法国预算危机加剧致债市抛售，投资者撤离欧洲市场
France Budget Crisis Deepens as Investors Head for the Exit
聚焦法国主权债务危机这一宏观结构性风险及其对股债汇市场的连锁反应，提供关键资产定价逻辑与数据锚点，值得宏观与多资产配置读者重点关注。
LIVE FROM BRUSSELS THIS IS BLOOMBERG "DAYBREAK EUROPE." I’M STEPHEN CARROLL WITH YOUR TOP STORIES. TREASURIES HOLD GAINS AS EUROPE’S FIRST SELLOFF WILL PREVIEW A DOUBLE DOSE OF ECONOMIC INFLATION. THE PENTAGON IS SET TO DEPLOY ANOTHER AIRCRAFT CARRIER AND MORE THAN 10,000 TROOPS TO THE MIDDLE EAST AS PRESIDENT TRUMP WARNS AN ESCALATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. AND ANTHROPIC IS SET TO GO AHEAD WITH THEIR BLOCKBUSTER I.P.O.
来自布鲁塞尔的直播，这里是彭博社《欧洲早间新闻》。我是斯蒂芬·卡罗尔，为您播报头条新闻。美债持稳上涨，因为欧洲的抛售潮将预示经济通胀的双重冲击。五角大楼准备向中东部署另一艘航空母舰和超过1万名士兵，特朗普总统警告称中期选举后局势可能升级。Anthropic 计划推进其重磅 IPO。
BEFORE THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. GOOD MORNING. HANG SENG INDEX BACK OPEN AFTER YESTERDAY’S HOLIDAY ASK SLIDING AS A RESULT. THOSE HIGHER BORROWING COSTS WEIGHING THERE. EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES AFTER THE SLOUCH WE SAW IN EUROPEAN EQU EQUITIES YESTERDAY AMID THAT BOND SELLOFF. A FAIRLY STABLE OPEN THIS MORNING AND A BIT OF POSITIVITY ON WALL STREET AS WE LOOK AT THE ALL IMPORTANT JOBS DATA LATER. OIL PRICES HOLDING ON TO MUCH OF THEIR TWO DAYS OF GAINS.
在感恩节假期之前。早上好。恒生指数昨日因假日休市后重新开盘，受此影响大幅下挫。高企的借贷成本正在施压。欧洲股指期货在昨日欧洲股市疲软、债券遭抛售之后，今早开盘相对平稳，华尔街也出现些许积极迹象，因为我们稍后将关注至关重要的就业数据。油价仍保有前两天的大部分涨幅。
BRENT CRUDE IS STILL AT OVER $102 A BARREL THIS MORNING. THE EURO DROPPED BY 1% AGAINST THE DOLLAR AMID THE BROADER MARKET SELLOFF. AND 10-YEAR TREASURIES, WHICH SAW A HAVEN HOLIDAY YESTERDAY. WE SEE THE 10-YEAR YIELD IN MORNING HOVERING AROUND 5 AT ANY TIME 25%. EXPECTING AN UPTICK. THE U.S. JOBS REPORT. AND THE HEADS OF THE GERMAN, AFRICAN-AMERICAN, AND FINNISH CENTRAL BANKS. THAT’S ALL TO COME. LET’S GET YOU SET UP FOR THE DAY AHEAD. ♪ ASIAN BONDS ARE TRACKING A RALLY STATESIDE BUT STOCKS ARE STILL UNDER SOME PRESSURE THIS MORNING.
