法国公布540亿欧元预算削减计划,债市利差创2012年来新高
‘Hero’ Pilot Saves Plane, French Budget Peril, $30,000 Sheepdogs | Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe...
法国预算落地是明确的宏观政策事实,且直接导致主权债利差显著走阔,影响欧洲资产定价与风险偏好。建议关注法债波动对欧元及欧股板块的传导效应。
[music] Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Daily podcast. Good morning. It's Thursday, the 1st of October. I'm Caroline [music] Hepker in London
[音乐] 彭博音频工作室,播客,广播,新闻。这是《彭博每日》播客。早上好。今天是10月1日,星期四。我是卡罗琳·[音乐] 赫普克,在伦敦
and I'm Nathan Hager. Coming up today, midair attack. Passengers overpower a pilot after a stabbing in the cockpit with the jet plunging [music] 14,000 ft. France hunts for 54 billion euros as soaring debt and borrowing costs pile on the pressure for the country's last budget before a presidential election.
我是内森·黑格。今天稍后播出:空中袭击。乘客在一架喷气式飞机驾驶舱发生刺伤事件后制服了一名飞行员,飞机骤降[音乐]14,000英尺。法国寻求540亿欧元资金,随着债务和借贷成本飙升,该国在总统选举前的最后一份预算案面临巨大压力。
Plus, why elite $30,000 sheep dogs are putting a tiny UK town on the global map.
此外,为何价值3万美元的精英级牧羊犬让英国一个小镇跻身全球地图。
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
让我们从头条新闻综述开始。
A pilot is being hailed as a hero after being repeatedly stabbed in the cockpit by a colleague. This happened on a passenger jet that was carrying 170 people from Dubai to Tel Aviv. During the struggle, the plane plunged more than 14,000 ft in less than 30 seconds. This passenger was on board.
一名飞行员因在驾驶舱内多次被同事刺伤而被赞为英雄。这起事件发生在一架载有170人的客机从迪拜飞往特拉维夫的途中。在搏斗过程中,飞机在不到30秒的时间内骤降超过14,000英尺。这位乘客当时就在机上。
Suddenly, the aircraft dropped like a massive drop down like a roller coaster and we saw that there was a crowd and riots on the front next to the cockpit. Well, passengers managed to overpower the attacker. Two offduty pilots took control of the plane. It made an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia where the attacker is now being questioned by local authorities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says almost all the passengers were Israelis.
突然,飞机像过山车一样剧烈下坠,我们看到驾驶舱前方有一群人和骚乱。好吧,乘客们设法制服了袭击者。两名停飞飞行员接管了飞机控制权。飞机在沙特阿拉伯紧急降落,当地当局正在对袭击者进行讯问。以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡表示,几乎所有乘客都是以色列人。
His words are spoken through an interpreter.
他的发言是通过翻译进行的。
We're in continuous contact with the renment authorities to ensure the ongoing safety of the passengers. I have instructed the security systems to prepare for additional potential threats. And now this incident comes just weeks before Netanyahu seeks re-election on a promise of tougher security. This attempted hijacking could help tilt undecided voters in his direction. In the UK, MI5 has issued an unprecedented warning about a Chinese espionage threat targeting Britain's AI research.
我们与政府当局保持持续联系,以确保乘客的持续安全。我已指示安全系统准备应对其他潜在威胁。如今,在内塔尼亚胡以加强安全承诺寻求连任仅几周之际,发生了这一事件。这次未遂劫机事件可能会帮助动摇不定的选民倒向他这边。在英国,军情五处(MI5)就针对英国人工智能研究的中国间谍威胁发出了前所未有的警告。
The security service accused China's General Technology Research Institute of spying through more than a 100 UK linked academics. China's embassy in the UK dismissed the claims as pure fabrication. It comes as open AAI accused Moonshot of a widescale effort to extract data from its GPT systems. As Bloomberg's Minlow explains, OpenAI has found that in July there were as many as 16,000 attempts to uncover the hidden information on how OpenAI's models approach reasoning through problems.
情报机构指控中国通用技术研究院通过100多名与英国有关联的学者进行间谍活动。中国驻英国大使馆驳斥这些说法纯属捏造。与此同时,OpenAI指控Moonshot大规模试图从其GPT系统中提取数据。据彭博社的米诺洛解释,OpenAI发现,仅在7月份就有多达16,000次尝试揭露OpenAI模型如何通过推理解决问题的隐藏信息。
And what open AI has done so far to stop distillation is that they have concealed their reasoning. When users enter a query, they get an answer instead of an explanation. But according to OpenAI, how Moonshot has gone around this is that they have copied that encrypted information and then ask a model in a different conversation to decrypt and transcribe that data. So that was Bloomberg's Min Low who added that the Chinese AI firm Moonshot has so far not commented on the accusations.
