OpenAI 拟融资 300 亿美元估值 1.4 万亿推迟 IPO
OpenAI Seeks $30 Billion at $1.4 Trillion Valuation
OpenAI 巨额融资与估值变动是加密及科技市场的重要资金面事件，直接影响相关资产的风险偏好与流动性预期，建议关注其对美股科技板块及算力基础设施的潜在影响。
NEWS MAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS, THIS IS "THE PULSE" WITH FRANCINE LACQUA. FRANCINE: GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE. WELCOME TO "THE PULSE." I’M FRANCINE LACQUA IN LONDON. TECH DOMINATING THE NEWS AGENDA THIS MORNING. THE U.S. PRESIDENT MEETING WITH LEADING FIGURES IN AI BEFORE HITTING THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL AHEAD OF THE MID-TERMS. WE’LL DISCUSS WHAT THIS MEANS FOR NARCOTICS AND LOOK AHEAD TO CRUCIAL U.S. INFLATION READINGS. BLOOMBERG UNDERSTANDS THAT OPENAI IS AIMING TO RAISE $30 BILLION FROM INVESTORS.
新闻制造者与市场动向，这是由弗朗辛·拉库主持的《脉搏》。弗朗辛：大家早上好。欢迎来到《脉搏》。我是身在伦敦的弗朗辛·拉库。科技主导了今早的新闻议程。美国总统在中期选举前的竞选活动之前，会见了人工智能领域的领军人物。我们将讨论这对麻醉品意味着什么，并展望至关重要的美国通胀数据。彭博社获悉，OpenAI 正旨在从投资者处筹集 300 亿美元。
IT COMES AFTER THE STARTUP AFTER THEY PUSHED BACK PLANS FOR AN INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING. SAM ALTMAN HAS BEEN SPEAKING WITH BLOOMBERG ABOUT AI SAFETY CONCERNS AND THE DECISION TO PUSH BACK ITS IPO UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT YEAR.
这家初创公司在推迟首次公开募股计划后，出现了这一情况。山姆·阿尔特曼一直在与彭博社就人工智能安全担忧以及决定将 IPO 推迟至至少明年进行讨论。
WHILE WE ARE GOING THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF ADJUSTING TO THIS NEW LEVEL OF CAPABILITY AND NEW SAFETY REQUIREMENTS FOR THAT, WE JUST WANT TO GET OUR FEET UNDER US AND MAKE SURE WE UNDERSTAND HOW TO OPERATE IN THIS NEW WAY AND BE ABLE TO MAKE SOME OF THESE DECISIONS IN FRONT OF US 2002 PRESSURE BEING A NEWLY PUBLIC COMPANY AND THEN I THINK WE’LL BE PUBLIC AT SOME POINT, THERE WILL BE MORE NEW LEVELS THAT COME BUT NOT ALL AT THE SAME TIME.
在我们经历适应这一新能力水平和新的安全要求的阶段时，我们只想站稳脚跟，确保我们理解如何以这种新方式运作，并能够做出我们面前的一些决定。面临作为一家新上市公司的压力，我认为我们会在未来某个时间点上市，届时将出现更多新层面，但不会同时出现。
FRANCINE: SAM ALTMAN’S COMMENT CAME AS OPENAI UNVEILED AN ALWAYS AIAGENT. -- AGENT.
弗朗辛：山姆·阿尔特曼的评论是在 OpenAI 推出一个始终在线的人工智能代理——代理时发表的。
WE’RE STARTING IN THE ENTERPRISE AURIN PAVEMENT IT IS FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. NUMBER WAKE UP, THERE IS A LOT OF VALUE WE CAN BRING TO THE ENTERPRISE COMMERCE. WE HAVE 2.5 MILLION BUSINESSES ON THE PLANET. THE BUSINESS SEGMENT GREW 100% QUARTER OVER QUARTER. IT IS ON FIRE. FRANCINE: THAT SEEKS TO SIDESTEP NEW GOVERNMENT RULES ADDRESSING CONCERNS OVER AI RISKS. PRESIDENT TRUMP REJECTED THE IDEA OF FEDERAL REGULATION ON AI BUT ENDORSED USING OUTSIDE AUTOOR THES TO ADDRESS THE SAFETY.
