美联储主席沃什首秀杰克逊霍尔：通胀未降则需行动，市场押注9月加息概率约五成

THIS IS "BALANCE," LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C.

WE MUST BE CONFIDENT THAT UNDERLYING INFLATION IS MOVING TO OUR OBJECTIVE. CLEARLY AND AT SUFFICIENT SPEED. OTHERWISE, WE HAVE WORK TO DO. THAT IS OUR JOB. THAT IS OUR MANDATE AND ARE CHARGE TO KEEP. -- OUR CHARGE TO KEEP.

FRESH REACTION TO KEVIN WARSH'S JACKSON HOLE ADDRESS TODAY. WHAT HE IS SIGNALING ABOUT PRESENT INFLATION AND WHAT THE FED MAY NEED TO DO ABOUT IT. PLUS, PRESIDENT TRUMP SHARING AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR MESSAGE TODAY ON THE SIXTH MONTH OF THE ONGOING WAR IN IRAN. WE DISCUSS THAT AND A LOT MORE. PLUS, LAND MAN IN VENEZUELA. NEW DETAILS ABOUT A MAJOR PLAN TO EXPAND U.S. INTERESTS IN THE LATIN AMERICAN OIL MARKETS, AND THE AMERICAN COMPANY AT THE CENTER OF IT.

FROM BLOOMBERG'S WASHINGTON, D.C. STUDIOS TO OUR TV AND RADIO AUDIENCES WORLDWIDE, WELCOME TO "BALANCE OF POWER."

WE BEGIN TONIGHT IN JACKSON HOLE, WYOMING, WHERE FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR KEVIN WARSH DELIVERED HIS FIRST ADDRESS AT THE EVENT SINCE TAKING THE HELMET. WARSH REITERATED THE FED IS FOCUSED ON BRINGING INFLATION DOWN TO TARGET AN INTEREST RATES ARE THE PREDOMINANT TOOL FOR THE CENTRAL BANK TO ACHIEVE ITS MANDATE. HE WENT ON TO MAKE CLEAR THAT RECENT DATA WAS NOT ENTIRELY ENCOURAGING, LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR A POTENTIAL RATE HIKE IN THE COMING MONTHS.

THE FED IS A DECISION-MAKING AGENT. WE MAKE CHOICES AMID UNCERTAINTY, AND THE DATA UPON WHICH WE DRAW MUST BE RELEVANT, CONTEMPORANEOUS, ACCURATE, AND AS ACTIONABLE AS POSSIBLE. THE OBJECTIVE OF 2%, AS MEASURED BY THE PCE PRICE INDEX, IS A FIRM FIXED TARGET. ACHIEVING BOTH SIDES OF OUR MANDATE OVER THE MEDIUM TERM IS NOT AN EITHER/OR OR PROPOSITION.

JOINING US FROM JACKSON HOLE IS BLOOMBERG'S MICHAEL MCCABE. THE FED CHAIR STOPPED SHORT OF SIGNALING HE WOULD SUPPORT A RATE HIKE COME SEPTEMBER. WHAT IS HAPPENING BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THAT COULD MOVE THE NEEDLE WHEN IT COMES TO POLICY? MICHAEL: THE BIGGEST THING IS THE CPI AND PPI COMING UP ON THE 12TH OF SEPTEMBER. THE JOB NEWS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO BE BAD NEWS IF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS NOT CHANGED. THE REAL QUESTION IS INFLATION.

IF WE GET AN INFLATION REPORT THAT DOES NOT SHOW PROGRESS, THAN IT WOULD BE VERY HARD FOR KEVIN WARSH TO MAKE THE CASE THAT THEY NEED TO WAIT. THE MARKETS ARE GOING TO START BASED ON WHAT WE SEE WITH CPI PRICING IN CUTS OR NOT. HE'S GOING TO BE UNDER A LOT OF PRESSURE TO DELIVER IF THAT IS INDEED THE CASE AND WE GET SOME RISE IN THE INFLATION NUMBERS. JOE: WE HAVE NOT HEARD ANY SOUR GRAPES FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP TODAY UNLESS YOU SAW SOMETHING ON TRUTH SOCIAL THAT I MISSED.

