特朗普拒绝伊朗7日海峡复航提议，油价反应平淡
Bloomberg This Weekend | Trump Rejects Ceasefire Deal, Data Center Boom Skepticism
涉及关键地缘事件（美伊谈判破裂）及大宗商品（原油/柴油）价格动态，直接影响能源成本与宏观预期，建议关注油价走势及中东局势后续发展。
COMING UP ON "BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND," PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS NO TO SEVEN-DAY PLAN TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
在《彭博周末》即将播出的内容中，特朗普总统表示拒绝为期七天的重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的计划。
I PROJECTED THEY WANT TO MAKE A DEAL BECAUSE THEY ARE LOSING SO BADLY.
我预计他们想要达成协议，因为他们输得太惨了。
THE TREASURY SECRETARY SAYS HIS ECONOMIC ISOLATION PLAN IS DELIVERING RESULTS. DAVID: PLUS, WHAT A I BACKLASH MEANS FOR THE DATA CENTER BOOM. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR COMPANIES PLANNING TO GO PUBLIC.
财政部长表示他的经济孤立计划正在取得成果。大卫：此外，反弹对数据中心繁荣意味着什么？这对计划上市的公司又意味着什么？
IT'S A NOR'EASTER.
这是一股东北风暴。
THOUSANDS OF FLIGHTS CANCELED AND DELAYED. WHAT IT COULD MEAN FOR YOUR MONDAY COMMUTE. CHRISTINA: YOU CAN HAVE A BEACH DAY WITH A NOR'EASTER. YOU JUST HAVE TO BE REALLY, REALLY COMMITTED TO IT. WELCOME TO "BLOOMBERG THIS WEEKEND." WE ARE COMING TO YOU LIVE FROM NEW YORK. I AM CHRISTINA RUFFINI. DAVID: I AM DAVID GURA. WE ARE STREAMING ON THE BLOOMBERG BUSINESS APP. CHRISTINA: DID YOU GET IN OK THIS MORNING? DAVID: I GOT IN FINE.
数千架航班被取消和延误。这可能对你的周一通勤意味着什么。克里斯蒂娜：你可以在东北风暴天去海滩。你只需要非常、非常投入才行。欢迎来到《彭博周末》。我们正从纽约现场直播。我是克里斯蒂娜·鲁菲尼。大卫：我是大卫·古拉。我们正在彭博商业应用上直播。克里斯蒂娜：你今天早上顺利到达了吗？大卫：我顺利到达了。
THIS IS RHODE ISLAND, I BELIEVE. THE STORM IS SITTING OVER THE NORTHEAST. I WAS WAITING TO HEAR MORE ON WHAT WE CAN EXPECT AS THE DAY UNFOLDS. CHRISTINA: IT'S MISERABLE AND COLD BUT IT SEEMS LIKE PEOPLE ARE ABLE TO FUNCTION. IT'S ALSO A WEEKEND. HUNKER DOWN, HANG OUT AND WATCH SOME TV. DAVID: THERE YOU ARE, DOING JUST THAT. NATHAN YEAGER IN FOR LISA MATEO. HE'S IN LONDON WITH THE HEADLINES.
我想这是罗德岛。风暴正停留在东北部。我一直在等待更多关于随着一天过去我们能期待什么的更多信息。克里斯蒂娜：天气很糟糕且寒冷，但似乎人们还能正常生活。而且这也是一个周末。待在家里，放松一下，看些电视。大卫：你正是这么做的。内森·耶格代替丽莎·马特奥出镜。他在伦敦报道头条新闻。
IT'S BEEN A WEEKEND OF DANGEROUS WEATHER ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST. IT'S NOT DONE YET. A POWERFUL NOR'EASTER HAS KNOCKED OUT POWER IN TENS OF THOUSANDS OF HOMES AND BUSINESSES WITH COASTAL FLOODING FROM TIDEWATER, VIRGINIA ALL THE WAY TO NEW ENGLAND. THE GOVERNORS OF NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY HAVE DECLARED STATES OF EMERGENCY. HERE IS NEW YORK GOVERNOR KATHY HOCHUL.
