SpaceX三季度财报超预期，马斯克提议与特斯拉合并
Stocks Rebound on Strong SpaceX Results; AI Bubble Dispute; Tech Earnings on Deck
SpaceX财报超预期及潜在的巨额合并计划是近期美股核心焦点，直接影响Tesla估值逻辑与AI板块资金流向，建议密切关注特别委员会进展及相关个股波动。
VONNIE: GOOD MORNING, I'M VONNIE QUINN WITH YOUR "BLOOMBERG BRIEF." EQUITIES BOUNCING FOLLOWING STRONG QUARTERLIES FROM SPACEX. ELON MUSK LOOKING AT WHAT COULD BE A HUGE MERGER WITH TESLA. AI DISPUTE. KEN GRIFFIN WARNS INVESTORS ARE "ALMOST CERTAINLY IN A BUBBLE" NAI. DEUTSCHE BANK'S SAVINGS SAYS HE DOESN'T SEE ONE. AND MORE EARNINGS ON DECK WITH TESLA, META, IBM AND TEXAS INSTRUMENTS. LET'S GET A CHECK ON MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD AFTER OUR FIRST GROUP OF TECH EARNINGS.
冯妮：早上好，我是冯妮·奎因，为您带来《彭博简报》。随着SpaceX交出强劲季报，股市反弹。埃隆·马斯克正在考虑与特斯拉进行一笔可能规模巨大的合并。AI争端。肯·格里芬警告投资者“几乎肯定处于泡沫中”，而德意志银行的储蓄部门表示他并未看到泡沫。接下来还有特斯拉、Meta、IBM和德州仪器的财报待公布。在我们报道完第一波科技股财报后，让我们看看全球市场的表现。
THEY ARE FINALLY SEEING ASIAN STOCKS REBOUNDING AFTER TWO DAYS OF LOSSES SUPPORTED BY THE STRONG EARNINGS FROM U.S. TECH FIRMS INCLUDING SPACEX, SO YOU CAN SEE THAT TECH HEAVY GAUGES IN OUR REGION WITH SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPI INDEX MY MORE THAN 3%. WE ALSO SAW INDONESIAN STOCKS REVERSING LOSSES OF AS MUCH AS AROUND 2% AFTER THE CENTRAL BANK CAP RATES STEADY. STILL FRONT AND CENTER ARE THE DATA CENTER STOCKS IN ASIA. WE HAVE SOUTH KOREA'S UP BY AROUND 30% TODAY, REVERSING PRE-MUCH ALL OF THE LOSSES YESTERDAY, SUPPORTED BY OVER A POSITIVE SENTIMENT IN THE TECH SPACE.
亚洲股市在经历两天的下跌后终于出现反弹，这得益于包括SpaceX在内的美国科技公司强劲的财报表现。因此，您可以看到我们该地区以科技股为主的指数有所上涨，韩国KOSPI指数涨幅超过3%。我们也看到印尼股市逆转了此前高达约2%的跌幅，这得益于央行稳定利率。目前焦点仍集中在亚洲的数据中心股票上。韩国相关股票今天上涨约30%，逆转了昨天的大部分跌幅，这得益于科技领域积极的情绪。
HOWEVER, THE OUTLIER IS THE AUSTRALIAN DATA CENTER TO HELP BY MORE THAN 40% AFTER THE COMPANY CUT ITS EARNINGS OUTLOOK AMID A SUPPLY SHORTAGE AND POWER SUPPLY DELAY AMID THE PUBLIC BACKLASH AS WELL, SO WE WILL BE WATCHING OUT ON THE EARNINGS FROM META LATER TODAY. VONNIE: MASSIVE VOLATILITY, THOSE ARE SOME STARK MOVES. NOW LET'S GET TO LONDON FOR A LOOK AT EUROPE WITH JUSTINA LEE. JUSTINA: WE ARE SEEING SLIGHT GAINS IN THE STOXX 600 TODAY AS INVESTORS DIGEST A FLURRY OF EARNINGS BUT ALSO SLIGHTLY HIGHER OIL TODAY.
