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黄仁勋被董事会罢免,CFO暂代CEO并面临出口管制审查

Dan Ives & Gene Munster Talk Nvidia, Jensen Huang | Bloomberg Talks

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英伟达最高管理层突发变动且伴随地缘合规风险,直接影响AI算力供应链预期与估值逻辑,建议密切关注后续继任者人选及监管调查结果。

[music] Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.

[音乐] 彭博音频工作室,播客,广播,新闻。

Wall Street, AI investors, and Nvidia itself find themselves this morning in a position few might have thought possible just a few short days ago, thinking about the direction of the AI industry without Jensen Wong at the helm of Nvidia, the company he founded more than three decades ago. The AI chip giant's now leaning on its chief financial officer Carolyn Crest to lead the company for now after Wong's ouster by its board following reports of multiple extrammarital affairs including with a woman who may be a Chinese spy.

华尔街、AI投资者以及英伟达自身今晨发现自己处于一种在短短几天前几乎无人认为可能的境地:在没有黄仁勋执掌他三十多年前创立的公司时,思考AI行业的发展方向。这位AI芯片巨头目前正依靠其首席财务官卡罗琳·克雷斯特(Carolyn Crest)暂时领导公司,此前董事会因报道其涉及多起婚外情(包括可能与一名中国间谍的恋情)而将其罢免。

Gregory Allen with Decision Tree Research says Nvidia is now in a very tough place.

Decision Tree Research的格雷戈里·艾伦(Gregory Allen)表示,英伟达目前处境非常艰难。

Jensen has previously described Nvidia, the company, as the F1 car built around him as the driver. Everyone else in that company is a specialized component, an engine, a wheel, an axle, a turbocharger. There is no one else who is set up to be a leader. That's Decision Tree Research CEO Gregory Allen. Joining us for more analysis this morning after Hong's departure are two of some of the biggest names when it comes to the tech space on Wall Street.

黄仁勋此前曾将英伟达这家公司描述为围绕他这位车手打造的F1赛车。公司里的其他人都是专用部件——引擎、车轮、车轴、涡轮增压器。没有其他人具备成为领导者的条件。这是Decision Tree Research首席执行官格雷戈里·艾伦的观点。今晨黄仁勋离职后,我们邀请两位华尔街科技领域最具影响力的人物之一加入我们的分析节目。

Dan Ies with us this morning in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Dan is the founder and managing partner at Yorkville Lives and Gene Munster is with us as well, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Research. It's great to have both of you with us this morning on Daybreak and to think about Nvidia as this sort of F1 supercar. Uh gets to your note, Gene, uh out this morning after that the the challenge for Nvidia, the central challenge is to maintain urgency.

丹·艾斯(Dan Ives)今晨做客彭博Interactive Brokers演播室。丹是Yorkville Lives的创始人兼管理合伙人,Deepwater Asset Research的管理合伙人吉恩·芒斯特(Gene Munster)也与我们同在。今晨在《Daybreak》节目中同时拥有你们二位,并让我们以这种F1超级跑车来审视英伟达,真是再好不过。吉恩,你今晨发布了一篇笔记,指出英伟达面临的核心挑战是保持紧迫感。

How difficult is it going to be for Nvidia to uh stay in the lead to keep the AI race going without Jensen Wong in the cockpit? Good morning.

在没有黄仁勋驾驶舱的情况下,英伟达要继续保持领先、推动AI竞赛继续下去会多么困难?早上好。

Good morning. Uh well, I'll start with I'm a shareholder of Nvidia, so I think that the near-term I would describe that as the next couple years are going to be in a great place. Uh the to answer your question about how difficult is it long term, it's extremely difficult. And to put it into perspective, if you look at the playbook for companies that have been generational tech companies that have had these spectacular outcomes, and that's if you're investing today, what you're looking for, one of the the the key common characteristics is that it's founder-ledd, number one, and number two, those founders tend to have a wartime or really intense sense of urgency.

