美债收益率见顶回落，法国债务危机与AI支出担忧加剧市场避险情绪
AI Spending Woes, Investors Seek Havens, France Debt Crisis
宏观资金流向发生结构性变化，美债重新成为避险资产，同时叠加法国主权债务风险与AI资本开支担忧，直接影响债券交易策略与跨资产配置逻辑。
SCARLET: FROM NEW YORK CITY FOR OUR VIEWERS WORLDWIDE, I AM SCARLET FU. "BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD" STARTS RIGHT NOW. COMING UP, STOCKS FALL AND OIL PRICES JUMP, RESULTING IN FLIGHT TO SAFETY OF U.S. BONDS. THIS AS PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FRANCE. THAT COUNTRY'S 10-YEAR YIELD REACHING A 24-YEAR HIGH HEAD OF ANOTHER WEEKEND OF PLAN PROTESTS. PLANS TO WRAP UP --RAMP OF AI SPENDING REIGNITING FEARS OF OVERSUPPLY OF TECH DEBT.
斯卡莱特：来自纽约市，为我们全球观众报道，我是斯卡莱特·傅。《彭博实际收益率》现在开始。接下来，股市下跌，油价飙升，引发资金流向美国国债避险。随着法国压力持续累积，该国10年期收益率达到24年高点，正值又一轮计划抗议活动周末前夕。旨在结束——人工智能支出激增重新引发对科技债务供过于求的担忧。
WE BEGIN WITH THE BIG ISSUE, U.S. TREASURIES REGAINING THEIR STATUS.
我们从重大问题开始，美国国债重拾其地位。
YOU ARE LOOKING AT AN ECONOMY THAT CONTINUES TO BE
你看到的是一个经济体，它继续处于
SO FAR SO GOOD, AT LEAST IN MARKET-BASED INFLATION EXPECTATIONS.
到目前为止还不错，至少在基于市场的通胀预期方面。
RESPONDING TO INFLATIONARY STOCKS WHILE THE GROWTH HAS BEEN SOLID.
应对通胀的股票，而增长一直稳健。
WHEN THE BOND MARKET SPEAKS, THE REST OF THE MARKET SHOULD PAY ATTENTION. WHEN THINGS START TO CRACK, INVESTORS WILL COME BACK TO THE SAFETY OF TREASURIES. GUESS WHAT, YIELDS LOOK VERY ATTRACTIVE.
当债券市场发声时，其他市场应予以关注。当事情开始出现裂痕时，投资者将回归国债的安全地带。猜猜看，收益率看起来非常有吸引力。
THAT MUFALO WERE IN YIELDS IS NOT--MOVE LOWER IN YIELDS IS NOT A BAD THING FOR THE ECONOMY.
穆法洛（MUFALO）收益率中的下降——收益率走低对经济来说并非坏事。
YOU NEED TO BE LONGER DURATION.
你需要更长的久期。
YOU ARE SEEING MORE PRESSURE ON THE NEAR END OF THE CURVE.
你在曲线前端看到更多压力。
MARKETS HAVE FOUND IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO PRICE THE FED.
市场对美联储定价变得更加困难。
I DON'T THINK THE FED IS GOING TO BE FRONT AND CENTER.
我认为美联储不会处于前台和中心位置。
WE EXPECT THEM TO SKIP IN OCTOBER.
我们预计他们将在十月跳过。
THE FED IS CLEAR TO STAY ON HOLD.
美联储显然将继续按兵不动。
IT IS LIKELY THEY WILL TIGHTEN POLICY FURTHER, ONE TO TWO SEEMS REASONABLE. SCARLET: FOR THE TIME BEING, TREASURY YIELDS MAY HAVE PEAKED . THERE IS A SHARP MOVE HIGHER IN SEPTEMBER, REFLECTING THE SELLOFF BECAUSE HIGHER YIELDS ARE THE RESULT OF LOWER PRICES. SINCE REACHING 5.36% IN OCTOBER, YIELDS ARE SITTING AT 5%. THERE IS THE PLATEAUING WE ARE SEEING. LOOKING OVER A LONGER TIME PERIOD, YIELDS ARE HOVERING AT MONTHLY DECADE HIGHS. --MULTI-DECADE HIGHS, AND MUST EXPECT RATES TO STAY ELEVATED.
