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THE COUNTDOWN IS ON. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO GET THE EDGE AT THE END OF THE MARKET DAY. THIS IS "THE CLOSE." ROMAINE: FOR EQUITY BULLS, IS THE BAD LABOR MARKET A BLESSING IN DISGUISE? I ROMAINE BOSTICK KICKING YOU OFF TO THE CLOSE ON THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. S&P 500 LOG TO RECORD HIGH ON TUESDAY BUT PULLED BACK A LITTLE BIT IN THE DAYS SINCE, NOW HEADED FOR YET ANOTHER RECORD HIGH. IT STARTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK BECAUSE OF OPTIMISM OVER A DEAL SURROUNDING THE TRADE OF HORMUZ.

CONTRIBUTING TO IT, OPTIMISM THAT RATE CUTS BY THE FED MAY BE BACK ON THE TABLE. YOU SEE THAT REFLECTED IN THE TWO-YEAR YIELD WHICH AT ONE POINT HAD DROPPED ABOUT NINE BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY, THE PAIRING THAT BACK A LITTLE BIT, ADDING A LITTLE FUEL TO THE GOLD RALLY, WHICH IS BACK AT ITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE THE START OF JUNE, BUT THAT BACKUP IN YIELDS ALSO PUTTING DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON THE DOLLAR. THE BLOOMBERG DOLLAR SPOT INDEX HEADED BACK TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE LATE MAY.

WE HAVE BEEN TALKING A LOT ABOUT THE MACRO. I TOLD YOU AT THE START OF THE WEEK MACRO FORCES WOULD LIKELY BUBBLE BACK UP TO BE A BIGGER DRIVER OF THE BROADER MARKET AS EARNINGS WEEK STARTS TO SUBSIDE. TODAY A TESTAMENT TO THAT. THAT SHARPLY DECLINING U.S. PAYROLLS LAST MONTH AND THE GOVERNMENT REVISING DOWNWARD MAY AND JUNE FIGURES BY 103,000 JOBS. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FELL AS LABOR PARTICIPATION FELL AS WELL AND WAGE GROWTH WAS DOWN, TOO.

ALL BAD NEWS FOR THE ECONOMY, BUT IN THIS TOPSY-TURVY WORLD, THAT MIGHT BE GOOD FOR EQUITY MARKETS THAT HAD BEEN WORRIED THE FED MIGHT BE RUSHING TO RAISE RATES, BUT IF THE FED IS ON THE BACK FOOT, MAYBE THAT TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY.

I THINK IT TELLS YOU THAT IF DATA LOOKS SOMEWHAT SOFTER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE INFLATION SIDE, THEY ARE PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HIKE IN SEPTEMBER. THEY WILL SEE HOW THE DATA PROGRESSES. THAT WILL HAVE TO MEET CORE PCE TRACKING OVER THE NEXT TWO PRINTS. ROMAINE: SO, OFF WE GO COME UP WITH THE QUESTION IS -- SHOULD WE BE GOING HIGHER? STRATEGIST AT BANK OF AMERICA WERE OUT WITH THEIR WEEKLY NOTE SHOWING THAT THEIR GAUGE OF INVESTOR BULLISHNESS CLIMBED TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2021, AND LIKE BAD ECONOMIC NEWS IS SOMETIMES GOOD MARKET NEWS, OVERLY BEARISH MARKET SENTIMENT IS SOMETIMES A SIGNAL TO REDUCE EXPOSURE.

THIS WEEK, GROWTH WAS THE BEST PERFORMING FACTOR ON A LONG SHORT BASIS WHILE VALUE WAS THE BIGGEST LAGGARD. THAT WAS A FLIP FROM WHAT WE SAW IN JULY WHERE EVERYONE SEEMED TO BE SCREAMING QUALITY, QUALITY, QUALITY. WE TALK ABOUT THE IDEA OF HOW THESE THINGS WILL SHAPE OUT THE REST OF THE MONTH. IT IS AUGUST, AFTER ALL. A BUSY AUGUST, BUT THINGS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN OR ALSO LIKELY TO PICK BACK UP SHOULD THINGS SLOW DOWN PEER THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF SOLUTIONS AT MEMBER -- MAN BERG JOINS US NOW.