然而，澳大利亚数据中心股票是个例外，尽管该公司在供应短缺和电力供应延迟的背景下下调了盈利前景，加之公众的反对情绪，该股票反而上涨了40%以上。因此，我们将密切关注Meta今天的财报。冯妮：巨大的波动性，这些走势相当剧烈。现在让我们转到伦敦，由贾斯汀娜·李为您关注欧洲市场。贾斯汀娜：我们看到斯托克600指数（STOXX 600）今天略有上涨，因为投资者正在消化一系列财报，同时今日油价也略有上升。
OF COURSE, STILL GEOPOLITICAL HEADLINES, AND WHAT IS INTERESTING HERE IS THAT WE OVER THE SEEING A DIVERGENT IN THE BOND MARKET TODAY. THE U.K. BOND YIELD IS BASICALLY FLAT EVEN THAT WE DID SEE CPI CLIMBED TO THE HIGHEST IN 11 MONTHS BUT IT SEEMED LIKE INVESTORS HAVE BASICALLY PRICED IN A RATE HIKE FOR THE BOE NEXT MONTH. BUT YOU CAN SEE HERE AT THE SAME TIME, REAL DROP IN THE VOLUME FOR ITALY. THERE IS REALLY A DIVERGENCE BETWEEN SOME OF THOSE PERIPHERAL BONDS AND ALSO GERMAN BONDS.
当然，地缘政治头条新闻依然存在，有趣的是，我们今天看到债券市场出现了分化。英国国债收益率基本持平，尽管我们看到消费者价格指数（CPI）攀升至11个月来的最高水平，但似乎投资者已经将英国央行（BOE）下个月的加息预期计入价格。但您也可以看到，意大利的债券交易量大幅下降。一些边缘国家债券与德国国债之间确实存在分化。
AND IF WE FLIP THE BOARD HERE, OF COURSE IT ALL COMES BACK TO FRANCE. WE CAN STILL SEE TODAY EVEN WITH LESS FOCUS ON PROTESTS IN FRANCE, WE CAN STILL SEE THE SPREAD BETWEEN FRENCH AND GERMAN BOND YIELDS STILL WIDENING TO THE HIGHEST SINCE ABOUT 2010, AND WE CAN STILL SEE HERE A LOT OF POLITICAL RISK BEING PRICED IN. EVEN WITH THE FRENCH MINISTER SAYING OVERNIGHT THAT HE IS CONFIDENT THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE ABLE TO PASS A BUDGET NEXT YEAR.
如果我们把目光转向法国，当然一切又回到了法国。即使今天对法国抗议活动的关注度降低，我们仍然可以看到法国和德国国债收益率之间的利差继续扩大，达到自2010年以来的最高水平，我们仍然可以看到大量的政治风险已被定价。尽管法国部长 Overnight 表示他有信心政府明年能够通过预算案。
VONNIE: SURE, AND MORE AND MORE COMPANIES MORNING THERE WILL BE AN IMPACT ON QUARTERLY EARNINGS. IN THE U.S., THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING, A NICE BALANCE THE NASDAQ 100. DIDN'T REALLY MATERIALIZE, OF THE S&P DID MANAGE TO EKE OUT A GAIN. THIS MORNING WE LOOK LIKE WE ARE POINTED IN A MORE POSITIVE DIRECTION. THE RUSSELL 2000 WAS THE OUTPERFORMER YESTERDAY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT SEE SOME DECLINES NOW WITH SPACEX RESULTS OBVIOUSLY COMPOUNDING THINGS TODAY AND ANTICIPATION FOR META AND TESLA.
VONNIE：当然，而且越来越多的公司表明，这将对季度收益产生影响。在美国，昨天早上纳斯达克100指数出现了一次不错的平衡，但并未真正形成；标普500指数勉强录得上涨。今天早上我们看起来正指向更积极的方向。罗素2000指数是昨天的表现者，但现在看来我们可能会看到一些下跌，SpaceX的结果显然加剧了这种情况，以及市场对Meta和特斯拉的期待。
NETFLIX DIDN'T REALLY HELP OVERNIGHT, EITHER. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT YIELDS BECAUSE WE DID SEE A LITTLE BIT OF CHANGE IN GUILD RIGHT NOW IN THIS PARTICULAR SESSION. WE DID SEE THE 10 YEAR YIELD UP A COUPLE OF BASIS POINT YESTERDAY AND THE THIRTY-YEAR DOWN A COUPLE OF BASIS POINT SO THAT THE MARGINS, SOME POTENTIAL REPRICING FOR AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A FED HIKE IN DECEMBER IF NOT OCTOBER, ALTHOUGH ALL BETS ARE REALLY FOR A HOLD IN OCTOBER.
