英特尔财报不及预期股价大跌，亚马逊AWS增速符合预期

This is Bloomberg Businessweek daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business, finance and tech news. As it happens. The Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanback. We got to just kind of recap what we've been seeing, because right now, Amazon, uh, not as, uh, down as much as it was earlier, still down about 6.2% here in the aftermarket.

And, uh, we're taking a look again, some of the headlines when it comes to Amazon, uh, still sees a year cash CapEx, about $220 billion sees fourth quarter net sales, uh, 240 billion to 247 billion. Street estimate was for two 44.52 billion. And then again, some look at the third quarter backward AWS, of course, Amazon Web Services net sales x FX currency up 39%. The estimate was for a gain of up about 38%. But again, investors, um, not totally loving what they got from the, uh, not totally loving what they got from Intel, either shares of or Intel down more than 20% right now.

This after its revenue forecast, missed analysts estimates it was hurt by sputtering demand for PC processors and supply chain problems with its lucrative data center components. I want to bring in John Silvani, senior semiconductor analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. John, this stock was up 150% going into today's print, but still, uh, a 20% haircut is a big haircut no matter which way you look at it. What's your take on this print?

Yeah, I mean, look, the massive misses on the pork side is just, uh, pretty surprising. Um, we all knew that the PC market is not looking that strong, but the results that came in, uh, are, again, surprising. Um, at least from what we have seen so far, it looks to me that you know, the data center, which was a big, is looking strong, but they cannot get enough supply there to sell more injected into the data center. And the headwinds from the PC are large enough that whatever they are able to get more supply on the data center side and get a bid, it's not large enough to offset.

Uh, one more key important point here is that gross margin, uh, miss, uh, that's very substantial. We finally had until getting to sort of the mid 40s, after a few quarters of really good work. And so we are back down again with almost 600 plus basis points of a decline quarter over quarter. Uh, that's substantial. We think that's again coming from Intel trying to get more supply and push more on the data center side, which is where the future is.

But that comes at the cost of, you know, lower margins loading up the factories on the new nodes, which are again, a headwind to the margins, and the PC business, which is a better margin business not doing so well. So the mix of combinations between data center and pieces is not helping until. Yeah. Come on. You know, what's interesting to is, you know, is it a case of that that if they could get all the supply they needed in order to meet demand, we would be having a very different conversation today?

Or is it more than that because of what we're seeing on the PC side, when we if they were able to get more demand on the data center side, on the revenue line item, we would not see such a big deviation. It would still be able to offset, uh, the weak demand in PC, but I think we would still have seen some headwinds on gross margin. Remember, data center products are more the ship right now. It's an had been for gross margin because it's a total gross margin.

They you know they are loading it all up on the newer nodes which are much more expensive until you reach a certain point, but it starts being more profitable. So, uh, we would have seen a lesson of impact on the top line, but still an impact on the gross margins. You know, it's interesting. We had a conversation earlier with one of our guests here at Schwab Impact in Boston and this kind of concept of, you know, you kind of have to invest for the future so that if you look at a company like alphabet, which just got creamed today, in today's session, if you think about the market cap drop that that it endured, that this whole idea that you're investing in the future of alphabet.

Um, and if you believe in the course and the impact of AI and I do wonder about Intel, have they righted the ship, made the changes they need for an Intel of the future, and that investors need to be patient here? I think investors do need to be patient, which and they have been patient. Look, they are investing here for the future. Uh, investing to bring up capacity in the data center and focusing on the data center is the right choice, because that is the better, faster growing in market in the future.

And the North Star for Intel again remains that foundry business, which they've done a lot of progress on. Uh, but you look, you are in an environment where every single one of your peers is beating by billions of dollars. You know, they are guiding up their revenues multiple times in a year just for future years. Uh, folks are giving guidance more than two years out when it comes to semi peer. So there's also that peer pressure.

Right. So for investors, when they are looking at other semi companies which are giving such robust results both in near-term and outward guidance is just difficult to stay patient when you see such hiccups along the way. All right. So top question that you think has to be asked on this call with analysts and investors from the Intel C-suite. I think two questions. Right. When do we really expect sort of the gross margin trajectory to really find a floor?

Uh, we have seen this repeat couple of times where we see positive progress on gross margin, and suddenly we hit a quarter where it's sort of, you know, take one step forward and two steps back. And I think the second question remains like, how is the progress going on the foundry side there? We have seen a lot of announcements as positive announcements, uh, around packaging and their packaging technologies really differentiated.

We really want to start seeing, uh, significant material revenues come out of that business. Is there any other semiconductor name that we should be watching as a result of what we're seeing from Intel, just real quickly? Yeah. Next week AMD again, AMD's also exposed to the similar PC hat markets, but we don't think they will do. They will do much worse because of their exposure and share gains. But that's something we'll be watching carefully.

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek daily. Coming up after this. Break. I want to bring in on Iraq, Ryan, a senior tech analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. He joined us from our Chicago bureau. On Iraq, we just spoke to John about Intel. Shares of Intel down. Wow. You know, 20% at this point. Should the Amazon are down lower in the after hours right now by 6.7%. Your takeaways from this print? Yeah. I mean, when you look at cloud results from both Google and Microsoft, we saw a big beat on the growth rate.

I think in the case of Amazon. They just went ahead and met the expectations at 39%. So basically you know that that is probably what's causing the shares to go down. But I'd also point out to one particular thing that they said they had expecting AWS sales to be above 40% into 27 and 28. I think that's also very, very strong numbers, uh, given where we are in the cycle. So I think in my view, people are maybe disappointed that they didn't beat us by a big number.

And, uh, but from our side, I think we really like those 40% numbers. Yeah, it's interesting too. Amazon in total sees revenue growth rates of over 40% in 2027 and 2020, a free cash flow fall into an outflow of 42.4 billion. Um, wow. An out. Repeat that and cash flow fell to an outflow of 42.4 billion for 12 months, I guess for trailing 12 months. Yeah. Wow. So I mean, what is so. Oh my God. And how do we make sense about the spend you need to spend to be in it, right.

Um, these guys