HOW IS THE PERFORMANCE GOING AT JACKSON HOLE? HOW DID HE HELP HIS REPUTATION TODAY? MICHAEL: EVERYBODY AGREED THAT WHAT HE DID WAS WHAT HE NEEDED TO DO. HE CAME IN WITH QUESTIONS OF CREDIBILITY HANGING OVER HIS CHAIRMANSHIP, AND HE JUST STARTED. BASICALLY HE SAID THE THINGS YOU PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE SAID EARLIER. HE DOES NOT WANT TO DO FORWARD GUIDANCE, BUT THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WHAT HE SAID TODAY AND FORWARD GUIDANCE.

HE WAS NOT SAYING WE ARE GOING TO DO SOMETHING AT A CERTAIN TIME OR IN A CERTAIN SITUATION, HE JUST SAID THAT IF INFLATION DOES NOT COME DOWN, THAT IS OUR JOB, SO WE HAVE TO ACT. HE ALSO CHECKED THE BOX ON INTEREST RATES BEING IMPORTANT, BECAUSE HE DODGED THAT QUESTION AT THE LAST FED MEETING. HE TALKED ABOUT THE PCE BEING THE INDEX THEY FOLLOW, WHICH RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT. IN POLITICAL TERMS, YOU WOULD SAY THIS IS A RESET SPEECH, AND HE SEEMS TO HAVE ACCOMPLISHED THAT.

JOE ASKED ABOUT PRESIDENT TRUMP, BUT WHAT ABOUT TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT? HOW DID WE SEE WHAT HE HAS DONE AND SIGNALED IN TERMS OF THE TREASURY MARKET LINGER OVER WARSH'S SPEECH AND THE CONFERENCE YOU ARE AT THIS WEEK? MICHAEL: IT IS GOING TO CREATE TENSION BETWEEN NOW AND SEPTEMBER AND CERTAINLY OCTOBER WITH THE MIDTERMS. THE TREASURY SECRETARY IS SAYING INTEREST RATES ARE TOO HIGH AND SAYING THE BOND MARKET IS WRONG ABOUT ALL OF THAT, WHICH NOBODY EVER DOES.

KEVIN WARSH IS TELLING US HE THINKS THE BOND MARKET SHOULD BE GIVING SIGNALS TO THE FED ON WHAT TO DO. THE BOND MARKET IS PROBABLY GOING TO PRICE FOR A RATE INCREASE IF CPI IS BAD. DOES THAT BRING SCOTT BESSENT INTO THE MARKETS WITH A BIGGER BITE BACK TO TRY TO AFFECT THE YIELD CURVE? IT'S GOING TO BE AN INTERESTING DYNAMIC BETWEEN THE TWO OF THEM, AND THE MAN WHO WILL GET ALL THE PUBLICITY IS THE PRESIDENT, IF HE DECIDES TO WEIGH IN.

KEVIN WARSH HAS AT LEAST FOUR MORE YEARS AS THE FED CHAIRMAN AND DONALD TRUMP HAS TWO. WARSH, NOW THAT HE IS CONFIRMED AND ON THE JOB, SUPREME COURT NOT WITHSTANDING -- WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH LISA COOK -- BUT HE PROBABLY FEELS A LITTLE MORE SECURE WITH DOING WHAT HE THINKS NEEDS TO BE DONE. JOE: HIS FIRST JACKSON HOLE BEHIND HIM. MIKE, GOOD LUCK GETTING BACK HOME. THE FED'S HAWKISH TILT SENDING SHORT-TERM TREASURY YIELDS HIGHER TODAY AS INVESTORS PLACE ROUGHLY 5050 ODDS OF A RATE HIKE AT THE FED'S SEPTEMBER DECISION.

I THINK EVERY MEETING INCLUDING SEPTEMBER IS LIVE, BUT ALSO THAT IS ABOUT AS MUCH AS WE ARE GOING TO GET OUT OF THE CHAIRMAN IN TERMS OF HIS REACTION FUNCTION THAT THERE MAY BE WORK TO DO. JOE: JOINING US FOR MORE IS THE FOUNDER AND PRESIDENT OF FORWARD STRATEGIES, SENIOR FELLOW FOR FISCAL POLICY. WE LOOK FORWARD TO HAVING YOU. WELCOME TO OUR CONVERSATION HERE ON BLOOMBERG. THE FED CHAIR WOULD NOT SAY IT TODAY, THE MARKETS TRYING TO DO, HOW ABOUT YOU?