Netflix也没有在 overnight（隔夜）起到帮助作用。让我们来看看收益率，因为我们在本次特定交易中确实看到了一些变化。昨天我们看到10年期收益率上升了几个基点，30年期收益率下降了几个基点，因此利润率方面存在一些潜在的重新定价，至少存在美联储在12月甚至10月加息的可能性，尽管目前所有的押注都集中在10月维持利率不变上。
BRENT CRUDE ALSO COLORING THINGS QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE TALKED TO $111 A BARREL AGAIN YESTERDAY. THAT IS VERY ELEVATED AND OF COURSE, FEWER THAN TWO WEEKS OUT FROM THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. THE NASDAQ 100 DOWN 3.3%, AND THE DOW OF 3%. THAT PRETTY MUCH TELLS YOU EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THIS MONTH'S TRADING. THIS GIVES US AN INDIVIDUAL PREMARKET MOVERS. OLIVIA? OLIVIA: YES, IT IS ALL ABOUT EARNINGS TODAY.
布伦特原油在过去几天也对市场产生了相当大的影响。我们昨天再次谈到每桶111美元。这一水平非常高，而且距离中期选举还有不到两周的时间。纳斯达克100指数下跌3.3%，道琼斯指数下跌3%。这在很大程度上告诉了你关于本月交易的所有你需要知道的事情。这为我们提供了盘前个别异动股。Olivia？Olivia：是的，今天的一切都关乎收益。
WE ARE KICKING OFF OF SPACEX WERE OBVIOUSLY THIRD-QUARTER EARNINGS CAME IN BETTER THAN EXPECTED, LARGELY DUE TO IMPROVEMENT IN THE AI AND SATELLITE BUSINESSES. HOWEVER, THE FOCUS WAS FULLY ON THE EARNINGS CALL OR ELON MUSK THREW HIS WEIGHT BETWEEN A POTENTIAL MERGER BETWEEN SPACEX AND TESLA, WHICH COULD BE WORTH ROUGHLY $3.5 TRILLION. SUCH A CONGLOMERATE IS MOSTLY IMPORTANT AS IT WOULD GIVE SPACEX AND ELON MUSK POTENTIAL ROOM TO FINANCE SOME OF HIS COMPUTER POWER THAT HE'S BEEN TRYING TO PUSH OUT.
我们以SpaceX作为开场，其第三季度收益显然好于预期，主要得益于AI和卫星业务的改善。然而，焦点完全集中在收益电话会议上，Elon Musk在SpaceX和Tesla之间潜在合并的可能性中施加了他的影响力，这可能价值约3.5万亿美元。这样一个 conglomerate（企业集团）之所以重要，主要是因为它将为SpaceX和Elon Musk提供潜在空间，以资助他一直在推动的一些计算能力。
HE SAID ON THE CALL POTENTIALLY 10 GIGAWATTS EXTRA COMPUTER POWER WOULD GO INTO EFFECT FROM NEXT YEAR. THAT WOULD COST ABOUT $500 BILLION, SO A LOT OF THE REASON BEING THROWN AROUND IS THAT FINANCING. MOVING OVER TO NETFLIX, THEY REPORTED THEIR SLOWEST SALES JUMP IN THREE YEARS AND ALSO FORECAST A DISAPPOINTING FOURTH QUARTER. THAT COMES AMID A DISAPPOINTING ADVERTISING REVENUE AS WELL AS CONCERNS OVER PROGRAMMING. THEY'VE RECENTLY HAVING MANAGEMENT OVERALL, CHANGING AROUND A COUPLE OF SENIOR LEADERSHIP POSITIONS AS THEY TRY TO STEM A 25% DECLINE IN THE STOCK.
