美国PPI超预期飙升通胀压力加剧美联储十月加息预期升温
Oil and Gas Costs Send US Producer Prices Higher
PPI与CPI连续超预期直接改变了美联储十月议息会议的博弈格局，投资者需重新评估加息概率及美债收益率走势，建议关注后续PCE数据及联邦公开市场委员会声明。
With your economic data, retail sales, initial jobless claims, and PPI, and Karen has more.. So it looks like upside surprise on producer prices, John. Producer prices on year 6.3, estimated 5.4, and in fact, on a month, 1.3 versus 0.6. So PPI on a headline basis looking hot. Remember that feeds into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge of CPE. So that's important. Retail sales on a headline basis also beating expectations 0.8 versus 0.3.
有了你的经济数据，包括零售销售、初请失业金人数和PPI（生产者物价指数），还有凯伦有更多……所以看起来生产者价格出现了超预期上行，约翰。生产者物价指数同比为6.3%，预估为5.4%，而环比更是1.3%，高于预期的0.6%。因此，总体PPI数据显得相当强劲。请记住，这会传导至美联储偏好的通胀指标核心个人消费支出（PCE）。所以这一点很重要。总体零售销售也超出预期，实际为0.8%，高于预期的0.3%。
The thing to remember there, though, of course, is that number is probably inflated by higher gas prices anyway. So it's a stronger retail sales number, but probably reflecting what's going on at at the pump. We'll need to see the control there to get a better gauge on the inflation story. So I think at, you know, at first glance, stronger than expected PPI numbers. We'll have to see the details how... Of... In terms of how to calculate for PCE, but it all leans into the idea that inflation right now remains hot.
不过，需要记住的一点是，这个数字可能无论如何都被高油价推高了。所以零售销售数据虽然更强，但可能反映的是加油站的情况。我们需要看到控制组的数据，以便更好地衡量通胀形势。所以我认为，乍一看，PPI数据强于预期。我们还得看细节，了解如何计算PCE，但所有这些都指向一个观点：目前的通胀依然居高不下。
And, of course, that's keeping pressure on the Fed. Andy, you take your time over a second look. I'll get through to what's happening elsewhere. You mentioned the control group. Control group, a bit softer than expected. It came in at point one on retail sales. The expectation was point three. PPI looks hot. The jobs market does not look like a problem with claims at one ninety nine, and the estimate was 200. We are always around 200 k on jobless claims week after week after week, so we can park that story.
当然，这也给美联储带来了压力。安迪，你慢慢再看一遍。我会先看看其他地方发生了什么。你提到了控制组。控制组略低于预期。零售销售中的控制组数据为0.1%，而预期为0.3%。PPI看起来很强。就业市场看起来没有问题，初请失业金人数为19.9万，预期为20万。每周的初请失业金人数都一直在20万左右徘徊，所以我们可以把这部分故事放一放了。
Focus on what's happening with PPI. Hotter than expected on PPI. Hotter than expected on core CPI. Raising the question about how life this meeting might be at the end of this month. In the bond market at the moment, we're gripped by risk aversion on the one hand, which is pushing money into bonds at the other side of things. This tug of war, you've also got the prospects for a move at the end of this month at the Federal Reserve off the back of hotter than expected CPI and now PPI.
重点关注PPI的情况。PPI高于预期。核心CPI也高于预期。这引发了一个问题：本月底的这次会议是否会是“关键”的一次。在债券市场目前，一方面我们对风险厌恶情绪感到紧张，这推动资金流入债券；另一方面，随着CPI和现在的PPI数据均高于预期，美联储在本月底采取行动的前景也构成了拉扯。
Yields are down by four basis points on the session. Four seventy five on twos. This is not the direction of travel the Federal Reserve would like to see see, especially those that are trying to push off October and maybe just look for, like Williams, look for one more hike in this cycle in this year, and no more in 2027. This makes me think that October is really more of a live meeting. It felt like the door was closing.
收益率在本交易日下降了4个基点。两年期国债收益率为4.75%。这不是美联储希望看到的走势，尤其是那些试图将加息推迟到十月的人，或者像威廉姆斯那样，寻求在今年这个周期内再加息一次，而在2027年不再加息的人。这让我认为十月确实是一个关键的会议月份。感觉大门正在关闭。
It's opening up just a little bit more after yesterday's CPI and, of course, today's PPI. Without a doubt, we've got some two way risk. That's for sure. I wanna bring Anna Karen back into the conversation. And they're just going through some of the details. What jumps out for you in some of these reports this morning? I mean, just looking at the PPI, obviously, the fuel story is having a big impact there. The impact of jet fuel costs and diesel and the like is clearly impacting companies.
在昨天的CPI和今天的PPI公布后，市场情绪略微升温。毫无疑问，我们面临着双向风险。这一点是确定的。我想请Anna Karen回到对话中，他们正在梳理一些细节。今天早上这些报告中有什么让你特别关注的吗？我的意思是，仅从PPI来看，显然燃料故事对其产生了重大影响。航空燃油成本以及柴油等的影响显然正在冲击企业。
So that's the first thing. Second point, John, as you mentioned, the control group and retail sales weaker than expected. So that's interesting that it's... There could be some skew effects going on because we had back to school shopping in August, and we have the online... The big online sales days move around. So that has an impact. But the bottom line is you have strong inflation pressuring the Fed to raise rates.
这是第一点。第二点，正如John所提到的，控制组数据和零售销售数据弱于预期。这很有趣……可能存在一些分布偏移效应，因为我们在八月进行了返校购物，而大型在线促销日的时间也在变动。因此这会产生影响。但归根结底，强劲的通胀压力迫使美联储加息。
At a time now, we might be we might be starting to see consumers pull back, which some people have been warning about for some time. So, clearly, there's a balancing act there for the Fed, but you'd have to say if you're Kevin Moore sitting in Bangkok seeing these numbers in total, CPI yesterday, PPI today, even as you do your numbers for PCE, as you both mentioned, it certainly doesn't lean lean into the idea that October is a done deal.
与此同时，我们可能开始看到消费者有所退缩，一些人对此已警告良久。因此，显然美联储面临着一场平衡术。但如果你像Kevin Moore那样坐在曼谷审视这些总体数据——昨天的CPI、今天的PPI，再加上你们俩都提到的为PCE计算数据时——这 certainly 并不支持‘十月加息已成定局’的观点。
It's probably gonna be a very lively discussion at the very least.
至少，这将是一场非常热烈的讨论。
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