OpenAI澄清700亿美元营收预期，Delta因油价下调盈利指引

It's Friday. Can we hold on to gains 30 minutes until the start of trading? I'm Danny Berger. I'm mike ball. Bloomberg. Open interest starts now. Coming up on today's show open I $70 billion revenue target breathes new life into the eye trade. Soaring jet fuel prices from the war in the Middle East continue to squeeze U.S. airlines. And a trading windfall for Wall Street's biggest banks with Goldman leading the pack.

Okay. The stocks we're looking at this morning we just got Delta early earnings. We're going to break this down with Sid in just a moment. But look at the price action. Down two and a third of 1%. Earnings come in light. Delta cuts its full year profit outlook. It was the sharp jump in fuel costs that eat into profits. And it forced the company to reset expectations for the rest of the year. We were wondering when will fuel prices finally really be passed on to a consumer that starts to push back in oil.

It's a different story falling this morning and then starts to edge up. President Trump yesterday said the U.S. won't attack Iran. Before the midterms. There were some concern before he does. But Mike, it feels like that relief has been short lived this morning. Yeah, just a few minutes ago, we got another indication that the kinetic warfare is still ongoing in the strait oil back up. And this is after an overnight where we saw French bonds getting a little bit of a bid.

Rates for falling equities were doing well. We're getting a relief rally sort of from these confusing OpenAI headlines yesterday that now have been sort of rectified. So here we go. Oil back in the driver's seat. And that's probably what we expect for the rest of the session. Again, it speaks to the fragility of the moment that you can have one headline, this coming from Iran's state news agency that the IRGC is targeting shippers and a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

We're going to talk to Ed about this in a moment. But I think it's so fascinating that the entire market is being moved on. OpenAI headlines a company which is not yet public, a company that we're concerned about what its revenue is. We get some clarification this morning. Maybe it's not as bad as we thought, but that in entirety, moving the S&P 500 in the Nasdaq. And earlier in the year, we were talking about how many these guys coming public, which had too much light and all this and that.

You then have a better scrutiny on sort of the earnings and the projection of earnings and just how long it will take. And you have to adjust the multiples of the whole entire I trade. And we're kind of seeing that play out. So there's probably greater volatility in the eye trade as these headlines come out. And we get this launching of these IPO's eventually. Yeah. And so we'll actually be able to see at least the quarterly updates from these companies.

So let's get into that open I is expecting to reach or exceed $70 billion in annual revenue by the end of the year. Yesterday, tech shares led losses after reports that its revenue would be lower than some previous estimates around $50 billion. Let's bring in Bloomberg Tech host Ed Ludlow. At first of all, what was the discrepancy? What changed over the past 12 hours? Well, the discrepancy is also in understanding what annualized revenue actually is, right?

It's not that. Uh, by the end of 2026, this year, OpenAI will have booked 77 $0 billion of revenue. It's that in very simple terms, by the end of this year, OpenAI expects to be making money at a pace that would produce $70 billion over the next 12 months. That specific discrepancy in the figure 70 billion, uh, by year end versus exiting September with, uh, annualized revenue and a run rate basis of $50 billion. It's like accounting.

Um, you know, what investors have been trying to do in recent months is make it apples to apples with anthropic. And the difference is quite simple. It is gross revenues where you do or don't count some revenues through cloud partners versus net revenues. Um, but the more interesting thing I think, guys, right, is like, why did markets kind of freak out yesterday about a private company? Uh, and it's IRR. I found that like, amazing.

Yeah. I think everyone is really hanging on to the I train is the driver. But switching gears a little here to Apple. Also seeing them under a little pressure de component sort of shipments were down. Is this Apple specific with the phone cycle? I know I'm due for a new phone. Or is this really a greater kind of warning for just electronic prices going up and then the pushback from the consumer? Okay, so the origin of this is a NIKKEI report that Apple told some component suppliers they were cutting their order for those components by about 15%.

Nick citing anonymous sources. Uh, but Nick also kind of went a step further to say that this generation of iPhone 18 Pro, in terms of contemporaneous demand, is down in the region of 15 to 20% relative to the prior generation in the same period. Um, and, you know, Apple hasn't commented on any of this, but the backdrop is really simple. Higher handset prices specifically attributable to higher memory costs. You know, let's make it really simple story. iPhones cost more.

Why do iPhones cost more? Because the memory components in them cost more. And that seems to be putting off the consumer. Based on Nick's report, which Apple didn't engage with. Thank you so much. Looking forward to Bloomberg Tech in about two hours time. That's Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow. Elsewhere in corporate news, shares of Delta falling 2.5% in the premarket. It cut its full year earnings outlook. CEO Ed Bastian saying, quote, I wouldn't call that a surprise to anyone.

It's all because of higher fuel prices. If this continues to go higher for longer, which I think it will as a premium airline in the industry, we have the best ability to price for that. Joining us now is Bloomberg's global aviation correspondent. Said Philip, maybe someone was surprised considering that shares fell. Maybe it's not surprising said that there are higher fuel prices, but maybe it's the lack of delta ability to really push all of that along to the to their customers.

Absolutely. So for the airline industry, it's been this chicken and egg situation as to how far you can push ticket prices before consumers push back. And so Delta has that pricing power, especially with their strong loyalty program, especially with their strong premium cabins. The problem for the airline is even those customers have a limit on how much they're willing to pay. And so the airlines are having to do this delicate balance between how much of that fuel cost increase they can pass on and how much of that they have to retain, and that sort of Hood's profitability and impacts their focus for the year because of the ability to actually charge people more.

And I mean, Delta keeps talking about how ticket prices are still lower than inflation. The prices increase on Delta on ticket prices have being less than inflation. At the same time, consumers who are feeling the pinch may be sort of holding off on flying. So do we have that transparency. Or we can see where the premium price versus the sort of main cabin price difference equate to the loss of business. So we can actually see the the impact of this sort of shift in consumer sentiment.

So about 6,069% of Delta's revenues in the third quarter came from premium and loyalty customers versus like or just basically 40% of it coming from the, um, the main cabin. So it is a bigger share of that sort of pie. So for Delta, the set of premium customer is going to be more and more important as these oil prices drag on. What does it mean for the other US carriers? To what degree is Delta a bellwether. So Delta is obviously the most profitable US carrier.

And so all the other carriers, uh, either sort of united US along with Delta, has sort of focus on that premium end of the market. But you have others that are sort of much harder hit. And so wh