比特币：凛冬将至，波动率压缩至历史低位

Hey everyone, and thanks for checking back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, the winds of winter. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on intothecryptoverse premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Link is in the description below. You'll get access to a lot of charts that we use to navigate these crypto market cycles, as well as charts for stocks, uh commodities, and and macros.

So, make sure to check that out. Link's in the description below. As a reminder, ticket prices for the first ITC conference will be going up on September 1st, so make sure you guys get your ticket if you would like to attend. Now, we did these videos 4 years ago, where we said Bitcoin, the winds of winter. It was kind of like throughout 2022, we made these videos. Well, here we are. We find ourselves in 2026. Um you know, Bitcoin's trading around 62 to 63,000, and it just feels kind of dead.

Right? Social interest is trending down. If you look at our social risk metric, that you can follow along on the website with, that's been trending down. Bitcoin is getting squeezed essentially between the 200-week moving average and the bear market resistance band. My guess is that it it eventually breaks down kind of in line with how prior cycles played out, which would sort of necessitate, perhaps, like a an eventual correction in stocks.

So, I don't really think that correction in stocks is going to happen until September, and probably not even until mid to late September. But normally, Bitcoin shows weakness before stocks do. So, the reason why it it it's so hard right now is because you have Bitcoin just going absolutely nowhere and the stock market printing new highs. But again, this is why index funds are, in my opinion, not financial advice, have always been a great part of my portfolio because they do generally trend higher.

Not always, right? Sometimes they'll go down, but it it allows you to breathe a little bit, especially when Bitcoin's going through these bear markets. Now, the reason why it's so hard is because after the June low, you guys probably remember me talking about this, um you know, leading into the summer, is that you'll likely form a low in the summer, in June or July, that then acts as the low for a while. And then after the low forms, volatility compresses.

Right? Volatility compresses after the summer low, as you can see in the last several market cycles. And on our website, you we actually have a volatility chart, right? So, if you look at volatility for Bitcoin, um over the last, say, 60 days, it's relatively low right now. Like it's really low, and usually when it starts to get low like this, volatility will then often pick back up, whether it's to the upside or the downside.

Okay? So, I can't promise you that the next move is to the downside, but I do think that there is a I do think there's a likelihood that that is the way it breaks, and then it scares a lot of people, it ushers in the market cycle bottom. And then from there, ideally, Bitcoin then begins a new bull market. But you'll see that volatility is getting incredibly low. 60-day volatility is at 1.47% and it just kind of hover the line at that level.

We don't tend to go much lower than that. So, volatility is likely about to pick back up a lot. If you look at it on a 30-day time frame, it's at 1.16%, right? Like it's getting pretty low, and there's not that many times in history where the volatility of Bitcoin was getting to be this low. You could also look at it over say 180 days and see that recently volatility has just fallen off a cliff. So, the winds of winter continue to blow.

And it feels cold, even though it's summer, right? But in the cryptoverse, it's winter. Social risk is trending down. Social metrics across the cryptoverse, like views to crypto YouTube channels, in general, again, trending down. But we've seen this before. The last time the social risk was .2 in August of a midterm year was not 2022, it was in fact in 2018. And we're still tracking the 2018 market structure almost perfectly.

As you can see, the low in February, the lower low in the summer, it's it's all the same, the lower high in May. It's very very similar. And so, the winds of winter press on. Bitcoin volatility is is compressing, and as we get out of the summer and go into the fall, volatility is likely going to pick up a lot. A lot. So, do not be lulled into a false sense of complacency here. All right? Because this is how it always feels.

Kind of in back half of the summer of midterm years. And then something happens. Who knows what? Doesn't matter. Something happens. And and the market wakes back up. And people will then blame that event. Right? They'll be like, well, it was because of this. But I don't we don't need a narrative, right? Whether it's yields going up because the Fed refuses to raise rates, whether it's just the stock market getting a correction later this year, whether it's some, you know, some disagreements within Bitcoin itself, which there have been some.

Um or whether it has to do with AI and and some of that the hacks that we've seen in the cryptoverse, vulnerabilities that people didn't fully realize were there. Maybe that continues. I don't know what the narrative is. But you can be rest assured that there will be one. So, Bitcoin again right now trading around 62 to 63,000 dollars. As we've said previously, the 20-week or the bear market resistance band and the 200-week moving average are coming together.

And as they get closer, it's going to force a decision. It's going to force Bitcoin to decide which way it's going to break out. And in order for the on-chain indicators to fully reset a break to the downside would allow that. Right? It would allow it. And you can see that on-chain on-chain risk has been slowly going down. If you get one more draw down, that might be it. Right? I mean, like that would probably reset all the on-chain indicators.

Like if we get one more drop like we did back in in May to June or from, you know, January going into February, or or October going into to December, you get one more of those, you're likely going to see a lot of these on-chain indicators completely reset at that point. And then the justification for lower prices would be a lot more it would be a lot more difficult to justify. And of course, you could try and justify lower prices beyond that point based on the macro or based on the prevailing narratives, but the four-year cycle headwind within just a couple of months or so will likely become a tailwind.

But, we're not quite there yet, right? Like we're in month 10 of likely a 12-month bear market. Now, sometimes the bear market goes on for 13 or 14 months, sometimes they're maybe a little bit less, like 9 months, like 2019. But, that's how this plays out, more than likely. More than likely that's how I think it plays out. And if if those if those narratives don't work, then maybe it's the Fed just finally deciding to raise rates.

And and it spooks people, people blame that for Bitcoin breaking below 60K, but remember in both 2019 and 2018, we were holding 6K for a while. Once we broke it, it immediately led to the market cycle bottom, immediately, within the next few weeks. Market cycle bottom was in. And what's interesting is when you look at the Bitcoin ROI from the bottom, we're now on day, let's actually extend this out. We're now on day 1362.

And the last two only lasted, you know, 60 70 more days 60 to 80 days from now. They didn't last that much longer. So, I know it feels bleak and and it feels like things are crumbling and and if and with the hardware wallet wa- with the hardware wallet uh hacks, it it it feels really bad, right? It it it does. And I'm not going to I mean it it it it's kind of led to an identity problem to some degree. But remember, the hardware wallet hack um is not a Bitcoin failure.

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