万斯批评伊朗战争，特朗普称油价主因非冲突
JD Vance Criticizes Iran War as GOP Blame Game Starts
US vice president. Meanwhile, JD Vance has pinned the Republican Party's midterm losses squarely on the Iran war, setting the stage then for a renewed debate on President Trump's foreign policy. Trump spoke to reporters in the aftermath of the vote. The Iran thing we had to do, and we continue to do it. We have tremendous oil flowing out of the harmless right now. At the beginning, there was none. And, uh, probably that's the primary reason for the price, not the war, the price.
美国副总统。与此同时，JD·万斯将共和党在中期选举中的失利 squarely（ squarely 意为“ squarely ”，此处保留原意或译为“明确地”）归咎于伊朗战争，从而为重新辩论特朗普总统的外交政策铺平了道路。投票结束后，特朗普接受了记者采访。他说：“关于伊朗的事，我们不得不做，而且我们仍在继续做。目前我们有大量的石油从无害的[地区/来源]流出。起初，那里没有任何石油。嗯，这可能才是价格的主要原因，而不是战争，是价格。”
We're joined now by Bloomberg's Oliver Crook in New York. Um, oddly, how much should we read into this apparent split between the vice president and the president and whether or not it signals deeper rifts in the Republican Party and how damaging that could be for the president? Yeah. I mean, I think that going forward, we're going to have to see how everybody kind of finds their feet in the wake of this, uh, complete wipe out of the Republican Party, and particularly those Republicans that are particularly close to the president, how they're going to navigate that path.
我们现在连线彭博社驻纽约的奥利弗·克鲁克（Oliver Crook）。嗯，我们应该如何解读副总统与总统之间这种明显的分歧？这是否预示着共和党内部存在更深的裂痕？这对总统来说会造成多大的损害？是的。我的意思是，我认为接下来，我们必须看看每个人在这场共和党全面惨败之后，尤其是那些与总统关系特别密切的共和党人，将如何找到自己的立足点并应对这一局面。
I mean, the president did comment on the tweets or the ex post, I should say that Vice President Vance put out. He said that it was fine, that it was good. And obviously in that post itself. Vance did blame the war in Iran, but he was also saying, as the president himself. Has acknowledged. So I think the messaging is going to be very interesting about with all of these Republicans. I think that for those that are very close to the president, you think of JD Vance, who clearly wants to be a presidential candidate in 28, potentially.
我的意思是，总统确实对万斯副总统发布的推文（或者我应该说是事后声明）发表了评论。他说这没问题，这是好事。显然，在那篇帖子本身中，万斯确实将责任归咎于伊朗战争，但他同时也表示，正如总统本人所承认的那样。因此，我认为关于所有这些共和党人的信息传递将会非常有趣。我认为对于那些与总统关系非常密切的人，比如 JD·万斯，他显然希望成为2028年的总统候选人。
Marco Rubio is another. Those that are very close to the president had this very difficult balancing act, while on the one hand they have taken basically everything hook, line and sinker from the president and touted it and move forward with it. We know that JD Vance was resistant to the war in Iran originally, but of course, he's been made a very sort of prominent part of those negotiations and has been forced to wear it to a large degree.
马可·鲁比奥（Marco Rubio）是另一个例子。那些与总统关系非常密切的人面临着非常困难的平衡：一方面，他们基本上全盘接受并推崇了总统的一切主张，并据此推进；另一方面，我们知道 JD·万斯最初对伊朗战争持抵制态度，但当然，他已成为这些谈判中一个非常突出的参与者，并在很大程度上被迫承担这一角色。
There are those that are a little bit further from the president, like the Florida governor, a soon to be ex governor, Ron DeSantis, who potentially, you know, stand to gain from this kind of situation where they're a little bit further from the president. And we should say that in Florida, they did manage to retain both the governor and the Senate seat there. So potentially that's where they were. You know, those things are going to evolve.