他在电话会议上表示，明年可能会有额外的10吉瓦计算能力投入使用。这将花费约5000亿美元，因此被广泛讨论的一个主要原因是融资问题。转向Netflix，他们报告了三年来最慢的销售增长，并预测第四季度令人失望。这是在广告收入令人失望以及对节目内容担忧的背景下发生的。他们最近进行了管理层调整，更换了几位高级领导职位，试图遏制股价25%的跌幅。
FINALLY, UNITED IS ALSO LOWER IN PREMARKET TRADING. THEY HAVE REPORTED A DISAPPOINTING FOURTH QUARTER AMID SURGING FUEL COSTS. THEY WERE UP ABOUT 60% IN THE QUARTER AND ALSO, NUMERAL AN RESILIENT VONNIE: DEMAND. VONNIE:WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON NOT JUST UNITED, BUT MANY OTHER AIRLINES AS WELL. ALSO COMING UP THIS HOUR, CALLUM PICKERING OF OEEK -- PEEL HUNT JOINT ON FISCAL CONCERNS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT INVESTORS ARE IN A BUBBLE.
最后，联合航空（United）在盘前交易中同样走低。他们在燃料成本飙升的背景下报告了令人失望的第四季度业绩。他们的股价在该季度上涨了约60%，此外，数字和富有弹性的VONNIE：需求。VONNIE：我们将不仅关注联合航空，还将密切关注许多其他航空公司。此外，在本小时内即将播出的是，来自OEEK——皮尔亨特（Pee Hunt）的卡勒姆·皮克林（Callum Pickering）就财政担忧以及投资者是否处于泡沫中的可能性进行了讨论。
WE WILL HAVE AN EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH BERNARD MENSAH OF BANK OF AMERICA. ELON MUSK SAYS SPACEX AND TEST LAB FORM SPECIAL COMMITTEES TO EXPLORE A POTENTIAL MERGER. HE SPOKE IN AN EARNINGS CALL FOLLOWING SPACEX RESULT.
我们将独家采访美国银行（Bank of America）的伯纳德·门萨赫（Bernard Mensah）。埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）表示，SpaceX和Test Lab成立特别委员会以探索潜在合并的可能性。他在SpaceX财报公布后的电话会议上发表了上述言论。
I DO THINK THERE IS A LOT OF MERIT TO COMBINING COMPANIES AS WE ARE PRETTY MUCH IN THE SUPER INTELLIGENCE SINGULARITY. AND THERE IS A LOT TO BE GAINED FROM COOPERATING ON DEVELOPING SUPER INTELLIGENCE SOFTWARE, CHIP DESIGN, ROBOTICS, MASS TO ORBIT. CONDUCTIVITY. I THINK IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA, BUT IT IS REALLY UP TO THE SPECIAL COMMITTEES OF BOTH COMPANIES. VONNIE: JOINING US NOW IS OUR EQUITY STRATEGIST. WE KNOW ELON MUSK CLAIMS THIS IS A GOOD IDEA, HE SAYS IT HAS TO BEGIN INDEPENDENT PROCESS, HOWEVER INDEPENDENT THESE ARE.
我认为将两家公司合并确实有很多道理，因为我们几乎已经处于超级智能奇点（Super Intelligence Singularity）。在开发超级智能软件、芯片设计、机器人技术、入轨运载能力以及导电性方面合作，将带来巨大的收益。我认为这是一个好主意，但这真的取决于两家公司的特别委员会。VONNIE：现在加入我们的是我们的股票策略师。我们知道埃隆·马斯克声称这是一个好主意，他说这必须开始于一个独立的过程，尽管这些过程是独立的。
WHAT WOULD BE THE ADVANTAGE HERE?
这里的优势是什么？
I THINK THE FIRST THING TO SAY IS THAT SPACEX-TESLA MERGER HAS BEEN ROOTED FOR SOME TIME. RUMORS HAVE BEEN SWIRLING EVER SINCE THE SPACEX IPO, AND I THINK THE PROTAGONISTS OF THE MERGER, IN TERMS OF ROBOTICS, CHIPS, COMPUTER, SUPER INTELLIGENCE WHICH IS THE LARGEST DIVISION BY SALES AT SPACEX IS OBVIOUSLY A HUGE FOCAL POINT FOR THE COMPANY AND TESLA ALSO HAS BEEN INVESTING HEAVILY IN AI AND ROBOTICS. SO THERE ARE SOME NATURAL SYNERGIES BETWEEN THE TWO COMPANIES.
