Anthropic提交S-1：手握1310亿美元，承诺算力支出超8000亿

The full text is finally here, so we are giving it the full RTFB of model card treatment.

First, a recap of the state of Anthropic finances, then a close reading of the relevant parts of the S-1. A lot of it is technical and uninteresting, often pro forma, and gets skipped. A lot of it gets repeated many times.

A lot of this is also Anthropic ‘playing the hits’ we have heard many times, now to the investor circuit. Get your drinks ready for when we have to maximize the upside and minimize the downside.

This presentation of S-1 data has some cool Claude-created charts if that’s your jam.

Here are my top 10 takeaways from the S-1, for those already familiar with Anthropic.

• Existential risk is mentioned briefly only in the passive voice, and alignment issues are mostly treated as prosaic. They want to claim Big Mission but also sound as much as possible like a normal company. They are downplaying their willingness to pay real costs for safety, and downplaying the danger quite a lot.
• ‘Pacing the Frontier’ is not something they will do on their own. They’ll do the embedded evaluators, but the rest needs to be across the industry or it’s no good.
• The core business plan is ‘closing the loop’ aka recursive self-improvement, and they claim that their business will lose to its rivals if they do not achieve this.
• The founders will largely run Anthropic indefinitely via their Class F share, and with the employees they can overrule the Long Term Benefit Trust (LTBT).
• The LTBT will run Anthropic once enough founders leave, but it continues to look like a good governance body, not an AI safety body.
• Anthropic’s huge growth slowed in Q3, I believe likely picking up again in Q4.
• Anthropic has spent very little money. They raised $141b and have $131b on hand.
• Anthropic is profitable. H1 cash flow was +$3.9b. The $80b ‘loss’ was the stock going up forcing revaluing of notes, but those notes are already de facto converted.
• Anthropic compute commitments are roughly $800b. They will need more.
• S-1s are mostly repetitious boilerplate ripe for Claudeslop no one will read, but the parts that count still count and one needs to pay attention.

Table of Contents

• Show Me the Money.
• Anthropic Has The Money.
• Shares of Many Classes.
• Who Governs Anthropic?
• The Cap Table.
• Realize the Benefits While Navigating and Preventing the Risks.
• Just Think of the Potential.
• People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone (1).
• Anthropic Bets Big on AI.
• Anthropic Does Not Fully Maximize Profits.
• Everything Is Awesome.
• How Much Is AI Worth?
• How Much Would You Pay?
• Minimize Those Risks.
• Hopefully Introducing the World’s Most Powerful Model.
• Might Not Compute.
• Supply Chain Risk (1).
• Anthropic Is Nothing Without Its People.
• Shitloads of Money.
• Someone Has To Buy The Product.
• Did You Know There Are Other Frontier Labs?
• Why They Hate Us.
• People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone (2).
• Claude Seems Pretty Misaligned to Anthropic.
• Someone Might Sue or Regulate Anthropic.
• Supply Chain Risk (2).
• We’re Too Safety.
• Claude Core.
• We’ve Never Actually Made Money.
• You Are Buying Stock In a Company.
• There Will Be No Dividends.
• What Are We Even Doing?
• The Financial Model.
• The Business of Intelligence and Maybe Killing Everyone.
• Don’t Give a Damn About My Regulation.

Show Me the Money

Anthropic’s 3Q revenue number of $16.8 billion (with adjusted operating margin of 11%, via Bloomberg) was not good growth, ‘only’ 45% over three months. Anthropic struggled in Q3 relative to OpenAI and others. Based on prediction markets Anthropic was down ‘only’ ~4% on the news, but that was because we already knew that Anthropic went through a rough patch in terms of relative practical model quality. Fable has data retention issues that Anthropic discusses on p49 of the S-1, people disliked Opus 4.7, 4.8 and 5 and Astra was impressive. There are also claims that seasonality hurts consumption in Q3.

There are those who claim that this means Anthropic is deliberately hiding its Q3 results in the S-1. Realistically, no, full statements on Q3 on a 26 day turnaround is not something Anthropic was equipped to do to the standards of an S-1. Anthropic is not hiding the results in any case, and you can in various ways back them out, and also expect the Q3 results to get included in the next amendment along with the price.

Or quarterly:

It is frustrating trying to account for $72 billion in the ‘change in fair value of’ various liabilities. Is that a real expense? In some senses yes, in others no. It will never not be weird to say ‘your stock value went up so you lost a ton of money.’ I mean, I guess? If you structure in terms of notes instead of stock you get the same basic result but also you announce you ‘lost’ $72 billion. Whoops, real shame, oh no.

They go into the details of the convertible notes on page 163. At this point, one should assume the notes have already been converted, and calculate the float accordingly, rather than thinking of this as further ‘losses.’

They list them outright later on in case you want to know who they are.

In terms of forward expectations things look very good.

For the purposes that matter most, I consider Anthropic profitable, as per its Q2 GAAP operating income, and its adjusted net income and operating cash flow.

They make their employees count.

Each Anthropic employee supports over $6.6 million in trailing 12-month revenue as of September 30, 2026.​

The headcount is about 5,300 (p228) as of that time, with $35 billion in trailing 12-month revenue, in contrast to the $16.8 billion made over three months.

Given Opus 5.5, I expect Anthropic to post an impressive Q4 and get its mojo back, as it again at least for now has the clearly best offering, and will at least until we see 6.2 Astra and Sol. Wonder and Argon are still in their evaluation periods, but they’re almost certainly no match for Opus 5.5 or we would hear about it very loudly.

Charles: I had bet against their ARR run-rate 10xing in 2026,

I thought that was dead money, now I think there’s maybe a 30% chance I win.

WSJ got an early look at Anthropic’s new draft prospectus, which we have all now seen.

Anissa Gardizy (WSJ): The artificial intelligence giant said in the draft prospectus it recorded a net loss of more than $80 billion in the first half of this year, a total that largely reflects an accounting adjustment related to financing agreements.

That compares to a net loss of $13 billion during the same period a year earlier.

… The vast majority of that loss, $72 billion, resulted from accounting charges tied to changes in the value of convertible notes and other instruments the company issued to raise funding.

… Anthropic laid out a sprawling list of risk factors, including uncertainty over how it will prevent its AI models from causing harm and protect itself from those liabilities, from sophisticated cyberattacks to possible blackmail by uncontrolled models.

… Anthropic spent more on computing capacity in the first half of this year than it did in all of 2025, when it spent $7.3 billion and generated $4.6 billion in revenue.

… The company is on the hook to pay around $450 billion in cloud computing agreements over the next seven to ten years. The bulk of these deals are noncancelable.

Anthropic plans to spend $111 billion on Google cloud computing contracts, $110 billion with Amazon Web Services, and $31 billion on Microsoft, “regardless of actual usage.” The firm also agreed to spend up to $86 billion renting Nvidia chips from smaller AI cloud providers Nscale and Lambda through 2033 and 2034, respectively, in addition to other cloud deals.