他们可能会进一步收紧政策，一到两次似乎是合理的。斯卡莱特：目前，国债收益率可能已经见顶。九月出现大幅走高，反映出抛售行为，因为高收益率是低价格的结果。自十月达到5.36%以来，收益率维持在5%。我们看到的是 plateauing（平台期）。从更长时间段来看，收益率徘徊在多年高位——数十年高位，必须预期利率将保持高位。
A BIG REASON FOR THAT IS CONCERN OVER THE U.S.'S GROWING DEBT. HERE IS WHAT THE CEO OF CITADEL, KEN GRIFFIN, TOLD BLOOMBERG THIS WEEK. KEN: WE DID NOT HAVE THE FISCAL SPACE TO RENEW THE TAX CUTS, IN MY OPINION, A YEAR AND CHANGE AGO. WITH THE FEDERAL DEFICIT OF $40 TRILLION, THE QUESTION OF COMING OUT IS FRONT AND CENTER AGAIN. WHY ARE MORTGAGES SO EXPENSIVE? WHY IS THE 30-YEAR YIELD SO HIGH? IT IS MULTIFACTORIAL. INFLATION HAS BEEN UNCHECKED.
一个主要原因是担心美国不断增长的债务。以下是 Citadel 首席执行官肯·格里芬本周告诉彭博的内容。肯：我认为，一年多以前，我们没有财政空间来延续减税措施。面对40万亿美元的联邦赤字，出路问题再次成为焦点。为什么抵押贷款如此昂贵？为什么30年期收益率如此之高？这是多因素的。通胀一直未受遏制。
BUT OUR FISCAL HOUSE IS CLEARLY NOT IN ORDER. SCARLET: BLOOMBERG'S INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY CORRESPONDENT MICHAEL MCKEE JOINS US WITH CHART IN HAND. THERE WASN'T A WHOLE LOT OF ECONOMIC IT INVESTORS CAN KEY OFF THIS WEEK. THE FED IS IN A COMMUNICATIONS BLACKOUT. WE ARE SEEING TREASURIES PLAY A HAVEN ROLE IN A WAY THAT THEY HAVE NOT IN SEPTEMBER. MICHAEL: IT IS GOING TO CHANGE NEXT WEEK AND IT IS UNLIKELY THEY ARE GOING TO RAISE RATES.
但我们的财政状况显然并不有序。斯嘉丽：彭博社国际经济与政策记者迈克尔·麦基带着图表加入我们。本周投资者可依据的经济数据并不多。美联储处于沟通静默期。我们看到国债正以不同于九月份的方式发挥避险作用。迈克尔：情况下周将会改变，他们不太可能加息。
PRETTY MUCH TOLD THE MARKET WE ARE NOT GOING TO AND HE WOULD NOT BE AN EASY TASK FOR KEVIN WARSH TO COME OUT AFTERWARDS AND EXPLAIN WHY THEY CROSSED THE MARKETS UP. WHAT WE WILL GET THE DAY AFTER THE FED MEETING IS THE PCE NUMBERS FOR SEPTEMBER, AND THOSE WILL BE POINTING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. SINCE THEY TOLD US THEY WON'T BE RAISING RATES, THEY WANT REACT TO IT YET. MARKETS COULD ONCE THEY THINK ABOUT THE DECEMBER FED MEETING.
