30年期美债逆转涨幅，贝森特推动债市新动向
30-Year Reverses Gains, Bessent Makes Moves | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 8/20/2026
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播音员：这里是《彭博商业周刊每日》节目，来自这本帮助全球领袖保持领先的杂志，提供关于塑造当今复杂经济的人物、公司和趋势的洞察。加上全球商业、金融和科技新闻实时报道。《彭博商业周刊每日》由卡尔·克尔和蒂姆·斯特诺维克主持——卡罗尔·马瑟和蒂姆·斯特诺维克。在彭博电台、电视台和彭博原创节目上直播。卡罗尔：大家下午好。
YES WE ARE ACROSS BLOCK PLATFORMS. CAROL MASSER ALONG WITH EMILY. TIM IS OFF THIS WEEK. AND SO WE’RE LOOKING AT A MARKET, I GOT TO SAY, WE GOT STOCKS DOWN, JUST A LITTLE BIT. DOWN ABOUT .7%. ON THE NASDAQ 100. WE CONTINUE TO BE CONSUMED, THOUGH, BY A COUPLE OF THINGS, INCLUDING WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN TERMS OF BITCOIN SURPASSING 70,000 DOLLARS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER TWO MONTHS. IS IT? IS IT? EMILY: RELATIVE TO HOW THE LAST, YOU KNOW, COUPLE MONTHS HAVE BEEN.
是的，我们覆盖了各个区块平台。卡罗尔·马瑟和艾米丽一起主持。蒂姆这周休假。所以我们正在关注市场，我得说，我们看到股票略有下跌。下跌约0.7%。在纳斯达克100指数上。不过，我们仍然被几件事所吸引，包括我们看到比特币超过70,000美元，这是两个多月来的首次。是吗？是吗？艾米丽：相对于过去几个月的表现来说。
FOR BITCOIN. AND IT ACTUALLY IS IMPRESSIVE. THAT IT’S UP ON A DAY WHEN THE STOCK MARKET IS LOWER. CAROL: YEAH. I THOUGHT THAT WAS AT ONE POINT SUPPOSED TO BE A SAFE HAVEN. EMILY: YEAH. AT ONE POINT IT WAS A HEDGE. CAROL: THEN IT’S A RISK. EMILY: NOW IT’S A RISK ASSET. THEN IT WAS A GAUGE FOR LIKE SPECULATIVE ACTIVITY. JUST LET IT HAVE ITS DAY TODAY. CAROL: ALL RIGHT. MAYBE WE’LL LET IT HAVE ITS DAY. IT IS ALSO PROPELLED BY U.S.
对比特币而言。而且这确实令人印象深刻。在股市走低的日子里它却上涨了。卡罗尔：是的。我记得它曾经一度被认为是避险资产。艾米丽：是的。它曾经是对冲工具。卡罗尔：然后它变成了风险资产。艾米丽：现在它是风险资产。然后它又成了投机活动的指标。今天就让它表现一下吧。卡罗尔：好吧。也许我们会让它表现一下。它也得到了美国方面的推动。
TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT’S MOVE TO PUSH U.S. BOND YIELDS LOWER. WE ALSO DID HAVE THAT MEETING YESTERDAY TOO WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THE CRYPTO INDUSTRY LEADERS. MEANTIME, WE’RE GOING TO TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THE TREASURY MARKET. IT IS DEFINITELY FRONT AND CENTER. THE LATEST SIGNALING FROM THE U.S. TREASURY MARKET, WE’VE GOT A GREAT ROUND TABLE COMING UP, I CAN’T WAIT FOR EMILY AND I TO GET TO IT. PLUS, WE’VE GOT TO TALK ABOUT WAL-MART.
财政部长斯科特·贝森特推动美国债券收益率走低的举措。我们昨天也和特朗普总统以及加密行业领袖举行了会议。与此同时，我们将更多地讨论国债市场。这绝对是焦点。美国国债市场的最新信号，我们即将有一个很棒的圆桌讨论，我和艾米丽都迫不及待要开始了。另外，我们还要谈谈沃尔玛。
MASSIVE RETAILER, WORLD’S LARGEST, I THINK, OR VERY CLOSE TO IT. AND WHAT THAT SAYS ABOUT CONSUMERS. EMILY: AND SPEAKING OF THE CONSUMER. WE’RE ALSO GOING TO TALK ABOUT THE HOUSING MARKET. IT’S ALL KIND OF TIED TOGETHER WITH AMY RUBENSTEIN, C.E.O. OF CLEAR INVESTMENT GROUP, ON OPPORTUNISTIC REAL ESTATE. CAROL: I WONDER IF HIGHER RATES OR THE RATE ENVIRONMENT IN ANY WAY CREATES MORE DISTRESSED ASSETS AND GIVES THEM SOME OPPORTUNITIES.