布伦特原油今早每桶价格仍高于 102 美元。欧元兑美元下跌 1%，这是更广泛市场抛售的一部分。10 年期美债昨日曾作为避险资产受到追捧。我们看到 10 年期收益率今早徘徊在 5.25% 附近，预计将出现反弹。美国就业报告以及德国、非洲裔（注：此处原文疑似口误或识别错误，结合语境可能指其他央行行长，但按规则保留原意或直译）和芬兰央行行长的讲话也将陆续公布。让我们为您做好迎接新一天的准备。♪ 亚洲债券正追踪美国的涨势，但股票今早仍面临一定压力。
LET’S CHECK IN WITH WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG. WINNIE: GOOD MORNING. WE WERE SEEING ASIA BONDS HERE GAINING ACROSS THE REGION FROM JAPAN TO AUSTRALIA TO NEW ZEALAND, TRACKING THE MOVES WE SAW IN THE U.S. TREASURIES OVERNIGHT. INVESTORS ARE ROTATING INTO THESE SAFE HAVENS GIVEN THE SELLOFF WE SEE IN THE EUROPEAN BONDS AND WE CAN SEE THAT HERE. THE LIKES OF JGB GAINING. WE HAVE HONG KONG COMING BACKDROPLINE AFTER THE HOLIDAY YESTERDAY.
让我们连线驻香港的许慧欣。许慧欣：早上好。我们观察到亚洲债券在整个地区从日本到澳大利亚再到新西兰均有所上涨，追踪了隔夜美国国债的走势。鉴于欧洲债券市场的抛售，投资者正在转向这些避险资产，我们可以在此看到这一点。日本国债（JGB）等也在上涨。香港市场在昨日假期后今日重新开盘。
THE BENCHMARK HERE DOWN ABOUT 2.5%, HAVING ITS WORST DAY SINCE MARCH. A LOT OF THE FACTOR WEIGHING ON SENTIMENT. HIGHER YIELDS RAISING THE BORROWING COSTS OF TECH COMPANIES PLUS THE UNDERWHELMING RESULT QUILT COMES TO THE NEW STILL LULLS PACKAGE FROM BEIJING BUT WE’RE SEEING FINANCIALS LEADING DECLINES WITH THE LIKES OF HSBC AND CHARTER BOTH DOWN ABOUT 5%. HIKER YIELDS ARE GOOD FOR ASIA FINANCIALS BUT AT THIS POINT INVESTORS SEEM TO BE MORE WORRIED ABOUT THEIR CREDIT RISK AND, THAT PLUS HOW WE’VE LEARNED THAT THERE POTENTIALLY MIGHT BE A TAX HIKE WHEN IT COMES TO BANKS FROM THE U.K.
基准指数下跌约 2.5%，创下三月以来最差单日表现。许多因素压制了市场情绪。收益率上升推高了科技公司的借贷成本，加上北京推出的刺激方案效果不及预期，市场依然低迷。但我们看到金融业领跌，汇丰银行和渣打银行均下跌约 5%。收益率上升对亚洲金融业有利，但在目前阶段，投资者似乎更担心其信用风险，此外我们还了解到英国可能对银行加税。
GOVERNMENT SO THAT IS ALSO WEIGHING ON THE SENTIMENT. WE LOOK AT THE BROADER ASIA MARKET. OVERALL THE HIGHER YIELDS, ELEVATED OIL PRICES, GEOPOLITICAL RISK AND A BIT OF A CAUTIOUS MOVE AHEAD OF THE U.S. JOBS DATA ALL WEIGHING ON ASIAN STOCKS. WITH THE ASIA HEADED FOR ITS WORKWEEK SINCE JULY. THE TOKYO C.P.I. NUMBERS SAW A SHARP INCREASE. THIS IS STILL PUTTING THE BANK OF JAPAN ON THE TRACK TO RAISE RATES FURTHER. YEN HOVERING JUST BELOW THAT 158 LEVEL AGAINST THE DOLLAR.
政府方面的因素也在影响市场情绪。我们观察更广泛的亚洲市场。整体而言，收益率走高、油价高企、地缘政治风险以及在美国就业数据公布前采取谨慎态度，这些因素都在压制亚洲股市。亚洲市场自七月以来正迎来其工作周。东京的CPI数据显示出大幅上升。这仍然使日本银行处于进一步加息的轨道上。日元兑美元汇率再次徘徊在158关口下方。
BACK TO YOU, STEPHEN. STEPHEN: WINNIE HSU, THANK YOU. TREASURIES ARE HOLDING ON TO GAINS AFTER THEY BOUNCED BACK IN YESTERDAY’S SESSION. WORRY OVER FRANCE’S DEBT. LET’S BRING IN OUR MARKETS EXECUTIVE EDITOR FOR MORE. MARKETS CAME OFF DURING THE PEAK OF THEIR SESSION YESTERDAY BUT IS THAT PRESSURE ON EUROPEAN DEBT AS STRONG GOING INTO TODAY?
