比特币波动率新低，未平仓合约创8个月高点
Bitcoin is LITERALLY about to EXPLODE! (Explained in 8 minutes)
We've lived through more brutal drawdowns. It's to be expected. We were at an all-time high in October.
我们经历过更残酷的回撤。这是意料之中的。去年十月我们曾处于历史最高点。
Bitcoin is literally about to explode. And in this video, I'll prove it to you. Give me five minutes. Ethereum, too. By the way, my name is Aaron. This is Altcoin Daily. Crypto is literally at generational buys right now. Don't you wish you could go back and buy as much as you could last bare market? Well, you can because we are now 9 to 10 months in to this bare market and it is painfully obvious that Bitcoin is bottoming.
比特币真的要爆发了。在这个视频里，我会证明给你看。给我五分钟。以太坊也一样。顺便说一句，我叫Aaron，这里是Altcoin Daily。加密货币现在正处于世代级别的买入时机。你难道不希望自己能回到上一个熊市尽可能多地买入吗？好吧，你现在可以了，因为我们现在已经处于这个熊市9到10个月了，而且痛苦的是，很明显比特币正在筑底。
My whole timeline is bearish right now. Every analyst, although they might be long-term bullish, is predicting one final flush out to complete the 4-year cycle. There is a lot of fear, uncertainty, doubt, boredom, and depression in crypto right now. So, you would think that Bitcoin's biggest holder and advocate would be feeling uncertain and worried. Something I love about Sailor is he always has a long-term outlook.
我现在的整个时间线都是看跌的。每个分析师，尽管他们可能长期看涨，都在预测最后一波清洗以完成4年周期。现在加密货币领域充满了恐惧、不确定性、怀疑、无聊和沮丧。所以，你会认为比特币最大的持有者和倡导者会感到不确定和担忧。我喜欢Sailor的一点是他总是有长期眼光。
And he gives a lot of perspective here. Sailor was asked whether underperforming this heavily means he might be wrong about the whole Bitcoin thing. And he says, "No, I feel pretty comfortable with Bitcoin right now." And I love how he articulates why. Just 9 months ago, Bitcoin was at an all-time high. Who's to say that Bitcoin won't be at a new all-time high 9 months from now? Or maybe it takes a couple years. Either way, there's plenty of reason to be bullish.
他在这里提供了很多视角。Sailor被问到，表现如此糟糕是否意味着他对整个比特币的看法可能是错的。他说：“不，我现在对比特币感到相当安心。”我喜欢他阐述原因的方式。就在9个月前，比特币处于历史最高点。谁能说比特币9个月后不会达到新的历史最高点呢？或者可能需要几年时间。无论如何，都有很多看涨的理由。
Michael Sailor explains, "Is there ever a point where you start questioning the entire thesis of Bitcoin when it has been underperforming so heavily? When you there's the old overlay of the M2 supply and Bitcoin and it's the gap is getting larger and larger and larger. Is there like a point where you think how are we going to proceed from here or might I be wrong on my teases?
Michael Sailor解释说：“当比特币表现如此糟糕时，有没有一个时刻你开始质疑整个比特币的理论？当你看到M2供应量和比特币的旧叠加图，差距越来越大、越来越大、越来越大。有没有一个时刻你会想，我们接下来该怎么走，或者我可能对我的论点有误？”
No, I feel pretty comfortable with Bitcoin right now and I make the point that we've been in the business since August of 2020 and if you pull up the Bitcoin chart since August of 2020, what you'll see is five major draw downs in five years. So, it's not uncommon for there to be a major draw down each year. This draw down is 50%. But uh the draw down in 2122 was 75%. So we've lived through more brutal draw downs and it's to be expected.
不，我现在对比特币感到相当安心，我要指出的是，我们自2020年8月以来一直在这个行业里，如果你调出2020年8月以来的比特币图表，你会看到五年内有五次大幅回撤。所以，每年出现一次大幅回撤并不罕见。这次回撤是50%。但是，2122年的回撤是75%。所以我们经历过更残酷的回撤，这是意料之中的。
We were at an all-time high in October.