早上好。嗯,我先从我是英伟达股东这一点说起,我认为短期内——也就是未来几年——情况会非常好。至于回答你关于长期有多困难的问题,那极其困难。为了让你有个概念,如果你查看那些具有代际意义的科技公司取得辉煌成果的案例 playbook,你会发现,如果你今天进行投资,你所寻找的关键共同特征之一是:由创始人领导,第一;第二,这些创始人往往具有战时或极度强烈的紧迫感。

And I mean we can go through everything from jobs to Zuckerberg uh to cart from Palunteer, Elon and then of course Jensen. And so there I can't think of a a great example of a company that has had these exponential returns once the founder has left. I do want to mention though that urgency is not binary. It's a there's a scale on it and so it will not have I mean I think it's by def it's definitionally impossible for Nvidia to have founder urgency because the founder is no longer there but that doesn't mean that they cannot have urgency and I would kind of pull it all together is that if you think about the job of the board right now it's to do I think their number one goal should be to try to find someone who has that sense of urgency because I think that ultimately is going to what's going to keep them competitive in years three through And

我的意思是,我们可以从乔布斯、扎克伯格,再到帕兰提尔(Palunteer)的埃隆,当然还有黄仁勋,逐一进行探讨。因此,我想不出一个在创始人离开后仍能实现指数级回报的优秀公司案例。不过,我想强调的是,紧迫感并非二元对立的,它是一个有量级的概念。因此,我认为从定义上讲,英伟达不可能再拥有创始人的紧迫感,因为创始人已不在其位,但这并不意味着他们无法拥有紧迫感。总而言之,我认为董事会目前的首要任务应该是寻找一位具备这种紧迫感的人,因为我认为这最终将是他们在未来三到五年内保持竞争力的关键。

Dan Ives, let's bring you into the conversation as well. You have called Jensen Wong the godfather of AI. Now that Jensen Wong is out, who potentially steps in? Is there someone who can lead Nvidia at the kind of level that Jensen Wong has, not just for Nvidia, but for the AI industry as a whole?

丹·艾维斯,我们也把你拉进对话中吧。你曾称黄仁勋为“AI教父”。现在黄仁勋离开了,谁可能接手?是否有人能在黄仁勋所达到的高度上领导英伟达,不仅是对英伟达而言,也是对整个AI行业而言?

Yeah, I thought Jean put it perfect in terms of some of the challenges as well as some of the opportunities for Nvidia. Look, in in my opinion, I I just think you when you look at Jensen and you look at going forward, it's a dark day for Nvidia. It's a it's a black eye moment for Jensen, but the reality is I think they're going to need someone from the outside. I mean, we've talked about Tim Cook and Nesh from Powalt Curran from from Google that that probably leads them forward.

是的,我认为让恩(Jean)很好地阐述了英伟达面临的一些挑战以及机会。说实话,在我看来,当你审视黄仁勋并展望未来时,这对英伟达来说是一个黑暗的日子,对黄仁勋个人而言也是一个蒙羞的时刻。但现实是,我认为他们需要一位来自外部的人选。我指的是蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)、Powerball Curran公司的Nesh,或者来自谷歌的人选,这些人可能会引领他们走向未来。

Colette, I think that is the best candidate internally. She has so much respect internally and externally. But there's a gut check moment for Nvidia and you know and it goes back to as I used to refer to Jensen as the godfather and all the stuff that he created. It's a blessing as it goes up. It's a curse as it goes down. Especially with no succession plan that Nvidia had.

科莱特(Colette),我认为她是内部最佳候选人。她在内部和外部都享有极高的尊重。但英伟达正处于一个需要直面现实的关头,回想一下,我曾称黄仁勋为“教父”,以及他所创造的一切。顺境时它是祝福,逆境时它就成了诅咒。尤其是英伟达此前没有制定继任计划的情况下。

Uh Gan, what do you think about potential successors here? We have heard uh Tim Cook uh the former Apple CEO floated by none other than President Trump as a a legend replacing a legend as as the president put it. Uh but are are there certain candidates that you look at who could uh who could step into Jensen Wong's shoes?

甘先生,你对潜在的继任者有何看法?我们曾听到前苹果CEO蒂姆·库克被特朗普总统本人提及,作为“传奇取代传奇”的人选。但是,你是否认为有一些特定候选人可以接替黄仁勋的位置?

Yeah, I think uh I mean that's a Dan did a awesome list there. There's not much more that I can add beyond I don't think it's Cook. I mean Cook's passion is Apple. I mean this is uh like his true love is Apple. I'd be surprised if he moved in a different direction. The chairmanship role is something that he spends time I think he was like in Turkey last week or just I mean he's still on the move with Apple. Uh, but I think as you think about Dan's list there, you know, those names are not household names.

