美国CPI低于预期，9月加息概率下降，韩股进入技术性牛市
Fed Rate Hike Bets Ease After US CPI | Daybreak Europe 8/13/2026
宏观投资者可关注美国通胀数据对加息预期的影响，以及美债收益率走高对全球资产定价的传导。
LIZZY: KOREA KOSPI INTO BULL MARKET TERRITORY. RESULTS FROM CISCO AND CEREBRAS FAILED TO IMPRESS. TRADERS PAY OR BETS ON A SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE AFTER SOFT U.S. INFLATION BUT BONDS ARE UNDER PRESSURE AS 10 YEAR TREASURY DEBT CELLS AT THE HIGHEST YIELD SINCE THE FINANCIAL CRISIS. EUROPE'S FIFTH HEATWAVE OF THE YEAR PEAKS AS EXTREME WEATHER HITS ENERGY NETWORKS AND HEALTH SYSTEMS. WE DISCUSS THE IMPACT ON GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY.
LIZZY：韩国KOSPI指数进入牛市区域。思科和Cerebras的业绩未能给人留下深刻印象。在美国通胀数据疲软后，交易员押注9月加息，但债券承压，10年期国债收益率创金融危机以来新高。欧洲今年第五次热浪达到顶峰，极端天气冲击能源网络和医疗系统。我们讨论对全球粮食供应的影响。
A VERY GOOD MORNING. WELCOME TO THURSDAY. THIS IS THE PICTURE IN MARKETS THIS MORNING. ASIAN STOCKS ON THE RISE. KOSPI IS CURRENTLY HIGHER. 3.7%. AS I SAY, IT'S DRIVEN TO THE POINT OF BEING IN A TECHNICAL BULL MARKET. DRAMATIC TURNAROUND FROM LAST MONTH. SK HYNIX UP 5.5%. SAMSUNG UP 3.7%. BOTH DRIVING UP THE SOUTH KOREAN BENCHMARK. FUTURES IN EUROPE ARE HIGHER BY FORETELLS OF 1% BUT IT'S A MORE MUTED PICTURE STATESIDE.
早上好。欢迎来到周四。这是今早市场的概况。亚洲股市上涨。KOSPI目前上涨3.7%。如我所说，它已进入技术性牛市。与上月相比出现戏剧性逆转。SK海力士上涨5.5%。三星上涨3.7%。两者共同推高韩国基准指数。欧洲期货上涨约1%，但美国方面表现较为平淡。
PRETTY FLAT FOR S&P FUTURES. S&P CLOSING NUMERAL RECORD HIGH ON THAT CPI PRINT YESTERDAY. HEADLINE AND CORE COMING IN BANG ON EXPECTATIONS. OIL EDGING LOWER TODAY. BRENT DOWN 1/10 OF 1%. SIX DAYS OF GAINS ALREADY BUT NOW TRADERS ARE RAIDING FOR SIGNS OF PROGRESS ON THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ REOPENING. YIELDS ARE LOWER. 10-YEAR DOWN A BASIS POINT AT 4.67%. YESTERDAY'S 10 YEAR TREASURY AUCTION RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST YIELD FOR THE BENCHMARK SECURITY SINCE 2007.
标普期货基本持平。标普昨日因CPI数据收于名义历史高位。总体和核心数据均符合预期。今日油价小幅走低。布伦特原油下跌0.1%。已连续六天上涨，但交易员现在正寻找霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的进展迹象。收益率走低。10年期收益率下降一个基点至4.67%。昨日的10年期国债拍卖导致基准证券收益率创2007年以来新高。
SETTING THE SCENE FOR 30 YEAR SALES DAY, THE HIGHEST FINANCING RATE IN A QUARTER-CENTURY. WE ARE LOOKING AHEAD TO PPI DATER STATESIDE LATER. TAKE A LOOK AT THE YEN. OUR SCOOP THAT JAPAN'S PRIME MINISTER'S GOVERNMENT IS APPEARED -- SUPPORTIVE OF A NEAR-TERM RATE HIKE BY THE BANK OF JAPAN. FIRST, LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE RISK EVENTS ON THE AGENDA FOR TODAY. TOP OF THE HOUR. U.K. GDP FIGURES FOR JULY, COMPLETING THE PICTURE FOR THE SECOND QUARTER.