回到演播室，斯蒂芬。斯蒂芬：许温妮，谢谢。国债在昨日交易反弹后继续持稳。人们担心法国的债务问题。让我们请我们的市场执行编辑带来更多分析。市场在昨日交易高峰过后有所回落，但进入今天，欧洲债务的压力是否依然强劲？
IT’S GOING TO STAY STRONG. WHILE TREASURIES RECOVERED YESTERDAY, FRENCH LONG END BONDS FINISHED NEAR THEIR LOWS AND FUTURES ARE ON THE. SO SIDE STILL TODAY. WE HAVE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION NEXT APRIL AND IT’S HARD TO SEE THE STRESS ALLEVIATING BEFORE THAT. THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR FRANCE ARE VERY BAD. THEY HAVE A GROWING DEBT PILE. THEY’RE TALKING ABOUT CUTTING THE BUDGET DEFICIT. THE E.U. TARGET IS 3% SO THEY STILL HAVE A LARGE DEBT DEFICIT WITH A GROWING DEBT PILE.
压力将会持续强劲。虽然国债在昨日有所恢复，但法国长期债券收盘接近低点，期货也处于低位。因此，今天这一侧（指压力）依然存在。明年四月将举行总统选举，很难看到在那之前压力会得到缓解。法国的基本面非常糟糕。他们的债务负担日益加重。他们正在讨论削减预算赤字。欧盟的目标是3%，所以他们仍有巨大的债务赤字和不断增长的债务堆积。
THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE JUST GETTING WORSE AND WORSE FOR FRANCE. NEVER MIND THE INFLATION PROBLEM. I DO THINK THAT FRANCE WILL STAY UNDER PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND. LAST TWO BUDGETS WHICH THEY’RE TRYING TO PASS AT THE MOMENT TOPPLED THE GOVERNMENT ULTIMATELY. SO THAT’S THE RISK FOR THAT BUNT. I THINK WE’VE SEEN MOST OF THE PAIN OVER THE LAST MONTH OR TWO BUT NOT THE EXTREME JUST YET. I EXPECT IN BUDGET TO ULTIMATELY MASS BUT I EXPECT IT TO PASS VIA MORE STRESS ON THE FRENCH BOND MARKET TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
法国的基本面正变得越来越糟。更不用说通胀问题了。我认为法国在整个周末都将承受压力。他们目前试图通过的最后两次预算案最终导致政府垮台。这就是针对该债券的风险。我认为过去一两个月我们已经看到了大部分痛苦，但尚未达到极端程度。我预计该预算案最终会通过，但我预期它将通过今天到下周对法国债券市场的更大压力来通过。
MEANWHILE, WE’VE HAD SOME MIXED ESTIMATES OUT OF THE FED. LORI LOGAN CALLING FOR AT LEAST TWO MORE RATE HIKES BUT TWO OTHERS SAYING POLICYMAKERS NEED MORE TIME BEFORE MOVING. HOW IMPORTANT IS TODAY’S JOB PRINT GOING TO BE FOR THE OUTLOOK FOR THE FED?
与此同时，美联储内部出现了一些分歧的估计。洛里·洛根呼吁至少再加息两次，但其他两位官员表示决策者在采取行动前需要更多时间。今天的就业数据对于美联储的前景有多重要？
IT’S A BIG DAY AHEAD OF US. OBVIOUSLY WE CARE BUT IT’S NOT GOING TO BE THE ONE THAT REALLY DISEASE THE FED. IT MATTERS VERY MUCH FOR TODAY’S SESSION. JOBS AREN’T THE BIG STRESS IN THE U.S. IT’S INFLATION SO THEREFORE IT WOULD TAKE A REAL SHOCK TODAY FOR US STILL TO BE TALKING ABOUT IT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE VERY NEAR SHORT TERM, THE BIGGER MOVE IN THE MARKET WILL BE IF IT IS A STRONG PRINT TODAY. THAT’S BECAUSE OF WHAT’S HAPPENED IN BOND MARKETS.