我们从企业领域开始，原因有几点。第一，唤醒（注：此处原文 'NUMBER WAKE UP' 疑似为 'FIRST' 或类似序数词的误识，结合语境译为‘第一’），我们可以为企业商务带来大量价值。地球上有 250 万家企业。该业务板块季度环比增长 100%。势头强劲。弗朗辛：此举旨在规避解决人工智能风险担忧的新政府法规。特朗普总统拒绝了联邦监管人工智能的想法，但支持利用外部审计师来解决安全问题。
-- AUDITOR TO ADDRESS THE SAFETY. PRES. TRUMP: THE BIGGEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD SIGNED THAT AND I SIGNED IT AS PRESIDENT. IT IS A FORM OF PROTECTION.
-- 审计师来解决安全问题。特朗普总统：世界上最大的签署了这一点，我也以总统身份签署了它。这是一种保护形式。
IS THIS BINDING IN ANY WAY? PRES. TRUMP: I THINK IT IS NORMALLY BINDING YEAH. FRANCINE: PRESIDENT TRUMP GETS BACK ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL WITH A RALLY IN OKLAHOMA TODAY AND ANOTHER IN ALABAMA TOMORROW. BLOOMBERG UNDERSTANDS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL BE ON THE ROAD FOR CAMPAIGN EVENTS ALMOST EVERY DAY IN OCTOBER. LET’S GET MORE FROM BLOOMBERG. TRUMP’S APPROVAL RATING IS NEAR RECORD LOWS AHEAD OF THE MID-TERMS. CAN HE TURN THINGS AROUND?
这在任何方面都具有约束力吗？特朗普总统：我认为它通常具有约束力，是的。弗朗辛：特朗普总统今天将在俄克拉荷马州参加一场集会，明天在阿拉巴马州参加另一场集会，重新踏上竞选之路。彭博社获悉，特朗普总统将在十月份几乎每天都参加竞选活动。让我们从彭博社获取更多报道。在中期选举前夕，特朗普的支持率接近历史低点。他能扭转局势吗？
ONE THING IS FOR CERTAIN, HE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME. WE’RE A FEW WEEKS AHEAD OF THE CRUCIAL MID-TERM ELECTION. THE POLLS ARE NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR HIM OR THE REPUBLICANS CHANCE IN THE HOUSE AND PERHAPS THE SENATE TOO. I THINK THE MAIN ISSUE NOW THE ADMINISTRATION IS GOING TO TRY TO GET AHEAD OF HERE IS THIS ISSUE OF THE COST OF LIVING AND HIGH ENERGY PRICES. OF COURSE WE CAN SEE THAT LINK BETWEEN WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING GEO-POLITICALLY, THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND WE SEE NO SIGNS OF IT ABATING AND IMPACT ON ENERGY PRICES AND OF COURSE THOSE RECENT ACTIONS BY THE U.S.
有一件事是确定的，他的时间不多了。我们距离至关重要的中期选举还有几周时间。民调对他以及共和党在众议院甚至参议院的胜算都不利。我认为政府目前试图抢占先机的核心议题是生活成本和高昂的能源价格。当然，我们可以看到地缘政治事件、中东战争及其未见缓和的迹象对能源价格的影响，以及美国近期针对加拿大的行动。
TOWARDS CANADA. A BIG TRADING PARTNER WITH THE U.S. AND THAT -- THOSE TRADE ACTIONS IMPACTING A LOT OF IMPORTANT SWING STATES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS WE KNOW TRUMP IS GOING TO BE HITTING THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL FOR EXAMPLE. WE ALSO EXPECT HIM TO MAKE AN ANNOUNCEMENT. ALASKA, THERE WAS A VERY, VERY TIGHT RACE THERE FOR THE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT DAN SULLIVAN WAS UNDER PRESSURE. HE WAS GOING AAND THEN EVENTS FOR EXAMPLE IN THE WHITE HOUSE TRYING TO FLAG THIS INVESTMENT FOR THE STATE.