为30年期国债销售日奠定基础，这是四分之一世纪以来的最高融资利率。我们稍后关注美国PPI数据。看看日元。我们的独家消息称，日本首相的政府似乎支持日本央行近期加息。首先，让我们看看今日日程上的风险事件。整点时刻。英国7月GDP数据，将补全第二季度的全貌。
THE ECONOMY HOLDING UP DESPITE HEADWINDS FROM DOMESTIC POLITICS AND GEOPOLITICS. 9:00, BRINGING UP THE REAR FOR CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS, NORTH BANK KEEPING RATES ON HOLD FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT MEETING. NEW U.S. PPI. KEY INPUT INTO THE FED PREFERRED INFLATION GAUGE PCE. PLENTY AHEAD. LET'S GET STARTED. TECH STOCKS DRIVING GAINS ACROSS ASIA ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING. LET'S GO STRAIGHT TO WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG. WHAT HAS PUT TECH BACK ON THE FRONT FOOT?
尽管面临国内政治和地缘政治的不利因素，经济仍保持韧性。9点，央行决策收官，北方银行连续第二次会议维持利率不变。美国新PPI数据。这是美联储偏爱的通胀指标PCE的关键输入。前方还有很多。让我们开始吧。科技股今早再次推动亚洲股市上涨。我们直接连线香港的Winnie Hsu。是什么让科技股重新占据主导地位？
IT'S A TECHNICAL BULL MARKET IN SOUTH KOREA. WINNIE: STRONG SESSION IN ASIA. A A -- MSCI ASIA OF MORE THAN 1% , HEADED FOR ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FIVE WEEKS. IT'S REALLY COMING FROM THAT CONSTRUCTIVE MACRO BACKDROP WE HAD. U.S. CPI NUMBERS HELPING INVESTORS TO TRIM BETS WHEN IT COMES TO FURTHER RATE HIKES BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE. OVERALL, STRONG EARNINGS FROM TECH AS WELL AS OIL, EASING THOSE GAINS. THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF RISK ASSETS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH KOREA WITH THE KOSPI UP 4%.
这是韩国的一个技术性牛市。温妮：亚洲市场表现强劲。A A——MSCI亚洲指数上涨超过1%，有望创下五周新高。这确实源于我们所处的建设性宏观背景。美国CPI数据帮助投资者减少了对美联储进一步加息的押注。总体而言，科技和石油行业的强劲盈利缓解了这些涨幅。这对风险资产构成支撑，尤其是在韩国，KOSPI指数上涨了4%。
YOU ARE SEEING TECH HEAVY GAUGES IN JAPAN AND TAIWAN ALSO LEADING GAINS. FLIP THE BOARD. I WANT TO TAKE YOU TO A LOOK AT WHAT'S GOING ON WHEN IT COMES TO KOREA AND HONG KONG MARKETS. WE ARE SEEING A CORRELATION BETWEEN THE TWO MARKETS. AFTER THAT VERY SHARP CORRECTION IN KOREA, IT'S REBOUNDING. UP 23% FROM ITS JULY LOW. ON THE FLIPSIDE, AFTER THAT BIG RALLY IN HONG KONG SHARES, IT IS LOSING MOMENTUM ESPECIALLY AS INVESTORS CONTINUE TO WEIGH THE EARNINGS FROM TENCENT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH EARNINGS POINTING TO HOW THE COMPANY IS NOW DOUBLING ITS AI SPENDING WHILE THE FREE CASH FLOW ALSO TURNING NEGATIVE.
您会看到日本和台湾以科技股为主的指数也领涨。翻盘。我想带您看看韩国和香港市场的情况。我们看到这两个市场之间存在相关性。在韩国经历那次急剧回调后，现在正在反弹。自7月低点上涨了23%。另一方面，在香港股市大涨之后，势头正在减弱，尤其是投资者继续权衡昨晚腾讯的财报，财报显示该公司正在将AI支出翻倍，而自由现金流也转为负值。
SHOWING CONCERNS WHEN IT COMES TO HOW THIS BIG SPENDING AND AI CAN REALLY TRANSLATE INTO THE AI MONETIZATION PATH FORWARD. FLIP THE BOARD. THE JAPANESE YEN. YOU JUST POINTED OUT WITHIN THE PAST 30 MINUTES OR SO, WE LEARNED THAT THE PRIME MINISTERS GOVERNMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A NEAR-TERM RATE HIKE BY THE BANK OF JAPAN AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER. THE YEN STRENGTHENING ABOUT 0.1%. INVESTORS ARE REALLY BETTING THAT THE BANK OF JAPAN WILL HAVE TO MOVE EARLIER THAN LATER.
这引发了人们对这种巨额支出和AI能否真正转化为未来AI变现路径的担忧。翻盘。日元。您刚才在30分钟内指出，我们得知首相政府支持日本央行在9月或10月尽早加息。日元升值约0.1%。投资者确实押注日本央行将不得不更早而非更晚采取行动。
NOW MARKETS PRICING IN 75% OF TREND FOR SEPTEMBER HIKE, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU -- AGAIN WEAKNESS IS REALLY SHOWING AFTER THE JOINT INTERVENTION, WITH THE YEN NOW RIGHT BELOW THE 160 LEVEL AGAINST THE DOLLAR. THE THING IS, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE YEN TODAY REALLY IS NOT A STRONG. THE MUTED REACTION ALSO SHOWS YOU THAT INVESTORS RIGHT NOW WANT TO SEE MORE THAN JUST WORDS BUT ACTIONS. BACK TO YOU. LIZZY: REALLY INTERESTING STUFF.
