布伦特原油突破102美元，亚洲股市承压分化
Oil Spoils the Global Stock Rally as Brent Tops $102
原油突破关键价位且伴随具体地缘事件驱动，直接影响大宗商品定价与全球资产估值逻辑，需重点关注其对通胀预期及跨市场资金流向的冲击。
PAUL: LIVE FROM SYDNEY, I'M PAUL ALLEN YOU ARE WATCHING "INSIGHT." FUEL PRICES AND CHIP SHARES COME UNDER PRESSURE. SAMSUNG FAILING TO EXCITE MARKETS. WILL EXTENDS GAINS ON THE REPORT THE WHITE HOUSE IS SEEKING PRE- MIDTERM MILITARY STRIKE OPTIONS ON IRAN. TKO CAPITAL CO-FOUNDER JOINS US WITH A WARNING ABOUT A DANGEROUS MIX OF MARKET CONCENTRATION, GEOPOLITICAL FRAGMENTATION RESHAPING GLOBAL RETURNS FOR FUEL COSTS RISING, PRIVATE JET DEMAND HOLDING FIRM.
保罗：我在悉尼为您现场直播，我是保罗·艾伦，您正在收看《洞察》节目。燃油价格和芯片股承压。三星未能提振市场情绪。随着白宫寻求在中期选举前对伊朗发动军事打击的选项，威尔·延德继续上涨。TKO资本联合创始人 joins us with a warning about a dangerous mix of market concentration, geopolitical fragmentation reshaping global returns for fuel costs rising, private jet demand holding firm.
VISTAJET FOUNDER THOMAS FLOHR ON WHY HE THINKS THE SECTOR IS SHOWING RESILIENCE. ASIAN MARKETS ARE BEING CHALLENGED ON MULTIPLE FRONTS. SAMSUNG'S RECORD EARNINGS FAILED TO CREATE EXPECTATIONS. TSMC SALES FIGURES FOR FURTHER DIRECTION ON THE TECH TRADE. CHINA'S OPEN IS NOT HELPING MUCH. HOLIDAY SPENDING IS MUTED, TRADE DISPUTES PUSHING AUTO AND OPTICAL STOCKS. ANTHONY STEPHENS JOINS US FROM HONG KONG WITH MORE ON THIS.
维斯塔喷气机创始人托马斯·弗洛尔谈为何他认为该行业展现出韧性。亚洲市场正面临多重挑战。三星创纪录的盈利未能达到市场预期。台积电的销售数据为科技贸易提供了进一步的方向。中国公开赛并未带来太多帮助。假日消费低迷，贸易争端推高汽车和光学股票。安东尼·斯蒂芬斯从香港加入我们，带来更多报道。
LET'S START WITH SAMSUNG. CAN YOU TALK US THROUGH THE EARNINGS AND THE MARKET REACTION AND HOW TRADERS ARE SETTING UP FOR THE TSMC NUMBERS? ANTHONY: IT HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING REACTION. WE SAW THE LOCALS RESPOND TO KIND OF POSITIVELY TO THE NUMBERS WHEN THEY CAME OUT. IT'S THE FIRST COMPANY TO 100 TRILLION IN A SINGLE QUARTER. IT HAS SINCE FADED AS THE NUMBERS MISSED VERY ELEVATED ESTIMATES. THAT IS SOMETHING WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS THE TECH SPACE IN THE U.S.
让我们从三星开始。你能跟我们讲讲盈利情况、市场反应以及交易员如何为台积电的数据做准备吗？安东尼：这是一个有趣的反应。我们看到当地人对这些数字的反应相当积极，当它们公布时。它是第一家在一个季度内达到100万亿的公司。但随着数字未能达到非常高的估计，它已经回落。这是我们在美国科技领域看到的情况。
AND TAIWAN. SHARES HAVE TRADED AROUND THE LOWS OF THE DAY. ON THE OTHER HAND YOU ARE SEEING A LOT OF EXPOSURE IN THE MEMORY TRADE. HYNEK'S SHARES ARE TRADING SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS IT LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE U.S. AND U.K. OTHER SHARES TREADING QUITE WELL AS IT LOOKS TO PERHAPS INCREASE ITS WEIGHT IN THE TOPICS AFTER A HUGE REBALANCING ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE BACK END OF THIS YEAR. THE CHINESE FALL BEHIND LARGE MANUFACTURING IN KOREA, AROUND THE MEMORY SPACE.