大型零售商，我想是全球最大的，或者非常接近。以及这对消费者意味着什么。艾米丽：说到消费者。我们还将讨论房地产市场。这些都和Clear投资集团首席执行官艾米·鲁宾斯坦关于机会型房地产的讨论联系在一起。卡罗尔：我想知道更高的利率或利率环境是否在某种程度上创造了更多不良资产，并给他们带来了一些机会。
ALSO THE OWNER OF THE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE SAYS IT’S LOOKING AT POLYMARKETS, NEW FUNDING ROUND. A C.E.O. WILL BE WITH US IN AN EXCLUSIVE AND THEN THERE’S GLP1’S. I FEEL LIKE A.I. AND GLP1’S ARE TWO BIG STORIES IN SOCIETY AND ALSO IN THE MARKET THAT WE’VE TALKED ABOUT FOR THE LAST THREE YEARS. EMILY: HUGE FORCES. RESHAPING HEALTH CARE, RESHAPING WALL STREET. WE’RE GOING TO GET INTO ALL OF THAT. CAROL: SO MANY DIFFERENT SECTORS.
纽约证券交易所的所有者也表示正在关注Polymarkets的新一轮融资。一位首席执行官将接受我们的独家专访，接下来还有关于GLP-1的话题。我觉得人工智能和GLP-1是过去三年我们一直在谈论的社会和市场中的两大重要故事。艾米丽：巨大的力量。重塑医疗保健，重塑华尔街。我们将深入探讨所有这些。卡罗尔：涉及如此多的不同行业。
A LOT COMING YOUR WAY OVER THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. LET’S GET DO IT WITH A CHECK ON THE TRADING SESSION. MATT IS IN FOR CHARLIE PELLETT. MATT: THANKS SO MUCH. LIVE FROM THE BLOOMBERG INTERACTIVE STUDIOS. TWO HOURS LEFT OF TRADING AND WE ARE STILL SEEING A BIT OF A DROP ON WALL STREET FOR YOUR THURSDAY. WE DO CHECK THE MARKETS FOR YOU ALL DAY LONG HERE AT BLOOMBERG. LET’S TAKE A LOOK. THE DOW IS DOWN MORE THAN 1% OR 570 POINTS.
接下来的60分钟里会有很多内容。让我们先看看交易时段的情况。马特代替查理·佩莱特。马特：非常感谢。来自彭博互动工作室的直播。距离交易结束还有两个小时，周四华尔街仍然看到一些下跌。我们在彭博全天候为您关注市场。让我们来看一下。道琼斯指数下跌超过1%，即570点。
THE S&P IS DOWN 47 POINTS, THE NASDAQ IS DOWN ABOUT 250 RIGHT NOW. THE BLOOMBERG DOLLAR SPOT INDEX IS AT 1193. THE TWO-YEAR YIELD IS UP TWO BASIS POINTS. THE 10-YEAR YIELD IS UP FIVE. SO IS THE 30-YEAR YIELD. THAT ONE IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE ACCELERATED BUYBACK THAT WE’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT WITH TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT. GOLD RIGHT NOW IS UP AT $4520. THE DOLLAR’S LITTLE CHANGED BUT BITCOIN IS TRADING ABOVE $70,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JUNE.
标普500指数下跌47点，纳斯达克指数目前下跌约250点。彭博美元现货指数为1193。两年期收益率上涨两个基点。十年期收益率上涨五个基点。三十年期收益率也是如此。这是我们一直在讨论的与财政部长斯科特·贝森特相关的加速回购的主要焦点。黄金目前上涨至4520美元。美元变化不大，但比特币自6月以来首次交易在70000美元以上。
BITCOIN RIGHT NOW IS UP $72,660. A RISE IN OIL PRICES FOLLOWING PRESIDENT TRUMP’S LATEST THREATS TO IRAN. BRENT IS AT $93 A BARREL. W.T.I. IS JUST SHY OF $88. ANDS A CAROL SAID, WE ARE LOOKING AT WAL-MART TODAY. ITS QUARTERLY SALES FELL SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS. THE COMPANY’S PHARMACY BUSINESS WAS HINDERED BY FEDERAL NEGOTIATIONS THAT LED TO LOWER DRUG PRICES AND SHOPPERS SPENT LESS PER TRIP DURING THE QUARTER. WAL-MART’S SHARES RIGHT NOW ARE DOWN ABOUT 10.5%.