这是一个沿着东北海岸的危险天气周末。这还没结束。一场强大的东北风暴导致成千上万的房屋和企业停电，沿海洪水从弗吉尼亚州的潮汐水一直蔓延到新英格兰。纽约州和新泽西州州长已宣布进入紧急状态。以下是纽约州州长凯西·霍赫尔的讲话。
ANYONE WHO GOES IN OR NEAR THE WATER THIS WEEKEND IS GAMBLING WITH YOUR LIFE. STAY CLEAR OF DOWNED POWER LINES. NEVER DRIVE THROUGH WATER THAT YOU CAN'T SEE THROUGH. SOMETIMES -- OFTEN TIMES IT IS DEEPER THAN IT SEEMS TO APPEAR.
这个周末任何下水或靠近水域的人都是在拿生命冒险。远离倒下的电线。切勿驶入看不透的水域。有时——经常——水深比看起来的要深。
ROADS IN NEW JERSEY ARE IMPASSABLE AND IT'S CAUSED HUNDREDS OF FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS, MOSTLY AT BOSTON'S LOGAN AIRPORT. ED SHEERAN HAD TO CANCEL TWO CONCERTS OUTSIDE OF BOSTON. HURRICANE MANOLO IS GAINING STRENGTH AS IT IS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. IT WAS LAST -- OFFICIAL SAY COULD BE A LIFE-THREATENING EVENT STILL. INDONESIA IS EXTENDING A SEARCH OPERATION BY SEVEN MORE DAYS TO LOOK FOR 71 PEOPLE STILL MISSING FROM A FERRY THAT CAPSIZED IN THE JAVA SEA TWO WEEKS AGO.
新泽西州的道路无法通行，这导致了数百架航班的取消，大部分是在波士顿洛根机场。艾德·希曼不得不取消波士顿外的两场演唱会。飓风马诺洛在夏威夷大岛附近增强。官方称它仍可能构成危及生命的事件。印度尼西亚将搜索行动延长七天，以寻找两周前在爪哇海翻船的渡轮上失踪的71人。
LOCAL OFFICIALS SAY THE VIRGO TRANSPORT EIGHT WAS CARRYING 213 PASSENGERS AND 30 CREW WHEN IT LOST CONTACT ON ITS WAY TO BORNEO ISLAND. ONLY 108 OF THOSE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN RESCUED. IRAN SAYS IT IS WAITING FOR A DEFINITIVE RESPONSE AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID HE HAS REJECTED THE COUNTRY'S OFFER TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS HE IS AWARE OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S REMARKS BUT -- THEY INTERCEPTED TWO HOUTHI DRONES.
当地官员表示，维戈运输八号在飞往婆罗洲岛的途中失联时，机上载有213名乘客和30名机组人员。目前仅有108人获救。伊朗表示，在特朗普总统表示已拒绝该国提出的在未来七天内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的提议后，伊朗正在等待最终答复。伊朗外交部长表示，他知晓特朗普总统的言论，但——他们拦截了两架胡塞武装无人机。
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL'S W REPORTING PRESIDENT TRUMP PLANS TO RESUME THE CONFLICT WITH IRAN AFTER MIDTERM ELECTIONS. POLICE IN GLOUCESTER SAY A NUMBER OF PROPERTIES WERE RECOVERED NEAR RAF ERFURT, A BASE IN WESTERN ENGLAND. DAVID AND CHRISTINA. DAVID: A WILD STORY THERE. CHRISTINA: SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON. AS WE MENTIONED THIS MORNING, IT IS DEJA VU AS THE U.S. AND IRAN APPEARED TO BE BACK AT SQUARE ONE IN THEIR NEGOTIATIONS OVER REOPENING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AT THE END OF THE SEVEN MONTH LONG CONFLICT.