我们面前有一个大日子。显然我们在意，但这不会真正左右美联储的决策。它对今天的交易时段非常重要。就业并不是美国的主要压力，通胀才是，因此今天必须出现真正的意外冲击，否则到下周中我们仍会谈论它。在非常近的短期内，市场更大的波动将取决于今天的数据是否强劲。这是因为债券市场发生了什么。
BOND MARKETS REALLY DON’T WANT TO SEE MORE HOT DATA. MORE SUGGESTIONS THAT THE U.S. ECONOMY IS HOLDING UP WONDERFULLY WITH THESE HIGH YIELDS AND NEEDS EVEN HIGHER YIELDS. BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS ANNA WONG IS ARCING FAR SOFTER PRINT SO I DON’T THINK THERE’S MUCH HEDGE AHEAD OF THE NUMBER. STEPHEN: THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US. A U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS THAT THE PENTAGON IS DEPLOYING AN ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT CARRIER AND 10,000 SAILORS AND MARINE TONIGHT GULF.
债券市场真的不希望看到更多过热数据。更多迹象表明美国经济在高收益率下依然表现良好，甚至需要更高的收益率。彭博经济学的安娜·黄预测数据将远弱于预期，所以我认为在该数据公布前并没有太多对冲需求。斯蒂芬：非常感谢你加入我们。一位美国官员表示，五角大楼今晚将向海湾地区增派一艘航空母舰和1万名水兵及海军陆战队员。
THE U.S. IS THEODORE ROOSEVELT IS SAID TO HAVE LEFT ITS SAN DIEGO HOME IMPORTANT TO TRAVEL TO THE MIDDLE EAST. AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP AGAIN SAID A RAMP-UP IN MILITARY ACTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER NEXT MONTH’S MIDTERMS. LET’S BRING IN JOHN FOR MORE ON THIS STORY. HOW SIGNIFICANT ARE THESE MOVES FROM THE U.S.? JOHN: THE IDEA IS TO GIVE TRUMP MORE FIREPOWER AND FLEXIBILITY IN THE REGION. THREE CARRIER GROUPS IS WHAT THE U.S.
西奥多·罗斯福号据称已离开其圣迭戈基地，前往中东。此前特朗普总统再次表示，在下个月中期选举后可能会加大军事行动力度。让我们请约翰带来更多关于此报道的细节。这些来自美国的举动有多重要？约翰：此举旨在为特朗普在该地区提供更多火力支持和灵活性。美国在针对伊朗的行动初期部署了三艘航母编队。
HAD AT THE START OF THE CAMPAIGN AGAINST IRAN. TRUMP IS TRYING TO SHOW THAT POST ELECTION THINGS COULD CHANGE AND THE THREE WOULDN’T BE THERE IF THEY DO ALL APPEAR AT THE SAME TIME, IT WOULDN’T BE THERE UNTIL NOVEMBER. THE WORRIES ARE THAT THIS WOULD CREATE MORE STRAINS ON THE U.S. NAVY WHICH IS BEING DEPLOYED FOR A LONG TIME IN THIS REGION. ALSO, THE MORE NAVAL ASSETS IN THE REGION, THE MORE CHANCES THEY WILL BE CONSIDERED TARGETS.