LET'S TALK ABOUT THE JOBS. THE MARKET WAS POSITION FOR SOMETHING ELSE. I DON'T THINK THE MARKET EXPECTED THAT AMOUNT OF WEAKNESS, BUT IMMEDIATELY EVERYBODY STARTED LOOKING AT THE FED, SAYING, NOW WHAT?

IF WE ARE BACK TO THE BAD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE EQUITY MARKET, AND IT IS A PERVERSE INCENTIVE, BUT THE BAD MACRO ECONOMIC DATA WHEN THINKING ABOUT THE FED'S DUAL MANDATE, IF THE EMPLOYMENT WORLD IS LOOKING SOFTER, THAN THE PROBABILITY OF INTEREST RATE HIKES IS LOWER AND THAT IN TURN IS GOOD FOR GROWTH EQUITIES, SO WE SEE THIS CYCLE CONTINUING. IT'S A BIG PART OF THE REASON WHY THE 60/40 PORTFOLIO THESE DAYS IS STRUGGLING.

TODAY, STOCKS ARE UP AND BONDS ARE UP. THERE'S NOT A DIVERSIFYING CHARACTERISTIC BETWEEN THE TWO. ROMAINE: ARE YOU SURPRISED AT HOW MORE CORRELATED THE MARKET HAS BECOME GIVEN WHAT WE SAW AT THE START OF THE YEAR?

THE RALLY IS DRIVEN BY A NARROW BREADTH OF THE MARKET. THE LARGE CAP TECH CATEGORIES DRIVING EVERYTHING HIGHER. ROMAINE: I WAS SURPRISED BY THAT. WE HAD THAT RECORD HIGH TUESDAY. 65%, 60%-PLUS OF THOSE GAMES CAME FROM AMAZON AND I FORGOT WHAT ELSE, ALPHABET. MATT: IF YOU ARE DIVERSIFIED OWNING AND INDEX PRODUCT, YOU ARE STILL EXPOSED. WE GOT THAT CLEARING PRINT, IF YOU WILL, FROM THE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS LIQUIDITY EVENT WHERE CITADEL BOUGHT A BASKET OF THESE GROWTH NAMES IN THE MARKET TOOK THAT AS A SIGNAL OF MAYBE THIS IS A CLEARING BOTTOM AND WE CAN MOVE FORWARD FROM HERE, BUT I THINK TODAY IS ABOUT LOWER PROBABILITY OF INTEREST RATE HIKES FOR NOW.

ROMAINE: WITH REGARDS TO SITUATIONAL AWARENESS, IT DID RATTLE SOME FOLKS BECAUSE IT SPOKE TO THE IDEA OF HOW ON THE PRECIPICE WE ARE, NOT NECESSARILY THE IDEA THAT THINGS WILL COME DOWN CRASHING, BUT THAT MAY BE PEOPLE NEED TO START RETHINKING THEIR POSITIONS. WE GOT EARNINGS OUT OF SOME OF THESE BIG TECH NAMES THIS WEEK AND LAST WEEK, HYPERSCALERS AND CHIPMAKERS, MIGHT WE SEE FURTHER AND MORE MEANINGFUL GAINS OUT OF THOSE STOCKS?

MATT: IT IS STILL MEASURED BY CAPEX. PEOPLE KNOW THERE'S A CIRCULAR REFERENCE OF WHAT IS GOING ON, AND BORROWING MONEY, PUTTING IT INTO CAPEX AND CARRY ON, AND I CANNOT HELP BUT DRAW COMPARISONS TO THE TELECOM/FIBER BUILD OUT OF THE LATE 1990'S, EARLY 2000'S. I'M OLD ENOUGH TO REMEMBER WHEN THAT WAS GOING ON IN SAN FRANCISCO. I THINK THE CYCLE GOES SOMETHING LIKE BUILD EXCESS CAPACITY THROUGH SUBSTANTIAL INVESTMENT, WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE NOW.

