美债回购推动涨势降温，美国公共债务突破40万亿美元
Buyback-fueled Treasury Rally Cools; US Public Debt Hits $40T | Bloomberg Brief 08/20/2026
美国财政部意外扩大长债回购属已落地的政策操作，直接影响美债收益率曲线与全球资产定价，建议关注其对长端利率、美元及新兴市场资金流向的后续影响。
VONNIE: IT IS FIVE A.M. IN NEW YORK CITY. LET'S GET YOU SET UP FOR THE DAY. THE BOND RALLY TAKING A BREATHER AS THE MARKET DIGESTS SECRETARY BESSENT’S INTERVENTION IN THE BOND MARKET WITH US -- THE SURPRISE INCREASE IN BUYBACK. INCHING CLOSER TO THE DEBT CEILING. PRESIDENT TRUMP PLANS FOR INCREASED ECONOMIC WARFARE AGAINST IRAN, THREATENING TO TARGET ITS TRADING PARTNERS. LET'S GET A CHECK ON HOW MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD REACTED TO THE TREASURY PLANS.
冯妮：现在是纽约时间凌晨五点。让我们为您开启新的一天。债券涨势暂歇，市场正在消化贝森特财长对债券市场的干预——回购规模意外增加。逼近债务上限。特朗普总统计划加大对伊朗的经济战力度，威胁要针对其贸易伙伴。让我们看看全球市场对财政部计划作何反应。
HERE IS WINNIE HSU WITH THE LATEST. WINNIE: IT IS REALLY ALL ABOUT THAT SURPRISE U.S. TREASURY BUYBACK. WE ARE SEEING ASIAN STOCKS TRACKING U.S. TREASURY IS HIGHER. WE SEE THAT IN JAPAN'S 40 YEAR YIELD SPECIFICALLY, DOWN AS MUCH AS 10 BASIS POINTS EARLIER TODAY. IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A PRETTY SOLID DEMAND COMING THROUGH FROM THE JGB BOT OPTION EARLIER TODAY AS INVESTORS SEE THE CURRENT YIELD AS RELATIVELY ATTRACTIVE.
许温妮带来最新消息。温妮：关键确实在于美国财政部那项意外的回购计划。我们看到亚洲股市跟随美债走高。具体来看，日本40年期收益率今日早间一度下跌多达10个基点。今日早些时候日本国债买入期权也带来了相当稳健的需求，投资者认为当前收益率相对具有吸引力。
TAKE A LOOK AT HOW THAT IS TRANSLATING INTO THE GAINS OF ASIAN STOCKS TODAY, WE ARE SEEING MSCI ASIA UP ABOUT 1.7%, HAVING ITS BEST DAY IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS. THAT IS COMING AFTER TWO DAYS OF DECLINES ALREADY. TECH STOCKS LEADING GAINS TO BE -- SO WE SEE KOSPI GAINING ABOUT 6%. TODD GAINER SUCH AS SAMSUNG WHICH HAS ANNOUNCED SHAREHOLDER PLANS. VONNIE: BECOMING THE FIRST ONES TO KICK THE SHARE BUYBACK PROGRAM OFF. THANK YOU.
看看这如何转化为今日亚洲股市的涨幅，MSCI亚洲指数上涨约1.7%，创下约两周来最佳表现。此前已连续两日下跌。科技股领涨——我们看到韩国KOSPI指数上涨约6%。三星等个股上涨，该公司已宣布股东回报计划。冯妮：成为率先启动股票回购计划的公司之一。谢谢。
LET'S GO TO LONDON FOR A LOOK AT EUROPE AND ALEX MORGAN. ALEX: LET'S HAVE A WHISTLE STOCK TOUR OF EUROPE. BLOWING THROUGH BOND YIELDS AFTER THE INTERVENTION FROM U.S. TREASURIES. YIELDS PRETTY MUCH FLAT ACROSS THE CONTINENT. CONTRAST THAT WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WHERE WE SAW BUNDS AND FRENCH 10 YEARS REACHING LEVELS WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN YEARS. BENCHMARK STOXX 600 ON COURSE FOR ITS WORST RUN SINCE 2023. FTSE 100 IS ALSO GETTING A DRAG THIS MORNING FROM MINERS, OIL STOCKS BUT IT IS REALLY IF THURSDAY IN AUGUST WITH THE EQUITY'S IN EUROPE.
