特斯拉三季度交付48.65万辆超预期,EV业务趋稳
Tesla’s EV Sales Top Estimates With Car Business Stabilizing | Bloomberg Intelligence
特斯拉季度交付数据落地且超预期,结合宏观竞争格局变化,为评估其估值逻辑提供关键事实锚点。
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Let's talk a little Tesla. It's been a while since we talked about Tesla. It's almost like it's fallen a little bit out of the zeitgeist, as Tom Keane would say. Maybe it's because it's been eclipsed by, if you want to talk about Elon Musk, you talk about SpaceX. But Tesla delivered some better than expected um cars during the most recent period. Stocks up 5% today, but it's down about 17% year to date. Uh so they reported better than expected sales for the third quarter, delivering 486,500 vehicles worldwide.
我们来聊聊特斯拉。我们已经有一段时间没聊特斯拉了。就像汤姆·基恩会说的那样,它似乎有点脱离了时代精神。也许是因为它被 eclipsed( overshadowed)了,如果你想谈埃隆·马斯克,就得谈SpaceX。但在最近一个时期,特斯拉交付了一些超出预期的汽车。股价今天上涨5%,但年初至今下跌约17%。他们报告第三季度销售额超出预期,全球交付486,500辆汽车。
Craig Trudeell, Global Autos editor. It's it's front and center for him uh at Bloomberg News. He joins us live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Craig, um so they did had a pretty good quarter in terms of deliveries. There used to be a time when that was the number everybody really hung on here. What's going on at Tesla these days? Yeah, it's it it uh is difficult to cover because it's sort of it feels like Groundhog Day a little bit where uh this is a company where people increasingly care less about the you know here and now business and care much more about uh you know the future and you know can Elon sort of make good on all of uh this hype that he's built for you know humanoid robots and uh the AI business.
克雷格·特鲁德尔,彭博新闻社全球汽车编辑。他在彭博新闻社处于核心位置。他在这里的彭博互动经纪演播室与我们现场连线。克雷格,嗯,他们在交付量方面度过了相当不错的一季度。曾经有一段时间,这是大家真正关注的数字。特斯拉最近发生了什么?是的,这很难报道,因为感觉有点像《土拨鼠之日》,人们越来越不关心眼前的业务,而更关心未来,以及埃隆能否兑现他为人类机器人和AI业务所营造的所有炒作。
Uh in the meantime, you know, they're still in the business of of making and selling cars. And uh it's also, you know, not a whole lot going on there in terms of, you know, dramatic moves, at least in the last couple of quarters. You have had uh you know, much better expected uh deliveries, but uh it is a company that's kind of in a holding pattern where, you know, when they do have a good quarter, it's you know, uh roughly 500,000 units, but they've yet to to crack that threshold.
与此同时,他们仍然从事制造和销售汽车的业务。而且,至少在最近的几个季度里,在这方面也没有太多重大举措。你确实看到了远超预期的交付量,但这家公司处于一种观望状态,当他们有一个好季度时,大约是50万辆,但他们尚未突破这一门槛。
And uh that's you know happened now kind of repeatedly just the last 3 years call it.
而这在过去三年中已经反复发生。
Yeah. It it just feels like there's not a whole lot of excitement when it comes to Tesla vehicles. They only have um three consumer models now. Um Model Y and Model 3 and and the Cybertruck if you're into that. If you're if you're if you're into driving a car that looks like uh it's from the Minecraft movie. But in any case um the car sales are still really really important to Tesla the company. Right.
是的。感觉在特斯拉汽车方面,并没有太多的兴奋点。他们现在只有三款消费者车型。嗯,Model Y、Model 3,还有如果你感兴趣的话,就是 Cybertruck。如果你喜欢开一辆看起来像《我的世界》电影里的车的话。但无论如何,汽车销量对特斯拉公司来说仍然非常重要。对吧。
Hugely. Yeah. and and uh they do have an energy business that uh is important and uh is kind of an AI play right uh you know and they've they've been selling an awful lot of uh uh battery storage uh systems actually to Elon's uh other company SpaceX. Uh so it's a little bit of uh you know uh from one hand uh of Elon's empire to the other. Um that that of course uh though is is still a fraction of of the amount of uh revenue and the the business that they bring in.
