英伟达董事会讨论黄仁勋去留，股价盘后跌近9%
Nvidia Board Meets to Consider Replacing Jensen Huang
ANNA: GOOD MORNING, EVERYBODY. IT'S THURSDAY, IT'S NOVEMBER 12. HERE'S WHAT'S ON TODAY'S AGENDA. NVIDIA'S BOARD HAS BEEN MEETING TO DISCUSS JENSEN HUANG'S FUTURE, THE STOCK DROPPED NEARLY 9% POST MARKET. WHO STANDS TO GAIN FROM NVIDIA'S TURMOIL? WE LOOK AT COMPETITORS FROM SILICON VALLEY TO CHINA. AND THE AI BOOM DELIVERS A GUIDANCE UPGRADE FOR SIMONS. WE TRACK -- SIEMENS. TOM: WITH JENSEN HUANG'S FATE FIRMLY IN THE BALANCE RIGHT NOW NASDAQ 100 FUTURES POINTING TO THAT DROP AND CERTAINLY NVIDIA PART OF THAT MIX.
安娜：大家早上好。今天是11月12日，星期四。以下是今天的议程要点。英伟达（NVIDIA）董事会正在开会讨论黄仁勋的未来前景，该股盘后下跌近9%。谁将从英伟达的动荡中获益？我们审视从硅谷到中国的竞争对手。AI热潮为西门子（Siemens）带来业绩指引上调。我们要追踪——西门子。汤姆：随着黄仁勋的命运目前悬而未决，纳斯达克100期货指向下跌，且英伟达无疑是其中的一部分。
A BIG REASON WHY. WE ARE SO MUCH LOWER ON FUTURES. POINTING LOWER BY 1%. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT STORY. EUROPEAN FUTURES IN A DIFFERENT SPACE. FLEE STRAIGHT DAYS OF GAINS SET FOR A FULL STRAIGHT DAY OF UPSIDE AT RECORD HIGHS NOW EUROPEAN STOCKS. DO THEY BENEFIT FROM THE TRAVAILS AROUND AI? IS THIS A HAVEN FOR INVESTORS? CULTURE-THE-CURRENTLY POINTING HIGHER BY .2%. BRENT CRUDE AND OIL PRICES HAVE BEEN A FACTOR AND A CATALYST FOR EUROPE.
这是一个重大原因。我们的期货跌幅更大。期货下跌1%。我们继续关注这一故事。欧洲期货处于不同的态势。连续三个交易日的涨幅之后，欧洲股市有望迎来整整一个交易日的上涨，创下历史新高。它们是否受益于围绕AI的困境？这是否是投资者的避风港？文化指数目前上涨0.2%。布伦特原油和油价一直是欧洲的一个因素和催化剂。
AT AROUND $92 A BARREL HAVING A LITTLE WEAKER IN THE SESSION BUT NOW UP JUST .1%. THE COUNTDOWN TO "THE OPENING TRADE" STARTS RIGHT NOW. ANNA: WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYBODY. THIS IS "THE OPENING TRADE." ONE MINUTE PAST 7:00 HERE IN LONDON. AND EUROPEAN INVESTORS WAKING UP TO THE NEWS THAT THE BOARD OF NVIDIA HAS BEEN MEETING TO TALK ABOUT THE FUTURE OF JENSEN HUANG. AND WE DON'T KNOW YET. THE CONCLUSIONS OF THAT MEETING.
每桶约92美元，盘中略有走弱，但目前仅上涨0.1%。“开盘交易”（The Opening Trade）的倒计时现在开始。安娜：欢迎大家收看本节目，这里是“开盘交易”。伦敦时间早上7点过1分。欧洲投资者醒来面对的消息是，英伟达董事会正在开会讨论黄仁勋的未来。我们尚不知道那次会议的结论。
WHAT THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT. WHERE IN CONVERSATION GOES NEXT. BUT IT DOES ADD SOME EXTRA SORT OF URGENCY TO OUR THINKING AROUND JENSEN HUANG. HIS ROLE AT NVIDIA AND HIS ROLE IN THE WIDER TECH AI INFRASTRUCTURE. ECOSYSTEM.