让我们连线伦敦，看看欧洲市场情况，有请亚历克斯·摩根。亚历克斯：让我们快速巡览欧洲股市。在美国财政部干预之后，债券收益率应声而下。欧洲大陆各国债收益率基本持平。这与本周初形成鲜明对比，当时德国国债和法国10年期国债收益率触及多年未见的高位。基准斯托克600指数正走向自2023年以来最差连跌走势。富时100指数今晨也受到矿业股和石油股的拖累，但欧洲股市今天确实像是八月的星期四一样清淡。
VONNIE: ALEX MORGAN IN LONDON. IT IS ALMOST LIKE A MINI FISCAL OPERATION TWIST INTERVENTION IN ORDER TO BRING DOWN YIELDS ON THE LONG END OF THE CURVE. WE WILL SEE IF THAT CONTINUES TODAY. TUESDAY INTRADAY WE HIT 5.33 AND CHANGE ON THE 30 YEAR YIELD. THIS MORNING, UP THREE BASIS POINTS TO 5.22 AFTER THE TREASURY ANNOUNCED SURPRISINGLY IT WOULD DOUBLE THE BUYBACK PROGRAM FOR 20, 230 YEAR DEBT. ON THE FRONT END, YOU DID SEE A MOVE BUT ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE IT.
冯妮：伦敦的亚历克斯·摩根。这几乎就像一次小规模的财政扭转操作干预，目的是压低收益率曲线长端的收益率。我们将看看今天这一趋势是否延续。周二盘中，30年期收益率触及5.33%附近。今晨，在财政部意外宣布将20年期和30年期债务回购计划规模翻倍后，收益率上升3个基点至5.22%。在短端，你确实看到了一些波动，但完全无法与之相比。
THE FOMC MINUTES CAME OUT AND SHOWED A VERY DIVIDED COMMITTEE. WE DIDN'T SO MUCH SEE A MARKET MOVE AFTER THAT. IT CLEARLY WAS THIS MOVE FROM TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT. PERHAPS NOT AS PREDICTABLE AS HE MAKES OUT THE INSTITUTION TO BE. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE INTERPLAY -- THE IMPLICATIONS FOR OTHER ASSET CLASSES BECAUSE THE DOLLAR IS SEEING AN IMPACT. WE ARE SEEING A LOT OF DOLLAR WEAKNESS TODAY, PARTICULARLY THE SAFE HAVEN OF THE SWISS CURRENCY.
联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要公布，显示委员会内部意见分歧严重。之后我们并未看到市场有太大波动。这显然是财政部长贝森特带来的变动。也许这个机构并不像他所说的那样可预测。让我们看看这种互动——对其他资产类别的影响，因为美元正受到影响。今天我们看到美元大幅走弱，尤其是相对于避险货币瑞士法郎。
BRENT CRUDE UP TO 93.60 ON CONTINUED ECONOMIC WARFARE THREATS ON DONALD TRUMP. YOU HAVE TO WONDER IF GOLD -- IT WAS ONLY THE BEGINNING OF THIS MONTH THAT GOLD STARTED MOVING HIGHER. WE ARE HUGGING $4500 ON GOLD. BITCOIN, $71,000. NOT FULLY THE TREASURY STORY BECAUSE BITCOIN WAS STARTING TO STIR YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME. WE WERE TALKING ABOUT PRESIDENT TRUMP TALKING ABOUT THE CLARITY ACT AGAIN. IT GOT A MASSIVE BOOST AND OBVIOUSLY $1 BILLION WORTH OF SHORT POSITIONS LIQUIDATED IN ABOUT AN HOUR.