非常大。是的。而且他们确实有一个能源业务,这个业务很重要,也可以说是人工智能方面的布局,你知道的。实际上,他们向埃隆的另一家公司 SpaceX 出售了大量的电池储能系统。所以这在某种程度上可以说是从埃隆帝国的这一手到另一手。当然,尽管如此,这仍然只占他们带来的收入和业务的一小部分。
I mean it generates cash flow. That's what they need.
我的意思是,它产生了现金流。这就是他们所需要的。
Absolutely. And and uh you know this is a a company that I I think you know is benefiting from the fact that there's been some pullback in terms of uh competition here in the US market where uh Ford and Stalantis I would say in particular really sort of re have rethought electric vehicle plans in light of uh the Trump administration uh pulling support and and incentives a year ago. Uh so so there's maybe a little bit more room to breathe but also a shrinking uh you know market for for EVs in the US.
绝对如此。而且你知道,我认为这家公司正受益于美国市场竞争有所退潮的事实,特别是福特和 Stellantis,我想说的是,他们在一年前特朗普政府撤回支持和激励措施的情况下,重新思考了电动汽车计划。所以也许有了一点喘息的空间,但同时也面临着美国电动汽车市场萎缩的情况。
Things are also just getting more and more intense by the day in in China and even uh the the very competitive uh Chinese you know manufacturers are having a hard time there this year which is I think maybe an underappreciated story.
在中国,情况也日益激烈,即使是竞争激烈的中国制造商今年在那里也感到艰难,我认为这可能是一个被低估的故事。
All right. Talk to us about Tesla and its presence in China. Where are we now? Where where did it come from? What's the future for this thing?
好的。跟我们谈谈特斯拉在中国的现状。我们现在处于什么位置?它从何而来?这件事的未来如何?
I mean you know they they really uh were sort of had the the red carpet rolled out uh for them. Uh I I think there was a sort of view that uh uh you know on the part of the CCP if we bring in this really competitive uh company from from outside uh that you know kind of gets everybody uh motivated to to move faster a and uh be much more competitive. It might raise the game for the domestic industry. That really uh proved to to be a great strategy because Tesla uh it was a win-win for Tesla and and China. you saw the rise of of the likes of BYD.
我的意思是,你知道,他们当时受到了红地毯般的欢迎。我认为中共方面有一种观点,即如果我们引进这家极具竞争力的外国公司,它能激励大家加快步伐并变得更具竞争力,从而提升国内行业的水平。事实证明这是一个非常成功的策略,因为这对特斯拉和中国来说都是双赢的局面。你看到了比亚迪等企业的崛起。
Uh J uh is now you know uh much more relevant on a global stage. Uh you you've also seen uh kind of even in the tech space some EV uh you know noise being made. uh but but it is absolutely the case that a lot of those uh domestic players have kind of uh surpassed uh Tesla uh both you know both in in that market and even in in Europe where you've seen uh you you've seen real traction on the part of those those domestic manufacturers.
嗯,J uh 现在在全球舞台上无疑更加重要。嗯,你们也看到,即使在科技领域,一些电动汽车(EV)uh 的噪音也被制造出来了。但毫无疑问的是,许多这些国内参与者已经超越了特斯拉 uh,无论是在那个市场,还是在欧洲,你们已经看到那些国内制造商获得了真正的 traction。
So pick up on what you were just saying about how the EV market in China is slowing down quite a bit and even the Chinese manufacturers are now struggling to keep up the pace of sales. Yeah, it's a a little bit has to do with uh some incremental pullback in in state incentives. Uh I think it also has to do uh with with um kind of the the property market and some of the pressures that we've seen. Uh I think just in general there's there's uh you know a little bit of headscratching going on because uh maybe some of those factors understandably would lead to some pressure but we we've been seeing uh you know on the order of 20% you know month after month of of year-over-year decline and that's really substantial for for a car market the size uh of China.