特朗普试图展示选举后局势可能发生变化，如果这三艘航母同时出现，它们要到11月才会到位。人们担心这会给长期在该地区部署的美国海军带来更大压力。此外，该地区海军资产越多，它们被视为目标的可能性就越大。
IN PLACES LIKE JAPAN WHERE I AM NOW YOU HAVE A DRAWDOWN OF ASSETS. ONE OF THE CARRIER GROUPS, THE WASHINGTON, IS BASED IN JAPAN AND OFTEN MONITORS THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION SO IT’S A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE AND THE IDEA IS FLEXIBILITY MOST MIDTERM ELECTIONS. STEPHEN: THE IRAN WAR, THOUGH, AND HIGH ENERGY PRICES ARE HANGING OVER THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AHEAD OF THOSE LOUISIANA TECH. WE’VE SEEN PRESIDENT TRUMP BEGINNING TO HIT THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL.
在我所在的日本等地，资产正在撤出。其中一个航母编队华盛顿号驻扎在日本，经常监控印太地区，因此这是一个显著的增加，其理念是提供灵活性，尤其是在中期选举期间。斯蒂芬：然而，伊朗战争和高昂的能源价格一直笼罩着共和党，就在路易斯安那理工大学活动之前。我们已经看到特朗普总统开始踏上竞选之路。
WHAT IS HIS PITCH TO VOTERS AMID ALL OF THIS? JOHN: TRUMP WAS OUT DOING HIS TRADE NARC RALLIES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME. HE WAS IN NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HE TRIED TO SAY THAT THE PROBLEM IS THE MESSAGING, THAT THE ECONOMY IS DOING MUCH BETTER THAN IT’S BEING PERCEIVED TO BE DOING. THE PROBLEMS, HE’S REPEATED BEFORE, THE PROBLEMS STEM FROM THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION AND IF THE DEMOCRATS RETURN TO POWER, THEY’RE GOING TO SPEND ALL THEIR TIME IMPEACHING HIM AND NOT MAKING THINGS BETTER BUT DIESEL BRYCE ARE UP ABOUT 70% SINCE THE START OF THE WAR IN THESE NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA LOCATIONS.
在这一切之中，他对选民的竞选主张是什么？约翰：特朗普很久以来首次亲自出席他的贸易和反 нар rallies 集会。他去了北德克萨斯州和俄克拉荷马州。他试图说问题是信息传达的问题，经济状况比人们感知到的要好得多。问题，他以前重复过，问题源于拜登政府，如果民主党重新掌权，他们将把所有时间花在弹劾他身上，而不是改善局面，但柴油价格自战争开始以来在北德克萨斯州和俄克拉荷马州的这些地点上涨了约70%。
PEOPLE TRAVEL GREAT DISTANCES. HOW MUCH THEY SPEND PUTTING GAS IN THEIR CAR WEIGHS ON VOTERS AND TRUMP WASN’T IN SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WHERE THERE ARE COMPETITIVE DISTRICTS. HE WAS INSTEAD? VERY REPUBLICAN-HEAVY AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA CAMPAIGNING WITH THE REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR CANDIDATE MAZY. TRUMP WON ALL OF OKLAHOMA’S COUNTIES IN THE 2024 ELECTION BUT SOUTH TEXAS, A LOT OF SWING VOTERS AND HISPANIC POPULATION.
人们长途跋涉。他们给汽车加油花的钱让选民感到压力，而特朗普今天没有去南德克萨斯州，那里有竞争激烈的选区。他反而是在北德克萨斯州和俄克拉荷马州共和党占主导的地区与共和党州长候选人马齐一起竞选。特朗普在2024年选举中赢得了俄克拉荷马州的所有县，但南德克萨斯州有很多摇摆选民和西班牙裔人口。
THE AREA NEAR BROWNSVILLE IS A TOSSUP. C.D. VANCE WAS FROM A FEW WEEKS AGO. IT COULD BE IMPLICATION FOR THE STATEWIDE RAILSES IN TEXAS. STEPHEN: HOW ABOUT THE BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE? JOHN: THE
布朗斯维尔附近的地区是一个势均力敌的选区。C.D.万斯是几周前的事。这可能会对全州范围的铁路建设产生影响。斯蒂芬：关于众议院和参议院的控制权争夺战怎么样？约翰：
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力