布伦特原油升至93.60美元，因对唐纳德·特朗普持续的经济战威胁。你不得不怀疑黄金——就在本月初黄金才开始走高。我们正紧贴4500美元的黄金价格。比特币，71,000美元。这并不完全是国债的故事，因为比特币在昨天早上的这个时候已经开始蠢蠢欲动。我们当时在讨论特朗普总统再次提及《清晰法案》。它获得了巨大的提振，显然价值10亿美元的空头头寸在大约一小时内被清算。
THEN, STOCK INDEX FUTURES. WE ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED AT THE MOMENT AFTER SMALL MOVES HIGHER AND LOWER ON THE TWO MAJOR INDICES. LET'S GET TO SOME INDIVIDUAL MOVERS. LET'S GO TO CHLOE MELEY. CHLOE: GOOD MORNING. WE ARE SEEING A BIG DROP FROM ADJOURNED AT THIS MORNING AFTER THE MASSIVE RALLY YESTERDAY WHICH WAS DUE TO MODERNA AND MERCK REVIVING HOPES FOR A VACCINE. QUITE A SHARP REVERSAL AND DOWN ABOUT 11% IN PREMARKET TRADING.
然后，股指期货。在两大指数小幅上下波动后，我们目前基本持平。让我们看看一些个股动态。让我们连线克洛伊·梅利。克洛伊：早上好。在昨天因莫德纳和默克重燃疫苗希望而大涨之后，今天早上我们看到大幅下跌。这是一个相当急剧的反转，盘前交易中下跌约11%。
MOVING ONTO CRYPTO LINKED TO STOCKS WHICH ARE UP THIS MORNING AFTER TRUMP MET WITH A BUNCH OF CRYPTO EXECUTIVES. WE HAVE IS BITCOIN SQUEEZE WHICH IS LEADING THE SHARE GAINS. STRATEGY UP ABOUT 8%. WE ALSO HAVE HYPER LIQUID WHICH IS UP AS TRUMP SAID WERE YOU -- REGULATORS ARE WORKING TO BRING THIS CRYPTO PLATFORM INTO THE U.S. TAKING SOME OF THIS OFFSHORE INFRASTRUCTURE ONSHORE. UP ABOUT 11% FOR HYPER LIQUID. VONNIE: NEW NARRATIVES IN TOWN.
接下来是与加密货币相关的股票，在特朗普会见了一批加密货币高管后，这些股票今早上涨。比特币挤压领涨。Strategy上涨约8%。Hyper Liquid也上涨，因为特朗普表示——监管机构正在努力将这个加密货币平台引入美国，将部分离岸基础设施转移到岸上。Hyper Liquid上涨约11%。冯妮：新叙事登场。
CHLOE MELEY THERE. ALSO COMING UP, MORE ON THE TREASURY'S BUYBACK PLANS WITH SOPHIE HUYNH. SO, U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS MOSTLY HOLY GOING TO THE GAINS AFTER THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE TREASURY'S PLANS TO BOOST BUYBACKS OF LONGER DATED BONDS. BUT EVENTUALLY A TURNING POINT WITH THE WASHINGTON TAKING A MORE ACTIVE ROLE IN KEEPING THE BORROWING COSTS DOWN. LET'S GET MORE WITH VEN RAM. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT TO EXPECT FROM SECRETARY BESSENT.
以上是克洛伊·梅利的报道。接下来，更多关于财政部回购计划的内容，由索菲·黄带来。因此，在财政部宣布计划增加较长期债券回购后，美国政府债券大多走高。但最终，随着华盛顿在压低借贷成本方面扮演更积极的角色，这成为一个转折点。让我们与文·拉姆了解更多。这正是贝森特部长所预期的。
HE'S ALREADY TALKED ABOUT SHIFTING THE BURDEN TO THE SHORTER END OF THE CURVE WHEN IT COMES TO ISSUING DEBT AND THEN HE DOES THIS. IT IS NOT -- NOT THAT UNPREDICTABLE WHEN HIS PAST LIFE AS A TRADER, THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN ONE OF HIS OBSESSIONS. VEN: IF BESSENT FANCIES HIMSELF AS AMERICA'S TOP BOND SALESMAN, HE IS CERTAINLY MAKING THE EFFORT. WHAT HE'S DONE IS ESSENTIALLY PUT A BAND-AID OVER A BLEEDING ARTERY. WHAT IS HE TRYING TO DO?