他们正在谈论什么。对话接下来会走向何方。但这确实给围绕黄仁勋的思考增添了一些额外的紧迫感。他在英伟达的角色，以及他在更广泛的科技AI基础设施生态系统中的角色。
"THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" IS REPORTING THAT JENSEN HUANG WILL BE PUSHED OUT AS THE CEO. "THE NEW YORK TIMES" HAS REPORTED HE HAD A SECOND AFFAIR WITH A SENIOR EXECUTIVE AT NVIDIA. AND THIS EXECUTIVE LED THE HEALTH CARE BUSINESS. THE VICE PRESIDENT KIMBERLY POWELL. ACCORDING TO A REPORTING FROM "THE NEW YORK TIMES." IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY TENUOUS THEN HIS ROLE AS THE HEAD OF THIS BUSINESS. THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS FOR NVIDIA.
《华尔街日报》报道，黄仁勋将被迫辞去CEO一职。《纽约时报》报道他与英伟达的一位高级管理人员有第二段婚外情。这位高管领导着医疗保健业务。据《纽约时报》报道，副总裁金伯利·鲍威尔（Kimberly Powell）。因此，他作为该业务负责人的角色变得越来越不稳定。这对英伟达有影响。
THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE U.S. GOVERNMENT AS WELL. BECAUSE THE TOP LINE STORY IS THAT JENSEN HUANG, NVIDIA KNOWINGLY OR UNKNOWINGLY ALLOWING CHINA TO CATCH UP WITH CHINA ON THIS CRUCIAL TECHNOLOGY THAT IS EMBEDDED IN EVERYTHING FROM CIVILIAN SERVICES THROUGH TO DEFENSE? ANNA: YES. TOM: AND NAGS THE NATIONAL SECURITY LENS THROUGH WHICH MANY OF THESE INVESTIGATIONS OUTSIDE OF THIS BOARD MEETING WILL BE LOOKING. ANNA: THAT'S A NATIONAL SECURITY LENS AND ALSO WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE COMPANY SPECIFICALLY.
这对美国政府也有影响。核心故事是，黄仁勋明知或不知地允许中国在嵌入从民用服务到国防的每一项技术的关键技术上迎头赶上中国？安娜：是的。汤姆：并且这引发了国家安全视角，许多在这次会议之外的调查都将通过这一视角进行审视。安娜：这是一个国家安全视角，以及这对该公司具体意味着什么。
WE SAW POST MARKET THE STOCK DOWN BY 9%. I THINK TRADE GATE HAS -- FALLING THIS MORNING AS WELL HERE IN EUROPE. WHICH WILL BE NO SURPRISE TO ANYBODY. WHAT ARE ANALYSTS DOING IN THIS CONTEXT? WE SAW DANIZES, THIS IS A LITTLE DATED BUT INTERESTING TO THROW IN SUGGESTING THAT WITHOUT JENSEN HUANG, THE COMPANY WOULD BE WORTH 25% LESS. I KNOW ASIA TV TALKED TO A GUEST OVERNIGHT, AN ANALYST OVERNIGHT WHO WAS SAYING -- WHO CHANGED HIS VIEW ON NVIDIA SAYING I WOULD RATHER WATCH THIS CIRCUS FROM THE OUTSIDE OF THE TENT RATHER THAN BEING AN INVESTOR IN NVIDIA AT THIS POINT.