去年十月我们曾处于历史最高点。
Yeah. And so, you know, go back nine months and Bitcoin is an all-time high. What we're doing, you know, we we do with a minimum of four-year time horizon, but normally a 10-year time horizon. Ethereum is looking incredibly bullish, forming a 5year launchpad. Every other time Ethereum has coiled up like this, it has always exploded higher. This will be a violent repricing. It's obvious Ethereum is undervalued today.
是的。所以，你知道，回溯九个月前，比特币正处于历史高点。我们做的是，你知道，我们至少以四年为时间跨度，但通常是十年时间跨度。以太坊看起来极其看涨，正在形成一个五年期的发射台。以太坊每次这样盘整蓄势，最终都会爆发式上涨。这将是一次剧烈的重新定价。很明显，以太坊如今被低估了。
It's obvious not only from a price perspective, but from an adoption perspective. Wall Street, Tradfi, the world is literally adopting the tech for stable coins, for tokenization, for DeFi, for a lot of things. Former Black Rockck, now Ethereum Treasury Company, explains why he is so bullish on Ethereum. He sees all his Black Rockck peers and Wall Street peers getting into it. So, he knows what's going to happen.
很明显，不仅从价格角度看，从采用角度看也是如此。华尔街、传统金融界，整个世界都在真正采用这项技术，用于稳定币、代币化、DeFi 以及许多其他用途。前贝莱德高管、现以太坊财务库公司负责人，解释了他为何如此看好以太坊。他看到所有贝莱德同行和华尔街同行都在进入这个领域。所以，他知道接下来会发生什么。
To be honest with you, at this moment, when Ethereum feels like it's going on offense, look at the scoreboard and compare it across stable coin adoption, tokenized real world assets, and and [clears throat] DeFi. I would be spending my time and money, and I'm doing both to drive the institutional adoption. We're at a moment that matters. The world's largest institutions are going from tokenizing denovo or brand new products.
说实话，此时此刻，当以太坊感觉要发起攻势时，看看记分牌，对比一下稳定币采用、代币化现实世界资产，以及（清嗓子）DeFi 这些方面。我会投入我的时间和金钱，而且我两者都在做，以推动机构采用。我们正处在一个关键的时刻。全球最大的机构正从全新代币化产品或全新产品开始。
When I was at BlackRock, we took a couple of years to plan and get our bidden to be the largest tokenized fund in the world, but it took a couple of years. A year and a half after I left BlackRock, they're tokenizing existing funds, money market funds with 8 billion dollars of existing assets. That is like 30% of all tokenization happening in one shot. And so I'd be very very focused on supporting those use cases. And then I'd also be very focused on um building a differentiated offering in Ethereum for Aentic.
我在贝莱德时，我们花了几年时间规划并争取成为全球最大的代币化基金，但那花了好几年。我离开贝莱德一年半后，他们正在将现有基金、货币市场基金进行代币化，这些基金拥有 80 亿美元的现有资产。这相当于一次性完成了所有代币化的约 30%。所以我会非常非常专注于支持这些用例。然后我也会非常专注于为 Aentic 在以太坊上构建差异化的产品。
I know it sounds like a cliche, but if you're dominating stable coins, which is the money layer, you're dominating in tokenized real world assets, which is the asset exposure layer. It's not a new asset class. And DeFi and onchain finance is where a lot of the execution is happening. The agentic layer is just the automation layer that's going to bring billions of new users to Ethereum. They may be agents, but they're users and they're going to transact and they want decentralized real.
我知道这听起来像老生常谈，但如果你主导了稳定币——那是货币层，你就主导了代币化现实世界资产——那是资产敞口层。这不是一种新的资产类别。而 DeFi 和链上金融是大量执行发生的地方。代理层只是自动化层，它将为以太坊带来数十亿新用户。他们可能是代理，但他们是用户，他们会进行交易，而且他们想要去中心化的真实资产。
So, let's talk about why Bitcoin is going to explode. Bitcoin volatility is at all-time lows again. V compression like this resolves in a burst and history says upward. It happened even at the 2025 peak right before the whales kept the price at 125. Apathy in Bitcoin has always been the best buying opportunity. And make no mistake about it, Bitcoin volatility is coming. I can't see Bitcoin chopping around the 60 to 64K range much longer.