OpenAI 迄今为止为防止模型蒸馏所采取的措施是隐藏其推理过程。当用户输入查询时,他们得到的是答案而非解释。但据 OpenAI 称,Moonshot 绕过这一限制的方法是复制这些加密信息,然后在不同的对话中要求一个模型对其进行解密和转录数据。彭博社的 Min Low 补充说,中国 AI 公司 Moonshot 迄今为止尚未对这些指控作出评论。
The French government is set to lay out its budget plans today and it could test investor nerves in the final financial plan before next year's elections. Ministers are expected to share details of a 54 billion euro effort to lower the fiscal shortfall in France to 5% of economic output in 2027. Marie Jako, France CEO at Edmund de Rothschild, says the attitude to France among investors is getting worse. This widening of the spread between the French O and the German Bund is a clear indication that the risk perception on French debt uh is deteriorating uh and that the market is starting to punish uh France uh and its level of debt which is not necessarily something that it has done in the past.
法国政府计划今天公布其预算方案,这可能会在明年大选前的最终财政计划中考验投资者的神经。预计部长们将分享一项 540 亿欧元的努力细节,旨在到 2027 年将法国的财政赤字降至经济产出的 5%。Edmund de Rothschild 的法国首席执行官 Marie Jako 表示,投资者对法国的态度正在恶化。法国 O(注:指法国国债)与德国 Bund(注:指德国国债)之间利差的扩大清楚地表明,市场对法国债务的风险感知正在恶化,市场开始惩罚法国及其债务水平,而这在过去并不一定发生过。
Edund D Rothschild's Marie Jako there as the spread between the 10-year French yield premium and German buns hit 127 basis points yesterday. That gap has doubled in the past four months to levels not seen since 2012. The finance bill must be adopted at the end of September by the end of se December to avoid relying on emergency legislation. Meanwhile, farright leader Marine Le Penz says she'll present her own budget proposals next week.
Edmund de Rothschild 的 Marie Jako 指出,昨日十年期法国收益率溢价与德国 Bund 之间的利差达到 127 个基点。在过去四个月里,这一差距已翻倍,达到自 2012 年以来未见的高位。为避免依赖紧急立法,财政法案必须在 9 月底通过,最迟不超过 12 月底。与此同时,极右翼领导人玛丽娜·勒庞(Marine Le Pen)表示,她将在下周提出自己的预算提案。
Italy's Prime Minister Georgia Maloney says she plans to ask the EU for greater budget flexibility due to high energy prices. It comes as inflation in Europe's top economies jumped to the highest level since 2023, largely driven by elevated fuel costs. Maloney had been hoping to avoid tighter fiscal scrutiny from Brussels. However, Italy's 2025 deficit was confirmed at more than 3% of economic output earlier this month.
意大利总理乔治亚·梅洛尼(Georgia Meloni)表示,由于能源价格高企,她计划向欧盟寻求更大的预算灵活性。此举之际,欧洲主要经济体的通胀率跃升至 2023 年以来的最高水平,主要由居高不下的燃料成本推动。梅洛尼原本希望避免布鲁塞尔方面更严格的财政审查。然而,本月早些时候确认,意大利 2025 年的赤字将超过经济产出的 3%。
Britain's government is falling behind on plans to borrow more from regular savers, and that could potentially leave the government more reliant on the guilt market. The bad news comes after the UK paid the highest yield since 1999 at an auction of 10-year debt earlier this week. Bloomberg's Euan Pototts has more. The UK government has been hoping to narrow the gap with other European countries, many of which raised substantially more from retail investors.
英国政府在向普通储蓄者借款的计划上落后,这可能会使政府更加依赖债券市场。坏消息出现在本周早些时候的10年期债务拍卖中,英国支付了自1999年以来的最高收益率。彭博社的Euan Pototts带来了更多报道。英国政府一直希望缩小与其他欧洲国家的差距,其中许多国家从零售投资者那里筹集了大幅增加的资金。
But the first 5 months of this financial year saw the UK raise just 2.2 2 billion pounds through national savings and investments. That's well short of its target for the full year of 15 billion pounds. NSNI says it's responded by raising interest rates across some of its saving products. In Brussels, I'm part Bloomberg radio.
但在本财年的前5个月,英国通过国家储蓄和投资仅筹集了22亿英镑。这远低于其全年150亿英镑的目标。NSNI表示,他们已通过提高部分储蓄产品的利率来应对。我在布鲁塞尔,这里是彭博电台。
Well, soaring fuel prices could hand the UK chancellor an extra 3.9 billion pounds over the next year. This according to Bloomberg calculations. Consumers in Britain are paying almost £1.75 a liter for petrol with diesel at a record of around2. The higher prices are boosting VAT receipts just as households and businesses also face sharply higher energy costs. Now the question is whether Chancellor John Healey uses that windfall to soften the blow in his budget later this month.
