Strategy被MSCI剔除，溢价收窄或致其BTC购买力枯竭

Michael Sailor just had a pretty rough day. Strategy has been officially booted from MSCI's indexes. That means index funds now have to dump billions worth of its shares by a set day, the close of the 30th of November. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading right around its 200 day moving average, the line between a normal pullback and a real downtrend. It hasn't had a daily close below it. Not yet. But strategy isn't the only crypto treasury getting removed from MSCI's indexes.

Metanet is out. So is Upexi. The biggest names in the crypto treasury trade struck from the indexes that much of the world's passive money is based on. And yet the market barely moved one way or another. So what's going on here and what happens next? Well, in this video, we'll look at what MSCI actually did and why the market shrugged it off. We'll find where you're likely to see the real damage. And we'll see what all of this means for Bitcoin, which is right on that allimportant 200-day moving average.

My name is Lewis and you're watching the Coin Bureau. So, what did MSCI actually do? Well, it published a list yesterday. It put out the final results of its latest index review and strategy comes out of the MSCIUSA index and because that index feeds into MSCI's world and ACWI benchmarks, the big global ones, it drops out of those as well. MSCI's reasoning is that the bulk of what these companies own is something that they hold, not something that they operate.

So in its eyes they look more like investment funds rather than operating businesses. Metaplanet is removed from the MSCI Japan small cap index. At the same time goes from the USA micro cap index. But what's the significance of this? Well, a passive fund holds what its index holds. So when a stock leaves that index, the fund has to sell it. And these changes take the final effect at the end of this month. So, what came yesterday evening was essentially a sell order.

But you might be wondering if index funds are being forced to sell the biggest name in the whole trade, why did the stock barely move? Well, because this wasn't really breaking news. MSCI adopted this rule back on the 15th of October and a provisional list of deletions followed. Strategy's stock dropped hard the next day. Then in its own quarterly filing, Strategy told shareholders it expected to be excluded. It also wrote to MSCI and that letter called the rule quote discriminary, arbitrary, and misguided.

MSCI didn't really seem to care though and went ahead anyway. So by the time the final list hit the timeline, anyone who wanted out had been given about a month to leave. In the 2 weeks before the notice, the stock fell around 14%. On the night itself, it slipped about 2% in after hours trading. The bad news had already been largely priced in. Now, through all of this, strategy carried on as normal. 2 days before MSCI's notice, it disclosed that it had bought another 1,036 Bitcoin.

Business as usual on the face of it. But here's what hasn't happened yet. The traders who saw this coming have sold. index funds haven't sold a single share. So, is the 30th of November deadline the real danger? Well, it's a considerable amount of selling, but it may be smaller than it sounds. Index funds usually trade at the closing price on the day a change takes effect. So, most of it should land in one go right at the bell.

When this idea was first proposed, JP Morgan estimated it would mean about $2.8 billion of passive selling in strategy. By strategies count, funds that track MSCI hold about 3% of its shares, which it says is less than a single day's trading volume. But whichever number you prefer, consider what's actually being sold. The funds are selling strategies stock. The Bitcoin never changes hands. Nothing in MSCI's decision forces strategy to sell its Bitcoin.

So to be clear, the 30th of November is an event for the shares and only the shares. If no Bitcoin gets sold and the share cell is roughly a day's trading by Strategy's own count, why should Bitcoin care at all? Well, because of how Strategy pays for its Bitcoin. Strategy has been issuing more and more new shares, and it uses the money to buy Bitcoin. But that only works under one condition. The shares have to sell for more than the Bitcoin behind them is worth.

A gap that's known as the premium. While the premium is there, every share cell leaves a little more Bitcoin behind each share that already exists. When the shares trade level with Bitcoin or below it, that stops being true and selling stock just waters down the people who already own it. So, the share price is kind of like the fuel and the fuel has been running low. Back in November 2024, the shares traded at nearly four times the value of the Bitcoin behind them.

On Strategy's dashboard last month, they were close to level, and depending on how you measure it, they may already be below. Now, let's go back to those 1,036 bitcoins Strategy recently bought. Strategy's filings show where that week's money came from and where it went. It raised $284 million by selling new shares. It spent 188 million buying back its own preferred stock and it spent 82 million on Bitcoin. So less than a third of the money went to Bitcoin.

A company built to buy Bitcoin spent more that week on its own paper than on Bitcoin. To be clear, that was the week before the notice. So MSCI didn't cause it. What MSCI does is take away one more source of demand for the stock. And a lower share price means each share sale buys less Bitcoin. Strategy's BTC yield figure is already negative for 2026 after a strongly positive 2025. At the moment, Strategy holds around $850,000 Bitcoin.

Its average cost is about $75,500 a coin. As I make this video, Bitcoin is about 73,500, which is a couple of percent under that. Needless to say, this is far from an ideal situation for strategy, its shareholders or Bitcoin holders. Now, with a fixed date on the calendar, this story is moving by the day. So, if you want updates as they hit the market and make sure that you're ahead of the curve on this, the Coin Bureau Telegram is where you need to be.

That's where we post breaking news and only the most important market updates so you get moving before the market does. The link is in the description or you can scan the QR code that's on the screen now. Okay, back to MSCI because we need to ask if this is only about strategy or even only about crypto. And the answer is actually no. The test MSCI applies doesn't mention crypto at all. It asks whether operating assets make up at least half of a company's total assets.

And the same review that removed strategy also removed a company called Yellow Cake. Yellow Cake is a UK firm that holds uranium. There's no crypto anywhere near it, and it's out all the same. MSCI's first iteration of the idea back in October 2025 was focused on digital assets. It dropped that in January 2026 and came back with this broader rule. So, MCI is treating this as a category. We're not looking at some kind of crypto grudge here.

MSCI has also put other crypto treasury companies on its watch list. Sharplank among them. Then there are other index providers and so far none of them has followed suit. But if FTS Russell, SNP or NASDAQ were to draw the same line, JP Morgan's estimate of the selling and strategy more than triples. So the companies set up to buy Bitcoin with their own stock are now on the wrong side of the line that other index providers could copy.

Which brings us to Bitcoin itself. What does it actually look like right now without those buyers at full strength? Well, it looks like a market leaning on a single level. And that level is the 200day moving average, which as I make this video is about $73,200. Bitcoin had closed above it for more than 80 days running. Then a couple of days ago, a hot inflation print hit the market. Bitcoin traded below the line for the first time since August.

Hundreds of millions of dollars of positions were liquidated over the fo