所以,接上你刚才说的关于中国电动汽车市场放缓以及中国制造商现在难以保持销售速度的话题。是的,这在一定程度上与国家对激励措施的一些逐步撤回有关。我认为这也与房地产市场和我们所看到的一些压力有关。我认为总的来说,人们有些困惑,因为也许这些因素可以理解地会导致一些压力,但我们一直在看到每月同比下滑约 20% 的情况,这对于中国汽车市场的规模来说确实非常显著。
It is you know far and away uh bigger than anywhere else in the world. And so to see uh you know this industry with so many companies that that uh rely on that uh that market for volume uh move that that substantially I think uh it's actually reverberating uh you know I I think especially for like a Volkswagen and and is a major factor in why they're having so much issue.
它远远大于世界其他任何地方。因此,看到这样一个行业,其中许多公司依赖该市场来维持销量,却出现了如此大幅度的变动,我认为这实际上产生了回响,尤其是对于大众汽车而言,这也是他们面临诸多问题的主要因素之一。
All right. You are my Michigan State contact my only I have two Michigan State contacts. Um can you guys ever be relevant in the Big 10 football again?
好吧。你是我的密歇根州立大学联系人,我只有两个密歇根州立大学的联系人。你们在十大联盟(Big 10)橄榄球中还能重新变得重要吗?
And it's not just it's not just you guys. It's Rutgers, it's Maryland, it's there's, you know,
而且不仅仅是你们。还有罗格斯大学、马里兰大学,你知道的,
I missed I miss Mark Dantonio. Uh those were the days we had like a single year with uh with with Tucker uh who Mel Tucker who who uh you know faded fast. Uh
我错过了,我怀念马克·唐托尼奥。那是我们拥有像塔克这样的单年教练的日子,梅尔·塔克(Mel Tucker),他很快就被淡忘了。嗯,
but it's just a question of resources. Is Michigan
但这只是资源的问题。密歇根
State can they do it? I think it it helps to have uh you know a former walk-on basketball player who now runs a mortgage company uh cutting checks, but that seems to be working much better for the basketball program than the than the football program.
州立大学能做到吗?我认为拥有一位曾经作为非奖学金篮球运动员、如今经营抵押贷款公司并签发支票的人会有所帮助,但这似乎对篮球项目比对橄榄球项目更有效。
Question, Paul, can be relevant.
问题,保罗,可以变得重要。
Well, Craig can take the big question here. Absolutely. Exactly. I'm of the opinion that of all the big four power conferences, there's three or four teams for and then everybody else is just an also run. That's it.
好吧,Craig可以来回答这个大问题。绝对可以。没错。我的观点是,在四大强联盟中,有三到四支球队是真正的竞争者,而其他球队都只是陪衬。就是这样。
But Indiana, of course, was the big exception last year. So,
但印第安纳大学去年显然是个巨大的例外。所以,
that's exactly right. Why can't Michigan State do an Indiana? Why can't do an Indiana? You know, so you know,
这完全正确。为什么密歇根州立大学不能像印第安纳那样表现呢?为什么他们不能做到呢?你知道的,所以你知道,
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Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Let's talk a little bit about what's going on with consumerf facing companies. Um, we know that consumers aren't feeling great about the economy right now. The consumer confidence data showed that. But do we spend, do we not spend in that environment? It kind of depends. Um, and you look at a company like Nike, which is very much dependent on consumer sentiment.
在您获取播客的任意平台按需收听,或在YouTube上观看我们的直播。让我们稍微谈谈那些面向消费者的公司目前的情况。嗯,我们知道消费者对当前的经济状况感觉不佳。消费者信心数据证实了这一点。但在这样的环境下,我们是消费还是不消费呢?这在很大程度上取决于具体情况。嗯,你可以看看耐克(Nike)这样的公司,它非常依赖消费者情绪。
Um, the stock is down 5%. And Paul, this all ties back to this restructuring t
嗯,股价下跌了5%。保罗,这一切都归结于这次重组t
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