我认为首先要说的是，SpaceX与特斯拉（Tesla）的合并由来已久。自SpaceX首次公开募股（IPO）以来，谣言就一直流传。我认为合并的主要推动者在于机器人技术、芯片、计算机以及超级智能领域，后者是SpaceX按销售额计算的最大部门，显然是该公司的焦点所在。特斯拉也在人工智能和机器人技术方面投入了大量资金。因此，这两家公司之间存在一些天然的协同效应。
BUT AS YOU'VE ALLUDED TO, THERE IS CONFLICT OF INTEREST. IT HASN'T BEEN CONFIRMED, AND SPECIAL COMMITTEES HAVE BEEN SET UP. ELON MUSK IS INVOLVED IN THE TALKS, SO THERE ARE STILL HURDLES TO OVERCOME A FROM GOVERNMENT VALUATION AND WHETHER IT IS IN THE BEST INTEREST OF THE SHAREHOLDERS FOR EACH COMPANY. VONNIE: ELON SAID EFFECTIVELY COULD BE TESLA SHAREHOLDERS WOULD BE THE ONES YOU WOULD HAVE TO CONVINCE HER THAT WOULD HAVE TO BE CONVINCED.
但正如你所暗示的，存在利益冲突。此事尚未得到确认，并且已成立了特别委员会。埃隆·马斯克参与了谈判，因此仍有障碍需要克服，包括政府估值问题，以及此次合并是否符合每家公司股东的最佳利益。VONNIE：埃隆实际上表示，特斯拉股东将是那些你需要说服的人，你必须让他们信服。
WHAT WOULD TESLA SHAREHOLDERS PROBLEM BE WITH THIS MERGER?
特斯拉股东对这次合并会有什么顾虑？
I THINK THAT IS THE BIG QUESTION. LIKE I SAID, THERE ARE SOME OBVIOUS SYNERGIES AROUND COMPUTER ROBOTICS, AI, ETC., BUT ONE OF THE FRUSTRATIONS FOR TESLA SHAREHOLDERS FOR A LONG TIME HAS BEEN SOME OF THE SIDE PROJECTS AND SLIGHTLY MORE IMMATERIAL EARNINGS STREAMS THAT HAS BEEN AN OVERHANG FOR THE STOCK FOR MANY YEARS. OBVIOUSLY YOU CAN'T BET AGAINST ELON MUSK BECAUSE HE IS A VISIONARY IN MANY WAYS, BUT TESLA SHAREHOLDERS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE ON THIS ADDITIONAL RISK AROUND SPACEX.
我认为这是最大的问题。正如我所说，在计算机机器人、人工智能等领域存在一些明显的协同效应，但长期以来特斯拉股东的一个挫败感在于，一些副业和相对次要的收入来源多年来一直对股价构成压制。显然你不能与埃隆·马斯克作对，因为他在许多方面都是具有远见卓识的人，但特斯拉股东将不得不承担围绕 SpaceX 的额外风险。
THEY WOULD NEED TO THINK ABOUT THE DIFFERENT EARNINGS STREAMS, AND THERE ARE ALSO GOVERNANCE ISSUES AS WELL. LOTS OF THINGS TO UNPACK AND IT WOULD BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST MERGERS OF ALL TIME, SO ENORMOUS COMPLEXITY. VONNIE: SPACEX DEFINITELY SURPRISED TO THE UPSIDE WITH ITS EARNINGS. WE ALSO DID GET THE DETAILS ABOUT ANTHROPIC SHOWING PLE
他们需要思考不同的收入来源，同时也存在治理问题。有很多事情需要梳理，这将是历史上规模最大的合并之一，因此复杂性巨大。冯妮：SpaceX 的收益超出预期令人惊讶。我们还获得了关于 Anthropic 的详细情况，显示其盈利能
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