在台湾。股价一直在当天的低点附近交易。另一方面，你在内存交易中看到很多敞口。海涅克的股价略有上涨，因为它正试图进入美国和英国市场。其他股票表现相当不错，因为它可能在今年年底大幅再平衡活动后增加其在主题中的权重。中国在韩国的大型制造业中落后，主要在内存领域。
THERE IS NOT ANY INVESTOR TOLERANCE FOR THAT. FLIP THE BOARD TO THE CHINESE REOPEN. THERE IS QUITE A BIFURCATED PICTURE. THE OIL MOVE IS HELPING PETROCHINA AND SINOPEC, BIG-TICKET REFINERS AT THE TOP. THE CHINESE BANKING SECTOR IS OUTPERFORMING THE REST OF THE WORLD. ROCKSOLID ON THE BACK OF CHINA'S INSULATION FROM EUROPE'S CRISIS. CHINESE SHIPPING STOCKS ARE DOING REALLY WELL. SHIPPING RATES SKYROCKET INTO THIS ISSUE AROUND GEOPOLITICS AND SHIPPING DIFFICULTIES IN THAT AREA.
投资者对此没有任何容忍度。将董事会翻转到中国重新开放。局面相当分化。石油走势有助于中国石油和中国石化这两家大型炼油厂位居榜首。中国银行板块的表现优于世界其他地区。得益于中国免受欧洲危机的影响，表现稳固。中国航运股表现非常好。航运费率飙升，本期关注地缘政治和该地区航运困难的问题。
YOU FLIP THE BOARD COME ON THE DOWNSIDE IN CHINA, IT IS NEW CHINA. IT IS CHINA TECH AND THERE IS MASSIVE NEWS COMING BACK FROM A MULTIYEAR HOLIDAY. THE OPTICAL SECTOR AND THE SMALLER SEMI CONDUCTORS A LITTLE BIT DOWN AFTER COMING BACK FROM A LONG BREAK AS SHARES IN HONG KONG HAVE COME OFF A LOT. YOU ALSO SEE THE AUTO SECTOR UNDER SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE AS THE EUROPEANS PUT SIGNIFICANT TRADE TENSIONS ON THE BLOC WITH CHINA FOR A LOT OF DISCUSSION ABOUT HYBRIDS AND EV'S.
我们换个话题。中国市场的下行风险在于，这是新中国。这是中国科技板块，而且从长达数月的假期归来后，大量消息涌回。光学板块和小型半导体板块在经历长假休市后略有下跌，因为港股已大幅回落。此外，由于欧洲对中国 bloc 施加了重大的贸易紧张局势，围绕混合动力汽车和电动汽车的讨论众多，汽车行业也面临巨大压力。
PEOPLE ARE SOMETHING FIRST AND ASKING QUESTIONS LATER. LET'S FLIP THE BOARD, THE DEVELOPING CONCERN IN ASIA. THAT IS THE BANKING SECTOR. WE START TO SEE THE BANKING SECTOR PROBLEMS IN THE EUROPEAN REGION AND THE U.S. START TO FILTER INTO ASIA. WE SAW THE WEAKNESS IN SINGAPORE YESTERDAY WITH REALLY BIG MOVES AFTER JP MORGAN REPORTED ON BANKING WEAKNESS. THERE IS A FOLLOW-THROUGH HERE, THE BIGGEST DROP IN SINGAPORE STOCKS IN AROUND SIX MONTHS.