还有一些人与总统距离稍远一些，比如佛罗里达州州长、即将卸任的州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis），在这种情况下，他们可能会从中获益，因为他们与总统的距离稍远。我们也应该指出，在佛罗里达州，他们成功保住了州长职位和参议院席位。所以潜在的情况可能是这样的。你知道的，这些情况将会演变。
But again, I think it's a very difficult thing to walk for this Republican Party. Basically, everybody in this Republican Party who basically completely went with everything that Trump wanted to do. And Trump is not a person who's ideologically coherent. It's what Trump wants. And the Republicans have effectively fallen in line. So I think the question for both the Democrats and the Republicans is, what does this party stand for ideologically going into 2028?
但话说回来，我认为这对共和党来说是一件非常困难的事。基本上，共和党里的每个人都完全顺从了特朗普想要做的一切。而特朗普不是一个在意识形态上连贯的人。一切取决于特朗普想要什么。共和党人已经有效地跟进了。所以我认为，对于民主党和共和党来说，问题是：在迈向2028年之际，这两个党派在意识形态上代表什么？
For the Democrats, it was enough to be anti-Trump for the time being. That will not be the case for the next two years. Big questions will watch them unfold. The answers to those then, only in terms of energy markets. We do now seem to be pricing a big change in foreign policy from the United States into energy markets. That's the conclusion from a 95 handle on Brent and much lower prices on gas. And are we expecting too much?
对民主党人来说，暂时反特朗普就足够了。但在接下来的两年里情况将并非如此。一些重大问题将等待他们去展开。对这些问题的回答，仅从能源市场的角度来看。我们现在似乎正在将美国外交政策的重大变化定价到能源市场中。这是布伦特原油95手（注：此处原文为'95 handle'，结合语境可能指价格水平或特定交易单位，保留英文原词或意译为价格信号，根据规则保留术语惯用译法，此处'handle'在金融交易中常指一手/合约单位，但结合'pricing a big change'更可能指市场定价反映预期，故译为市场定价）和天然气价格大幅下跌得出的结论。我们是否期望过高了？
I mean, lots of people have said yes. You know, the the, uh, this was a verdict on the Iran war. But at the same time, the president has quite a lot of freedom in the foreign policy field. Yeah, absolutely. I think there's two ways we can think about this. There are the ways in which, mechanically, now the Democrats can find ways to constrain the president of the United States, potentially with the power of the purse that lies in Congress, that Congress now lies with the Democrat.
我的意思是，很多人说确实如此。你知道，这被视为对伊朗战争的裁决。但同时，总统在外事领域拥有相当大的自由。是的，绝对如此。我认为我们可以从两个方面来思考这个问题。一方面，民主党可以机械地找到限制美国总统的方法， potentially 利用国会掌握的财政权，而目前国会由民主党控制。
That is potentially one way they can go about it. But there is, of course, there's vibe shift in the United States very much opposed to this war, as has been clearly exemplified with this midterm election. So potentially the president himself considering taking another route. But what I think is really interesting, and you got it up there. You've got the gas futures down in Europe pretty hard. Uh, crude oil down almost 10% over the last three days.
这可能是他们采取的一种方式。但当然，美国内部存在一种强烈反对这场战争的氛围转变，这在本次中期选举中已得到明确体现。因此，总统本人可能会考虑采取另一条路线。但我认为真正有趣的是，正如你刚才提到的。欧洲的天然气期货价格大幅下跌。过去三天，原油价格几乎下跌了10%。
But what is interesting is that is sort of the price action in the energy market. If you look at the fed pricing, that has not changed so much if you look over the next sort of year. So if you really thought that the war was going to end in a sustainable manner and that that was not something we need to worry about anymore, presumably your pricing in terms of what the fed has to do in the next 12 months would have come down dramatically, and we have not seen that yet across the, uh, the interest rate expectations within the market.
但有趣的是能源市场的价格走势。如果你看美联储的定价，如果展望未来一年左右，它并没有发生太大变化。所以，如果你真的认为战争将以可持续的方式结束，并且那不再是我们需要担心的事情，那么 presumably 你对美联储在未来12个月内必须做什么的定价应该会大幅下降，而我们尚未在市场上的利率预期中看到这一点。
That being said, you also look at the US, uh, curve now versus Monday before the vote. It is down a little bit in terms of yields, but it's not down that much dramatically.
话虽如此，你也可以看看美国的情况，嗯，现在的收益率曲线与投票前周一相比。收益率略有下降，但并没有出现大幅度的急剧下跌。
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