美光财报膨胀AI泡沫，MLIV分析3分钟

What do you make of micron. Obviously incredible earnings. And as Anthony just outlined there the margins that are very impressive. I think this kind of uh you know uh reaffirms the story that the the AI CapEx bubble is still got plenty more to inflate. Uh, and, you know, the recent uh, volatility we've seen is just that it's we're in this kind of volatile of tile end phase of the bubble inflation. And again, that volatile end phase can last for for many months. Uh, again, the benchmark that we looked at for prior bubbles is normally about six months. And I'm kind of seeing the start of that happening in May. So maybe we kind of go through towards the end of the year, uh, on the AI CapEx bubble. Now, that's all just kind of a rough guidance framework. I think we continue to watch, uh, those earnings, uh, future earnings for kind of when we've got a sign that the CapEx bubble is going to burst. But until then, as Anthony just outlined, you know, that their their their names in Asia and micron also in the US that are making real hard money here, like hand over fist. Month. If some of that is some of the investment flows that we're seeing going into some of those, those chipmakers coming from Bitcoin and gold and silver, all that much more at dollar story because gold and silver are getting whacked again today. Bitcoin's at around 61,000. Uh, I think it is more a dollar story. I think that's a dollar and real yield story. So with the collapse in oil prices, we're seeing, uh, a rapid kind of decline in an inflation expectations, inflation swaps, which means we're not seeing the same kind of the decline in yields is a bit smaller. And therefore we're seeing real yields, uh, stay very elevated compared to the last year or so. Uh, and that combined with the strong dollar is weighing on precious metals and on crypto stocks. I do think it's true that before when we got dips in those kind of assets, retail got excited to buy into those dips. But they're just ignoring them. They're not the fun casino to play anymore. It is I mean stocks um which is perceived to be you know really high volatility with a positive skew. And so yes there's no attention to by the dip in those. But I don't think it's about money directly coming out of them to go into high inflation data later today. How would that change the market narrative. Uh, I don't think that's probably, you know, going to be, uh, a big issue. I think this is one that we're kind of expected. I think what's more is kind of the warsh signaling that we get over the next couple of months knowing that he doesn't want to provide too much signaling. But people are going to I've got used to the last kind of 15 years of fed guidance and of over interpreting everything muttered by fed officials. And I think that's quite a weird setup, but we're going to have warsh trying not to guide the market. Um, but he will be kind of all his words be passed. And I say that in reference to the fact of central next week. And I think that's more relevant than the backward looking data on inflation, given that the inflation dynamic is changing very rapidly with the way that oil prices are coming down very quickly. Um, so we're seeing a real kind of change in scenario the mirror assessing even only a month ago.