是的,我认为……我的意思是,丹列出的那份名单非常出色。除了我不认为会是库克之外,我没什么可补充的了。我的意思是,库克的热情在于苹果。我的意思是,他的真爱就是苹果。如果他转向其他方向,我会感到惊讶。担任董事长一职需要花费时间,我想他上周还在土耳其,或者我的意思是,他仍然在为苹果四处奔波。但是,当你想到丹的那份名单时,你知道,那些名字并不是家喻户晓的名字。

And like Dan said, I mean, he is the godfather. And so I think regardless of who it is, it's just not going to have the same kind of uh drive. Just kind of some perspective about how hard Jensen drives to be the Godfather. Stan talks about uh last year he had six meetings with Trump. That's a form of branding. They had four major conferences, GTC's in one year. uh he did 16 individual interviews with Bloomberg, CNBC and Fox Business.

就像丹说的那样,我的意思是,他是教父。所以我认为,无论是谁接任,都不会有同样的那种驱动力。只是对黄仁勋如何努力成为‘教父’有一些看法。斯坦谈到,去年他与特朗普进行了六次会议。这是一种品牌塑造的形式。他们一年举办了四次主要会议,包括GTC大会。他还接受了彭博社、CNBC和福布斯商业频道的16次单独采访。

I mean, this guy's everywhere and there's just nobody who kind of even comes close to that. And so that's that dark day that Dan's talking about. I mean, there's no way to sugarcoat it. Probably the only positive here for those who uh like his evangelism around the AI is that he's not going away. He's going to he will show up in some capacity with some company down the road. He's just uh despite all the disgrace that has been around him more recently uh he still I think has is going to have a measure to make some money and I think that that will probably draw investment dollars.

我的意思是,这个人无处不在,根本没有人能接近这种程度。所以这就是丹所说的那个黑暗的日子。我的意思是,没有任何办法可以粉饰它。对于那些喜欢他在AI方面的布道的人来说,这里唯一的积极因素可能是他不会消失。他将来会以某种身份出现在某家公司。尽管最近围绕着他的是各种丑闻,但他仍然我认为会有一定的手段来赚钱,而且我认为这可能会吸引投资资金。

Yeah. To that point, we've heard Elon Musk even say that he'd be honored to hire Jensen Wong to one of his companies as well. But Dan, I got to ask you whether this could be more than just a dark day for Nvidia. Uh when we have reporting here from Bloomberg News that uh the Mega Speed executive uh at the center of the scandal, the suspected Chinese spy uh was able to bring advanced Nvidia chips into China. Isn't there going to be a lot more regulatory scrutiny now even than we might have expected uh after the Democrats midterm wins last week

是的。说到这一点,我们甚至听到埃隆·马斯克表示,他很荣幸能将黄仁勋聘用到他旗下的一家公司。但是,丹,我必须问你,这是否不仅仅是英伟达的一个黑暗日子?当我们看到彭博新闻的报道,称处于丑闻中心的Mega Speed高管、涉嫌中国间谍的人能够将先进的英伟达芯片带入中国。难道现在不会比我们上周民主党中期选举胜利后可能预期的那样,有更多的监管审查吗?

on both sides of the aisle? this not even, you know, Democrat versus Republican because when it comes to export controls, the loopholes in Singapore, the worry about, you know, how many chips, what percent was ultimately for Nvidia, if that was 15% overall chips, and then you have in the US, you have a weight list where today if you want Nvidia chip, you probably don't get it till 2028. So why are they getting in China when they should be getting here?

在走廊的两侧?这甚至不是,你知道的,民主党人 versus 共和党人,因为当涉及到出口管制时,新加坡存在的漏洞,令人担忧的是,你知道,有多少芯片,最终给英伟达的比例是多少,如果总体芯片中占15%,而在美国,你有一个权重列表,今天如果你想获得英伟达芯片,你可能要等到2028年。那么为什么他们能进入中国,而他们本应该在这里得到呢?

And I think these are all like just as Jean's talking about the global personality and what Jensen built on the upside was unbelievable and it's really what built Nvidia today. We won't be talking about the AI revolution. Nvidia is going to continue to be the most dominant chip in the world and they're two to three years ahead of anyone. But right now from a regulatory perspective in the beltway I mean you are going to see just so many different investigations relative to Nvidia chips mega speed and you know and then at the same time we're even talking you know Microsoft sitting here where we're all going to have to you know give do faxes and get our fax machines ready and thi

我认为这些都是像让正在谈论的全球人格一样,而詹森在上游建立的东西是难以置信的,这正是今天构建英伟达的原因。我们将不会谈论AI革命。英伟达将继续成为世界上最主导的芯片,并且领先于任何人两到三年。但目前在华盛顿特区的监管角度来看,你会看到许多与英伟达芯片超级速度相关的调查,你知道吗,同时我们甚至在谈论微软坐在这里,我们都必须准备传真机并发送传真,而这

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