他已经谈过在发行债务时把负担转向曲线较短端，然后他就这么做了。这并非——并非那么不可预测，考虑到他过去作为交易员的经历，这本来就会是他的执念之一。VEN：如果贝森特自认为是美国顶级债券推销员，那他确实在努力。他所做的本质上是在流血的动脉上贴了创可贴。他到底想干什么？
HE TRYING TO SALVAGE LONGER-TERM SECURITIES BY DOUBLING THE BUYBACK ON THEM, THE MONTHLY PURCHASES. THIS OPERATION TWIST IS LIKELY TO FAIL BECAUSE THERE ARE TWO REASONS WHY YIELDS ARE INCREASING IN RECENT MONTHS. ONE IS THE FACT INFLATION HAS BEEN UNCONTAINED, RUNNING ON TARGET FOR SEVERAL YEARS. THE FED IS NOT DOING ANYTHING ABOUT IT. THE OTHER FLANK OF THIS STORY COMES FROM THE TREASURY ITSELF WHERE FAILING TO TACKLE DEFICITS IN A MEANINGFUL WAY.
他试图通过加倍回购长期证券（每月购买量）来挽救它们。这种扭转操作很可能会失败，因为最近几个月收益率上升有两个原因。一是通胀一直未受控制，多年来一直高于目标。美联储对此毫无作为。另一方面的故事来自财政部本身，未能以有意义的方式解决赤字问题。
AS WE JUST MENTIONED, PUBLIC DEBT HAS REACHED 40 TRILLION IN THE U.S. THAT IS SEVERAL TIMES THE U.S. GDP. YOU HAVE A DEADLY COMBINATION OF UNCONTAINED INFLATION AND UNCONTAINED DEFICITS. THAT ESSENTIALLY MEANS HIGHER TERM PREMIUMS. UNTIL THESE FUNDAMENTAL NARRATIVES ARE CHANGED, NOTHING VIS-A-VIS TREASURY SENTIMENT WILL CHANGE. THIS IS A SHORT-TERM MOVE, IT WILL NOT WORK IN THE LONG-TERM. VONNIE: IF ANYTHING, IT HURTS THE DOLLAR MORE THAN IT HELPS THE TREASURY MARKET.
正如我们刚才提到的，美国公共债务已达到40万亿美元，这是美国GDP的几倍。你面临的是未受控制的通胀和未受控制的赤字这一致命组合。这基本上意味着更高的期限溢价。除非这些基本叙事改变，否则国债市场情绪不会有任何变化。这是短期举措，长期不会奏效。VONNIE：如果要说有什么影响，它对美元的伤害大于对国债市场的帮助。
IF ALL OF THOSE ELEMENTS ARE AT PLAY INCLUDING SHORT-TERM ISSUANCE SURGING, WHAT DOES THE FED DO? INFLATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM. WE KNOW THAT MANY ON THE COMMITTEE WERE LOOKING POTENTIALLY TOWARDS A HIKE AT LEAST, IF NOT THAT PARTICULAR MONTH. WHAT DOES THE FED DO NOW? HOW DOES IT RAISE? VEN: THE FED IS IN A TIGHT SPOT BECAUSE ON THE ONE HAND -- AS YOU MENTIONED, THE FED MINUTES SHOWED A DIVIDED FED. IF THEY WERE NOT INCLINED TO RAISE RATES BEFORE THE LATEST JOBS DATA, THEY ARE LESS LIKELY TO DO SO AFTER THE JOBS DATA WHICH IS SHOWING THE DICHOTOMIES.