几乎已经告诉市场我们不会加息，凯文·沃什随后出来解释为何他们看错了市场将是一项艰巨的任务。美联储会议后一天我们将获得九月份的PCE数据，这些数据将指向错误的方向。既然他们告诉我们不会加息，他们想要对此做出反应。市场可能会在考虑十二月的美联储会议时有所动作。
THE PCE NEXT, THE FED'S MEASURE THAT THEY TIE THE 2% TARGET TO, IS GOING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. KEVIN WARSH SAYS HE WATCHES TRENDS IN INFLATION. ONE OF THE REASONS PEOPLE SAY THEY DID NOT HAVE TO RAISE RATES THIS MONTH IS BECAUSE THE TRENDS WERE IMPROVING, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU TAKE THE THREE-MONTH AND SIX-MONTH AVERAGES INTO ACCOUNT. NOW THAT WE HAVE CPI AND PPI FOR SEPTEMBER, WE KNOW WHAT PCE IS GOING TO BE COMMANDOS SIX MONTHS ARE NOT GOING TO BE GOOD NEWS.
接下来是PCE，这是美联储将其与2%目标挂钩的指标，正朝着错误的方向发展。凯文·沃什表示他关注通胀趋势。人们说本月无需加息的原因之一是趋势正在改善，特别是当你考虑到三个月和六个月的平均值时。现在我们有了九月份的CPI和PPI数据，我们知道PCE的情况如何。六个月的数据不会是好消息。
THE PCE CORE DID NOT CHANGE BETWEEN AUGUST AND JULY. IT WAS AT 3%. BUT 3.1% NOW IS THE FORECAST FOR PCE FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. LOOK AT THE YELLOW AND BLUE LINES REPRESENTING THE THREE- AND SIX-MONTH TRENDS. THEY WERE 2% FOR THE THREE-MONTH AND 2.7 FOR THE SIX-MONTH IN THE MONTH OF AUGUST. FOR SEPTEMBER THEY WILL RISE TO 2.9. YOU GOT THE TRENDS ALL OF A SUDDEN TURNING AROUND AND GOING THE WRONG WAY, WHICH TELLS YOU THE FED PROBABLY IS GOING TO HAVE MORE WORK TO DO, OR AT LEAST THEY WILL FEEL THAT WAY, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL GET SOME DISSENTS AT THIS MEETING EVEN IF THEY DON'T RAISE RATES.
核心PCE在七月和八月之间没有变化，保持在3%。但9月PCE的预测值为3.1%。看看代表三个月和六个月趋势的黄线和蓝线。八月份三个月为2%，六个月为2.7%。九月它们将上升至2.9%。趋势突然掉头向错误方向发展，这表明美联储可能还有更多工作要做，或者至少他们会这么认为，这就是为什么即使不加息，这次会议上也会出现一些反对意见。
BETH HAMMACK IS THAT THEY NEED TO BE RAISING RATES RIGHT NOW BECAUSE THEY'RE LOOKING AT CHARTS LIKE THIS. SCARLET: CREATING SOME TENSION IN THE FOMC AT THE NEXT MEETING. MIKE, THANK YOU SO MUCH. MICHAEL MCKEE IS A BLOOMBERG'S ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT. HE WILL JOIN US LATER ON IN THE PROGRAM. I WANT TO GET TO OUR NEXT GUEST, JEFFREY SHERMAN OF DOUBLELINE CAPITAL. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE FED AND TIGHTENING. LOOK AT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN FRANCE WITH THE STRESS THERE, THE WEAKNESS IN STOCKS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OF LATE, COMPANIES LIKE COREWEAVE STRUGGLING WITH HIGH BORROWING COSTS.
贝丝·哈马克认为，美联储现在就需要加息，因为他们正在查看这样的图表。斯卡莱特：在下次会议上，联邦公开市场委员会内部正酝酿紧张局势。迈克，非常感谢你。迈克尔·麦基是彭博社的经济记者，他将在稍后加入我们的节目。我想请出下一位嘉宾，Doubleline Capital的杰弗里·谢尔曼。我们正在讨论美联储和紧缩政策。看看法国那边正在发生什么，那里的压力，以及我们近期看到的股市疲软，像CoreWeave这样的公司正挣扎于高昂的借贷成本之下。
ARE WE REACHING A POINT WHERE SOMETHING IS GOING TO BREAK IN THE TIGHTENING FROM THE FED AND CENTRAL BANKS IS STARTING TO FIGHT?-- BITE?
