美股科技股与比特币遭抛售，纳斯达克进入修正区
Tech Selloff Deepens as AI & Bitcoin Slide
涵盖纳斯达克进入修正、关键均线失守及加密市场联动等结构性行情拐点，对判断短期市场风险极具参考价值。
THE COUNTDOWN IS ON. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO GET THE EDGE AT THE END OF THE MARKET DAY. THIS IS "THE CLOSE." ROMAINE: THE INDEX SELLOFF, THE AVERAGE STOCK IS A SELLOFF TOO. LIVE FROM STUDIO 2, I'M ROMAINE BOSTICK.
倒计时已经开始。你需要的一切，以在交易日收盘时占据优势。这是《收盘》节目。罗梅恩：指数抛售，平均股价也在抛售。我在2号演播室现场报道，我是罗梅恩·博斯蒂克。
WE ARE KICKING YOU OFF TO THE CLOSING BELL IN THE U.S., JUST OVER ONE HOUR AND LOOK AT THE NASDAQ 100. THAT IS LEADING LOSSES IN EQUITY TODAY. WE HAVE BEEN SAYING ALL WEEK THAT IT IS JUST A ROTATION. TODAY IS LOOKING LIKE A BROAD SELLOFF BECAUSE THE EQUAL WEIGHT S&P 500 FOLLOWING THOSE DECLINES MORE THAN 1%. WE CANNOT FORGET ABOUT BITCOIN, WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE WAKE OF THE BINANCE HACK. DOWN 2.9%. I AM SURE THAT IS REFLECTING THE BROAD RISK AVERSION WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
我们将带您进入美国市场的收盘钟声，还有一个多小时。看看纳斯达克100指数。这就是今天股市领跌的原因。我们本周一直在说这只是一轮板块轮动。但今天看起来像是一轮广泛的抛售，因为等权重标普500指数跟随下跌超过1%。我们不能忘记比特币，在币安被黑客攻击之后发生了什么。下跌2.9%。我确信这反映了我们今天看到的广泛风险规避情绪。
IT IS FRIDAY, WE HAVE TO LOOK AT OIL. UP 2.4% BECAUSE TRADERS NEVER SHORT OF OIL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. ROMAINE: CLOSING OUT THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, WHICH ACTUALLY BEGAN WITH A FOUR-DAY RALLY IN THE S&P I NASDAQ 100. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END THE MONTH WITH WHAT IS THE WORST SINGLE DAY DROP SINCE JUNE BUT THE TECHNICALS A LOT MORE WORRISOME THAN THE SUPERLATIVES ALONE. THE S&P SET TO CLOSE BELOW THE 100 DAY MOVING AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE APRIL.
今天是周五，我们必须关注石油。上涨2.4%，因为交易员在周末前从不缺乏买入石油的机会。罗梅恩：结束十月份的交易，实际上标普和纳斯达克100指数月初曾经历了一波四天的反弹。它看起来将以自六月以来最糟糕的单日跌幅结束本月，但技术面比单纯的极端描述更令人担忧。标普500指数即将跌破100日均线，这是自四月以来的首次。
THE PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX NOW BELOW ITS 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE. THE FIRST CLOSE BELOW THAT IN A YEAR-AND-A-HALF. THE NASDAQ 100 NOW IN CORRECTION TERRITORY, DOWN 10% FROM ITS MOST REASON RECORD HIGH. NOT HELPING MATTERS IS THAT HEDGE FUNDS HAVE SWITCHED FROM HEDGING THEIR LONG AI EXPOSURE TO SINGLE STOCK SHORTS, NOW BETTING AGAINST THE INDEXES OVERALL. THIS IS BOOSTING STOCK CORRELATION AND LEADING TO A GREATER RISK OF EVEN MORE DISORDERLY MOVES.
