美联储主席沃什：不排除加息，通胀仍高于目标
Fed Chair Warsh not ruling out interest rate hike amid inflation concerns
美联储主席沃什首次重要演讲释放鹰派信号，不排除加息，市场加息概率大幅上升，对全球资产定价影响深远，建议投资者关注后续美联储政策路径与通胀数据。
R KEVIN WARSH DELIVERED A CLEAR MESSAGE ON INFLATION TODAY. THERE IS STILL WORK TO DO.
R·凯文·沃什今天在通胀问题上发出了明确信息：仍有工作要做。
INFLATION IS RUNNING ABOVE OUR 2% TARGET. SO THE FED'S PREDOMINANT FOCUS RIGHT NOW SHOULD BE ON PRICES. THERE IS ONE SIGNAL NOBODY CAN MISS, THE RESPONSIBILITY FOR 65 MONTHS OF SUSTAINED, ELEVATED INFLATION SITS SQUARELY WITH THE CENTRAL BANK. AND THAT IS WHERE IT BELONGS. AMNA: AT THE FED'S ANNUAL ECONOMIC SYMPOSIUM IN JACKSON HOLE, WYOMING, WARSH ADDED THE ECONOMY IS RESILIENT, BUSINESSES ARE INVESTING, EMPLOYMENT IS STABLE, AND THERE IS HEALTHY CONSUMER SPENDING.
通胀率高于我们2%的目标。因此，美联储目前的主要焦点应放在物价上。有一个信号不容忽视：连续65个月持续高企的通胀责任完全在于央行，而这正是责任所在。阿姆娜：在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度经济研讨会上，沃什补充说，经济具有韧性，企业正在投资，就业稳定，消费者支出健康。
WARSH ALSO SAID THAT ALTHOUGH HE IS NOT COMMITTED TO A RATE HIKE, HE IS NOT RULING IT OUT, SIGNALING HIS CONCERN FOR ONGOING INFLATION. -- HIS ONGOING CONCERN OVER INFLATION. FOR MORE ON WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE ECONOMY MOVING FORWARD, I'M JOINED BY NICK TIMIRAOS. HE'S THE CHIEF ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT AT THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. NICK, WELCOME TO THE SHOW. THANKS FOR JOINING US.
沃什还表示，虽然他并未承诺加息，但也不排除这种可能性，这显示出他对持续通胀的担忧。关于这对未来经济意味着什么，我邀请到了《华尔街日报》首席经济记者尼克·蒂米劳斯。尼克，欢迎来到节目，感谢你的参与。
THANKS FOR HAVING ME. AMNA: SO, THIS WAS FED CHAIR WARSH'S FIRST MAJOR SPEECH SINCE HIS CONFIRMATION. BRIEFLY, BEFORE WE GET INTO THE DETAILS, WHAT WAS YOUR BIGGEST TAKEAWAY?
谢谢邀请。阿姆娜：这是美联储主席沃什自确认任命以来的首次重要演讲。在我们深入细节之前，请简要谈谈你最大的收获是什么？
WELL, THE TAKEAWAY WAS, AS YOU HAD IT IN THE SETUP THERE, HE SOUNDED LIKE SOMEBODY WHO RECOGNIZES THE ECONOMY MAY NEED HIGHER INTEREST RATES. AND THAT WAS A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE FROM HIS LAST PRESS CONFERENCE. THE LINE THAT STOOD OUT TO ME WAS THAT HE SAID FINANCIAL CONDITIONS OR BORROWING CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW DON'T SEEM PARTICULARLY RESTRICTIVE. AND THAT'S IMPORTANT BECAUSE THAT'S HOW THE FED THINKS THEY'RE GOING TO GET INFLATION DONE.
嗯，我的收获是，正如你在开场中提到的，他听起来像是认识到经济可能需要更高利率的人。这与他上次新闻发布会相比略有变化。最让我印象深刻的一句话是，他说当前的金融状况或借贷状况似乎并不特别具有限制性。这很重要，因为这是美联储认为他们能够解决通胀问题的方式。
THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO RESTRAIN LENDING AND SLOW DOWN THE ECONOMY. AMNA: SO, WHEN HE SAYS THAT THEY'RE NOT DONE FIGHTING INFLATION, COULD THAT MEAN A RATE HIKE WHEN THE FED MEETS NEXT MONTH?
他们将不得不限制贷款并减缓经济增长。阿姆娜：那么，当他说他们尚未完成对抗通胀的任务时，这是否意味着下个月美联储会议时可能会加息？
YES, THAT'S CERTAINLY HOW THE BOND MARKET TOOK THE NEWS BEFORE KEVIN WASH'S SPEECH, INVESTORS AND INTEREST RATE FUTURES MARCUS WERE PRICING IN -- MARKETS WERE PRICING IN A ONE THIRD CHANCE OF AN INTEREST RATE INCREASE NEXT MONTH. THAT WENT UP TO ABOUT 60%. SO MORE LIKELY THAN NOT AFTER HE SPOKE AND OF COURSE THE FED WILL GET MORE DATA BEFORE THAT MEETING AND SO THAT, THAT NUMBER CAN MOVE AROUND A LITTLE BIT, BUT IT SHOWS YOU THE DIRECTION OF TRAVEL.
是的，这确实是债券市场在凯文·沃什讲话之前所解读的。投资者和利率期货市场原本预计下月加息的可能性为三分之一，讲话后这一概率升至约60%。因此，在他发言后，加息的可能性更大。当然，美联储在会议前还会获得更多数据，所以这个数字可能会有所波动，但这显示了趋势方向。
INVESTORS HEARD WHAT KEVIN WARSH SAID AND THEY THOUGHT, SOUNDS LIKE SOMEBODY WHO'S MAYBE MORE LIKELY THAN WE THOUGHT TO RAISE INTEREST RATES NEXT MONTH. AMNA: YOU MENTIONED THE BOND MARKET REACTION THERE. WE SHOULD ALSO REMIND FOLKS WHEN WASH CAME INTO THIS ROLE, HE WAS SAYING THE CENTRAL BANK SHOULD COMMUNICATE LESS ABOUT WHAT KIND OF PATH IT WILL TAKE MOVING FORWARD, LESS FORWARD GUIDANCE AS HE HAS PUT IT. AND HE DIDN'T OFFER A PATH FORWARD FOR POLICY TODAY.
投资者们听到了凯文·沃什的发言，他们认为，这听起来像是比我们预想的更有可能在下个月加息的人。阿姆娜：你提到了债券市场的反应。我们还应该提醒大家，当沃什上任时，他曾表示，央行应该减少对未来政策路径的沟通，即他所说的减少前瞻性指引。而今天，他并未提供未来的政策路径。
SO WHAT OTHER REACTION DID WE SEE MORE BROADLY FROM INVESTORS IN THE MARKET?
那么，我们在市场上更广泛地看到了投资者哪些其他反应？
WELL, PART OF THIS IS THE DANCE THAT THE FED IS ALWAYS DOING WITH THE MARKET. AND KEVIN WARSH -- REALLY HIS FIRST PRESS CONFERENCE WAS IN JUNE. HIS FIRST FED MEETING WAS IN JUNE. AND HE CAME OUT OF THAT SOUNDING MUCH LIKE HE DID IN THA
嗯，这部分是美联储与市场之间一直进行的互动。凯文·沃什——实际上他的第一次新闻发布会是在六月。他的第一次美联储会议也是在六月。而他当时的表现，与他在那次会议上的发言非常相似。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力