美国9月非农增2.9万人，市场降息预期升温

DAVID: COMING UP ON BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND, STOCKS AND THE WEEK IRE AS HIRING SOFT ENDS.

WE ARE SEEING A SLOWDOWN IN HIRING BECAUSE OF -- MOST LIKELY BECAUSE OF AI. DAVID: AND WHY THE LABOR MARKET IS STRONGER FOR WOMEN RIGHT NOW. CHRISTINA: PLUS, PRESIDENT TRUMP RULES OUT A DIESEL EXPORT BAN. AS G7 PLANS TO RELEASE 100 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL AND FUEL. WHAT IT MEANS FOR DIESEL PRICES HERE. DAVID: AND JOBSEEKERS BEWARE.

THEY TARGET THEM WITH FAKE JOBS, FAKE OUTREACH THAT IS TARGETED TO THEM BECAUSE THEY USE AI. DAVID: HOW ONE MAN WHO CALLS HIMSELF THE PROFILER IS TAKING ON LINKEDIN SCAMMERS, AND WHAT HE SAYS ARE THE BIGGEST RED FLAGS. THE PROFILER. THE PROFILER IS COMING UP. WELCOME TO "BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND" LIGHT FROM BLOOMBERG'S WERE WORLD HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK. CHRISTINA: WE WANT TO WELCOME OUR VIEWERS AND LISTENERS ACROSS ALL PLATFORMS.

I AM GOING TO ASK HIM OUR DIRECTOR TO WIDEN OUT A BIT AND INCLUDE MY COLLEAGUE LISA MATEO IN THIS DISCUSSION BECAUSE WE FOUND OUT ABOUT TWO AND A HALF SECONDS AGO THAT YESTERDAY WAS YOUR BIRTHDAY. DAVID: IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A NATIONAL HOLIDAY. CHRISTINA: I ASKED YOU WHAT YOU WERE DOING YESTERDAY AND YOU SAID, HANGING OUT. DAVID: MARKING THE OCCASION. THANK YOU. I WOKE UP AT AN EARLY EVER TODAY. THAT'S AS FUN AS IT COULD BE WITHIN THE CONSTRAINTS OF MY PROFESSIONAL LIFE.

LISA: DID YOU HAVE A CAKE? DAVID: I DID HAVE A CAKE, AND ICE CREAM CAKE. IT WAS LIKE A HAAGEN-DAZS SPECTACULAR. [LAUGHTER] VANILLA. THERE WERE SPRINKLES IN MY NAME WAS WRITTEN ON IT. CHRISTINA: I NEED YOU TO BE A LITTLE MORE EXTRA. DAVID: IT WAS TASTY. THANK YOU TO MY FAMILY AND THE FOLKS AT HAAGEN-DAZS FOR MAKING THAT HAPPEN. [LAUGHTER] #NOTANAD. [LAUGHTER] LISA: AFTER NOT CELEBRATING YOUR BIRTHDAY YESTERDAY, WE DID HAVE THIS JOB.

CHRISTINA: A WHOLE BUNCH OF HEADLINES. LISA, WILL YOU GET US CAUGHT UP. LISA: WE HAVE NEW INFORMATION ABOUT THE COPILOT OF THE FLY DUBAI AIRPLANE WHO ALLEGEDLY STABBED HIS CAPTAIN AND TRY TO CRASH THE FLIGHT BOUND FOR ISRAEL. UAE INVESTIGATORS SAY HE ATTACKED THE PILOT IN THE COCKPIT WITH A CRASH ASKED AND TRIED TO SEIZE CONTROL OF THE PLANE’'S COMMAND. THEY CALLED IT A TERRORIST OPERATION. ASSOCIATED PRESS SAYS THE COPILOT IS AN OMANI NATIONAL AND HE HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY BANNED FROM FLYING BY OMAN OVER CONCERNS HE HAD RADICAL VIEWS.

FLY DUBAI STILL HIRED HIM. THE INVESTIGATION IS ONGOING. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SAID THE U.S. WILL NOT IMPOSE A DIESEL EXPORT MAN AFTER EUROPE AGREED TO RELEASE RESERVES. THE PRESIDENT SPOKE TO REPORTERS AFTER IT RALLY IN MOBILE, ALABAMA.