人们先行动，后提问。让我们换个话题，关注亚洲的发展动态。那就是银行业。我们开始看到欧洲地区和美国出现的银行业问题开始蔓延至亚洲。昨天新加坡市场出现了疲软，摩根大通报告银行业疲软后引发了剧烈波动。这里存在连锁反应，新加坡股市迎来了约六个月来最大跌幅。
IT IS ALSO IN HSBC AND THE JAPANESE FINANCIALS. SO WE SHOULD BE PLAYING -- PAYING CLOSER ATTENTION TO THE BANKING SESSION IN ASIA AS IT FOLLOWS THROUGH FROM EUROPEAN WEAKNESS. PAUL: BLOOMBERG MARKETS REPORTER ANTHONY STEPHENS THERE. LET'S GET MARKET PERSPECTIVE NOW FROM MATTHEW, THE COFOUNDER OF TKO CAPITAL. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US TODAY. I JUST WANT TO START WITH A STORY THAT HAS BEEN SUCKING OXYGEN AND MONEY OUT OF MARKETS IN 2026 AND THAT IS OF COURSE AI.
汇丰银行和日本金融机构也是如此。因此，随着欧洲疲软的传导效应，我们应该更密切关注亚洲的银行业表现。保罗：彭博市场记者安东尼·斯蒂芬斯在此。现在让我们听听 TKO Capital 联合创始人马修的市场观点。非常感谢你今天加入我们。我想从一个故事开始，这个故事正在吸走 2026 年市场的氧气和资金，那当然就是人工智能（AI）。
IS THAT YOUR FAVORITE INVESTMENT AT THE MOMENT? MATHIEU: CERTAINLY NOT. THANK YOU FOR HAVING US. FILTERING THROUGH WHAT ANTHONY SAID ABOUT THE MARKET, THE BIG AI THEME THAT HAS BEEN VERY PRESENT FOR SOME MONTHS NOW, RIGHTLY SO. REMEMBER WHEN WE LAST SPOKE WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL MISALLOCATION OF CAPITAL. THAT WAS MAYBE SIX MONTHS AGO. INTEREST RATES WERE NOT WHERE THEY WERE. WE ARE SEEING SOME MOMENTS WHERE IT IS FACING REALITY IN TERMS OF THE REAL COST OF LIQUIDITY, THE COST OF FUNDING.
那是你目前最喜欢的投资吗？马修：绝对不是。感谢邀请我们。承接安东尼关于市场的发言，那个已经持续数月且非常显著的人工智能主题，确实如此。还记得我们上次交谈时，我们在讨论资本错配的可能性。那大概是六个月前。当时的利率并非如今这般。我们正在目睹一些时刻，面对流动性实际成本、融资成本的现实挑战。
THAT WILL NOT SPARE AI. WE KNOW THERE IS SOME -- BEING RAISED RIGHT NOW, TRILLIONS BEING DEPLOYED. THE VERY REASON, THE VERY FACT WE ARE NOW SEEING SOME OF THESE BIG PLAYERS HAVING A LOT OF DEBT ON THEIR BOOKS, WE ALL KNOW IT IS BETTER TO TAKE DEBT WHEN IT IS CHEAP THAN WHEN THE FREE RATE IS FIVE PLUS. WE ARE NOT ENTERING THIS MOMENT WHERE MANY OF THE MEGATREND AND AI BEING ONE OF THEM WILL HAVE TO EFFECTIVELY DELIVER AND SHOW IT IS A PROPER RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED FOR ANYONE WILLING TO GATHER SOME CAPITAL.
