美国9月非农仅增2.9万人失业率升至4.2%
What a hiring slowdown signals about the state of the U.S. economy
核心宏观数据落地，直接修正市场对劳动力市场的预期，影响美联储政策路径判断。
GEOFF: WELCOME TO THE NEWSHOUR. WE BEGIN TONIGHT WITH A KEY ECONOMIC REPORT THAT SHOWS U.S. HIRING SLOWING IN SEPTEMBER. EMPLOYERS ADDED JUST 29,000 JOBS LAST MONTH, LESS THAN ECONOMISTS HAD EXPECTED. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TICKED UP TO 4.2%, FROM 4.1% IN AUGUST. EMPLOYMENT GAINS IN JULY AND AUGUST WERE ALSO REVISED DOWN BY A COMBINED 60,000 JOBS. AMNA: THE DISAPPOINTING REPORT HAS WIDE REACHING IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSUMER PRICES AND INTEREST RATES.
杰夫：欢迎收看《新闻一小时》。我们今晚从一个关键的经济报告开始，该报告显示美国9月份的招聘速度放缓。上个月雇主仅增加了2.9万个就业岗位，低于经济学家的预期。失业率从8月的4.1%微升至4.2%。7月和8月的就业增长数据也合计下调了6万份。阿姆纳：这份令人失望的报告对消费者物价和利率有着广泛的影响。
AND IT COMES A MONTH BEFORE AMERICANS HEAD TO THE POLLS FOR MIDTERM ELECTIONS. FOR MORE ON THIS, WE ARE JOINED BY BETH HAMMACK, PRESIDENT OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CLEVELAND. WELCOME TO THE NEWSHOUR. THANKS FOR JOINING US.
而且，这份报告发布在美国民众前往投票站参加中期选举的前一个月。为了进一步了解这一情况，我们连线克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克。欢迎做客《新闻一小时》，感谢您接受我们的采访。
THANKS FOR HAVING ME. IT'S MY PLEASURE. AMNA: ECONOMISTS ARE CALLING THIS A LOW HIGH OR LOW FIRE LABOR MARKET, WHAT ARE YOUR BIGGEST TAKEAWAYS FROM TODAY'S REPORT?
感谢您的邀请，这是我的荣幸。阿姆纳：经济学家们称这是一个“低高”或“低火”的劳动力市场，您对今天的报告最大的收获是什么？
I DON'T MAKE TOO MUCH OF ANY ONE INDIVIDUAL REPORT. THERE IS VARIABILITY IN THE MONTH BY MONTH NUMBERS THAT COME OUT OF THE PAYROLL STATISTICS. ON AVERAGE, WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS IS 41,000 NEW JOBS BEING CREATED EACH MONTH. THAT IS LARGELY IN LINE WITH MY ESTIMATE OF WHAT THE BREAK EVEN IS. WHICH IS BORNE OUT BY THE FACT THAT THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, WHICH I THINK IS THE SINGLE BEST MEASURE OF THE HEALTH OF THE LABOR MARKET, HAS CONTINUED TO BE STABLE AT A LOW NUMBER MOVED -- AT A LOW NUMBER.
我不会过分看重任何一个单独的报告。薪资统计数据中每月出现的数字存在波动性。平均而言，过去12个月我们看到的是每月创造4.1万个新岗位。这基本上符合我对盈亏平衡点的估计。这一点也得到了事实的支持，即我认为衡量劳动力市场健康状况的最单一最佳指标——失业率——一直稳定在一个较低的水平。
I RECOGNIZE IF YOU ARE A PERSON WHO IS SUFFERING FROM THAT WHO HAS BEEN PUT OUT OF WORK, THAT FEELS INCREDIBLY PAINFUL AND WE ARE VERY ATTUNED TO THAT BUT THIS NUMBER HAS BEEN VERY STABLE AND LOW AROUND MY ESTIMATE OF MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT FOR THE PAST YEAR. AMNA: TO YOUR POINT, IT DEPENDS ON WHO YOU ARE. SOME ARE SAYING IT IS WHAT YOU ARE IN THE LABOR MARKET THAT MATTERS MORE THAN USUAL RIGHT NOW. DO YOU HAVE ANY CONCERN ABOUT THE ECONOMY BEING TOO DEPENDENT ON CERTAIN SPECIFIC SECTORS, THINGS LIKE HEALTH AND SOCIAL SERVICES FOR JOB GROWTH?
我理解，如果您是一个遭受痛苦、已经失业的人，这种感觉会非常痛苦，我们对此也非常敏感。但在过去一年里，这个数字一直非常稳定且处于低位，接近我对充分就业的估计。阿姆纳：正如您所指出的，这取决于你是谁。有些人说，现在在劳动力市场中的身份比往常更重要。您是否担心经济过于依赖某些特定领域（如健康和社会服务）来推动就业增长？
WE ARE SEEING THE JOB GROWTH HAS BEEN BROADENING OUT. HEALTH IS CERTAINLY A BIG CENTER -- A BIG SECTOR IN THE ECONOMY. IT'S BEEN GROWING AS OUR POPULATION HAS BEEN AGING. WE'VE BEEN EXPECTING WE WOULD SEE NEW JOBS COMING. WE ARE SEEING JOBS BEING CREATED IN OTHER SEGMENTS AS WELL. WHEN I THINK ABOUT OUR DUAL MANDATE AND BOTH SIDES, I GIVE US A PRETTY GOOD MARK ON MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT SIDE OF THE MANDATE AND WHERE MY CONCERN IS REALLY IS ON THE INFLATION SIDE.
我们看到就业增长正在扩大。健康行业无疑是经济中的一个重要部门。随着人口老龄化，该行业一直在增长。我们一直预期会看到新岗位的涌现。我们也看到其他细分领域正在创造岗位。当我想到我们的双重使命及其两个方面时，我认为我们在使命中关于充分就业的那一面表现相当不错，而我真正担忧的是通货膨胀方面。
WE'VE BEEN MESSING ON THE INFLATION MANDATE FOR MORE THAN FIVE AND A HALF YEARS AND IT'S IMPORTANT WE ARE ABLE TO BRING INFLATION BACK DOWN TO HER TO -- TO OUR 2% OBJECTIVE. AMNA: WAGE GROWTH IS ALSO CATCHING FOLKS' ATTENTION. THE LOWEST ANNUAL LEVEL SINCE MAY OF 2021. BELOW THE CURRENT RATE OF INFLATION. WHAT DOES THAT LAGGING WAGE GROWTH MEAN FOR THE AVERAGE AMERICAN IN THE FACE OF INFLATION?
我们一直在应对通胀使命，已经持续了五年半以上，重要的是我们要能够将通胀率降回到——降到我们的2%目标。阿娜：工资增长也引起了人们的关注。这是自2021年5月以来的最低年度水平，低于当前的通胀率。面对通胀，这种滞后的工资增长对普通美国人意味着什么？
WHAT I HEAR WHEN I'M OUT OF THE DISTRICT TALKING INDIVIDUALS IS HOW DIFFICULT IT'S BEEN WHEN WAGES HAVE NOT BEEN KEEPING UP WITH INFLATION AND THE PRICE OF GOODS. WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT THESE INDIVIDUALS -- IN A ROUNDTABL
当我走出选区与个人交谈时，我听到的是，当工资跟不上通胀和商品价格时，情况有多么困难。这意味着这些个人——在圆桌会议上
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力