比特币目前上涨至72660美元。在特朗普总统对伊朗发出最新威胁后，油价上涨。布伦特原油价格为每桶93美元。WTI原油价格接近88美元。正如卡罗尔所说，我们今天关注沃尔玛。其季度销售额未达预期。公司的药房业务受到联邦谈判的影响，导致药品价格降低，且本季度顾客每次购物的花费减少。沃尔玛股价目前下跌约10.5%。
WE’RE ALSO LOOKING AT ALIBABA. ALIBABA’S PROFIT DRIVING AT 75%, AFTER A.I. SPENDING HIT $SO BILLION. THE -- $10 BILLION. THE COMPANY REPORTED A 9% JUMP IN REVENUE BUT NET INCOME DID TUMBLE. ALIBABA SHARES RIGHT NOW ARE NOT DOING ACTUALLY TOO BAD. THEY’RE NOW RIGHT NOW UP ABOUT .4%. AND GLOBAL LUXURY BRANDS ARE FACING A DEEPENING SALES SLUMP IN CHINA WITH SALES AT THE 25 BIGGEST LUXURY LABELS DROPPING MORE THAN 10% IN JULY.
我们也在关注阿里巴巴。阿里巴巴的利润增长了75%，此前人工智能支出达到了100亿美元。公司报告收入增长了9%，但净利润确实下滑了。阿里巴巴股价目前表现其实还不错，现在上涨约0.4%。全球奢侈品牌在中国面临日益严重的销售下滑，7月份25大奢侈品牌的销售额下降了超过10%。
BRANDS LIKE LOUIE I HAVEN TO AND DIOR RECORDING DOUBLE-DIGIT SALES SWAPS. FOR ON-DEMAND NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY, SUBSCRIBE TO BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW WHEREVER YOU GET YOUR PODCASTS. I’M MATT PEIPER AND THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. CAROL: THANKS SO MUCH. HEY, TREASURIES. U.S. TREASURIES FALLING A DAY AFTER THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SURPRISED DECISION TO INCREASE BUYBACKS OF LONGER DATED BONDS, SHOWING THE MOVE DID LITTLE TO COUNTER ANGST ABOUT THE SURGING U.S.
像路易威登和迪奥这样的品牌录得了两位数的销售增长。如需全天候24小时即时新闻，请立即在您获取播客的任何平台订阅彭博新闻。我是马特·派珀，这里是彭博商业快讯。卡罗尔：非常感谢。嘿，国债方面。美国国债在特朗普政府出人意料地决定增加较长期债券回购后次日下跌，显示此举对缓解因美国国债激增而引发的忧虑几乎毫无作用。
GOVERNMENT DEBT THAT PUSHED SOME YIELDS TO A 19-YEAR HIGH. MEANTIME, I LOVE THIS STORY ON THE BLOOMBERG, WE TALKED ABOUT IT ON OUR CALL, MARKET PARTICIPANTS ARE WARNING THAT AK LA OF PREDICTABILITY WHEN IT COMES TO THE U.S. TREASURY’S DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY COULD ULTIMATELY PORTEND HIGHER BORROWING COSTS. THERE’S A LOT GOING ON. THE U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY, SCOTT BESSENT, ADDRESSED SOME OF THIS AND THE TREASURY’S ACTIONS YESTERDAY EARLIER FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.
政府债务将部分收益率推至19年高位。与此同时，我很喜欢彭博上的这篇报道，我们在电话会议上讨论过，市场参与者警告称，美国财政部债务管理策略缺乏可预测性，最终可能预示着更高的借贷成本。事情很多。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特昨天早些时候在白宫就其中一些问题及财政部的行动发表了讲话。
ANYTHING THAT HAPPENS WITHIN A 24-HOUR PERIOD IS NOISE AND, YOU KNOW, I THINK THAT ONCE THE MARKET UNDERSTANDS THAT OUR FOCUS IS ON FISCAL CONSOLIDATION, AND THAT WE ARE TRYING TO BRING THE MARKET BACK INTO THE EQUILIBRIUM, IN A THINLY TRADED MARKET. CAROL: ALL RIGHT, THAT OF COURSE WAS U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT EARLIER FROM THE WHITE HOUSE. LET’S GET TO IT WITH TWO OF THE SMARTEST FOLKS AROUND HERE AT BLOOMBERG WHEN IT COMES TO U.S.
24小时内发生的任何事情都是噪音，而且，你知道，我认为一旦市场明白我们的重点是财政整顿，并且我们正试图让市场回到均衡状态，在一个交投清淡的市场中。卡罗尔：好的，那当然是美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特早些时候在白宫的讲话。让我们与彭博这里两位在美债方面最聪明的人士一起探讨。
RATES AND MAYBE JUST ALL AROUND TO BE FAIR. OUR ROUND TABLE, BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE CHIEF U.S. INTEREST RATES STRATEGIST, IRA, JOINING US FROM OUR PRINCETON NEWS BUREAU. ALSO WITH US RIGHT HERE IN STUDIO IS BLOOMBERG’S NEWS RATES REPORTER, MICHAEL MACKENZIE. IRA, I WANT TO START WITH YOU. YOU HAVE SOME NOTES OUT. YOU’VE BEEN WRITING U.S. LONG BONDS YIELDS, MALAISE COULD PERSIST FOR MANY REASONS. TREASURY BUYBACK SURPRISE SIGNALS MORE DURATION SUPPORT AHEAD.
