沃什称通胀未放缓，承诺实现2%目标

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. [music] You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5:00 p.m. [music] Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or [music] watch us live on YouTube. The bond market keying off the message from the boss today. Fed chair Kevin Worsh at Jackson Hole making it clear that he is serious about inflation which he says is not slowing pointing to the last many months of watching the data.

Listen now. There is one signal nobody can miss. responsibility for 65 months of sustained elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank and that's where it belongs. So here is my standard. We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise we have work to do. That's our job. That's our mandate and that's our charge to keep.

[snorts]

The Fed chair Kevin Worsh on his 100th day as the head of the central bank speaking from Jackson Ho hole earlier which is where we now find our Bloomberg's Michael McKe Bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent. So Mike, we've been talking all day about what the Fed chair said in terms of there maybe needing to be work that has to get done in order for inflation to fall, but what happens here next?

Because now the question seems to be when? What are those data points that you're going to be watching ahead of that next FOMC meeting?

Well, the next things we're going to watch obviously is next week's payrolls report. If that comes in neutral, in other words, not too many jobs lost or gained and the unemployment rate basically unchanged, then they can put that aside again. As the Fed officials, including the chairman, have said today, it is the labor market is stable at this point. So, they're worried about inflation. and we get on the 12th of September the CPI report followed by the PPI report and then those two numbers can be used to come up with the PCE index uh of inflation which we won't get till the end of September but they'll have a pretty good idea of what it is.

So they will know whether inflation is going down as they hope or whether it is making no progress. And if it's making no progress after CPI and PPI, you can bet that the markets are going to be pricing in a Fed rate hike. Not because the chairman said it's definitely going to happen, but be because he's told them enough now that they can infer that that's probably the path that the Fed will take.

So did the mood music change after the speech, Mike? What's the mood there? Were people surprised that he took such a hard line?

I think the markets pressured him into that. They basically told him that they were not happy with the way he had performed at the July 29th press conference and today he gave them what they wanted. He basically said at this point that inflation is a danger which he said before but then he added onto that and said the Fed will act if necessary and he didn't as I mentioned earlier specifically talk about rate increases but he did suggest enough to infer that's what he's talking about and that's what the markets wanted to hear.

They wanted to know not just that he doesn't like inflation but that he's going to do something about it and how he's going to do something about it. Mhm.

Mike, all of this is factoring in to the conversation about the Fed's credibility. We spoke earlier this week and you broke the news in terms of Lisa Cook sending this letter to the White House. Just wondering if we've gotten any update there and what you're watching for in terms of how the White House may be responding to everything that we're hearing today. Well, we're all kind of monitoring the truth social feed because we want to see if he if the president says anything about Lisa Cook, who is by the way here.

Uh, but I have noticed in doing that that he's occupied by a whole lot of other subjects. So, I don't think it's going to be top of mind for the White House today. And it would not benefit the president a whole lot to come out and criticize this speech because again it's innuendo influ inferring and that sort of thing. So uh probably not going to hear anything from him until we get some sort of data point he can crow about or complain about and then give him some [clears throat] advice going into the meeting.

Okay, that's the model I guess. Mike, just quickly before we say goodbye uh for now, what happens if there's no hike in September? How would the bond market react?

That's all totally going to depend on the data. If we get a CPI that say suggests that there is decreasing inflation pressure, then the market's not going to be unhappy if necessarily if they don't get a hike. But also remember in the speech today that he laid out two criteria. Not just whether inflation's going up or down, but the breadth of inflation. How many things in the inflation reports are going up or down? 54% were going up.

So a majority in the last reports. So we got to watch that as well.

Great to have you with us as always. Michael McKe with a vest that should have its own social media account. We keep hearing about it. Mike, you look great out there with us live from Jackson Hole on this uh Fed chair Worsh speech day. We finally survived it and keeping our eyes on the markets. As Charlie mentioned a little while ago, we are seeing an uptick here uh in bond yields with emphasis on uh the short end.

The 2-year up 12 ticks now to 434. The 10-year up five to 472 and the 30 sitting at 520 up just one tick today with a lower stock market. The S&P 500 is down 18 points on the sixmonth mark. This is 6 months today since the start of the Iran war which has come up repeatedly over the course of the past couple of hours here with so much focus on price pressure. The straight of Hormuz uh being the focal point here sending prices of course of energy higher but also other things other inputs like fertilizer.

The president of the United States in the Oval Office asked about the war yesterday. Listen,

Iran is right now they're in deep trouble. They have uh very little capacity. It doesn't mean we're finished with the military, but the Straight of Hormos is open. Uh we have control. We have the blockade. We're taking a lot of boats. Millions and millions of barrels of oil are coming out of the straight every day. There has been a question about the extent to which oil flows are resuming, depending on who you ask, to about a halfway point or twothirds of where we were before the war effort.

We frequently bring on military experts here, retired generals to tell us about what's happening. And in this case, we speak with retired Army Brigadier General Leela Gray, who is also in the center of the political storm as a Democratic candidate for Florida's 13th Congressional District. It's great to have you, General. Uh thanks for joining us today on Bloomberg TV and radio. We'd like to get to the issues uh that are of course driving decisions in your campaign and we'll be hopefully speaking with uh your opponent as well in the near future, Anna Paulina Luna.

Uh but I'd like to ask you about what your thought is 6 months into a war that the president initially said would last four to six weeks. Are we closer to the beginning or the end? I this has been a heavy toll, I think, on certainly the military and their family members. We've lost 18 service members. We've had over 750 wounded. And this is a heavy toll for them. And if you assess where we were before we went into Iran, where we are today, I think you're going to see a stark contrast that has achieved nothing but a cost of living crisis.

And right here in Florida, you know, those choices, that reckless choice to go to war with Iran has created a a situation for people that are unable to afford to live dayto-day. Uh I just received information and and found ou