针对加拿大。加拿大是美国重要的贸易伙伴，而这些贸易举措影响了靠近加拿大边境的许多关键摇摆州。正如我们所知，特朗普将踏上竞选之路，例如。我们还预计他将发表声明。在阿拉斯加，共和党现任议员丹·沙利文面临巨大压力，选情非常胶着。此外，白宫方面的一些举动，例如试图为该州争取投资，也值得关注。
THOSE KIND OF INTERVENTIONS WE EXPECT TO SEE BY THE PRESIDENT IN THE WHITE HOUSE OVER THE COMING WEEKS. FRANCINE: WHAT CAN A SPLIT CONGRESS MEAN FOR FOREIGN POLICY IF THE TEMPERATURES WIN BIG, WHAT CAN IT MEAN FOR FOREIGN POLICY IN EUROPE?
我们预计在未来几周内会看到总统在白宫采取这类干预措施。弗朗辛：如果民主党赢得大选，分裂的国会对外交政策意味着什么？在欧洲的外交政策上又意味着什么？
PEOPLE ARE WATCHING THIS CLOSELY. NUMBER ONE, IT WOULD BE THE IMPACT ON FOREIGN POLICY DECISIONS LIKE THE UKRAINE AND THE U.S. IS STILL THAT MAIN DEFENSE PARTNER FOR A LOT OF THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES AND OF COURSE IN TERMS OF ITS COMMITMENT TO -- UKRAINE IS SUCH A KEY PLAYER IN TERMS OF NATO. WE’LL BE WATCHING WHAT IT MEANS FOR THAT. SECOND OF ALL IS TRADE. THE E.U. FOR EXAMPLE SIGNED A TRADE WITH DEAL WITH TRUMP A YEAR AGO.
人们正密切关注此事。首先，这将影响外交政策的决策，如乌克兰问题。美国仍然是许多欧洲国家的主要国防合作伙伴，当然，就其对北约的承诺而言，乌克兰也是一个关键角色。我们将关注这对此有何影响。其次是贸易。例如，欧盟一年前与特朗普签署了贸易协议。
IT HAS BEEN LOCKED DOWN AS EUROPEANS SEE IT. THERE ARE CONCERNS THERE COULD BE FURTHER MEASURES AT SOME POINT ON THAT AND THRENE THEN THERE IS THE MARKET SENTIMENT. THE MARKETS TEND TO LIKE A PLITT CONGRESS, THE IMPLICATION BEING THERE IS ROOM FOR COMPROMISE. IF ONE HOUSE GOES THE REPUBLICANS AND ONE TO THE DEMOCRATS, MARKETS LIKE THAT. THERE ARE HUGE ISSUES AROUND INFLATION. HUGE ISSUES AROUND ENERGY PRICES WHICH ARE LINKED TO THE WAR OBVIOUSLY IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
在欧洲人看来，该协议已被锁定。人们担心届时可能会对该协议采取进一步措施。此外还有市场情绪。市场往往青睐分裂的国会，其含义是存在妥协的空间。如果一个议院由共和党控制，另一个由民主党控制，市场喜欢这种局面。围绕通胀存在重大问题。围绕能源价格也存在重大问题，而能源价格显然与中东的战争有关。
SO ANY POLICY CHANGES AROUND THAT WILL BE VERY IMPACTFUL FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD. FRANCINE: SUSAN, THANK YOU SO MUCH AS ALWAYS. TERRIFIC BRIEFING AHEAD OF THE MID-TERMS FIVE WEEKS AWAY. NOW WE’RE JOINED BY GLOBAL CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AT BLACKROCK. THERE ARE SO MANY UNKNOWNS. COMING FROM ALL SIDES. WHAT IS THE BASIS YOU’RE CERTAIN ABOUT? THE ECONOMY? YOU STALK ABOUT AI SCARCITY. BEFORE WE GHETTO THE UNKNOWNS?