NOBODY KNOWS WHEN THAT PEAKS AND PEOPLE ARE STILL WILLING TO CHASE. THERE'S A FEAR FROM INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS BROADLY, NOT OF THE DOWNSIDE BUT OF BEING UNDER EXPOSED TO THE CATEGORY RIGHT NOW. BECAUSE THAT IS THE HERD MENTALITY. YOU WILL SEE LESS PEOPLE WORRIED ABOUT CAREER RISK OR RELATIONSHIPS WITH INVESTORS IF THEY UNDERPERFORM IN A SELLOFF. THE BIGGEST WORRY IS NOT BEING EXPOSED ENOUGH TO THIS CATEGORY. ROMAINE: IS THERE POTENTIAL FOR THAT TO CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM?

SOME OF THESE PEOPLE MIGHT BE WORRIED ABOUT THEIR JOBS. IF THEY DID THEIR JOBS OVER THE LAST SIX TO 12 MONTHS, THEY MIGHT BE SITTING ON SOME PRETTY HEALTHY GAINS. I WONDER PEOPLE MIGHT START TO PULL BACK NOT BECAUSE THEY THINK A CRASH IS COMING, BUT BECAUSE YOU MIGHT AS WELL LOCK IT IN. MATT: I THINK THAT IS WHAT LEADS TO THE SEASONALITY EFFECT AND WHY POST-LABOR DAY TENDS TO BE MORE VOLATILE. IF YOU LOOK AT THE SEASONALITY OF THE VIX, IT IS NOT JUST A SAYING THAT THERE IS A LOW -- A LULL IN THE SUMMER.

THERE TENDS TO BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY. I THINK YOU WILL SEE MORE OF THAT RISK MANAGEMENT IN Q3. YOU LOOK AT THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY, THE PROBABILITY OF INTEREST RATE HIKES DID NOT GET TAKEN OFF THE TABLE COMPLETELY. IT JUST GOT REDUCED SLIGHTLY. I THINK THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THIS STRUGGLE WITH MARKET OF READING WARSH. PEOPLE DO NOT KNOW WHAT INFORMATION HE WILL GIVE ON WHAT FREQUENCY, HOW HE WILL MEASURE THINGS.

I THINK WE ARE IN FOR A VOLATILE Q3 AND Q4 OF THIS YEAR. ROMAINE: WHAT ABOUT THE AI BUILD OUT? THAT HAS BEEN A STEALTH DRIVER OF THIS ECONOMY AND OF INFLATION. IF YOU START TO SEE HICCUPS THEY ARE, DOES THAT BECOME AN ECONOMIC STORY? MATT WILL AN ABSOLUTELY. THE HARDEST THING FOR ME AND FOR THE MARKET GENERALLY TO QUANTIFY IS -- HOW BIG IS THIS ISSUE? HOW BIG IT IS A POSITIVE IMPACT, AND HOW BIG IS THE RISK TO THE BROADER MARKET?

YOU CONTEXTUALIZE IT TO, AS I REFERRED TO EARLIER, THE TELECOM/FIBER BUILD OUT AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS DRIVEN BY HOUSING, THE AI/CAPEX BOOM IS TWICE WHAT FIBER AND TELECOM WAS AND ABOUT HALF WHAT THE HOUSING EXPANSION WAS IN DOLLAR NOTIONAL TERMS, BUT THE SPEED OF ITS IMPACT ON GDP HAS DOUBLED BOTH BY A LONGSHOT. BY THAT IS ALL RELEVANT IS THAT AS FAST AS IT CAN BE CONTRIBUTING POSITIVELY TO ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TO GDP, IF WE SEE THINGS GO IN REVERSE OR A SLOWDOWN IN CAPEX AND START SEEING WINNERS AND LOSERS AND SOME FAILURES IN CONSOLIDATION, IT COULD QUICKLY DRAG US IN THE WRONG DIRECTION.

I THINK PEOPLE ARE ON PINS AND NEEDLES. I JOKINGLY REFERRED TO PEOPLE BEING MORE WORRIED ABOUT THE GOLDEN SWAN THAN THEY ARE THE BLACK SWAN. AS FAST AS IT HAS ARRIVED AND CONTRIBUTED, IF IT WERE TO HIT A BUMP IN THE ROAD, IT COULD MOVE THINGS IN A NEGATIVE DIRECTION FAST. ROMAINE: THANKS. IT HAS BEEN A GOOD WEEK FOR STOCKS AND ALSO

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