现在市场定价9月加息的可能性为75%，尤其是当您——在联合干预后，日元兑美元汇率现在正好低于160水平，疲软态势再次显现。问题是，今天日元的走强实际上并不强劲。反应平淡也表明，投资者现在希望看到的不仅仅是言辞，而是行动。交回给您。莉兹：真是有趣的事情。
WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG. U.S. NOW. 40 BILLION-DOLLAR NOCTURNE -- AUCTION HAD THE HIGHEST YIELD FOR THE BONDS SINCE 2007 YESTERDAY, SETTING THE SCENE FOR 30 YEAR SALE TODAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT THE HIGHEST FINANCING RATE IN A QUARTER-CENTURY. IT COMES DESPITE JULY'S PRINT SHOWING INFLATION SOFTENING WITH INVESTORS PARING BETS ON A SEPTEMBER FED HIKE. LET'S GO TO SAM BUMSTEAD FOR MORE. THE PRESSURE IS OFF THE FED OFFICIALS WHO WANTED TO WAIT FOR MORE SIGNS OF PROGRESS ON DISINFLATION YOU MIGHT SAY.
许温妮在香港报道。美国现在。400亿美元的夜间拍卖——昨日债券收益率创2007年以来最高，为今日30年期国债销售奠定基础，预计将以四分之一世纪以来的最高融资利率进行。尽管7月数据显示通胀有所缓和，投资者减少了对美联储9月加息的押注。让我们连线山姆·巴姆斯特德了解更多。那些希望等待更多通胀回落进展迹象的美联储官员压力减轻了，你可以这么说。
HOW COULD TODAY'S PPI PRINT CHANGE THE NARRATIVE? GOOD MORNING. SAM: YEAH. WE SHALL SEE WITH THE PPI PRINT. THE CPI PRINT YESTERDAY, RELATIVELY BENIGN. DIDN'T PROVIDE ANY UPSIDE SURPRISE IN A WAY THAT WOULD DAMAGE THE PATH OR MAKE IT MORE HAWKISH FOR THE FED. ALMOST EVERYTHING ABOUT IT WAS IN LINE. IT TAKES PRESSURE OFF BUT ONLY A LITTLE BIT. YOU MENTIONED THERE WITH YIELDS ON THE BOND SALE YESTERDAY, GETTING TO MULTI-YEAR HIGHS.
今日的PPI数据会如何改变这一局面？早上好。山姆：是的，我们拭目以待PPI数据。昨天的CPI数据相对温和，没有出现可能损害美联储路径或使其更鹰派的意外上行。几乎所有数据都符合预期。这减轻了压力，但只是略微减轻。你提到昨天的债券拍卖收益率达到多年高点。
IT'S A GLOBAL EVENT THAT THIS HAPPEN FOR BOND YIELDS EVERYWHERE. WHAT'S BEEN INTERESTING AT THE LONGHAND, YIELDS GOING UP AT THE LONGHAND. CORRELATING CLOSELY WITH ALLELE PRICES. THERE'S AN INCREASING CONCERN THAT OIL PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INFLATIONARY RISK AND INFLATIONARY PRESSURE FURTHER OUT THAN MAY HAVE BEEN INITIALLY THE CASE. LIZZY: HOW MUCH IS THAT TO DO WITH THE AI INVESTMENT STORY? AS YOU SAY, IT'S NOT UNIQUE TO TREASURY AUCTIONS THAT YOU ARE SEEING HIGHER YIELDS.
这是一个全球性事件，各地债券收益率都如此。有趣的是，在长期端，收益率上升，与等位基因价格密切相关。人们越来越担心油价将继续构成通胀风险和通胀压力，且持续时间可能比最初预期的更长。丽兹：这与AI投资故事有多大关系？如你所说，你看到的更高收益率并非美国国债拍卖独有。
WHAT ARE THE BIGGEST DRIVERS RIGHT NOW OF HIGHER YIELDS? SAM: YEAH. I'M IN HONG KONG AT THE MORMON. NORMALLY IN THE YOU KIND -- U.K.. WE HAVE SEEN YIELDS IN BONDS GET MULTIYEAR HIGHS. SOMETHING WE ARE USED TO SEEING. IT HAS HAPPENED ACROSS THE BOARD. A LOT OF THAT IS TO DO WITH SOME OF AI HYPERSCALER SPENDING. THERE'S JUST AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF MONEY BEING POURED IN. THAT FEEDS INTO CREDIT MARKETS AND SO THAT'S HAVING AN EFFECT CERTAINLY.
