摩根士丹利分析师：Anthropic IPO是科技业分水岭事件

A setback to Anthropic. The company's steamrolling ahead with huge AI spending plans going into its blockbuster IPO. Dan Ives of York for Life is writing investors will focus on its massive growth profile. This will be a watershed event for the tech sector and the market. Dan joins us now for more. Dan, welcome to the program. It doesn't come without controversy. Let's talk about the details. The customer concentration, Dan, how much of this company is built on just a handful of names?

Yeah. I mean, look, the niche through the hyperscalers and just what we're seeing on the GPU side, it's gonna be concentrated now. But I don't think that that's necessarily that much of an issue. I think investors understand in this AI build out, it starts with a small group, and it's gonna expand because remember, we're still third inning of the AI revolution. Anthropoc is in a unique position, but definitely, well, this is eye opening in terms of for the market.

And I think finally, investors, they've anticipated this watershed event because anthropics front and center in the AI race. It's certainly a unique proposition, Dan. How unusual is it to see a company in a perspective worn about existential risk to humanity? Yeah. I mean, that's definitely a first. And look. I think it speaks to a sales pitch or a warning, Dan? Hey. I well, again, that's a head scratcher, Saturday Night Live scare.

Right? I mean, I think look. I think part of the problem is is that if they slow down, China wins. And I think that's sort of the problem here is that the safety guardrails that you could put in, you know, the genie's already out the bottle. And I think you've seen Jensen, Nadella, and others kinda talk about it. You know, also part of the problem is you can't get to the top floor and then pull the ladder up. So the regulatory capture is another issue that's playing out here.

And I just think the reality front and center today probably in the White House is that there needs to be safety guardrails, but you can't have politicians in two two area code slowing down innovation, especially when China is accelerating. Dan, is that really true that this is going to just give China an upper hand if you put limits or guardrails around recursive, recursive AI, self improving AI? That's something that the PBOC isn't particularly interested in, engaging with and that ultimately potentially leaves a sort of authoritarian regime at the hands of a technology that could potentially go rogue.

Yeah, Lisa. Look. My view is for the first time in thirty years, The US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. And I think part of this balancing act or quagmire is that the reality is that for The US, if you actually start to slow down the model, slow down innovation, China will narrow the gap, and then and that's just the reality. I think when you what Karp talks about, and I agree, sovereign AI, Jensen talks about this as well, I think that is much more of the focus, not probably a focus today in terms of enterprises having control of their own data.

But, look, in my view, the data center build out, what companies are looking at when it comes to use cases, it's still early days, but you can talk at both sides of the mouth. And I think that continues to be what investors need to glean through, talk versus action. Meanwhile, people are talking about just the scope of money that's being raised. I mean, the latest in this prospectus reported by Reuters of Anthropic talks about $518,000,000,000 of additional spending in the future on data centers, cloud computing.

At what point are we, promising the financing of something that's bigger than any other industrial revolution in The United States with kind of an unproven return proposition? I mean, yes, we're seeing some returns on this, but the spending is incredibly robust and only accelerating from here. Yeah. We're gonna have, call it, 4 to 5,000,000,000,000 being spent next, you know, three to four years, but you're building the Vegas Strip in 1955.

I mean, that that's where we are relative to what this is gonna look. I went to about physical AI and data and ultimately space, you know, where it all plays out. I I think investors understand that these companies just can't spend and see no returns. And I think that's something that we've seen with the public companies. For Anthropic, that will be the focus for investors is that when you start to see the return, the growth is is eye popping relative to what they're seeing, but it's that balance.

And then for investors, it's understanding what are the derivatives of this, the second, third, fourth derivatives. Because as anthropic goes public and others, it's healthy for the overall tech space. These are public companies, transparency just like we've seen with SpaceX. Hey, Dan. I have a question regarding this meeting this afternoon, the superintelligence luncheon with the president. Do you think he's trying to get the industry on board to some of the communication he has been using when it comes to AI, or is it the other way around where potentially you have the industry trying to get the president to sign up on maybe some regulation?

Yeah. I think it's the former. I think it comes down to you can't do a doomer. You can't scare people. Say AI is taking 50% of white collar jobs. Electricity bill is gonna go higher. It's gonna be an issue for mankind, and then all of a sudden, know, talk about growth. I think the reality is that it's a beast of the data center issues, the midterms, such a political debate. Tech industries created the PR nightmare themselves.

And I think it's I think there's definitely some sort of, you know, closing the door to understand getting everyone on the same page. Because if you do that, it just fuels the fire relative to try to close some of the data centers, which is a negative for the industry. And then the winner for every data center that closes or doesn't happen is China.