费城半导体指数现已低于其200日均线。这是一年半以来首次收盘价低于该均线。纳斯达克100指数已进入修正区域，较近期记录高点下跌10%。情况并未好转，因为对冲基金已从对冲其长期AI敞口转向做空个股，现在整体押注看空指数。这推高了股票相关性，并导致出现更多无序波动的风险增加。
KEEP AN I ON THAT SPACE. IT RAISES QUESTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS ON THIS LAST TRADING DAY OF THE MONTH. OUR NEWS REPORTS HAVE LARGELY DELIVERED ON EXPECTATIONS. RECORD REVENUE GROWTH, RECORD PROFITABILITY GROWTH BUT THE SCRUTINY RIGHT NOW BY INVESTORS TO PARSE EVERY NICKEL AND DIME OF COST IS CLEARLY SHOWING THE GAME HAS CHANGED. INCOME STATEMENTS A LOT LESS IMPORTANT THAN THE BALANCE SHEETS RIGHT NOW. BALANCE SHEETS THAT ARE STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE FAT AT A TIME WHEN ALPHABET IS SHOWING CRACKS IN ITS ADVERTISING BIZ.
密切关注这一领域。这引发了人们对本月最后一个交易日将发生什么的疑问。我们的新闻报道在很大程度上符合预期。创纪录的收入增长，创纪录的盈利能力增长，但投资者目前仔细审视每一分钱的成本，显然表明游戏规则已经改变。损益表的重要性远不如资产负债表。而在Alphabet（谷歌母公司）的广告业务出现裂痕之际，其资产负债表开始显得有些臃肿。
INTEL PROLONG AND EVEN MORE PC SLUMP. AND SANDISK GETTING DINGED AS PEOPLE ASK ABOUT THE DURATION OF THE AI BUILDUP WRIT LARGE. SEE THE DRAWDOWN EFFECT THAT WE ARE WITNESSING ON THE NASDAQ 100. RAISING A LOT OF QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THIS IS A TEMPORARY END OF MONTH SELLOFF OR ACTUALLY THE START OF A MUCH LONGER DOWNTREND. LET'S BRING IN THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF INTERNET EQUITY RESEARCH AT WOLFE RESEARCH. I THINK AMAZON IS KIND OF THE CONUNDRUM, ONE OF THE CONUNDRUMS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING NOW IN THE AI TRADE AND THE AI SELLOFF.
英特尔（INTEL）进一步延长并加剧了个人电脑市场的低迷。随着人们关注AI建设热潮的持续时间，闪迪（SANDISK）也受到冲击。我们看到纳斯达克100指数（NASDAQ 100）正在经历这种回撤效应，这引发了许多疑问：这究竟是月末暂时的抛售，还是更长周期下跌趋势的开始？让我们请沃尔夫研究公司（WOLFE RESEARCH）互联网股票研究主管加入讨论。我认为亚马逊（AMAZON）是一个难题，也是我们在AI交易和AI抛售中看到的诸多难题之一。
A COMPANY GENERATING A LOT OF REVENUE, BOTH IN TERMS OF ITS CLOUD BUSINESS, THE NEWFANGLED AI BUSINESS. WHILE THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME CRACKS AND THE MORE TRADITIONAL BUSINESS, THIS IS STILL A BEHEMOTH. WE SAW A HUGE SELLOFF BEFORE IT STARTED TO RECOVER SOME OF THOSE LOSSES. BUT IT RAISES THE QUESTIONS AS TO WHAT EXACTLY INVESTORS WANT TO HEAR FROM AMAZON AND ITS PEERS GOING FORWARD.