目前推动收益率上升的最大因素是什么？山姆：是的。我在香港的莫尔蒙。通常在英国——嗯，我们已看到债券收益率达到多年高点。这是我们习惯看到的。这种情况普遍发生。其中很大一部分与AI超大规模企业的支出有关。大量资金涌入，这传导至信贷市场，当然会产生影响。
OIL PRICES REMAIN A KEY DRIVER. THERE'S CONTINUED QUESTIONS OF HOW LONG THEY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR, HOW MUCH THAT WILL CHANGE THE PICTURE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR AS TO WHAT CENTRAL BANKS HAVE TO DO. INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED. AS IS THE CASE WITH MOST MARKETS THESE DAYS, IT'S A QUESTION OF OIL AND AI. THOSE THINGS REMAIN THE MAIN DRIVERS. LIZZY: OK. THANK YOU VERY MUCH SAM. WE WILL BE TALKING TECH LATER ON IN THE PROGRAM.
油价仍是关键驱动因素。人们持续质疑油价会保持高位多久，以及这将在下半年如何改变央行必须采取行动的局面。情况日益复杂。与当今大多数市场一样，问题在于石油和AI。这些仍是主要驱动因素。丽兹：好的，非常感谢你，山姆。我们稍后将在节目中讨论科技话题。
STILL AHEAD, A HEAT WAVE BAKING EUROPE THIS WEEK. THE CHIEF ECONOMIST AT THE FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS WILL BE JOINING US TO DISCUSS THE IMPACT OF EXTREME HEAT ON FOOD PRICES. FIRST, U.S. BETS ON ECONOMIC PRESSURE AS IT LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN ITS HAND IN THE CONFLICT WITH IRAN. THAT'S NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ LIZZY: WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE. IRAN HAS REORGANIZED ITS MILITARY IN A BID TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE ABROAD, TELLING STATE TV IT IS SHIFTING TO AN OFFENSIVE DOCTRINE.
前方，本周欧洲遭遇热浪烘烤。联合国粮食及农业组织首席经济学家将加入我们，讨论极端高温对食品价格的影响。首先，美国在寻求加强对伊朗冲突中的筹码时，押注经济压力。接下来。这里是彭博社。♪ 莉兹：欢迎回到彭博社《欧洲黎明》。伊朗已重组其军队，试图在海外更具侵略性，并告诉国家电视台其正转向进攻性学说。
IT COMES AS TALKS WITH THE U.S. GENERATE LITTLE SIGN OF PROGRESS WITH BOTH SIDES CLAIMING CONTROL OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. LET'S GET THE LATEST NOW FROM OUR BLOOMBERG HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA ANCHOR. GOOD MORNING. WHAT DOES IRAN'S SHIFT MEAN FOR THE CONFLICT AND POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS AS WELL?
与此同时，与美国的谈判几乎没有进展迹象，双方都声称控制霍尔木兹海峡。现在让我们连线彭博社视野中东与非洲主播。早上好。伊朗的转变对冲突和潜在谈判意味着什么？
GOOD MORNING. IT'S NOT JUST IRAN'S SHIFT. THE UNITED STATES SHIFTING ITS STANCE. PRESIDENT TRUMP SINGING HE'S RESORTING TO HAVING ECONOMIC PRESSURE HAVE ITS WAY AND LET IRAN SUCCUMB TO THE ECONOMIC PRESSURE THAT IT HAS BEEN EXPOSED TO OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS. WHEN IT COMES TO THE IRANI INSIDE, WE'VE REPORTED ON YOUR SHOW AND OTHERS THAT IRAN HAS PROMOTED OR THE GOVERNMENT, THE NEW SUPREME LEADER HAS PROMOTED THOSE HARDLINERS INTO THE ECHELONS OF POWER OVER THE WEEKEND.
早上好。不仅仅是伊朗的转变。美国也在转变立场。特朗普总统宣称他将诉诸经济压力，让伊朗屈服于过去六个月所承受的经济压力。就伊朗内部而言，我们在你的节目和其他节目中报道过，伊朗政府，即新任最高领袖，在周末将那些强硬派提拔到了权力阶层。
NOW WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR THE WIDER NEGOTIATIONS, STILL A LOT OF UN-CLARITY ABOUT WHAT THEY WOULD WANT. BUT ONE STARTS TO THINK THAT IRAN IS PROBABLY PREPARING
现在这对更广泛的谈判可能意味着什么，关于他们想要什么仍有很多不确定性。但人们开始认为伊朗可能正在准备
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力