全球债券抛售：长端收益率逼近数十年高位
Breaking Down the Global Bond Selloff
Talk about this bond market. Longer dated bond yields are pushing closer to multi decade highs across the globe. Ira Jersey of Bloomberg Intelligence has been breaking it down. Ira, welcome and good morning. It's difficult to break down one single driver dominating this move. What would you pick out this morning? Yeah. Yeah. I think this morning, we're on the back of Japan's pretty big move overnight, you know, where you saw seven basis point sell off in Japanese thirty year yields.
来谈谈这个债券市场。全球范围内，长期债券收益率正逼近数十年来的高位。彭博情报的Ira Jersey一直在分析这一现象。Ira，欢迎你，早上好。要单独指出一个主导这次走势的因素很困难。今天早上你会选哪个因素呢？是的，是的。我认为今早，我们是在日本隔夜大幅波动之后，你知道，日本三十年期国债收益率卖出了七个基点的下跌。
You know, the fiscal situation for, you know, what I call the g three plus of Germany, UK, Japan, US is really not particularly good. So I think that that's, you know, certainly leaning into this is that fiscal situation. But also that growth is pretty decent. Right? Like, if if you look globally, why are are, you know, central banks raising interest rates or thinking about raising interest rates? You know, a big part of it is is that the economy is is doing fine.
你知道，对于我所说的G3+（德国、英国、日本、美国）的财政状况，真的不是特别好。所以我认为，这肯定是在向这个财政状况倾斜。但同时也因为经济增长相当不错。对吧？比如，如果你放眼全球，为什么央行在加息或考虑加息？你知道，很大一部分原因是经济表现良好。
Ira, do you see any corrective action on the horizon? Of course, you might not need it. At some point, this can become self limiting and unsustainable, and people come back into bonds because the price is attractive enough. But from your standpoint, do you think you see corrective action first? I I don't. You know, I I can certainly see a leak wider and and or leak higher higher in yields, just about everywhere. You know, for The US in particular, John, one of the things that I would point out is, you know, this is the first time basically in two decades where there's been real alternatives for non US investors to go somewhere and find some yield.
Ira，你看到地平线上有任何修正行动吗？当然，你可能不需要它。在某个时候，这可能会变得自我限制和不可持续，人们会因为价格足够吸引人而回到债券市场。但从你的角度来看，你认为你会先看到修正行动吗？我不这么认为。你知道，我当然可以看到收益率在几乎所有地方都可能进一步扩大或走高。你知道，特别是对于美国，John，我想指出的其中一点是，这基本上是二十年来第一次，非美国投资者有了真正的替代选择，可以在其他地方找到一些收益率。
Right? So if you go if you're a Taiwanese insurance company, you can now buy Japanese government bonds at yields that are higher than The US after you hedge their currency risk. So so so this is kind of a weird dynamic for The US in in that we're not necessarily the high yielder anymore, which we've benefited from in many ways over the last couple of decades when a lot of other developed market countries had negative yields or extremely low thirty year yields.
对吧？所以如果你是一个台湾保险公司，你现在可以购买日本政府债券，在对冲货币风险后，其收益率高于美国。所以这对美国来说是一种奇怪的动态，因为我们不再是高收益者了，而在过去几十年里，当许多其他发达市场国家有负收益率或极低的三十年收益率时，我们在很多方面都从中受益。
Ira, we've been just shying a board there of the global bond backdrop, and you mentioned Japan. Can we bring that board up again? Just wanna bring up this number. Ira, for the new grads entering Wall Street in the coming weeks, can we bring up the the Japanese thirty year and just sit on that board and just look at the yield that we're seeing? Ira, the thirty year yield in Japan, can you explain to people coming into Wall Street, coming into markets, how unusual it is given your career and how far it goes back to see a four handle on thirty year JGBs?
Ira，我们刚才在讨论全球债券背景时提到了日本。我们能再调出那块板吗？我想提一下这个数字。Ira，对于未来几周即将进入华尔街的新毕业生，我们能调出日本三十年国债，就停留在那块板上，看看我们看到的收益率吗？Ira，日本三十年国债收益率，你能向进入华尔街、进入市场的人们解释一下，鉴于你的职业生涯和它追溯的历史，看到三十年日本国债收益率达到4%是多么不寻常吗？
Well, John, we're actually back to where it was at the beginning of my career. But after spending, you you know, basically two decades at with 2% handles in terms of thirty year thirty year bond yields in Japan. So, you know, and and the Japanese bond market, keep in mind, is the second largest bond market in the world. And because of that, it also tends to be one of the more liquid. Now granted, the the BOJ, the Bank of Japan, owns a lot of that market, but they've also been selling their bonds, right, and and not reinvesting.
嗯，John，我们实际上回到了我职业生涯开始时的水平。但在经历了大约二十年的日本三十年国债收益率在2%左右的时期之后。所以，你知道，而且日本债券市场，请记住，是世界第二大债券市场。正因为如此，它也往往是流动性较强的市场之一。当然，日本央行（BOJ）持有该市场的很大一部分，但他们也在出售其债券，对吧，并且不再进行再投资。
And and the Japanese government is still issuing a whole lot of long bonds. And not only thirty years, they even have forty year debt outstanding. Right? So so you have this situation where where when you look around globally where to invest, you're probably underweight Japan versus the rest of rest of the developed world just given where their yields have been for so long because they've been unattractive. Look. I was I I used to work for a mutual fund company where we used to not buy negative yielding debt.
而且日本政府仍在发行大量长期债券。不仅仅是三十年，他们甚至还有未偿还的四十年期债务，对吧？所以，你面临这种情况，当你环顾全球寻找投资方向时，鉴于日本收益率长期处于低位，因为它们一直缺乏吸引力，你可能相对于其他发达市场低配了日本。你看，我曾经在一家共同基金公司工作，我们过去不购买负收益率的债务。
Well, there's no more negative yielding debt. So if you stayed away from that for for the better part of ten years, you're now, you know, have to add some of that into your portfolio, which means that you're not gonna be buying The US. You might not be buying The UK.
嗯，现在不再有负收益率债务了。所以，如果你在近十年里一直避开它，现在，你知道，你必须将其中一些纳入你的投资组合，这意味着你不会去买美国国债。你可能也不会买英国国债。
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