这不会放过人工智能。我们知道目前有一些——正在筹集资金，数万亿美元正在部署。根本原因，以及我们现在看到这些大型参与者账面上拥有大量债务的事实，我们都知道，在利率便宜时举债总比免费利率高达 5% 以上时举债要好。我们并未进入这样一个阶段：许多 megatrend（大趋势），其中人工智能是其中之一，将不得不有效交付成果，并向任何愿意投入资本的投资者证明其资本回报率合理。
ON THIS THEME PAUL: I KNOW THAT YOU SAY DIVERSIFICATION IS ESSENTIAL. THIS IS A VERY OLD IDEA. BUT DO YOU FEEL LIKE THIS IS GETTING REALLY DIFFICULT NOW? AI IS EITHER WOVEN INTO OR IS BEING DISRUPTED OR DISRUPTING AS ARE SO MANY OTHER PARTS OF THE MARKET. HOW DO YOU DIVERSIFY? MATHIEU: THAT IS PROBABLY TRUE ON THE PUBLIC MARKET. WE KNOW AND THERE HAVE BEEN MANY TALKS ABOUT THE CONCENTRATION OF THE VALUE IN THE PUBLIC INDICES.
保罗：在这个主题上，我知道你说多元化至关重要。这是一个非常古老的理念。但你觉得现在这变得真的很难吗？人工智能要么被融入市场，要么正在颠覆或被颠覆，就像市场上许多其他部分一样。你如何多元化？马修：这在公开市场可能是真的。我们知道，并且有很多关于公共指数中价值集中的讨论。
NOW WE ARE SEEING PART OF THE BULL MARKET CAPTURING PART OF THIS DEMAND. BUT WE GET TKO CAPITAL COME AS YOU KNOW, WE ARE TRYING TO FOCUS ON THE PART OF THE MARKET THAT IS MAYBE IN THE BLIND SPOT OF WHERE THE PUBLIC MARKET CAN PULL LIQUIDITY AND GENERATE CAPITAL FORMATION. I REALLY BELIEVE THE PRIVATE MARKET TODAY ARE ONE OF THE KEY TO DIVERSIFICATION FOR ANY ASSET ODORS, ANY ASSET ALLOCATORS. I'M IN SINGAPORE ASIA THIS WEEK, MEETING WITH INVESTORS AND PARTNERS, SHAREHOLDERS.
现在我们看到牛市的一部分正在捕获这部分需求。但我们得到TKO资本，正如你所知，我们正试图专注于那些可能处于公开市场无法拉动流动性和形成资本的盲点中的市场部分。我真心相信，今天的私募市场是任何资产所有者、任何资产配置者的多元化的关键之一。我这周在新加坡亚洲地区，与投资者、合作伙伴和股东会面。
THAT IS THE THING THAT KEEPS COMING BACK. FIRST OF ALL, THE GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION. WE KNOW THE WORLD HAS CHANGED THE PAST 18 MONTHS. WE KNOW THERE IS A DE- GLOBALIZATION TAKING PLACE. I SEE A LOT OF FLOWS EFFECTIVELY COMING BACK AND INVESTING MORE DOMESTICALLY, SPECIFICALLY HERE IN ASIA. AND YOU'VE GOT ALL THESE BIG TRENDS. DEFENSE IS ONE. HOW CAN WE TALK ABOUT DEFENSE. DEGLOBALIZATION, THE ENERGY TRANSITION BECOMES ONE OF THE KEY THEMES ON THE BACK OF THE WAR.
这是不断回归的事情。首先，地理多元化。我们知道世界在过去18个月发生了变化。我们知道正在发生去全球化。我看到很多资金实际上回流并更多地在国内投资，特别是在亚洲。而且你有所有这些大趋势。国防是一个。我们如何谈论国防？去全球化，能源转型成为战争背后的关键主题之一。
OIL IS BACK NEAR $100. PEOPLE WERE HOPING THE PAST FEW MONTHS IT WOULD BE A BIT MORE SOFTENING IN THE OIL PRICE. WE SEE THAT. ALL THESE BIG THEMES, TOGETHER WITH THE DEGLOBALIZATION, AND YOU ADD TO THAT THE SECRET SAUCE , INTEREST RATES AT FIVE-PLUS. IT IS A GREAT MOMENT FOR ASSET OWNERS AND PORTFOLIO MANAGERS TO RETHINK THE DIVERSIFICATION. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF DIVERSIFICATION THAT CAN COME FROM THE PRIVATE MARKET ALLOCATION.
