比特币重回8万美元，杰克逊霍尔会议前夕市场聚焦

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin as it is now above $80,000. We are also on the eve of Kevin Worsh speaking at Jackson Hole tomorrow, which would be Friday. So, we're going to talk about that. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com.

As a reminder, the ticket prices for the first ITC conference, Investing Through the Cycles Conference, are going up on September 1st. So, if you would like to get your ticket, make sure you go ahead and do so. Now, Bitcoin is trading back above $80,000, and we are on the eve of a fairly important event. Kevin Walsh is going to be speaking tomorrow at Jackson Hole. Now, if you guys were here for the 2022 midterm year, you might remember that it was Kevin or it was Jerome Powell coming out on August in late August and saying uh in very clear terms, there will be pain and and the stock market reacted negatively to that and it and it went down into the low that we ended up forming for that midterm year.

Now Kevin Walsh is a little bit different to say the least when compared to Jerome Powell. Kevin Walsh seems to be more of the belief that forward guidance is not really needed and he also recently said that they expect essentially the long end of the yield curve to do the work for them. One of the issues right now is that Kevin Worsh is saying that the long end of the yield curve will do the work, but you have treasur Treasury Secretary Bessant uh you know essentially accelerating their bond buyback program thus trying to bring the long end the yield curve down.

So the problem is how can they both work simultaneously? How can how can Wor say just let the long end do the work so that we don't have to raise rates while you have the secretary the Treasury secretary saying you know what we're going to do basically what we can to keep the long end down. So there's an issue there because it it it doesn't really allow for either of them to kind of rely on what they were previously, you know, perhaps relying on and especially in terms of uh Kevin Worsh, right?

And and so what I think is going to happen tomorrow is he's going to get pressed on that. In fact, Stanley Drunken Miller came out recently and and wrote sort of a a fair a large criticism of the bond buyback program that was recently discussed by the Treasury Secretary. And so then the question now has become if that is brought up, how will he respond to it? Now, that's a lot, right? I mean, there's there's a lot going on.

As of right now, the odds of a rate hike in September are somewhat low according to the market, right? There's only a one-third chance you're going to get a rate hike in September. I imagine the probabilities on this will probably change some after the the meeting in Jackson Hole and of course after we get the next unemployment rate uh labor market report that'll be coming out next week. And so going into the to the actual meeting, we should have a better idea as to what's actually going to happen.

So, where is Bitcoin now? Well, right now, Bitcoin is at 80K. And I I've had a lot of people ask, you know, is the bottom end, right? Everyone wants to know, is the bottom end? And to some degree, remember, four-year cycle lows don't always have to occur at the end of the midterm year. There are examples in the stock market where it occurs in the summer, and we covered that previously. be that as it may, just because it sometimes occurs in the summer does not unilaterally mean that Bitcoin's Bitcoin cannot go back down.

And so what I want to talk about a little bit here is still make the comparison to 2018, show you guys certain fractalss and why fractals are hard to put a lot of faith in because they all look very similar, but the eventual path can can be very very different. So the first thing I want to do here is look at 2018 and we can start to see some divergence in it and maybe and but we've also talked about how it's not just 2018 but it's kind of like a little 2019esque as well.

In 2018 Bitcoin formed a low at around $6,000 and in 2026 that low was around $60,000. Now what's interesting is the timing of things have more or less lined up. There's maybe some slight deviation. Now, so in February of 2018, Bitcoin formed a low at around $6,000. In February of 2026, Bitcoin formed a low at around $60,000. And then in late March, early April, Bitcoin formed a higher low in 2018 in the same way it did so in 2026.

And then from there, Bitcoin formed a lower high in May of both 2018 and 2026. Obviously, I've been pretty bearish on Bitcoin since last October, November time frame, especially when Bitcoin fell below the 50week moving average in November. And um but that was sort of like the final nail in the coffin to the bare market. That was not the first indicator of the bare market. That was the last indicator that the bare market was in fact here back in November of 2025.

You can see that Bitcoin fell below the 50we moving average right there kind of early November time frame and Bitcoin was still at around $100,000 or so a little over $100,000. So what's interesting is that we've had rallies like we had in 2018, right? We had those rallies and there every time we had a rally there was all this emotion associated with it. Tons of emotion. Frankly, a lot of hate, right? A lot of hate towards me for suggesting that the bare market could come in 2026.

But then we fast forward and and it it did all play out, right? Like the the rally in in March and April last or earlier this year, we look back on it and we're like, "Yeah, counter trend rally." We look back on the rally that we had back in in, you know, December and early January and we can say, yep, it was a counter trend rally. There was no reason there was no reason for the emotions to get to the point that they did.

But that did not stop the emotions from getting to that point anyways, right? Because, and I've said this before, whenever the market's going up, it feels like it will never go down again. Whenever the market's going down, it feels like it will never go up again. So let's just go through again where has it been similar and is it starting to deviate because we want to be a student of the market. We want to say has this happened before?

Is there any precedent for it or would it make more sense to just get on the bull bandwagon and and not even consider further downside? Well, as I will remind you, and I know people don't like listening to this part because there's a difference between being right and making money, as I've said countless times, and on July 1st, I was very clear. I said it on YouTube, I said it on Twitter, that the accumulation window for Bitcoin, in my opinion, had begun, right?

But that with that, we could go lower in the fourth quarter of the year. And the reason for that is because I was looking back at how I had played the last two cycles and saying, you know what, the last two cycles I started buying Bitcoin in the second half of the midterm year. In both cases, there was a rally that made me believe the bottom was in in some cases. Last like I wasn't really believing the bottom was in, you know, and then it came later.

But in 2018, I thought the bottom was in uh by the summer and then we ended up going lower later on. And so sort of the thing to think about here is have we seen this type of move before that then led to price coming back down. I don't have a crystal ball unfortunately. I cannot sit here and tell you with 100% confidence what is going to happen. I can say that there is a slight deviation in the 2018 move and we'll talk about that now.

So, if you look at the how it's formed so far, you have a February low in 2018 and 2026. You have a higher low in late March, early April of both years. You have a lower low in the summer where you swep