我们是否正达到一个临界点，即美联储和央行的紧缩措施将导致某些环节断裂？——还是咬合？
I'M NOT SURE I WOULD QUANTIFY IT AS BEING THE TIGHTENING COSTS. AS MIKE POINTED OUT, THE FED SHOULD BE TIGHTER THAN THEY ARE TODAY. YOU ARE SEEING A SET UP IN TREASURIES AND THE 10-YEAR AND 30-YEAR, WE HAD OVERSOLD LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE TREASURY CURVE. WHAT YOU ARE SEEING IS REPRICING OF THAT, RETRACEMENT BECAUSE IT WAS OVERSOLD CONDITIONS. ALSO, YOU HAVE SEEN CHANGE IN THE NARRATIVE AROUND THE AI TRADE AND THE DATA CENTERS AND THE LIKE.
我不确定我会将其量化为紧缩成本。正如迈克所指出的，美联储的政策应比今天更紧缩。你在国债市场上看到了一种格局，特别是10年期和30年期国债，我们在大多数国债收益率曲线上都出现了超卖水平。你所看到的是这些水平的重新定价，因为之前是超卖状况，所以出现了回调。此外，你也看到了围绕人工智能交易和数据中心等话题叙事的转变。
WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT IN THE BIG PICTURE, HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN FUNDAMENTALS. THERE IS NEW QUESTION MARKS ABOUT THE NARRATIVE. IT IS GOOD TO SEE THAT TREASURIES ARE GETTING THIS FLIGHT TO QUALITY BID, WHICH HAS NOT BEEN HERE FOR A COUPLE OF MONTHS. SOME OF IT COULD BE POTENTIALLY, AS YOU LET OFF WITH, WHAT IS GOING ON IN FRANCE COULD TODAY WITH A RALLY IN TREASURIES AND THE SELLOFF, THE 10-YEAR FRENCH BONDS YIELDED MORE THAN U.S.
从大局来看，基本面并没有太大变化。只是叙事中出现了一些新的问号。很高兴看到国债获得了这种避险买盘，这在几个月前是不存在的。其中一部分可能正如你所提到的那样，法国发生的事情可能会在今天引发国债的反弹以及抛售，10年期法国债券的收益率超过了美国……
TREASURIES. POTENTIALLY WE ARE SEEING SOME OF THAT BEING A CATALYST HERE. STARTING TO SAY, HEY, EVEN THOUGH PEOPLE WANT DOMESTIC BONDS AS AN INTERNATIONAL EUROPEAN INVESTOR, MAY BE POTENTIALLY THE U.S. IS AN ATTRACTIVE PLACE TO INVEST BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE THE CIVIL UNREST AT THIS POINT. SCARLET: GOING TO THE IDEA OF TREASURIES AS A SAFETY PLAY FOLLOWING A LONG PERIOD WHERE THAT RELATIONSHIP SEEMED TO HAVE COLLAPSED, DOES THE FLIGHT TO SAFETY OVERWHELM U.S.
国债。也许我们正看到其中一些因素成为这里的催化剂。开始有人说，嘿，即使作为国际欧洲投资者人们想要本国债券，但美国可能是一个有吸引力的投资地点，因为我们目前没有内乱。斯卡莱特：回到国债作为避险资产的想法，在经历了很长一段时间这种关系似乎已经崩溃之后，避险情绪是否会压倒美国……
FISCAL CONCERNS? JEFF: IT DOES FROM A TRADING STANDPOINT BECAUSE MY ENTIRE CAREER HAVE HAD FISCAL CONCERNS. IT WILL BE AN ISSUE ONE DAY. I HEARD THE COMMENTS FROM KEN GRIFFIN, WE AGREE WITH THAT AT DOUBLELINE. WE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERWEIGHT IN MOST PORTFOLIOS IF NOT SURE THE BACK END OF THE CURVE BECAUSE ULTIMATELY THE PRESSURES WILL MATERIALIZE. WE HAVE THIS GLOBAL COMPETITION FOR MONEY FLOW RIGHT NOW. AT THE END OF IT, WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING AT IS A MARKET THAT IS NOT THE STOCK-BOND RELATIONSHIP.
