巴西大选Lula胜选，市场承压预期波动
Lula Wins Record Fourth Term in Brazil in Surprise Comeback
重大地缘政治事件落地，直接冲击巴西资产定价与宏观预期，建议关注相关ETF及汇率波动风险。
Traders, meanwhile, are bracing for steep losses across Brazilian markets after largely pricing in a Bolsonaro win. Futures of the Brazilian real are under pressure along with the Japan traded Brazil ETF. For more, let's bring in our Brazil country chief Filipe Pacheco in Sao Paulo. Filipe, Lula has won an extraordinarily tight race, but Flavio Bolsonoro already calling for the result to be overturned. Hi, Haslinda. It's great to talk to you, and you are right.
与此同时，交易员们正为巴西市场可能出现的大幅亏损做准备，此前市场已基本将博索纳罗获胜计入定价。巴西雷亚尔期货与在日本交易的巴西ETF均面临压力。更多详情，让我们连线驻圣保罗的巴西首席记者费利佩·帕切科（Filipe Pacheco）。费利佩，卢拉赢得了一场异常激烈的选举，但弗拉维奥·博索纳罗已呼吁推翻结果。你好，Haslinda。很高兴与你交谈，你说得对。
It's been one of those days here in Brazil, Haslinda. Well, this... It's still Sunday here, let's say. I think it's still fair to say that. And what we've seen today, it's very hard to describe in a simple and in an easy way for someone who is not actually following closely this election or who had no idea of who are these two candidates. President Lula, this is the fourth time that he's elected president. He was behind all polls that were showing Flavio Bostenado ahead in the second, round.
在巴西这里，这是典型的一天，Haslinda。嗯，这……这里还是星期天，这么说吧。我认为这样说是公平的。我们今天所看到的情况，对于没有密切关注这场选举或对这两位候选人一无所知的人来说，很难用简单易懂的方式描述。总统卢拉是第四次当选总统。在所有显示弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在第二轮领先的民调中，他都处于落后地位。
He came up as a surprise after the first round, and and, well, we've seen during the day a few unexpected events as Brazilians, went to polls. We had both campaigns asking for the voting hours to be extended after we saw some issues regarding the transportations of voters, public transport in some major, cities in Brazil such as Sao Paulo and Salvador in the state of Bahia, a very strong, voting state for Lula. And also from the Flavio Bolsonaro campaign, they asked for the extension of, voting hours because there were weather, issues in several parts of Brazil.
他在第一轮后作为黑马出现，而且，嗯，我们在当天看到了一些意外事件，因为巴西人前往投票站。在看到一些关于选民公共交通的问题后，双方竞选团队都要求延长投票时间，这些问题发生在巴西的一些主要城市，如圣保罗和巴伊亚州的萨尔瓦多，后者是支持卢拉的强劲票仓。此外，弗拉维奥·博索纳罗的竞选团队也要求延长投票时间，因为巴西部分地区出现了天气问题。
After those claims were filed within, the supreme court and the electoral court here, there was an extension of two hours. So voting ended at 7PM here in Brazil. After voting was over, counting started. Everything went as expected. And, well, we had a result that was actually much better from Lula than any of the scenarios could ever predict. The difference in votes and number of votes was of around 4,400,000, voters.
在向最高法院和这里的选举法院提出这些申诉后，投票时间延长了两小时。因此，巴西的投票于晚上7点结束。投票结束后，开始计票。一切按计划进行。嗯，我们得到的结果实际上比任何预测情景都要好得多。票数差异约为440万张选票。
That's almost twice the number of advantage that Bolsonaro himself had over Lula in the first round. The senator... The opposition senator said that he would not recognize this, that he could not recognize the result, but we had the president of the electoral court, the president of the senate, and the president of the lower house also saying that they do recognize that everything was happening as expected. So it will be very hard for him to actually go ahead, with that claim.
这几乎是博索纳罗本人在第一轮领先卢拉的票数优势的两倍。参议员……反对党参议员表示他不会承认这一点，他无法承认这一结果，但我们看到了选举法院院长、参议院院长和众议院院长也表示他们承认一切都在按预期进行。因此，他要想继续推进这一主张将非常困难。
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