DO WE GET A HIKE IN SEPTEMBER? MATTIE: I THINK WITH THE FED CHAIR HAD TO SAY TODAY ABOUT RATES WAS THE LEAST INTERESTING PART ABOUT THE SPEECH. PUTTING ASIDE THE FACT THAT THE FED CHAIR WAS POTENTIALLY TROLLING ALL OF US WITH THOSE COMMENTS ABOUT HIKES, THE PHYSICAL HIKING OF A MOUNTAIN IN THE BEGINNING, TRYING TO GET IT MAY BE THE ALGORITHM WORKING FOR HIM THERE, I THINK THE MOST IMPORTANT THING THE FED CHAIR DID TODAY WAS TALK ABOUT THE AVAILABILITY OF CREDIT.

HE OFFERED CONFIDENCE TO MARKETS TO IGNORE FOR THE NEAR TERM WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE LONG BOND AND ALL OF THE MECHANICS THAT TREASURY WENT THROUGH LAST WEEK TO SAY LISTEN, THE FED IS IN CONCERN BECAUSE THEY ARE FOCUSED ON LONG-TERM GROWTH. THAT IS A THING THAT AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS WILL HEAR WHEN THEY ARE TRYING TO THINK ABOUT THEIR OWN FINANCIAL CIRCUMSTANCES. YOU AND MIKE TAUGHT ME ABOUT THE TREASURY VERSUS THE FEDERAL RESERVE VERSUS THE PRESIDENT.

AMERICANS ARE FOCUSED ON NOVEMBER AND ELECTIONS AND THEIR IDEA ABOUT THEIR ECONOMIC CIRCUMSTANCES AND WHAT AFFECTS THAT IS THEIR LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE. I THINK THAT IS WHAT KEVIN WARSH WAS TRYING TO DO, GET AWAY FROM THIS CONVERSATION ABOUT WILL HE COME UP WITH T IN SEPTEMBER ABOUT RATES, BECAUSE -- WILL HE, WON'T HE IN SEPTEMBER ABOUT RATES, BECAUSE AMERICANS ARE WORRIED ABOUT WHAT THEIR FINANCIAL FUTURE LOOKS LIKE IN THE NEAR TERM.

TYLER: AAA IS NOW SHOWING THE NATIONAL AVERAGE FOR A GALLON OF GAS IS FOUR DOLLARS. WE TALK ABOUT THAT A LOT AS THE PSYCHOLOGICAL THRESHOLD. THIS IS THE PRICE CONSUMERS ARE PAYING EVERY DAY. IF WE DON'T GET POSITIVE ACTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST SOON, HOW MUCH WOULD A SUSTAINED MOVE ABOVE FOUR DOLLARS PER CHANGE DISINFLATION PSYCHOLOGY THAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE FED TRYING TO COMBAT? MATTIE: THAT IS THE QUESTION KEVIN WARSH AND THE REST OF HIS FEDERAL COMPATRIOTS ARE ASKING EVERY EVENING.

IT IS A DIFFICULT SUMMER TO PARSE THESE ECONOMIC SIGNALS. YOU WOULD THINK GAS ABOUT FOUR DOLLARS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE SUMMER DRIVING SEASON, WOULD BE THE CRITICAL COMPONENT AMERICANS FACTOR INTO THEIR THINKING ABOUT THE ECONOMY. BUT THERE IS SO MUCH THAT GOES INTO WHY GAS IS GETTING MORE EXPENSIVE. IT'S BECAUSE OF POLITICAL TENSIONS, UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TRADE, AND THE HEADLINES ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE CONFLICT IN IRAN IS SO DISTANT FROM WHAT IS HAPPENING DOMESTICALLY, I THINK IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY THAT GAS PRICES ARE GOING TO BE AN ECONOMIC INDICATOR THAT AMERICAN FAMILIES ARE USING HEADING INTO THE END OF THE YEAR, PARTICULARLY BECAUSE WE ARE OUT OF THAT SUMMER DRIVING SEASON.

BIGGER PICTURE, IT IS ABOUT STABILITY. WE'VE GOT ANOTHE

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