因此，围绕这一点的任何政策变化都将对世界其他地区产生重大影响。弗朗辛：苏珊，一如既往地非常感谢你。在距离中期选举还有五周之际，带来了一场精彩的简报会。现在我们将连线贝莱德（BlackRock）的全球首席投资战略师。存在如此多的未知因素，来自四面八方。你所确定的依据是什么？经济？你一直在谈论人工智能的稀缺性。在我们把未知因素边缘化之前？
I THINK AI SCARCITY IS GETTING REINFORCED. RIGHT NOW IT FEELS LIKE A PRETTY BIG MOMENT NOT NECESSARILY BECAUSE OF THE MODEL RELEASE BREAKTHROUGH BUT MORE ON THE APPLICATION BREAKTHROUGH. YOU LOOK AT THE AGENTS, PLAYED AROUND WITH AGENTS IN THE PAST AND THEY ARE A LITTLE IF I HADLY TO SET UP. REPRESENTING A TECHNICAL HURDLE. EXTREMELY EASY TO SET UP. YOU DON’T ACTUALLY DO THE SETUP YOURSELF. MOST PEOPLE DON’T CARE ABOUT THAT.
我认为人工智能的稀缺性正在得到强化。目前看来这是一个相当重要的时刻，这不一定是因为模型发布的突破，而更多是因为应用的突破。看看智能体（Agents），过去我们曾尝试过使用智能体，如果勉强设置的话，它们有点难以配置。这代表了一个技术障碍。但现在极其容易设置。你实际上不需要自己进行设置。大多数人并不关心这一点。
WHAT WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW 1-AGENTS RELEASE MAY WELL CATALYZE A WAVE OF AI ADOPTION AND WITH THAT, WE’RE TALKING ABOUT FLU REVENUE OPPORTUNITIES, THEY ARE THINKING ABOUT GREAT CUSTOMIZED AVS AND PAYMENTS. NOT JUST SUBSCRIPTION. ALL OF THAT IS GOING TO ACCELERATE THE DEMAND FOR AI AND INFRASTRUCTURE AND TRADE SCARCITY TRADE. FRANCINE: SAFETY CONCERNS. IS IT PART AND PARCEL AS WE ADOPT THIS TECHNOLOGY? OR PUT A STOP TO SOME OF THE CAPEX SPENDING IF IT IS CURTAILED?
我们现在看到的——1月发布的智能体——很可能会引发一波人工智能采用浪潮。随之而来的是，我们在谈论流感收入机会时，他们正在考虑非常定制化的自动驾驶汽车（AVS）和支付方案，而不仅仅是订阅模式。所有这些都将加速对人工智能、基础设施以及稀缺性交易的需求。弗朗辛：安全担忧。这是我们采用这项技术时不可或缺的一部分吗？还是会因缩减而停止部分资本支出（CapEx）？
IT IS POSSIBLE ON TWO FRONTS. THERE IS AN INTRINSIC TRADEOFF BETWEEN CONVENIENCE AND SAFETY AND PRIVACY AND THEN THE SECOND FRONT, WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE MID-TERMS. ONE THING I’M PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO IS HOW THE NARRATIVES AROUND AI DATA CENTER IS EVOLVING. IF WE COULD SEE ACTUALLY POTENTIAL KIND OF STALLING TO HAVE COMPETITION FOR CAPITAL WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR BECAUSE DATA CENTERS BECOMING LESS POPULAR.
这在两个层面上是可能的。便利性与安全和隐私之间存在固有的权衡。第二个层面，我们刚才谈到了中期选举。我密切关注的一件事是围绕人工智能数据中心的叙事如何演变。如果我们看到数据中心变得不那么受欢迎，从而可能阻碍竞争，导致今年到目前为止我们所见的资本竞争出现停滞。
WE BRING ALL OF THAT TOGETHER, IF WE DO SEE SEE POTENTIAL SLOWDOWN CONSTRAINTS OF AN AI BUILDOUT, THEN INFRASTRUCTURE, LISTED INFRASTRUCTURE THAT ALREADY HAVE OPERATING CAPACITY MAY BECOME MORE SCARCE AND MORE BEAT UP. FRANCINE: WHAT ARE THE OTHER KEY STORIES? THE BOND YIELD AGAIN IS SOMETHING WE’RE A ELECTRICITY OBSESSED ABOUT. IS THAT A SIMPLE FED INFLATION, ENERGY? IS IT JUST THOSE THREE PUT TOGETHER?