财政担忧？杰夫：从交易角度来看确实如此，因为我的整个职业生涯都伴随着财政方面的考量。这终将成为一个问题。我听到了肯·格里芬的评论，我们在双线性基金（DoubleLine）对此表示赞同。如果不确定收益率曲线后端的走向，我们在大多数投资组合中仍然显著低配，因为最终压力将会显现。目前我们正面临全球资金流动的激烈竞争。归根结底，你面对的是一个并非基于股债关系的市场。
IT IS A MARKET SAYING, OK, ON THAT STANDALONE BASIS, ARE TREASURIES ATTRACTIVE? EVEN WITH THE PRESSURES ON INFLATION, WE THINK THE FED DOES NEED TO HIKE. THEY PROBABLY WON'T BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO CATCH THE MARKET OFFSIDES. THE MARKETS AREN'T PRICE FOR THESE HIKES OVER THE NEXT THREE TO SIX MONTHS. THE FED NEEDS TO DO CATCH UP THERE, AND BOND INVESTORS ARE SAYING BE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN PRICED IN, THESE HIKES, AND IT OFFERS RELATIVE VALUE.
这是一个这样的市场：就其独立基础而言，国债是否具有吸引力？尽管通胀面临压力，我们认为美联储确实需要加息。但他们可能不会这么做，因为他们不想让市场措手不及。市场并未对未来三到六个月的加息进行定价。美联储需要在此方面迎头赶上，而债券投资者则认为，这些加息措施已经被定价，并且提供了相对价值。
SCARLET: SOME VALUE AND THE BELLY AND THE LONGER END OF THE CURVE. WE HAVE AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL CATALYST THE TREASURY REFUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT SOON. DO YOU EXPECT SCOTT BESSENT TO REDUCE ISSUANCE OF LONGER-DATA TREASURIES? IF SO, HOW MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE COULD THAT MAKE HER LONG-TERM YIELDS? JEFF: I THINK HE WANTS TO DO THAT. THUS FAR, WITH THE INTERVENTIONIST POLICIES THEY'VE ANNOUNCED, THEY HAVE BEEN UNDERWHELMING TO THE OVERALL MARKET.
斯嘉丽：一些价值以及曲线的中部和较长端。作为另一个潜在催化剂，财政部即将公布再融资公告。你预期斯科特·贝森特会减少长期国债的发行吗？如果是，这对长期收益率会产生多大影响？杰夫：我认为他想这么做。迄今为止，他们宣布的干预性政策对整体市场的影响令人失望。
I THINK IT PATH -- HE HAS BEEN SETTING THIS UP FOR A WHILE TO WANT TO ISSUE LESS ON THE BACK END AND MORE ON THE FRONT END. THIS BUYBACK PROGRAM, TOO, YOU ARE RETIRING A LOT OF LOW-COUPON ASSETS. YOU ARE MAKING A BET, AS THE TREASURY SECRETARY SAILING, THAT YIELDS ARE GOING TO COME DOWN BECAUSE OF FED POLICY. IT DOES NOT HAVE A MEANINGFUL I
我认为他的路径——他一直在为此做准备，希望减少后端发行并增加前端发行。这项回购计划也在注销大量低息资产。正如财政部长耶伦所言，这是一场赌注，即由于美联储的政策，收益率将会下降。它并没有产生有意义的
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更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力