美国7月非农意外下降，降息预期升温

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Eastern. Here's just kind of some of the details. US employers unexpectedly cut jobs in the month of July and hiring the prior two months was uh revised lower, suggesting that the labor market here in the US is weaker than previously thought after surprising strength Tim earlier this year. The decline in jobs driven by cuts in government, leisure, and hospitality, also retail. Private sector payrolls rose by $30,000 for a second month that was led by healthcare and social assistance.

Manufacturing and construction payrolls, those continue to climb.

And then there was the participation rate. The share of the population working or looking for work fell to 61.4% which excluding the pandemic was the lowest since the 1970s. Among those between the ages of 25 and 54, known as prime age workers, participation edged higher but remained near the lowest levels of the fast of the last few years. White House director of the National Economic Council. We're talking about Kevin Hassenet.

He spoke earlier on Bloomberg TV and radio on open interest with Danny Burgerer and Michael McKe. and labor force participation is kind of on a downward trajectory which means that the break even jobs number that is that the jobs number you need so that unemployment rate doesn't uh go up is has gone from maybe 120 130,000 a few years ago to maybe about 40,000 now and so what it means is that what the market is used to looking at oh it's it's like a normal tread the water cut a jobs number if it's around 100 is no longer true

all right that of course is white house director of the national economic council Kevin Hasset earlier on Bloomberg. Joining us with more is our own Michael McKe who was talking to Mr. Hasset earlier on Bloomberg. He is of course Bloomberg TV and radio international economics and policy correspondent joining us here in studio along with and back with us Matt Lzetti. He's chief economist at Deutsche Bank. Um guys, thank you so much.

I do want to kick it off with you though, Mike. We've had a few hours for the dust to settle. Uh is this a report that was weaker? Like what's the assessment here? I think the bottom line to just skip to the end of the book is that the labor market is weaker than it had appeared, but it's not weak. It's not a problem uh for the Fed to have to deal with. And there were, as you mentioned, some quirks in the data this time.

And everything Kevin said was true about the with the labor force declining. Uh you need fewer jobs to employ people so the unemployment rate can go down. And that is something that the Fed's going to have to think about in terms of what is the level of interest rates that keeps the unemployment rate steady.

We'll dig into all of this in and more in just a minute. First, I want to bring in Matt Lazetti over uh chief economist over at Deutsche Bank. Do you agree with with Mike's assessment here that yeah, on the surface it it looks weaker, but it's not as bad as as sort of the headline number.

Yeah, I think absolutely. You got a downside surprise on payrolls. You had the 100,000 of downward revisions to prior months. Um, but I think what it does is it confirms that that break even number is just lower. So there's various Fed estimates out there suggesting that the break even number could be as low as zero per month.

Over the past 3 or 6 months, we're running at 20 to 45,000 on on headline payroll numbers. With that backdrop, we've seen the unemployment rate decline to the lowest level in 18 months. We've seen other measures of labor market slack actually tighten on the margins as well. And so I think it actually fits more with a story where the break even numbers quite low. we see payroll gains uh trending kind of around those levels, maybe a little bit above labor market slack tightening at the margins, but it takes away some of the upside risk to the labor market that the Fed might have been contemplating.

All right, so when it comes to we've got actually a question I want to bring in from a viewer and listener. It's Mark in Toronto and he says, "What impact do boomers retiring have on the labor participation rate and unemployment make and and if we could address that?" I have to say I have some boomers in my family who've retired recently and or in the last few years and they have at least three or four of them that have left the labor market.

Matt, is that something that is certainly at play here?

Absolutely. So, if you look at the labor force participation over recent months in June, there was a big decline in prime age which which I think you alluded to and specifically the 25 to 34 age group that partially reversed. I think the bigger structural trend is labor force participation for 55 plus continues to collapse. There's a question about whether or not that's uh worrying or not. I would actually argue that it's really in line with what you would expect from demographics.

So if you look at different age groups with 55 plus, their participation rates are actually not moving around all that much. So what's happening is people are just aging into buckets where they work a lot less, where their participation rates are much lower, and we're in fact much closer to what I would expect from a demographics uh implied trend from from the labor market.

Well, Mike, what about the other end of of the demographic spectrum? And that would traditionally be new, you know, new entrance to this country entering the labor force and and and younger immigrants. We've seen that dry up significantly over the past few months and and and it's certainly by design with this administration. You addressed that with Kevin Hassid a little bit in one of the questions that that he answered.

Does that work in in our economy when we're not having enough kids?

Uh it isn't good news for the overall economy. As we were talking about with Kevin Hassid, the size of the labor force is one input into what potential growth is. And if the labor force isn't growing, you've got to get more out of productivity. Kevin and Walsh thinks you will eventually, not yet. Uh so it is it is a problem for the economy overall. And you can see that in the overall participation numbers as well, although prime age has ticked up a little bit.

Things have loosened up a little bit compared to where they were. But the demographics at the other end, uh, as Matt was saying, that's been going on for quite a while as baby boomers from 1946, uh, started retiring, and now we're past the peak of baby boomers, uh, being 65. So, that'll be less and less of an issue going forward, but it still takes a lot of people out of the labor force.

Is it too soon? Well, I feel like there's a million things I want to talk about because demographics is things I know we've talked with you about it, but I do think about longer term if we don't allow immigration into the country and we have an older workforce, you know, how much the economy here in the US is at risk in terms of growth. Matt, is that something you guys are thinking about a lot or studying?

Sure. I mean I think if you look at projections for population growth and the size of the US population as you look out 5 or 10 years uh without positive net immigration flows you have a declining uh labor force you have a declining population uh the US is not the only economy global economy that is dealing with these

we've seen this movie right we see these issues uh various parts of Asia uh

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