我们将这一切综合起来，如果我们确实看到人工智能建设扩张面临潜在的放缓制约，那么已经具备运营能力的上市基础设施可能会变得更加稀缺且遭受更多打击。弗朗辛：其他关键故事是什么？债券收益率再次成为我们关注的重点，我们对电力痴迷不已。这只是简单的美联储通胀问题、能源问题吗？还是仅仅将这三者结合起来？
TWO MAIN DRIVERS SO FAR THIS YEAR. WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT BONDS AND ARE UNDERWEIGHT IN LONG DURATION FOR A VERY LONG TIME NOW. THIS IS PLAYING OUT IN TERMS OF DIRECTIONAL TRAVEL THIS YEAR, IT IS NOTHING NEW. WE HAVE BEEN IN THIS NEW REGIME OF SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS SINCE 2021. THE TWO FORCES IN PARTICULAR ACCELERATED THIS YEAR. ONE IS THE COMPETITION FOR CAPITAL BECAUSE OF AI. YOU LOOK AT ALREADY UNPRECEDENTED POINTS OF VIEW CAPEX BUILDOUT AT THE END OF LAST YEAR.
今年以来有两个主要驱动因素。我们一直在谈论债券，并且已经很长时间低配长久期债券了。今年在方向性走势上正在体现这一点，这并不新鲜。自2021年以来，我们就处于供应受限的新体制中。其中两种力量在今年尤其加速。一是由于人工智能引发的资本竞争。你可以看到，在去年年底，资本支出扩张的规模已经达到了前所未有的水平。
HYPER SCALERS ARE INCREASING 50%. THAT IS GOING FOR UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS TO UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS. THAT HAS REALLY INTENSIFIED NEED FOR CAPITAL. THE OTHER FACTOR IS GEO-POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION AND ENERGY DISRUPTION AND OIL PRICE THAT IS GETTING INCREASINGLY CORRELATED WITH RATES. WE’RE TALKING ABOUT THE LEVEL LEVEL OF CORRELATION NOT SEEN SINCE THE 1990 EATS. THE TWO FACTORS PUT TOGETHER . INCOME IS BECOMING VERY ATTRACTIVE.
超大规模云厂商（Hyperscalers）正在增加50%的投入。这正推向前所未有的水平。这确实加剧了对资本的迫切需求。另一个因素是地缘政治碎片化、能源中断以及油价与利率的相关性日益增强。我们谈论的是自1990年代以来未曾见过的极高相关性水平。这两个因素结合在一起，使得收益变得非常有吸引力。
WE LIKE -- ON THE CURVE. IT DOESN’T TAKE AS MUCH RATE REPRICING. ACTUALLY TAKES MORE RATE REPRICING TO OFFSET THE -- YOU COLLECT BUT I THINK AT SOME POINT THERE IS A MORE BALANCED CONVERSATION TO BE HAD ABOUT MAYBE TECHNICALLY COULD WE BECOME A BIT LESS NEGATIVE ON BONDS GIVEN HOW MUCH REPRICING HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. FRANCINE: DO YOU NEED TO HIT A CERTAIN LEVEL? WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN FOR THAT TO CHAN
我们喜欢——在收益率曲线上。它不需要太多的利率重定价。实际上需要更多的利率重定价来抵消……你收集到的信息，但我认为在某一点上，关于债券的观点可能会变得更加平衡：鉴于已经发生了如此多的重定价，我们在技术上是否可以稍微减少对债券的看空态度？弗朗辛：你需要达到某个特定水平吗？什么情况下才会发生这种转变？
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