这是一家在云业务和新潮AI业务方面都产生大量收入的公司。尽管传统业务确实出现了一些裂痕，但它仍然是一个庞然大物。在开始恢复部分损失之前，我们看到了大幅抛售。但这引发了一个问题：投资者未来究竟希望从亚马逊及其同行那里听到什么。
FIRST OF ALL, THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. YES, EVEN THOUGH IN THE AFTER HOURS LAST NIGHT THE STOCK WAS PULLING BACK A LOT MORE THAN TODAY'S REACTION, IT IS TELLING THAT THE FUNDAMENTALS, THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS OF THE BUSINESS ARE QUITE ROBUST. IF WE LOOK AT AWS GROWTH RATE OF 39%, IRRESPECTIVE OF WHERE THE HIGH BAR OR THE EXPECTATIONS WERE, IT IS FUNDAMENTALLY STRONG GROWTH GIVEN THE SCALE OF THE BUSINESS, THE SEQUENTIAL DOLLAR GROWTH OF AWS WAS HIGHER THAN ANY OTHER CLOUD PROVIDER.
首先，感谢邀请我。是的，尽管昨晚盘后股价回调幅度远大于今天的反应，但事实证明该业务的底层基本面相当强劲。如果我们看AWS（亚马逊网络服务）39%的增长率，无论高基准或预期如何，考虑到业务规模，这都是基本面的强劲增长。AWS的环比美元增长高于任何其他云提供商。
RETAIL BUSINESS WAS MIDTEENS PERCENT FOR THIS SCALE. BUSINESS AS WELL AS ADVERTISING GROWTH MAJESTIC FOR THE CROP -- PRIME DAY IMPACT AND A COUPLE OF OTHER THINGS IS 20% PLUS. ACROSS SEGMENTS, THEY ARE FIRING ON ALL CYLINDERS. WHAT INVESTORS REALLY WANTED TO SEE AND HEAR IS AT THIS POINT, A VAST MAJORITY OF AMAZON'S ENTERPRISE VALUE COMES FROM AWS. THE AMOUNT OF CAPITAL THEY ARE SPENDING IN AWS AGAINST THE REVENUE AND OPERATING INCOME POTENTIAL IS WHAT IS THE KEY AREA OF FOCUS.
零售业务对于这一规模而言是中双位数百分比增长。广告业务增长势头宏大——Prime Day的影响以及其他几项因素推动其达到20%以上。各个部门都在全速运转。投资者真正想看到和听到的是，在这一点上，亚马逊绝大部分的企业价值来自AWS。他们投入AWS的资本与收入及营业利润潜力之间的比例，是关键的关注领域。
THEY DELIVERED. WE ARE ON TRACK FOR $1 TRILLION IN REVENUE OVER A FIVE TO 10 YEAR PERIOD, WITH 40% GROWTH FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT. THAT IN ITSELF IS REMARKABLE. ROMAINE: IT IS REMARKABLE BUT IT RAISES A LOT OF QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER IT IS ENOUGH. IS THIS A FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH OF THE STOCKS HAVE GOTTEN BID UP? IT IS NOT JUST AMAZON. WE SAW SOME OF THE REACTION WITH REGARDS TO ALPHABET. STILL A HEALTHY COMPANY BUT IT SEEMS EVEN THE MOST MODEST OF ISSUES, THE MOST MODEST OF PROBLEMS LEADS TO THESE OVERSIGHT SELLOFFS.
他们交出了答卷。我们正朝着五年到十年内实现1万亿美元收入的目标迈进，连续两年实现40%的增长。这本身就非同寻常。罗梅恩（ROMAINE）：这确实非同寻常，但也引发了许多疑问：这是否足够？这是否是这些股票被推高程度的反映？这不仅限于亚马逊。我们看到谷歌母公司Alphabet（ALPHABET）也出现了一些反应。它仍然是一家健康的公司，但似乎即使是微小的问题、最轻微的问题也会导致这种过度反应的抛售。
SHWETA: ABSOLUTELY. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AMAZON AND THE FEAR AT GOOGLE OR ALPHABET IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT. THE COMMON THEME IS THE AMOUNT OF CAPITAL THESE COMPANIES ARE SPENDING AND THE CAPITAL THEY ARE RAISING BETWEEN DEBT AND EQUITY. THAT IS A COMMON THEME AND IT IS CERTAINLY A CONCERN BECAUSE HISTORICALLY, THESE COMPANIES WERE VERY HEALTHY OPERATING CASH FLOW OR GENERAL FREE CASH FLOW. AGAINST THAT, YOU NEED TO HAVE GROWTH.