《华尔街日报》W报道，特朗普总统计划在中期选举后恢复与伊朗的冲突。格洛斯特警方称，在英国西部拉夫埃福特（RAF Erfurt）基地附近找回了多处房产。大卫：那里有个离奇的故事。克里斯蒂娜：我们会持续关注。正如我们今天早上提到的，情况似曾相识，美国和伊朗在结束长达七个月的冲突后，关于重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的谈判似乎回到了原点。
PRESIDENT TRUMP CONFIRMED HE HAS REJECTED THE LATEST PROPOSAL FOR A CEASE-FIRE. PRES. TRUMP: I'M REJECTING THE DEAL. THEY WANT TO MAKE A DEAL WHERE THEY OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IMMEDIATELY BECAUSE THEY ARE LOSING SO BADLY. YOU DON'T SEE THAT IN THE FAKE NEWS. BUT, WE ARE WINNING TREMENDOUSLY. WE HAVE TOTAL CONTROL OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT. MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF OIL ARE COMING OUT AT THE HORMUZ STRAIT. WE HAD 29 SHIPS COME OUT LAST WEEK.
特朗普总统确认他拒绝了最新的停火提案。特朗普总统：我拒绝了这个协议。他们想达成一项立即开放霍尔木兹海峡的协议，因为他们输得很惨。你看不到这在假新闻中报道。但我们赢得非常漂亮。我们完全控制了霍尔木兹海峡。大量石油正从霍尔木兹海峡流出。上周有29艘船驶出。
THEY WANT TO MAKE A DEAL. I THINK THAT'S FINE. I LIKE MAKING A DEAL TOO. DAVID: LASTLY, BRENT OIL FUTURES DROPPED ON WORD OF THAT DEAL. THEY ARE STILL ABOVE 00 A BARREL. JOINING US NOW IS OUR MIDDLE EAST REPORTER, DAN WILLIAMS AND OUR STRATEGIST, MIKE MCGLONE. AS THESE CONVERSATIONS WERE UNFOLDING ON THE SIDELINES, IT SEEMED LIKE THERE WAS OPTIMISM ON THE IRANIANS ARE AS EXPRESSED IN INTERVIEWS THAT THE PRESIDENT DID, HERE IN NEW YORK.
他们想达成协议。我觉得这很好。我也喜欢达成协议。大卫：最后，受该协议消息影响，布伦特原油期货下跌。油价仍高于每桶00美元。现在加入我们的是我们的中东记者丹·威廉姆斯和我们的策略师迈克·麦格隆。在这些幕后对话展开的过程中，似乎伊朗方面表达了乐观情绪，正如总统在纽约接受采访时所表达的那样。
WHAT DOES THIS LATEST DEVELOPMENT TELL US ABOUT WHAT'S LIKELY TO HAPPEN NEXT?
这一最新进展告诉我们接下来可能会发生什么？
I THINK IT'S FAIR TO SAY WE HAVE ENTERED IT MONEY TIME, QUITE LITERALLY. MONEY IS FRONT LINE FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP WHEN IT COMES TO U.S. PETROL PRICES, WHICH IS MY UNDERSTANDING IN SOME PARTS OF THE U.S., HIT $6.53. THAT'S MORE THAN DOUBLE THE AVERAGE AT THE OUTSET OF THIS WAR IN FEBRUARY. THIS WILL WEIGH HEAVILY ON VOTES WHEN PEOPLE GO TO THE POLLS IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS FIVE WEEKS FROM NOW. TRUMP IS AWARE OF THIS.
