纳斯达克100指数面临2026年第三次回调

Eric, is this is this just a continuation of what we saw yesterday, or is it something bigger? Hey, it could be something bigger. I mean, you never really know until you get to the point where, like, you can look back at these things. So if this is if this is the beginning of something we would point back to this week. And it's not just the chip stocks, the it's the it's the whole complex. So much of the eye trade has gotten hit this week.

Um, you know you can look at Amazon and Alphabet and what they've been saying about their capital expenditures. You can look at software makers. You can look at obviously the chip stocks. It's really the question is two things. It's can they keep spending. And if they don't keep spending what happens. And we don't really have a very good answer for that because the whole market is kind of predicated on this spending continuing.

When you look at the top of the leaderboard. As you know, Eric for this month in the S&P 500. So behind energy obviously the best group not just this month but this year. But staples health care utilities those defensive dividend paying corners of the market. And then you have the Nasdaq 100 on track for its biggest monthly underperformance against the equal weight S&P 500. So what do you think that tells us more about breadth in the market.

Well, it tells you that there's kind of a rotation away from well away from risk. But risk is weird because for the longest time, mega cap tech was not considered risky because they printed cash and, you know, they were great stocks and they just went up. So they were kind of almost a haven trade. What we've had undone over the last few months, excuse me, is the idea that these are Haven stocks because now they're they need to spend a ton their cash flow negative in a but many of them are.

And they have to raise equity. They have to raise debt to get to where they need to be. So people are rotating toward the safer parts of the market, say places like health care. Demand is not dependent on anything. Uh, same thing with staples. Um, you know, utilities where you get, uh, you get a dividend and and do you think that rotation will actually stick? Because in this four year bull run, we've seen it happen a few times, but that it ends up being temporary.

And then the eye trade comes back. So how long do you think this will potentially last. That's the whole question. Like the the that that's it. Because the and this is where I came in from the beginning. If we look back a month from now, two months from now and we're like, yeah, you know, this is bad. And now we're kind of paying the price for all these spending commitments that we can't afford. We'll look back at this and we'll we'll be like, this was the week we really first saw it kick in.

However, this could be another head fake, which we've seen a ton of. At which point this becomes a bizarre buying opportunity. I thought the whole tone changed on Monday when we saw some of the tropics books. Eric. What what what change? What shifted? Um, was it outside? Anthropic is part. Anthropic is part of it. But it's, uh, a lot of it is this negative free cash flow thing. I mean, you, when you're seeing, like, meta and you're seeing, uh, uh, a Google, uh, or alphabet, you know, even Microsoft, which is looking good, got hit as sort of a side swipe from these other stocks.

These are these are huge stocks. And if Amazon say, yesterday reports that it's it's uh, uh, e-commerce unit is not keeping up with the spending that's going out on the I side. That kind of unwinds the whole logic of that trade. So you're starting to just see a lot more attention to risk on the downside that, you know, was kind of hope held up by hope before.