那么，我们来谈谈为什么比特币即将爆发。比特币的波动率再次创下历史新低。这种V型压缩最终会以爆发告终，而历史表明方向是向上的。即使在2025年的峰值时期，就在鲸鱼将价格维持在125之前，也发生过这种情况。对比特币的冷漠态度一直是绝佳的买入时机。毫无疑问，比特币的波动即将到来。我看不出比特币会在60到64K区间徘徊太久。
The market is in a very low liquidity state per the sellside risk metric and six months of time pain has been paid following the bare market price pain event in February. Sometimes for the market the worst thing to happen is the price pain. Sometimes for the market the worst thing to happen is the time pain. The price pain happened since October of last year. Then we switched into time pain. I'm bullish here. Volatility soon.
根据卖方风险指标，市场处于极低流动性状态，而自二月份的熊市价格痛苦事件以来，已经经历了六个月的“时间痛苦”支付。有时对市场来说，最糟糕的事情是价格痛苦。有时对市场来说，最糟糕的事情是时间痛苦。自去年十月以来，价格痛苦已经发生。然后我们转向了时间痛苦。我在这里看涨。波动即将来临。
And again, my whole timeline is bearish right now. My whole timeline simultaneously thinks Bitcoin is about to flush out right here, but also Bitcoin flushes out sometime in the next 2 3 months. Are you longing? Are you shorting? If you trade crypto, you can make more money, especially on days when the market goes sideways. Huge bonuses for trading and signing up on WEX exchange right now. 50% deposit bonus on your first 100 plus.
再说一次，我整个时间线上现在都是看跌的。我的整个时间线同时认为比特币即将在这里被洗盘，但也认为比特币会在未来两三个月内被洗盘。你是做多还是做空？如果你交易加密货币，你可以赚更多的钱，尤其是在市场横盘的日子里。现在在WEX交易所交易和注册有巨额奖励。首笔100美元以上存款可获得50%的存款奖金。
If you're new to the exchange, 10,000 plus in welcome rewards plus right now, and this is always changing, but right now $500 bonus for 100 people who just are trading on WEX. I'll leave links to this below. And this is interesting. Bitcoin open interest just hit an 8month high. Eight months. Open interest has now surpassed the levels seen before the 10-10 crash. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is still consolidating around 63,000.
如果你是交易所的新用户，有超过10,000美元的欢迎奖励，而且现在——这总是在变化——但现在是给100位在WEX上交易的人500美元奖金。我会在下面留下链接。这很有趣。比特币的未平仓合约刚刚触及八个月高点。八个月。未平仓合约现已超过10-10崩盘前的水平。与此同时，比特币仍在63,000附近盘整。
What this means is leverage is piling up while price goes nowhere. Again, a big move is brewing. Of course, very possible Bitcoin falls into the 50s sometime this year. That is totally possible. It's also very possible that Bitcoin is bottoming now. Either way, we are in the bottoming zone. That is obvious. This is akin to 2022 in crypto or 2018 in crypto. This is the depths of the bare market right now. Yet, Bitcoin demand is quietly making a comeback after months of deeply negative apparent demand.
这意味着杠杆在价格不动的情况下不断堆积。再次强调，一场大动作正在酝酿中。当然，比特币今年某个时候跌入50多美元区间是非常可能的。那完全有可能。比特币现在触底也是非常可能的。无论哪种方式，我们都处于筑底区域。这是显而易见的。这类似于2022年的加密货币或2018年的加密货币。现在正是熊市的深处。然而，在数月深度负面的表观需求之后，比特币的需求正在悄然复苏。
The trend is now reversing fast. But there is one signal that I'm still waiting for. A flip back into the positive demand. That would be the first major confirmation that buyers are taking control again. We're going to keep you updated every step of the way. If you appreciate us coming at you on a Sunday over the summer, keeping you informed on a daily basis, make sure you subscribe to our channel. We show you every day that crypto has a future.
这一趋势目前正在迅速逆转。但我仍在等待一个信号——需求重新转为正增长。那将是买家重新掌控局面的首个重要确认。我们将全程为您持续更新。如果您欣赏我们在夏日周日为您播报，并每日为您提供信息，请务必订阅我们的频道。我们每天向您展示加密货币拥有未来。
And I guarantee you those around today, last month, next month, these are the people that next cycle top buyers will call lucky.
我向您保证，今天、上个月、下个月在场的人，这些就是下一轮周期顶部买家会称之为幸运儿的人。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力