利率，也许公平地说，是全面最聪明的。我们的圆桌讨论，彭博智库首席美国利率策略师艾拉，从我们的普林斯顿新闻分社加入我们。同样在演播室与我们同在的是彭博新闻利率记者迈克尔·麦肯齐。艾拉，我想先请你发言。你有一些笔记。你一直在写美国长期债券收益率，低迷可能因多种原因持续。财政部回购意外信号表明未来将有更多久期支持。
HERE IT IS, ANOTHER DAY, AND WE’RE TALKING ABOUT YIELDS. WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? OR DO WE NOT REALLY KNOW?
又一天了，我们又在谈论收益率。我们接下来该何去何从？还是我们真的不知道？
YEAH, SO I THINK WE’RE GOING TO JUST SEE MORE VOLATILITY. YOU KNOW, WE DON’T KNOW WHAT SCOTT BESSENT AND THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT’S GOING TO DO IN TERMS OF, LOOK, I DON’T EVEN CALL IT LIQUIDITY SUPPORT ANYMORE BECAUSE IF THEY’RE GOING TO DO SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN WHAT THEY’VE ALREADY, YOU KNOW, KIND OF SAID, ANOTHER $2 BILLION, SCOTT BESSENT TODAY DID SAY THAT MAYBE THEY’RE GOING TO DO EVEN MORE THAN THAT. SO IF THEY START DOING ANOTHER, YOU KNOW, $16 BILLION OR $20 BILLION OF BUYBACKS IN THE LONG END, YOU HAVE TO START CALLING THAT EITHER OPERATION TWIST OR SOMETHING MORE AKIN TO THAT.
是的，所以我认为我们将看到更多波动。你知道，我们不知道斯科特·贝森特和财政部会怎么做，看，我甚至不再称之为流动性支持了，因为如果他们要做的事情远超他们已经说过的，比如再增加20亿美元，斯科特·贝森特今天确实说了，也许他们会做得更多。所以如果他们开始在长期端进行160亿或200亿美元的购回，你就不得不开始称之为扭曲操作或类似的东西。
AND, YOU KNOW, ULTIMATELY IF THE GOAL IS FOR THEM TO GET LONGER TERM INTEREST RATES DOWN, THEY HAVE TO DO SOMETHING MUCH BIGGER THAN WHAT THEY’VE DONE. BECAUSE THERE’S STILL A LOT OF DEBT OUT THERE AND TREASURIES NOW ARE COMPETING WITH OTHER DEBT AROUND THE WORLD THAT NOW HAS REAL YIELDS WHICH THEY DIDN’T, YOU KNOW, 10 YEARS AGO WHEN EVERYONE HAD NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES EXCEPT FOR US. CAROL: A COUPLE DIFFERENT TESTS.
而且，你知道，最终如果他们的目标是降低长期利率，他们必须做比现在更大的动作。因为市场上还有很多债务，而现在美国国债正在与世界各地的其他债务竞争，这些债务现在有实际收益率，而10年前除了我们之外，大家都处于负利率时代。卡罗尔：有几个不同的测试。
MICHAEL, COME IN. YOU TOO HAVE BEEN WRITING A LOT ABOUT THIS. AND WHAT WE’VE BEEN SEEING IN GLOBAL RATES. WHAT ARE YOU HEARING? THERE’S A TEAM -- OUR TEAM ALSO WRITING OUT A STORY ON THE BLOOMBERG MARKET PARTICIPANTS WARN THAT AK LA OF PREDICTSABILITY IN THE U.S. TREASURIES’ DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY COULD LEAD TO HIGHER BORROWING. WHAT ARE YOU HEARING?
迈克尔，请发言。你也写了很多关于这方面的内容。以及我们在全球利率中看到的情况。你听到了什么？有一个团队——我们的团队也在彭博上写一篇报道，市场参与者警告说，美国国债债务管理策略缺乏可预测性可能导致借贷成本上升。你听到了什么？
I GUESS THE SHORT TAKEAWAY IS THIS IS JUST A DROP IN THE OCEAN. YOU’VE GOT A, YOU KNOW, $32 BILLION SIZED TREASURY MARKET. DEBT TO G.D.P. CLOSING IN ON 100%. YOU’VE GOT BUDGET DEFICIT RUNNING AT +6%
我想简短总结就是这只是沧海一粟。你知道，有一个320亿美元规模的国债市场。债务占GDP的比例接近100%。预算赤字运行在+6%以上。
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