SHWETA：绝对如此。亚马逊与谷歌或Alphabet所面临的担忧之间的差异略有不同。共同的主题是这些公司在债务和股权融资方面投入的资本规模以及它们筹集的资本量。这是一个共同主题，也无疑是一个令人担忧的问题，因为从历史上看，这些公司的经营性现金流或自由现金流都非常健康。在此基础上，你需要实现增长。
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AMAZON AND GOOGLE IN THIS PRINT IN PARTICULAR IS THIS IS THE FIRST QUESTION. WE BELIEVE THAT GOOGLE WILL FIGURE THIS OUT. THEY HAVE TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF DISTRIBUTION DATA AND THE TECH CAPABILITIES. THIS IS A NEAR-TERM GLITCH BUT THAT IS THE CONCERN THAT IS FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE ARE SEEING AT AMAZON. BOTH COMPANIES ARE STANDING BUT GOOGLES HIGH-MARGIN BREAD-AND-BUTTER OF THEIR BUSINESS WHICH COMES IN THE FORM OF SEARCH IS NOW STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF PERHAPS MODERATION.
在此背景下，亚马逊与谷歌之间的区别在于这是第一个问题。我们相信谷歌会解决这个问题。他们拥有巨量的分发数据和技术能力。这是一个短期故障，但这一担忧与我们在亚马逊看到的情况存在根本性差异。两家公司目前都面临挑战，而谷歌高利润的核心业务——以搜索形式呈现的业务——现在开始显示出可能放缓的迹象。
CHRISTINE: AS ROMAINE MENTIONED, THERE IS STILL NOW THE FOCUS A LOT ON COMPANY BALANCE SHEETS. AS YOU MENTIONED. EVEN THOUGH SPENDING IS UP, REVENUE IS UP, SOME COMPANIES THAT WE HAVE SEEN REPORT OVER FLOWS. DO YOU THINK THAT WILL BE ONE DIFFERENTIATOR BETWEEN THE WINNERS AND LOSERS THAT COULD EVENTUALLY COME FROM THESE TECH SELLOFFS WE ARE SEEING NOW? CHRISTINE: ABSOLUTELY. NOW WE ARE STARTING TO HEAR MANAGEMENT TEAMS BE HEARD FROM -- WE HEARD FROM THE CFO AT ALPHABET.
CHRISTINE：正如ROMAINE提到的，人们现在仍然非常关注公司的资产负债表。正如你所指出的，尽管支出增加，收入也在增加，但我们看到的一些公司报告出现了资金流问题。你认为这是否会成为最终从我们目前看到的科技股抛售中区分出赢家与输家的一个差异化因素？CHRISTINE：绝对如此。现在我们开始听到管理层的声音——我们听到了Alphabet首席财务官的发言。
WE HEARD FROM ANDY JASSY AT AMAZON. ALL OF THEM ARE NOW ACTUALLY EXPLICITLY TALKING TO RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL AND HOW THEY ARE POSITIONING THEMSELVES AGAINST THAT A MAN THEY ARE SEEING. VERY FEW COMPANIES ARE IN A POSITION WHO HAVE VERY HEALTHY BALANCE SHEET AND OPERATING CASH FLOW TO SUPPORT THIS LEVEL OF CAPEX. GETTING OUT OF THIS AI SORT OF CAPITAL SPEND, THE COMPANIES THAT WILL SURVIVE ARE THE ONES WHICH WILL HAVE HEALTHY BALANCE SHEET, HEALTHY OTHER SOURCES OF REVENUE, NOT JUST THE AI BASED REVENUE.
