IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃：债务高企加大央行抗通胀难度

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I'm here with the IMF managing director, Cristina Gorgva. After a momentous speech from Fed Chair Kevin Walsh, this is your first Jackson Hole summit. I would love to just first say thank you for joining us. What was your takeaway from Kevin W's speech. What did you think of it?

He did a great job. He articulated his views on the evolution of monetary policy in a rapidly changing world very clearly and his commitment to price stability that 2% is a target for the Fed to achieve was very clear. Uh I think the uh audience was positively impressed by the clarity and also the message he communicated to the central bank king community. We have to be humble. The world is changing so rapidly. We have to carefully watch what is going on and make our best call for the benefits of people for the benefits of the economy.

You know you wrote you actually had also a speech uh later in the morning where you wrote central bank's most critical role is to ensure inflation remains low and stable. How do you understand the past five more than 5 years where inflation has been above target? Is this the fault of central bankers? Is this something else that we can address? What has happened over the last years is shock upon shock upon shock and that pressed governments to borrow and spend more than they should and of course that has some inflationary uh impact.

Uh and also we know that u when we were hit by COVID at that time the public spending was perhaps a bit more generous. Uh but how do you know how much is enough when the world economy comes to a screeching uh stop? I would blame central banks only if they don't draw lessons from experience and what we are seeing here in Jackson Hall and what we heard from uh chair wares they are drawing lessons from experience and the lesson at least on its face seems to be perhaps they need to be a bit more restrictive in their policies.

Do you think that more broadly around the world that needs to be the approach even though shocks are still going to keep coming? It seems like the shock after shock after shock isn't really changing.

We have to accept this reality that the world is changing very rapidly and that part of this change is a positive or a negative shock. Right now we are dealing with two shocks that work in the in opposite directions. We have the energy supply shock and then we have AI. One drags grow down, the other one pushes it up. We have to get accustomed to an environment that is less predictable. What do you do in that environment when first build your buffers especially in good times?

Right now the economy is doing well. Well, let's cut the deficit, bring down the debt. Uh, and two, recognize that your best friend are sound policies and strong institutions.

Do you ever get frustrated? Do you feel like you're beating your head against the wall when you say come on get your house in order to people who are saying no thanks maybe the next guy can come around to do it because it seems like no one's listening

some are listening look at emerging markets they have done fabulously well the monetary policy frameworks are strong fiscal frameworks are much better sometimes we look at them they do better than advanced economy so some people that have had the painful experience of crisis is are listening. Uh it is human nature. When do we fix our roofs? When the sun is shining or when there is rain. So we will continue to shout police.

The sun is shining. It's a good time. Bring the roofers. Bring the roofers. Ked Rogoff uh earlier a Harvard professor was talking with my colleague Tom Keane and he said ultimately it's going to take a debt crisis to really cause developed markets to get their fiscal house in order. Do you agree?

Not necessarily. We have seen historically that actions has been have been taken in good economic times. sound growth, good household spending, investments booming and then adjustments, fiscal adjustments uh take place. But we have to recognize that we live in a world of popular desire for the government to spend more. Why? Because the government has done it over the last couple of crisis. did it after COVID did it after the energy shock from the war in Ukraine and food shock price shock at that time.

So people are saying hey you did it continue not affordable. My message to everybody is delay no longer. Why? Because debt levels are now above where they were after the second world war. Uh, and Ken Roof is right to say, "Do you really want a crisis to get you to do what is necessary? Please act on your own."

It sounds like a kid who's gotten candy after everything that they've done and suddenly someone's saying, "Take the candy away. You might get a tantrum, but it is what it is." You wrote, you said in your speech also that IMF popularly stands for intern, it's mostly fiscal. It's an interesting point at a monetary policy conference. How has the fiscal debt overhang complicated monetary policy and made it a lot more difficult for policy makers to really address inflation just head on?

Well, first, more demand, more spending pushes price levels up, not down. Second, when we have a high level of debt, it is much harder for central banks to act decisively by raising interest rates. Why? Because then the cost of serving the debt is going to go up and they especially the Fed here dual mandate, price stability and employment. We don't want to undermine the strong performance of the economy and that is why their job is is harder.

But it is their job. They have first and foremost the responsibility for price stability.

Another aspect of this conference has been stable coin. Although if you get people in the hallways, no one wants to talk about stable coin. They're like, we're here to talk about something else. And it is not the question of exactly how we're gonna have digital assets. That said, you made a really interesting point about the role that technology plays in financial stability and how it could actually expedite or hasten crises stemming from monetary policy accidents or other or fiscal policy accidents.

Can you talk a little about that?

Well, what we know is that financial innovation is good, but it increases risks. It accelerates impact and if this impact is possible positive, great. If it is negative, it can lead to spillover impacts within an economy and even across its borders. My message on this point is don't live with the illusion that technology is going to make your life simpler. It won't. You need strong policy frameworks. Even more so in a world of fast impact from technology.

More, not less.

I'm smiling because I don't think anyone feels like artificial intelligence has really made their lives that much more easier. Everyone's just trying to scramble to keep up with everything. Do you think right now that the potential issue that could cause some sort of systemic event really is inflation and potentially inflation getting a bit out of control and forcing the hand of central banks more aggressively. So the good news is that um um inflation expectations are still well anchored.

We have had stubborn inflation and it is something that central banks ought to pay attention to and take action if necessary and it was very reassuring to hear Chair Walsh saying that if necessary we act. But we are not seeing the underlying trend to be one that creates fears that inflation is getting completely out of uh whack. It is not happening. Why is it important to act decisively early? Because if inflation expectations were to deank anchor then what would happen in markets is of course nervousness turning into panic.

We don't want that to happen. Do you think that there is a credibility issue for central banks in developed markets right now given the concerns with the fiscal overhang and given some of the fears that they've been reluctant to address inflation? Just trying to explain it away, trying to figure out wh