我们看到盘后股价下跌了9%。我认为TradeGate——欧洲这边今天早上也在下跌。这对任何人来说都不会感到意外。分析师在这种情况下在做什么？我们看到了Danizes的观点，虽然有点过时，但很有趣，他建议如果没有黄仁勋，该公司的价值将减少25%。我知道亚洲电视昨晚采访了一位过夜嘉宾，一位过夜分析师，他说——他改变了对英伟达的看法，说“我宁愿从这个帐篷外面看这场马戏表演，而不是在这个时间点成为英伟达的投资者。”
TOM: A STRING OF DOWNGRADES FROM THE BANKS AND A STRING OF PRICE CUTS FROM THE BANKS. AND THEY KEEP COMING. CITI THE LATEST TO CUT ITS PRICE TARGET. YOU GOT BERNSTEIN DOWNGRADING. DOWNGRADE FROM DAN IVES IS AN AI BULL AND THIS IS THE QUOTE FROM DAN IVES. JENSEN HAS CREATED A BLACK EYE MOMENT FOR HIMSELF AND NVIDIA. AND NOW HAS CREATED A SPIDER WEB OF COMPLEXITY THAT WALL STREET SILICON VALLEY, DC AND THE GLOBAL TECH ECOSYSTEM ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS NEXT.
汤姆：银行接连下调评级，银行也接连下调目标价。而且它们还在不断出现。花旗银行是最新下调目标价的机构。伯恩斯坦进行了降级。丹·伊维斯（Dan Ives）是一位AI多头，但他给出了这样的评论：“黄仁勋为自己和英伟达制造了一个‘黑眼’时刻（重大挫折），并现在编织了一张复杂的蜘蛛网，华尔街、硅谷、华盛顿特区以及全球科技生态系统都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。”
THE FOCUS OF COURSE WILL BE ON WHO TAKING OVER. THE CFO IS APPARENTLY IN THE MIX AND IS FAVORED BY SOME. SHE BY ALL ACCOUNTS HAS DONE A DECENT JOB. A VERY GOOD JOB AS A CFO OF THIS BUSINESS BUT DOES NOT HAVE THE ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL EXPERIENCE THAT JENSEN HUANG. ANNA: INDEED. DO WE -- DO WE SEE SOMEBODY PUT IN PLACE ON AN INTERIM BASIS? AND THE NAMES YOU SUGGEST THERE, VERY IMPORTANT. AND THEN WHERE DOES THE FUTURE STORY GO?
当然，焦点将集中在谁将接管。首席财务官显然参与其中，并且受到一些人的青睐。据各方说法，她做得相当不错。作为这家业务的首席财务官，她做得非常好，但她不具备黄仁勋那样的工程和专业技术经验。安娜：确实。我们——我们会看到有人以临时方式被安排到位吗？你提到的那些名字非常重要。然后未来的故事将走向何方？
LET'S THINK ABOUT WHO WINS THEN. AND WHO LOSES OUT AND MAYBE HERE. I WAS READING SOME INTERESTING THOUGHTS FROM OUR TEAM IN ASIA ABOUT WHO WINS AND LOSES IN CHINA. AND MAYBE PEOPLE WITHIN THE CHINA CHIP SPACE AND WE'VE SEEN CHIPA'S CHIP STOCKS ON THE RISE. BECAUSE THERE'S AN ASSUMPTION THAT MAYBE ON THE BACK OF THIS, HIS -- MORE DIFFICULT TO GET HOLD OF U.S. TECH AND DO SOMETHING MORE DOMESTIC. CHINA AI COMPANIES ARE IN RETREAT BECAUSE PERHAPS THERE ARE CONCERNS AROUND SOME OF THEIR OWN SUPPLY CHAINS.
让我们想想谁会赢，谁会输，也许在这里。我正在阅读我们亚洲团队关于在中国谁会赢谁会输的一些有趣观点。也许是芯片行业内部的人，我们已经看到ChipA的芯片股上涨。因为有一种假设，即在此背景下，获取美国技术变得更加困难，从而推动更多本土化。中国AI公司正在撤退，因为可能对其自身供应链存在一些担忧。
SO IT'S A MULTIFACETED STORY EVEN JUST FOR WHO WINS AND LEWISES IN CHINA NOT TO MENTION WHO WINS AND LOSES IN SILICON VALLEY. TOM: OTHER LOSERS IN SILICON VALLEY. HUNDREDS OF STARTUPS THAT HAVE BEEN BACKED BY NVIDIA AND THE PATTER INSHIP WITH BLACKROCK AND KKR AND A $500 BILLION AI INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN THAT NVIDIA WAS GOING TO LEAD. YOU'RE LOOKING AT SOME OF THE COMPANIES IT'S BACKED, AND COREWEAVE, BUT ALSO COMPANIES IN WHICH NVIDIA HAS INVESTMENTS INCLUDING INTEL, ON THE LOSER'S LIST AND ON THE GAINER'S LIST AMD, GOOGLE, ALPHABET PUSHING AGGRESSIVELY ON ITS NEW CHIP SETS, TPU'S AND ACCESSIBLE TO THE HYPER SCALERS AND AMD PLAYING CATCH-UP WITH NVIDIA AND THEY NOW LOOK PRETTY WELL PLACED.