石油价格回到接近100美元。人们希望过去几个月油价会稍微软化一些。我们看到这一点。所有这些大主题，加上全球去全球化，再加上秘密配方——利率在5%以上。对于资产所有者和组合经理来说，现在是重新思考多元化的绝佳时刻。大量的多元化可以来自私募市场配置。
PAUL: HOW ENDURING DO YOU FEEL THAT SOME OF THESE TRENDS WILL BE? THE WORLD FEELS LIKE IT IS GETTING USED TO $100 OIL. THE MIDEAST CONFLICT WHILE IT FEELS LIKE WILL GO FOREVER OF WILL EVENTUALLY END AT SOME POINT. SIMILARLY WITH THE PROTECTIONISM WE ARE SEEING AT THE MOMENT IN JUST TWO YEARS TIME THERE WILL BE A NEW RESIDENT IN THE WHITE HOUSE. COULD YOU SEE SOME OF THESE TRENDS PERHAPS REVERSING LONGER-TERM? MATHIEU: NO, I HAVE NO CRYSTAL BALL.
保罗：你觉得这些趋势中的一些会持续多久？世界似乎已经习惯了100美元的油价。中东冲突虽然感觉会永远持续下去，但最终会在某个时候结束。同样，我们目前看到的保护主义，在两年内白宫将有一位新总统。你能看到其中一些趋势可能在长期内逆转吗？马修：不，我没有水晶球。
I DON'T WAIT TO GET INTO THE POLITICS IN THE U.S. BUT I'M DEEPLY CONVINCED THAT WE ARE GOING THROUGH SOME TRANSFORMATIVE STEPS OF THE ECONOMY. WE TOUCHED ON DIGITALIZATION, THE DEFENSE. WHO CAN SAY DEFENSE IS JUST A BLEEP? I THINK IT IS MORE STRUCTURAL WHAT IS HAPPENING HERE. THE AMOUNT OF CAPITAL THAT ARE REQUIRED WORLDWIDE, CERTAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE U.S. AND THE NEWBLOCS, THE NEW ALLIANCES. THE CARBON ELECTRIFICATION IS ANOTHER THING FOR SOME OF IT IS NOT SOMETHING THAT WILL GO AWAY AFTER THE MIDTERMS OR WHEN A NEW ADMINISTRATION COMES INTO THE U.S.
我不急于介入美国政治，但我深信我们正经历经济的一些变革性阶段。我们谈到了数字化、国防领域。谁说国防只是无足轻重的杂音？我认为这里发生的是更具结构性的变化。全球范围内所需的资本量，特别是在美国之外以及在新集团、新联盟中。碳电气化是另一回事，其中一些并非在美国中期选举或新政府上台后就会消失的事情。
AT LEAST THAT IS OUR BELIEF, IT IS STRUCTURAL, IT IS FUNDAMENTALS. IT IS GOING TO DRIVE MANY OF THE GLOBAL FLOWS, INFLOWS, AND IT'S A PROCESS. THESE THINGS TAKE TIME. AS YOUR REPORTER WAS SAYING EARLIER, THE MARKETS ARE DOWN 10%, 20% ON CERTAIN STOCKS BECAUSE IT IS SELL NOW AND THINK LATER. WE ARE THINKING INTO THE LONG-TERM PROCESSES OF THE FUNDAMENTAL TRANSFORMATION THAT REQUIRES SIGNIFICANT CAPITAL. THE PUBLIC MARKET MAY NOT BE OPEN FOR THAT OR BEING HIGHLY DISCRIMI
至少这是我们的信念，它是结构性的，是基本面的。它将驱动许多全球资金流动和流入，这是一个过程。这些事情需要时间。正如你之前的记者所说，某些股票下跌了10%、20%，因为现在是抛售的时候，以后再说。我们正在考虑基本面转型的长期过程，这需要大量资本。公开市场可能并不为此开放，或者存在高度歧视性。
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更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力