我们也听到了亚马逊Andy Jassy的发言。所有这些公司现在都在明确讨论投入资本回报率（ROIC），以及它们如何根据自己观察到的情况来定位自身。很少有公司处于拥有非常健康的资产负债表和经营性现金流以支持这种水平资本支出的地位。要从这种AI相关的资本支出中走出来，能够幸存下来的公司将拥有健康的资产负债表、健康的其他收入来源，而不仅仅是基于AI的收入。
TO BE ABLE TO SUPPORT THIS LEVEL OF CAPITAL SPEND. DOING SO INVARIABLY, THERE WILL BE SOME COMPANIES THAT WILL ARGUABLY BE STRUCTURALLY LEFT OUT. THE ONES THAT WILL SURVIVE AT THE OTHER END OF THE CYCLE WILL BE THE ONES THAT WILL THRIVE FOR MANY YEARS TO COME. CHRISTINE: APART FROM THE AI EXPOSED THE SIDE OF THE BUSINESS FOR AMAZON RESULTS, WE DID SEE THE CORE E-COMMERCE GROWTH SLOWING TO JUST 2%. WHAT IS YOUR TAKE AWAY FROM THAT?
以支持这种水平的资本支出。这样做不可避免地，会有一些公司被认为在结构上被排除在外。能够在周期另一端幸存下来的公司将是那些在未来多年里都能繁荣发展的公司。CHRISTINE：除了亚马逊财报中受AI影响的部分外，我们看到其核心电商增长放缓至仅2%。你对此有何看法？
IS THAT ENOUGH REASON TO WORRY ABOUT THE WEAKNESS IN THE NON-AI SIDE OF THE BUSINESS THAT SPEAKS MORE TO THE REAL ECONOMY? SHWETA: WELL, THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION. THE RETAIL BUSINESS IN OUR VIEW ACTUALLY IS DOING FAIRLY WELL. DOING. PART OF THE WEAKNESS WAS ARGUABLY A NEAR-TERM TIMING ISSUE WHERE THIS YEAR AMAZON DID THEIR PRIME DAY IN THE SECOND QUARTER AND WHEN WE COMPARED ON A YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS, LAST YEAR AND HISTORICALLY, THEY DO IT IN THE THIRD QUARTER.
非人工智能业务板块（更侧重于实体经济）的疲软是否足以令人担忧？SHWETA：嗯，这是个很好的问题。我们认为，零售业务实际上表现相当不错。部分疲软原因可以说是短期时机问题，今年亚马逊将 Prime Day 活动安排在第二季度，而当我们进行同比比较时，去年及历史上他们都是在第三季度举办该活动。
ADJUSTING FOR THE FOUR PERCENTAGE POINTS OF THE PRIME DAY IMPACT, RETAIL GROWTH WAS FAIRLY HEALTHY FOR A BUSINESS OF THIS SCALE. WHEN WE LOOK AT UNIT VOLUME GROWTH, THAT IS VERY ATTRACTIVE. THE MOAT IN RETAIL THAT AMAZON IS BUILDING -- AMAZON HAS NOW PENETRATED MOST CATEGORIES REALLY WELL DESPITE E-COMMERCE BEING 25% OF THE OVERALL RETAIL INDUSTRY. THE MOAT THAT AMAZON HAS BUILT OVER THE LONG TERM IS AUTOMATION. THAT IS WHERE THEY WILL BUILD WHEN MOST COMPETITORS IN THE INDUSTRY FOR A LONG TIME AHEAD.
剔除 Prime Day 影响带来的四个百分点后，对于这一规模的业务而言，零售增长相当健康。当我们审视单位销量增长时，那非常具有吸引力。亚马逊正在构建的零售护城河——尽管电子商务仅占整个零售行业的 25%，但亚马逊如今已在大多数品类中实现了良好的渗透。亚马逊长期构建的护城河在于自动化。这是他们在未来很长一段时间内，相较于行业内大多数竞争对手所建立的优势所在。
ROMAINE: REALLY APPRECIATE YOU JOINING US, THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF INTERNET EQUITY RESEAR
ROMAINE：非常感谢您加入我们，您是互联网股权研究公司的管理总监
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力