如果所有这些因素都在起作用，包括短期发行激增，美联储会怎么做？通胀将继续成为问题。我们知道委员会中许多人可能至少倾向于加息，即使不是在那个特定月份。美联储现在会怎么做？它如何加息？VEN：美联储处境艰难，因为一方面——正如你提到的，美联储会议纪要显示美联储存在分歧。如果他们在最新就业数据之前不倾向于加息，那么在这些显示分歧的就业数据之后，他们更不可能加息。
UNTIL THE ECONOMY COMES THROUGH A LEAN PATCH, IF THE FED WILL DO ANYTHING -- IN EFFECT, YET MORE UNCONTAINED INFLATION WILL ABOVE TARGET. CORE PCE LAST YEAR WAS HOVERING AROUND 2.8%. NOW, IS 3.3%. SO, THE IMPLICATIONS ARE CLEAR. HIGHER FOR LONGER INFLATION ON HIGHER FOR LONGER RATES. VONNIE: BLOOMBERG'S VEN RAM GIVING US LOADS OF CONTEXT. TUNE IN FOR INTERVIEW WITH THE SAN FRANCISCO FED PRESIDENT MARY DALY AT 8:30 A.M.
在经济度过疲软期之前，如果美联储会采取任何行动——实际上，更多未受控制的通胀将高于目标。去年核心PCE徘徊在2.8%左右。现在，是3.3%。所以，影响是明确的。更长时间的高通胀对应更长时间的高利率。VONNIE：彭博社的VEN RAM为我们提供了大量背景信息。请于上午8:30收听对旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利的采访。
EASTERN. BRENT CRUDE ABOVE THE $93 A BARREL AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP PLANS TO SUBJECT IRAN TO ECONOMIC D-DAY. NOT SPECIFYING WHICH MEASURES HE WILL TAKE WITH THREATENING TO TARGET TEHRAN'S TRADING PARTNERS. IRAN SAYING IT IS A DIVERGENCE FROM -- DIVERSION FROM AMERICA'S OWN CRISES. STUART, THIS HAS NOT BEEN CODIFIED IN ANY FORMAL WAY YET. IF IT DOES GET DONE, IS THAT SPECIFICALLY TELLING, SAY CHINA, THAT IT CANNOT DO BUSINESS WITH IRAN AND WILL THOSE KIND OF TRADING PARTNERS LISTEN TO THE UNITED STATES?
东部。在特朗普总统计划对伊朗实施经济“D日”行动后，布伦特原油价格突破每桶93美元。他未具体说明将采取哪些措施，但威胁要针对德黑兰的贸易伙伴。伊朗表示，这是美国自身危机的一种转移——一种转移注意力的做法。斯图尔特，这尚未以任何正式形式成文。如果真的实施，这是否明确告诉中国等国家不能与伊朗做生意，而这些贸易伙伴会听从美国吗？
STUART: IT IS A COMPLICATED ANSWER TO THAT. NUMBER ONE, WILL OF THESE ACTUALLY BE SECONDARY SANCTIONS AS MOST PEOPLE WILL UNDERSTAND IT FOR DOES IT STAY AT THE RHETORIC LEVEL AND APPLY PRESSURE THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS? VERY HARD TO SAY. WE HAVE SEEN NO DOCUMENTATION OUT OF THE TREASURY. UNTIL WE DO, IT IS HARD TO GIVE YOU A FIRM ANSWER. IN TERMS OF THE TRADING PARTNERS, WE SAW THE POWERFUL STATEMENT FROM THE UAE YESTERDAY WHICH WAS NOTABLE IN TERMS OF A VERY FIRM COMMITMENT TO BASICALLY CURB TRADE, FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS AND SO ON WITH
斯图尔特：这个问题答案很复杂。第一，这些措施是否真的会成为大多数人理解的次级制裁，还是仅停留在口头层面，通过社交媒体帖子施压？很难说。我们尚未看到财政部的任何文件。在此之前，很难给你一个确切答案。就贸易伙伴而言，我们昨天看到了阿联酋的强硬声明，这在承诺基本上遏制贸易、金融交易等方面非常显著。
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