因此，这甚至只是一个关于谁在中国获胜以及谁在硅谷获胜和失败的多面故事，更不用说硅谷的输家了。数百家得到英伟达（NVIDIA）支持的初创企业，以及与黑石（BlackRock）和KKR的合作关系，还有英伟达计划主导的5000亿美元AI基础设施计划。你正在看它支持的一些公司，比如CoreWeave，但也包括英伟达有投资的公司，其中包括英特尔（Intel），它在输家和赢家名单上都有出现；AMD、谷歌（Google）、Alphabet在其新的芯片组TPU方面积极推进，并向超大规模云服务商开放；而AMD正在追赶英伟达，它们现在看起来定位相当不错。
GIVEN THE TRAVAILS OF NVIDIA. STRUCTURALLY, FUNDAMENTALLY, THE DEMAND FOR NVIDIA'S CHIPS IS STILL THERE. BUT THE STRATEGIC FUTURE OF THIS COMPANY AND THE FIRE FIGHTING THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN HAVE TO HAPPEN NOW FROM WHOEVER TAKES OVER AS CEO OFF THE NEXT FEW MONTHS AND QUARTERS IS CLEARLY GOING TO BE A HEADWIND FOR THAT COMPANY. ANNA: YES. TO WHAT DEGREE? AND I DON'T KNOW IF WE KNOW ANSWER TO THAT YES DO WE QUESTION THE ROLE OF NVIDIA AS THE BALANCE SHEET FOR THE APE BUILDOUT?
鉴于英伟达所经历的磨难。从结构上和根本上看，对英伟达芯片的需求依然存在。但这家公司的战略未来以及即将发生的“救火”行动必须从现在开始发生，无论谁在接下来的几个月和几个季度接任CEO，显然都会成为该公司的逆风因素。安娜：是的。在多大程度上？我不知道我们是否知道答案。是的，我们是否质疑英伟达作为APE建设资产负债表的角色？
BECAUSE YOU'RE RIGHT TO FLAG. THE RELATIONSHIPS WITH SOME OF THOSE SMALLER COMPANIES THEY WILL BE IN FOCUS -- SMALLER COMPANIES. THEY WILL BE IN FOCUS. THE FACT THEY LENT OUT BALANCE SHEET TO OTHER BUSINESSES IN THE AI SPACE, JENSEN HUANG WAS BEHIND THAT. TO WHAT EXTENT THAT IS SOMETHING THAT THE BUSINESS CARRIES ON WITH? OR NOT? AND THAT WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR IN DETAIL. SHALL WE TALK ABOUT SOME EARNINGS?
因为你正确地指出了这一点。与其中一些较小公司的关系将成为焦点——较小的公司。它们将成为焦点。事实是，黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）主导了将资产负债表借给AI领域其他业务的做法。这在多大程度上是该业务继续延续的事情？或者不延续？这将是我们详细关注的事情。我们来谈谈一些财报数据吧？
TOM: YES. LET'S DO THAT. ANNA: LET'S TALK ABOUT SIEMENS BECAUSE THIS HAS A LINK-IN TO THE NVIDIA STORY. WE'VE SEEN PRESS EVENTS WHERE, YOU KNOW, ROLAND BUSH HAS BEEN KEEN TO -- TOM: BEEN ON STAGE. ANNA: HE HAS. EXACTLY. LIKE MANY, MANY EUROPEAN EXECUTIVES. NOT -- NOT ROLAND ONLY HERE BUT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THERE ARE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN NVIDIA AND LOTS OF EUROPEAN COMPANIES AND SIEMENS HAS GOT TO BE AT THE TOP OF THAT LIST REALLY.