IT WON'T BE LONG. IT'S NOT GOING TO BE LONG. AND YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE OIL GO DOWN TO THE PRICE IT WAS BEFORE, MAYBE EVEN LOWER THAN I GOT IT AT THE BEGINNING. LISA: A GROUP OF SEVEN NATIONS AND ITS PARTNERS PLAN TO RELEASE AS MANY AS 100 MILLION BARRELS OF EMERGENCY OIL AND DIESEL STOCK. FRANCE'S PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON WHO PRESIDES THAT G7 THIS YEAR SAID THE RELEASE WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT FOUR MONTHS, WITH AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS ON DIESEL.

HE SAID IT IS INTENDED TO "SEND A QA OR SIGNAL TO THE MARKETS -- SEND A CLEAR SIGNAL TO THE MARKETS." INVESTIGATORS HAVE FOUND EVIDENCE THAT HACKERS ACCESSED THE PROPULSION SYSTEM OF AN OIL SUPERTANKER AS IT WAS APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST THIS SUMMER. SOURCES TELL BLOOMBERG OUTSIDERS GAINED TEMPORARY ACCESS TO THE DIGITAL SYSTEM ON THE SHIP. OFFICIALS ARE STILL LOOKING INTO HOW THE BREACH OCCURRED AND WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE.

MORE VIOLENCE OVERNIGHT IN GAZA CITY. FIVE PEOPLE WERE KILLED IN ISRAELI STRIKES THAT TORE HOLES THROUGH THE GROUND FLOOR OF A MULTISTORY BUILDING. AT THE HOSPITAL WHERE THE CASUALTIES WERE TAKEN. COWORKERS ARE SEARCHING THROUGH THE RUBBLE FOR SURVIVORS. KRISTA PIKE'S ATTORNEYS SAY SHE WAS PLACED ON THE VENTILATOR AND WAS UNCONSCIOUS AFTER HER FAILED EXECUTION IN TENNESSEE ON WEDNESDAY. HER LAWYERS SAY THEY BELIEVE A PROBLEM WITH THE IV LINE CAUSED THE DRUGS TO FLOW INTO HER BODY AND SET OF HER BLOODSTREAM.

THE GOVERNOR HAS ORDERED AN INDEPENDENT REVIEW. DAVID: THANK YOU VERY MUCH. RETURNING TO A CHRISTINA MENTIONED AT THE TOP, MARKETS FINISHED IN THE GREEN YESTERDAY AFTER THE SEPTEMBER JOBS REPORT INDICATED SOME COOLING IN THE U.S. LABOR MARKET. THE S&P, THE DOW, AND THE NASDAQ ALL FINISHED HIGHER, WHILE THE NASDAQ 100 HIT A NEW RECORD. CHRISTINA: PAYROLLS INCREASED 29,000 LAST MONTH, AND THOSE NUMBERS FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO MONTHS WERE REVISED BACK DOWN.

THAT EASED EXPECTATIONS OF A NEW INTEREST RATE HIKE WENT POLICY MAKERS MEET LATER THIS MONTH. EARLIER THIS WEEK, NEEL KASHKARI UNDERSCORED THE FED'S NEED TO BRING DOWN INFLATION.

WE WILL DO WHAT WE NEED TO DO TO GET INFLATION BACK DOWN TO THE TARGET. THE QUESTION IS ULTIMATELY HOW HIGH THE RATES HAVE TO GO. I DON'T KNOW THE QUESTION TO THAT -- I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER TO THAT. DAVID: WE CAUGHT UP WITH ANNA WONG. SHE BELIEVES THE FED WILL NOT HIKE RATES AGAIN IN OCTOBER OR DECEMBER.

WHEN YOU TALKED TO A LOT OF JOBSEEKERS OR YOUNG PEOPLE, PEOPLE FROM DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHICS, THE COMMON THREAD OF THE NARRATIVE IS TOO HARD TO FIND THE JOB. PART OF THAT REFLECTS HIRING IS VERY NARROW. IT HAS BEEN NARROW FOR THREE OR FOUR YEARS WHERE HIRING IS CONCENTRATED IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR. NOW YOU HAVE A LABOR MARKET THAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE IMPROVING, WHICH ON AGGREGATE IT IS, BUT IT IS IMPROVING IN THESE VERA -- VERY NARROW SECTORS, INCLUDING MANUFACTURING AND THE SHARE OF THE U.S.