我认为可以说我们 literally（字面上）进入了金钱时间。就美国汽油价格而言，金钱是特朗普总统的前线，据我所知，在美国部分地区，汽油价格已触及6.53美元。这比今年二月战争爆发时的平均水平高出两倍多。这将在五周后的中期选举投票日对选民产生重大影响。特朗普对此心知肚明。
HE'S TRYING TO FIND WAYS OF LOWERING THOSE ENERGY COSTS. AND THE IRANIANS ARE AWARE THAT HE'S AWARE OF THIS AND IT APPEARS THAT THEY TRY TO GAMBIT ON THE SIDES OF THE U .N. GENERAL ASSEMBLY, PITCHING A RETURN TO NEGOTIATIONS THAT WOULD DEAL THEM SOME BENEFIT IN TERMS OF LONG-TERM CONTROL OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IT WOULD APPEAR THE PRESIDENT HAS TURNED IT DOWN BECAUSE HE'S AWARE THAT THEY ARE AWARE THAT HE'S AWARE OF WHAT HE'S FACING.
他正试图寻找降低这些能源成本的方法。伊朗人意识到他知道这一点，而且他们似乎试图在联合国大会的两侧进行博弈，提出重返谈判桌，以期在长期控制霍尔木兹海峡方面获得一些利益。看起来总统已经拒绝了这一提议，因为他知道伊朗人知道他知道自己面临的情况。
IN TERMS OF THE OFFICIAL IRANIAN POSITION TODAY, THEY ARE WAITING AND OFFICIAL REJECTION FROM THE UNITED STATES. IT'S WORTH REMEMBERING THAT IN TIMES WHERE TRUMP HIMSELF HAS SAID THERE IS NO DIPLOMACY GOING ON, THE MEDIATOR CHANNELS WERE STILL OPEN. WE ASSUME THAT IS STILL HAPPENING NOW. BUT, I THINK TRUMP IS IN NO MOOD TO BE PLAYING THIS KIND OF BRINKMANSHIP BY THE IRANIANS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE ECONOMIC PAIN HE'S FEELING, IF ALTERNATIVES ARE NOT FOUND IN GOOD TIME, WILL CAUSE HIM TO RECALCULATE.
就今天伊朗的官方立场而言，他们在等待美国的正式拒绝。值得记住的是，在特朗普本人表示没有外交活动的时期，调解渠道仍然开放。我们假设现在这种情况仍在继续。但是，我认为特朗普没有心情去应对伊朗人的这种边缘政策。问题是，如果未能及时找到替代方案，他所感受到的经济痛苦是否会促使他重新评估。
CHRISTINA: WHEN YOU LOOK AT OIL AND WHAT IT'S BEEN DOING, IT DIPPED ON NEWS OF A POTENTIAL DEAL BUT IT DID NOT DIP AS FAR AS WE HAVE SEEN IT IN PREVIOUS OVATIONS OF A POSSIBLE AGREEMENT. I'M WONDERING WHAT YOU EXPECT ON MONDAY AND IF THIS KIND OF MUTED REACTION TO POSITIVE NEWS IS INDICATIVE OF MY FRUSTRATION THAT THE MARKET IS FINALLY COMING AROUND TO REALIZE THAT JUST BECAUSE THE WHITE HOUSE SAYS THERE IS A DEAL DOESN'T MEAN THERE IS ONE AND THE MARKETS ARE FINALLY LEARNING THIS OR IF IT'S A REFLECTION THAT IF THERE EVEN IS A DEAL, THERE'S STILL A BACKLOG AND STILL BE A STRAIN ON SUPPLY, NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS AGREEMENT OR NON-AGREEMENT.
