美联储Waller表示支持12月加息25个基点
Fed's Waller Supports Rate Hike in December
美联储高官公开表态支持12月加息，这是明确的货币政策信号，直接影响利率预期与资产定价逻辑，建议关注后续CPI数据验证及市场对12月决议的定价变化。
So let me put aside this discussion about the health of the labor market for now. What is important in the near term is that I see the labor market as stable, and employment at a level close to form sees maximum employment goal. By contrast, inflation is well above 2% and is the focus of my attention right now. For reasons I explained at the start of the speech, I was willing to wait to tighten monetary policy at the FOMC October meeting.
因此，让我暂时搁置关于劳动力市场健康状况的讨论。短期内重要的是，我认为劳动力市场保持稳定，就业水平接近充分就业目标。相比之下，通胀率远高于2%，这是我目前关注的重点。正如我在演讲开始时解释的那样，我愿意在美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）10月会议上暂缓收紧货币政策。
Inconveniently for today's event, we will get Consumer Price Index, or CPI inflation for October in a few hours. While I am hoping for an improvement over September, even if this occurs, I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC policy rate at our December meeting. However, if inflation comes in substantially higher than I expect, more robust action by the FOMC may be called for. So let's just say it inflation September's inflation data were bad.
对于今天的活动来说不太方便的是，我们将在几小时后获得10月的消费者价格指数（CPI）通胀数据。虽然我希望看到比9月有所改善，但即使出现这种情况，我仍支持在12月的FOMC会议上将政策利率提高25个基点。然而，如果通胀数据显著高于我的预期，可能需要采取更强劲的行动。所以我们就假设9月的通胀数据不佳吧。
There was no silver lining. Inflation based on personal consumption expenditures or PC inflation. The measure targeted by the FOMC rose at a monthly rate of 0.5% in September and 3.7% over the previous 12 months. Core PC inflation, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in September and 3.1% from that time last year. Both these measures are too high, and I'm particularly concerned about the breadth of price increases.
没有一丝亮点。基于个人消费支出的通胀（PC inflation），即FOMC瞄准的指标，在9月的月度环比增长率为0.5%，过去12个月的同比增长率为3.7%。剔除食品和能源价格的核心PC通胀在9月上升了0.3%，较去年同期上升了3.1%。这两个指标都过高，我特别担心价格上涨的广度。
Earlier this year, excessive inflation was driven by non-market prices that are estimated rather than observed by the government and ones that I tend to discount as hard to measure and as an unreliable guide to the overall trend for core inflation. But now two components with greater relevance to future inflation are elevated core goods prices and those core market based services excluding housing. More than 70% of the components of core PC service prices saw 12 month increases above 3% in September.
今年早些时候，过高的通胀是由非市场价格驱动的，这些价格由政府估算而非直接观察，而我倾向于认为它们难以衡量，且作为核心通胀整体趋势的指引不可靠。但现在，两个与未来通胀相关性更大的组成部分——核心商品价格和除住房以外的核心基于市场的服务价格——都处于高位。在9月，超过70%的核心服务价格组成部分的12个月涨幅超过3%。
It is not isolated to a few categories. Later today, I'll be looking to see whether this breadth of elevated inflation continues, including whether high tech goods prices related to the I build out continue to rise at the very high rate of recent months. I also want to know if the run up in energy prices of the past several months is being passed through to goods and services, directly or indirectly, because of higher import cost.
这并非局限于少数类别。今天稍后，我将查看这种广泛的通胀高企是否持续，包括与AI建设相关的高科技商品价格是否继续以近几个月极高的速度上涨。我还想知道，过去几个月能源价格的飙升是否因进口成本上升而直接或间接地传导至商品和服务中。
While I'm pleased to see energy prices down from their high rates over the last week or so, they are still quite elevated relative to the start of the year, and the ultimate effect on inflation will depend on what levels are sustained. Federal reserve staff have been thinking hard about the effects on inflation of the year. I build out an elevated energy prices, and their findings do not encourage me to think these factors will be fading any time soon.
尽管我很高兴看到能源价格在过去一周左右的时间里从高位回落，但与年初相比，它们仍然处于较高水平，而其对通胀的最终影响将取决于这些价格能维持在什么水平。美联储的工作人员一直在深入思考能源价格上涨对通胀的影响。我构建了一个包含能源价格走高的模型，他们的研究结果并没有让我相信这些因素会很快消退。
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