汤姆：是的。我们就这么做吧。安娜：我们来谈谈西门子（Siemens），因为这与英伟达的故事有关。我们看到过新闻发布会，你知道，罗兰·布什（Roland Busch）一直渴望——汤姆：一直在台上。安娜：他确实如此。没错。就像许多欧洲高管一样。不是——不只是罗兰，这里还要强调英伟达与许多欧洲公司之间存在关系，西门子真的应该排在首位。
AND THEY HAVE PUT OUT A STRONG SET OF NUMBERS THIS MORNING. INCREASING THEIR GUIDANCE AND THIS IS PARTLY AN AI STORY AND PARTLY THE WIDER PORTFOLIO STORY. SO I SPOKE TO ROLAND EARLIER ON THE CEO AND HE WAS SAYING HUGE DEMAND ACROSS THE WHOLE PORTFOLIO. SO DATA CENTERS, AUTOMATION, EVERYTHING TO DO WITH DIGITAL. SO EVERYTHING, YOU KNOW, POSITIVE STORY IN PORE AREAS. HE SAYS LOTS OF WHAT IS BAKED IN FOR 2027 IS ALREADY BAKED IN.
他们今天早上公布了一组强劲的数字。提高了他们的指引，这部分是一个AI故事，部分也是更广泛的投资组合故事。所以我早些时候采访了首席执行官罗兰，他说整个投资组合的需求都非常巨大。所以数据中心、自动化、所有与数字化相关的事情。所以一切，你知道，在多个领域都是积极的故事。他说，很多已经为2027年 baked in（内置/确定）的内容现在已经 baked in 了。
SO THERE'S A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS. HE SAYS THE HYPERSCALERS ARE GOING ON WITH WHAT THEY'RE DOING AND OVER THE NEXT THREE YEARS, THEY'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY KIND OF SLOWDOWN. THERE COULD BE SLOWER PERMISSIONING IN THE STATES AROUND DATA CENTERS BUT AS FAR AS THEIR BUSINESS IS CONCERNED, THEY'RE NOT SEEING ANY KIND OF SLOWDOWN. AS FAR AS THAT RELATIONSHIP WITH NVIDIA GOES, HE SAYS BUSINESS AS USUAL BASICALLY.
因此，人们对这些数字充满信心。他表示，超大规模厂商仍在继续推进其业务，未来三年内他们预计不会出现任何放缓迹象。虽然围绕数据中心的审批流程在美国可能会变慢，但就其业务而言，他们并未看到任何放缓的迹象。至于与英伟达（NVIDIA）的关系，他表示基本上一切照旧。
WHICH IS -- A CEO OF A EUROPEAN CORPORATE AND CAN'T SAY MUCH ELSE AT THIS POINT. TOM: YEAH. HE GAVE A LITTLE DETAIL SAYING THAT THE PURCHASES OF CHIPS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE VULNERABLE THAN A BUSINESS LIKE SIEMENS. BUT THAT RELATIONSHIP AND OF COURSE THIS IS PART OF THE -- THIS IS PART OF THE JENSEN HUANG, HAS BEEN PART OF THE JENSEN HUANG SECRET SAUCE IS THIS SUPPLY CHAIN GRIP THAT NVIDIA NOW HAS. AND SIEMENS IS JUST ONE PLAYER, A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER WITHIN THAT SUPPLY CHAIN.
这位欧洲企业的CEO目前不便透露更多细节。汤姆：是的。他提供了一些细节，表示芯片采购可能比西门子（Siemens）这样的业务更具脆弱性。但这种关系，当然这也是黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）成功秘诀的一部分，即英伟达目前掌握的供应链掌控力。西门子只是该供应链中的一名参与者，尽管是重要参与者。
AND WITHIN THAT PARTNERSHIP. AND SET OF RELATIONSHIPS THAT JENSEN
以及在该合作伙伴关系和一系列关系中，黄仁勋所涉及的……
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