克里斯蒂娜：当你观察石油及其走势时，它因潜在协议的消息而下跌，但跌幅不如我们在之前对可能协议的乐观预期中看到的那么大。我想知道你对周一的预期是什么，以及这种对积极消息的温和反应是否表明我的挫败感——市场终于开始意识到，仅仅因为白宫说有协议并不意味着真的有协议，市场正在最终学习这一点，或者这是否反映出即使有协议，仍然存在积压问题，无论这个协议达成与否，供应仍将受到压力。
THAT'S A KEY THING TO REMEMBER. THERE IS A STRAIN AND SUPPLY COMPANY FROM THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IT SEEMS LIKE THE DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES OF IRAN ARE BEING PRODUCED EVERYDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, WE ARE SEEING SIGNIFICANT SUPPLY INCREASES, SURPLUSES FROM THE U.S. THIS IS AS WE SEE DEMAND INCREASE FROM CHINA. THEY ARE THE NUMBER ONE DEMAND FOR IMPORT -- IMPORTED CRUDE OIL. THAT IS DECLINING. THE KEY THING I WANT TO POINT OUT IS WE HAVE A BLOOMBERG OIL INDEX, IT'S UP 150%.
这是一个需要记住的关键点。来自霍尔木兹海峡的供应公司存在压力。似乎伊朗的防御能力每天都在被生产出来。与此同时，我们看到来自美国的显著供应增加和盈余。这是我们看到中国需求增加的时候。中国是进口原油的第一大需求国。这是下降的。我想指出的关键是我们有一个彭博石油指数，它上涨了150%。
THAT'S THE MOST SINCE 1987. NEXT YEAR, WE ARE GOING TO BE MEASURING FROM THAT LEVEL ON A YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS. THIS IS ABOUT AS BAD AS IT GETS. SOMETHING REALLY THAT HAS TO HAPPEN IN THE GULF. -- I LOOK AT THIS AS IT'S NOT GOING TO GET MUCH WORSE. AND THAT $6.50 DIESEL PRICE LOOKS SIMILAR TO FOUR DOLLARS A GALLON FOR GASOLINE IN 2008 WHICH MARKED THE PEAK. DAVID: THE EXPORT BAN ON DIESEL PRODUCTS, IT SEEMS LIKE THAT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE IMPLEMENTED ANYTIME SOON.
这是自1987年以来最糟糕的情况。明年，我们将以同比方式从这一水平开始衡量。情况已经坏到极点。海湾地区必须发生一些事情。-- 我认为情况不会再更糟了。6.50美元的柴油价格类似于2008年汽油每加仑4美元的水平，当时标志着峰值。大卫：柴油产品出口禁令似乎不太可能很快实施。
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO, THAT WAS FRONT AND CENTER FOR THIS ADMINISTRATION. WE GOT THIS POST YESTERDAY FROM THE PRESIDENT ON SOCIAL MEDIA ABOUT THE RELEASE OF NEW FUEL EFFICIENCY MANDATES. WE WILL LIKELY GET MORE INFORMATION ON THAT ON MONDAY. WE SEE THE PRICE OF DIESEL GETTING SO HIGH AND GAS SO HIGH. AND ON TIME TO SAY THE LEAST TO INTRODUCE A MANDATE THAT WOULD SCALE BACK HOW FUEL-EFFICIENT CARS WOULD HAVE TO BE.
尽管几天前这曾是本届政府的首要议题。我们昨天在社交媒体上收到了总统关于发布新燃油效率法规的帖子。我们可能会在周一获得更多相关信息。我们看到柴油和汽油价格涨得如此之高。至少可以说，是时候引入一项法规来降低汽车燃油效率的要求了。
DEFINITELY, IT IS GIVING SIGNS OF DESPERATION. IT'S MORE AT THE NATIONAL MARKET CYCLES THAT WILL ACTUALLY MATTER. ONE OF THE KEY INDICATORS FOR THE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ENERGY CRISIS NOT TO BE LESS. POTENTIALLY BREAKING THE STOCK MARKET. THE KEY THING IS LOOK AT U.S. NATIONAL GAS -- NATURAL GAS. THAT JANUARY FUTURE, IT WA
确实，它发出了绝望的信号。真正重要的是国家市场周期。关键指标之一是能源危机不会减轻的可能性。可能会打破股市。关键是看美国国家天然气——天然气。一月的期货合约，它波动
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力