CRUDE ON THE WAY, MAYBE. WE WILL TALK ABOUT THIS THROUGHOUT THE HOUR. WE GET AN UPDATE FROM TYLER KENDALL.

GENERAL BEN HODGES WILL BE WITH US FOR THE STRATEGY WE ARE DISCUSSING NOW. KAILEY: BEFORE WE TALK ABOUT THE STRATEGY, LET'S TALK ABOUT MARKET REACTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST EVERYWHERE ELSE. WE TURNED TO CHARLIE PELLETT. CHARLIE: THANK YOU VERY MUCH. WE HAVE TO BEGIN WITH CRUDE. WTI, $85 75 CENTS A BARREL. UP BY 220%. WE HAVE BRENT TRADING BACK ABOVE $90 A BARREL. $90.55 A BARREL, UP BY 2.8%. THAT FLARE UP AND YOU POLITICAL RISK SENDING STOCKS AND BONDS LOWER AS OIL CLAIMS.

THE S&P DOWN 36. 7674 ON THE S&P 500 INDEX, A DROP OF .5%. THE DOW WAS DOWN 342, .6%. NASDAQ WILL PROVIDE 91. THE DECLINE RIGHT NOW JUST ABOUT .3%. THE PHILADELPHIA STOCK EXCHANGE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX UP BY .3% AS NVIDIA ADVANCES 1.2%. TWO-YEAR AT FOUR .34%. 10-YEAR, 4.75%. VIX HOLDING JUST ABOVE 15. GOLD IS DOWN $21 AN OUNCE. DOWN .5%. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE, $85.72 A BARREL. OIL HIGHER AS TENSIONS SPIKE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

THE U.S. AND IRAN EXCHANGING STRIKES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A MONTH. THE OIL SUPER MAJORS ALL MOVING HIGHER TODAY. EXXON MOBIL UP ONE POINT 5%. CHEVRON UP 1.3 PERCENT. CONOCOPHILLIPS UP I JUST ABOUT 1.1%. STOCKS LOWER, S&P AGAIN DOWN .5%. SUBSCRIBE TO BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW WHEREVER YOU GET YOUR PODCAST. I'M CHARLIE PELLETT. THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. KAILEY: CHARLIE PELLETT, THANK YOU SO MUCH. WE LOOK AT THE UPWARD PRESSURE IN OIL TODAY.

BRENT AND DEBBIE TI UP FOR THE BETTER PART OF 3% -- WTI UP DUE TO THE SKIRMISHES THAT HAVE SURFACED AROUND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THE U.S. GOING AFTER IRAN, WHICH WAS GETTING READY TO LAY MINES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IRAN THEN RETALIATING AGAINST U.S. FORCES IN JORDAN AND PRESIDENT TRUMP VOWS THERE WILL BE A RESPONSE. WHAT FORM THAT TAKES IS AN OPEN QUESTION AS ARE MANY OPEN QUESTION TO SIX MONTHS INTO THE CONFLICT, STILL WITH THE PRESIDENT THINK THE PURSUIT IS THE SAME.

IRAN NOT HAVING A NUCLEAR WEAPON AS HE SAID RECENTLY ON FOX NEWS. PRESIDENT TRUMP: NUMEROUS PEOPLE SAID YOU HAVE TO DO IT. DO YOU THINK IT'S OK FOR IRAN TO HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON? THAT IS MASSIVE DESTRUCTION. TAKE WITH YOU SEE AND MULTIPLY IT TIMES 100. EVERYBODY SAYS NO. I HAVE HAD PEOPLE ASKING ME, DEBATING ME ON THE QUESTION. MOST PEOPLE ARE ABSOLUTELY FINE WITH IT. THEY WERE FINE WITH VENEZUELA. LOOK HOW THAT HAS TURNED OUT SO GREAT.

JOE: WE POINT OUR QUESTIONS TO TYLER KENDALL, OUR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT WHO'S BEEN COVERING THIS ALONG WITH EVERYTHING HAPPENING IN VENEZUELA AHEAD OF OUR CONVERSATION WITH GENERAL BEN HODGES WAS STANDING BY TO SHARE SOME WISDOM WITH US. I KNOW WE ARE ALL ASKING THE SAME QUESTIONS, BEGINNING WITH WHETHER THIS IS JUST THE LATEST SKIRMISH OR THE BEGINNING OR RESUMPTION OF HEAVY MILITARY ACTIVITY. TYLER: WE HAVE SEEN THIS CYCLE BEFORE BUT IT COMES AFTER A MONTH OF ESSENTIALLY KINETIC ACTION BEING PAUSED.

WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES WE GOT NEW HEADLINES FROM IRANIAN STATE MEDIA WITH THE IRGC CLAIMING TO HAVE DOWNED A U.S. DRONE OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE TIT-FOR-TAT KINETIC ACTION IS CONTINUING. THIS CAME AND STARTED WITH CENTCOM CONFIRMING THEY HAD TARGETED THESE IRANIAN ROCKET LAUNCHERS THAT WERE GOING TO LAY MINES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AFTER JUST LAST WEEK WE HEARD FROM THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CLAIMING ALL THE MINES HAD BEEN DETONATED AND REMOVED AND THE PRESIDENT ISSUED A WARNING, SAYING IF THERE ARE ANY MIND LAYING BOATS WERE ATTEMPTS TO LAY MINES, THE U.S.

WOULD TARGET THOSE ASSETS. THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF THAT BUT IT DOES MARK A DIFFERENCE COMPARATIVELY TO THE ECONOMIC PRESSURE WE SAW THE U.S. ROLLOUT LAST WEEK. AS I REPORTING INDICATED, NOT TOO MANY TRADING PARTNERS OF IRAN ARE TAKING STEPS TO CUT OFF FINANCIAL LIFELINES. ACCORDING TO THE TREASURY SECRETARY, WE SHOULD EXPECT SANCTIONS LATER THIS WEEK. KAILEY: WE WILL SEE IF WE GET INSIDE IS THE TREASURY SECRETARY AND FED CHAIR ARE AT FINANCE MINISTERS MEETING IN NORTH CAROLINA.

I WOULD LIKE TO ASK ABOUT VENEZUELA. THE MIDDLE EAST HAS DRIVEN THE OIL PRICES HIGHER BUT THE PRESIDENT SAYS IT WILL COME DOWN SOON BECAUSE THE U.S. IS GOING TO BE IN CONTROL OF 65 BILLION BARRELS WHERE THE VENEZUELAN ENERGY RESOURCES. HOW QUICKLY WILL THAT REALISTICALLY MATERIALIZE? WHAT DON'T WE KNOW ABOUT THIS PLAN? TYLER: THAT IS THE BIG QUESTION CONSIDERING THE BACKDROP OF THE DEAL IS VENEZUELA'S OIL INDUSTRY HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO RAMP UP IN THE MONTHS SINCE NICOLAS MADURO'S OUSTER.

DATA ANALYST BY BLOOMBERG SHOWS LAST MONTH VENEZUELA WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE ABOUT 1.1 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY, WHICH IS MUCH BELOW WHAT THEIR LEVELS WERE LIKE DURING THE PEAK OF THEIR INFRASTRUCTURE BEING ATTACKED. ANALYST HAVE DIFFERENT SORTS OF ESTIMATES FOR HOW LONG YOU COULD TAKE THEM TO GET BACK UP TO PEAK PRODUCTION. IT SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND A DECADE. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH THE SURGEON INVESTMENT COULD HELP.

THIS IS AN UNPRECEDENTED DEAL. WE HAVE A LOT OF QUESTIONS HERE. OUR REPORTING INDICATED THE U.S. IS SET TO TAKE A STAKE IN A PRIVATE COMPANY THAT WILL THEN BE GIVEN THESE 100 YEAR LEASES FOR 17 STRATEGIC OIL FIELDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR 65 BILLION BARRELS OF KNOWN RESERVES. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO FIGURE OUT MORE DETAILS OF HOW THIS IS STRUCTURED, EXACTLY WHAT THE U.S. IS GOING TO HAVE IN TERMS OF AN EQUITY STAKE AND HOW MUCH OIL THE U.S.

WILL BE ABLE TO PURCHASE AT COST. THAT IS A CRITICAL PART OF THIS DEAL FOR THE ADMINISTRATION. THAT'S AS OIL WILL BE USED TO REFILL THE STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE QUICKLY. THIS IS BEING STRUCTURED UNDER THE PENTAGON FOR NATIONAL SECURITY PURPOSES AND THAT WILL BE A KEY REASON YOU HEAR FROM THE ADMINISTRATION ABOUT THE LEGALITY BEHIND THIS DEAL. JOE: IT IS DIFFICULT TO CONNECT THE DOTS BETWEEN THIS DEAL AND GAS PRICES BEING LOWER.

THE REFINING BOTTLENECK STILL EXISTS EVEN IF WE ARE BRINGING A LOT MORE CRUDE. IT WOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED IF WE BROUGHT MORE CRUDE FROM VENEZUELA, RIGHT? TYLER: IT TAKES A LONG TIME FOR THE OIL TO MOVE THROUGH THE SYSTEM, BE REFINED. THERE WILL BE THAT LAG, PLUS INDEPENDENT GAS STATION OWNERS SET THEIR OWN PRICES FOR THE PRICES WE PAY AT THE PUMP AND THEY HAVE TO THINK ABOUT THE MARGIN AND WHERE THEY BOUGHT THE SUPPLY WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WHAT HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK FROM THE INDUSTRY TO PRESIDENT TRUMP'S CLAIMS, INCLUDING ALLEGED PRICE GOU

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