LABOR FORCE THAT IS MANUFACTURING. IT IS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN 15%. YOU ARE SEEING SOME PICK IN MINING. NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE QUALIFIED TO BE A MINE WORKER. ANOTHER AREA WHERE THE LABOR FORCE IS EXPERIENCING A SHORTAGE, MANY COMPANIES ARE LOOKING TO HIRE IN TRUCKING. NOT MANY PEOPLE WOULD WANT TO BE TRUCK DRIVERS. WHERE THE JOB MARKET WOULD TYPICALLY HIRE A LOT OF PEOPLE IS WHITE COLOR AND THESE ARE THE WORKERS WHERE WE ARE SEEING SLOWDOWN IN HIRING BECAUSE OF AI.

IN THE FRIDAY'S JOB REPORT, WE ARE SEEING THE MONTHLY HIRING RATE FOR INFORMATION SECTOR, THE PROFESSIONAL BUSINESS SECTOR, FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES ARE CLOGGING IN NEGATIVE. THOSE OF THE DARK SPOTS OF THE ECONOMY. UNFORTUNATELY, THOSE DARK SPOTS ARE REALLY BROAD AND CONSTITUTE THE MAJORITY OF JOBS OUT THERE FOR MOST AMERICANS. DAVID: I WONDER IF WE COULD DRILL DOWN ON DEMOGRAPHICS. YOU MENTIONED THE NUMBERS ARE UNEVEN. SOMETHING THAT STOOD OUT TO ME IS WHEN YOU LOOK AT BLACK UNEMPLOYMENT, THAT IS NOW AT 7%.

THAT IS A SIZABLE JUMP FROM WHAT WE SAW IN THE LAST REPORT. ANNA: PART OF THE BLACK UNEMPLOYMENT INCREASE IS DUE PARTLY THAT LAST SUMMER, AND LAST SUMMER WAS THE BEGINNING OF THE PHASE OUT OF WORK REQUIREMENT FOR SNAP BENEFITS. SINCE THEN, THE WORK REQUIREMENT HAS SLOWLY IN DIFFERENT STATES COME TO PASS AS WELL. WE ARE SEEING PART OF THE JUMP IN PARTICIPATION AND JOBSEEKERS IN THAT DEMOGRAPHICS IS RELATED TO THAT. PART OF IT IS ALSO RELATED TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE.

IN BUSINESS CYCLES TYPICALLY WHEN YOU SEE THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN JOB PROSPECTS DECLINE IS WHEN THE ECONOMY IS SOFTENING. THIS IS WHY IF YOU RECALL TWO YEARS AGO, EVERY TIME THE FED MAKES A STATEMENT ABOUT THE OBJECTIVE, THEY WOULD HAVE THIS INCLUSIVE SENTENCE AS PART OF THEIR MANDATE. IN THE PANDEMIC, INSURING THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN EMPLOYMENT IS IMPROVING AS PART OF THE CONSIDERATION OF THE INTEREST RATE DECISION. NO LONGER TODAY.

YOU DON'T SEE THAT. THEY HAVE TAKEN THAT OUT. NONETHELESS, I THINK THAT IS IN FACT, THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS A PRETTY GOOD BAROMETER OF WHERE THE LABOR MARKET IS HEADING. IT IS TELLING YOU THAT IT IS NOT AS TIGHT AS THE HEADLINE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, WHICH IS FOUR POINT 2%, SUGGESTS. CHRISTINA: DO THESE NUMBERS HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WAGE GROWTH AND THE SALARIES FOR PEOPLE CURRENTLY IN THE LABOR FORCE? ANNA: THE AVERAGE EARNING GROWTH IN SEPTEMBER SURPRISED TO THE DOWNSIDE.

THE CONSENSUS WAS EXPECTING 0.3%. IN FACT, IT WAS ONLY 0.1%. AND THE REASON WHY, I THINK IT IS RELATED TO THE DISTRIBUTION, THE TYPE OF JOBS THAT'S AVAILABLE, WHERE FOR CERTAIN TYPES, THE CONSTRUCTION WORKERS, BLUE COLORS, HV