飙升的燃料价格可能在未来一年为英国财政大臣带来额外的39亿英镑。这是根据彭博社的计算。英国消费者每升汽油支付近1.75英镑,柴油价格创下约2英镑的历史新高。更高的价格正在推高增值税收入,与此同时,家庭和企业也面临急剧上升的能源成本。现在的问题是,财政大臣约翰·希利是否会利用这笔意外之财来缓和他在本月晚些时候预算案中的冲击。
A lack of winter snowfall and high summer temperatures have proven problematic in Switzerland. New research shows ice there is melting quickly. It's threatening communities and harming residents. Bloomberg's Tiwa Adabio has more.
冬季降雪不足和夏季高温在瑞士造成了问题。新研究表明那里的冰层正在迅速融化。这威胁着社区并损害居民利益。彭博社的Tiwa Adabio带来了更多报道。
Glacial loss in the Swiss Alps hit nearly 20% in the past 5 years, a level higher than the global average. That's according to data from the Swiss Academy of Sciences who say ice losses have unexpectedly doubled over the period. The changes have led to serious consequences, including at least three deaths caused by an unusual number of rockfalls during tourism season. Researchers have concluded that the pace of melting leaves alpine glaciers with no chance of surviving over the long term in London.
过去5年,瑞士阿尔卑斯山的冰川损失接近20%,这一水平高于全球平均水平。这是根据瑞士科学院的数据,该学院表示冰层损失在此期间意外地翻了一番。这些变化导致了严重的后果,包括旅游季节期间因异常多的落石造成的至少三人死亡。研究人员得出结论,融化的速度使得高山冰川长期生存无望,(报道结束于)伦敦。
Ta Adabio, Bloomberg Radio.
Tiwa Adabio,彭博电台。
So those are some of our top stories for you this morning. Yeah, including that climate change issue in Switzerland in the Alps. Looking at the markets, Asian bonds declining, Japanese JGB 10-year yields up four basis points, 10 year US Treasury yields down a basis point and we are watching French sovereign yields which are perhaps likely to climb further today. Brent has dropped well below $100 a barrel though. So um a relief perhaps for Europe.
所以这些是我们今天早上为您带来的主要新闻。是的,包括瑞士阿尔卑斯山的气候变化问题。观察市场,亚洲债券下跌,日本10年期国债收益率上涨4个基点,美国10年期国债收益率下跌1个基点,我们正在关注法国主权收益率,今天可能进一步攀升。布伦特原油价格已大幅跌至每桶100美元以下。因此,这对欧洲来说或许是一种解脱。
Brent crude futures at $964. The dollar strengthening. European stock futures uh this morning are down by 4/10en of 1%. But NASDAQ futures get a big lift. They're up by 1% this morning after that upbeat forecast from Micron.
布伦特原油期货报964美元。美元走强。欧洲股指期货今晨下跌约1%。但纳斯达克期货获得大幅提振,在美光发布乐观预测后,今晨上涨1%。
All right. Well, in a moment we're going to bring you more on the cockpit battle aboard a Fly Dubai plane. Plus, uh get the latest ahead of the release of the French budget plan. Uh some serious things to consider uh ahead of next year's elections. But another story that I think caught both of our eyes this morning. Uh somewhere else to put on my map while I'm in the UK. Uh Caroline, the town of Skippton near Leeds.
好的。稍后我们将为您报道迪拜航空飞机驾驶舱内的冲突事件。此外,还将带来法国预算计划发布前的最新动态。明年大选前有一些重要事项值得考虑。不过今天早间还有另一个故事吸引了我们的目光。我在英国时还想去地图上标记的地方——卡罗琳提到的是利兹附近的斯基普顿镇。
Um do you do you have a dog? Uh are you familiar with what's going on here in the town of Skipton?
嗯,你有养狗吗?你对斯基普顿镇最近发生的事了解吗?
I don't have a dog and I've not been to Skipton, but I do know it obviously. Um, it is well known for being a hub for sheep dog trials and Bloomberg uh reporter Ben Stockton has been writing about this about how apparently there's now a global market for sheep dogs that do
我没有养狗,也没去过斯基普顿,但我确实知道这个地方。嗯,这里以牧羊犬比赛中心而闻名。彭博社记者本·斯托克顿一直在报道此事,据称目前全球市场对牧羊犬的需求很大
更进一步:量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力