伯克希尔三季度财报：运营利润降5.8% 保险承保利润腰斩
3Q26 Berkshire Earnings - Key Takeaways
伯克希尔季度核心财务数据披露，涵盖各业务线盈利变动、浮存金规模及巨额回购动作，是跟踪其基本面与资金配置的关键一手信息，建议关注。
1. Operating earnings: $12,705M, −5.8% YoY. The decline insurance underwriting, partially offset by BNSF, BHE, and MSR
1. 营业利润：127.05亿美元，同比下降5.8%。下降主要受保险承保业务影响，部分被BNSF、BHE和MSR抵消
2. Underwriting profit (insurance): $1,683M pre-tax, −46.8% YoY. All three groups were down, and neither quarter had a significant catastrophe.
2. 承保利润（保险）：税前16.83亿美元，同比下降46.8%。三个部门均有所下降，且本季度未发生重大灾难。
- GEICO: $982M, −44.6%. Loss ratio 76.6% vs. 71.5%, on more frequent and more costly claims and lower average premiums. Expense ratio 14.8% vs. 12.8%. Combined ratio 91.4% vs. 84.3%.
- BH Primary: $119M, −76.5%. Premiums written −7.9%.
- BHRG: $582M, −34.2%, largely due to property/casualty. Property/casualty premiums written +7.0%, helped by the new Tokio Marine deal (~$700M written so far).
- GEICO：9.82亿美元，同比下降44.6%。赔付率76.6%，高于去年的71.5%，原因是索赔更频繁且成本更高，平均保费较低。费用率14.8%，高于去年的12.8%。综合赔付率91.4%，高于去年的84.3%。
- BH Primary：1.19亿美元，同比下降76.5%。已赚保费下降7.9%。
- BHRG：5.82亿美元，同比下降34.2%，主要由于财产/意外险业务。财产/意外险已赚保费增长7.0%，得益于与Tokio Marine的新协议（迄今已承保约7亿美元）。
3. Float ≈ $178.5B, up $1B from 2Q
3. 浮存金约1785亿美元，较第二季度增加10亿美元
4. BNSF: railroad operating earnings $2,482M, +15.6% YoY. Volume rose 3.9% and revenue per car rose 10.5% (fuel surcharges plus pricing), while flat labor costs absorbed a $468M (+60.6%) jump in fuel. Operating ratio 63.9% vs. 64.1%.
4. BNSF：铁路营业利润24.82亿美元，同比增长15.6%。货运量增长3.9%，每车收入增长10.5%（含燃油附加费和定价调整），而劳动力成本持平，吸收了燃油成本4.68亿美元的大幅上涨（增幅60.6%）。运营比率63.9%，略低于去年的64.1%。
5. BHE: $1,612M net, +8.3% YoY. U.S. utilities (+22.8%) and pipelines (+20.9%) drove the growth, on higher volumes and rates, a pipeline rate case, and lapping a $100M PacifiCorp wildfire charge. Effective tax rate −53.2% vs. −66.4%, largely driven by pretax earnings growth while tax credits were about the same. This trend is worth watching given the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill and potential phase out of credits.
5. BHE：净利润16.12亿美元，同比增长8.3%。美国公用事业（+22.8%）和管道业务（+20.9%）推动了增长，原因是销量和费率上升、管道费率案件以及去年PacifiCorp野火费用的基数效应。有效税率-53.2%，高于去年的-66.4%，主要由于税前利润增长而税收抵免基本持平。鉴于2025年《一项宏大美丽法案》及潜在的税收抵免逐步取消，这一趋势值得密切关注。
6. Manufacturing, service & retailing: $4,042M net, +11.8% YoY, led by industrial.
6. 制造、服务与零售：净利润40.42亿美元，同比增长11.8%，由工业板块引领。
- PCC and IMC: PCC pre-tax +29.6% (aerospace, gas turbines for power); IMC +29.8% on price increases, though IMC warns raw-material costs will hurt earnings into 2027.
- OxyChem: $1.3B of revenue but only $71M pre-tax (~5% margin), held down by extra depreciation from purchase accounting. YTD it is earning about 2.7% pre-tax annualized on the ~$9.4B price, so the return looks thin on a GAAP basis so far.
- Building products: revenue rose 19.3% with Taylor Morrison, but pre-tax income fell 3.4%
- PCC和IMC：PCC税前利润增长29.6%（航空航天、用于发电的燃气轮机）；IMC因价格上涨增长29.8%，尽管IMC警告原材料成本将在2027年前拖累盈利。
- OxyChem：营收13亿美元，但税前利润仅71亿美元（利润率约5%），受购买会计法下额外折旧的影响。年初至今，按约94亿美元的收购价格计算，其年化税前收益率约为2.7%，因此在GAAP基础上目前的回报率显得微薄。
- 建材产品：随Taylor Morrison营收增长19.3%，但税前利润下降3.4%
7. Tariff refunds: at Marmon, building products and apparel; not quantified and won't recur.
7. 关税退款：涉及Marmon、建材产品和服装板块；金额未量化且不会重复发生。
8. No significant catastrophes so far in 2026
8. 2026年至今尚未发生重大灾难
9. Cash & T-bills: $352B, down $7B from 2Q26
9. 现金及国债：3520亿美元，较2026年第二季度减少70亿美元
10. Equities: small net seller of $0.4B in Q3 (sold $2.8B, bought $2.4B)
10. 股票投资：第三季度净卖出0.4亿美元（卖出28亿美元，买入24亿美元）
11. Buybacks: $9,647M in Q3
11. 股票回购：第三季度96.47亿美元
12. $2B buybacks so far in 4Q
12. 第四季度迄今回购20亿美元
13. Tokio Marine quota share quantified for the first time (~$700M written to date)
13. Tokio Marine比例再保险首次量化（迄今已承保约7亿美元）
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力