特朗普拒绝伊朗重开霍尔木兹海峡谈判提议

And let me start with you and just get us up to speed here on the the state of play we were watching here in New York as these conversations were unfolding on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. It seems like there was some optimism on the Iranian's part as expressed in interviews that the president did again here in in New York. What what is the path forward as you see it? So what does this latest development tell us about what's likely to happen next?

Well, I think it's fair to say that we've now entered money time quite literally. Money is what's counting. It's certainly front of mind for president Trump when it comes to US petrol prices, which to my understanding, in some parts of The US hit $6.53. That's more than double the average at the outset of this war back in February. This is something that's gonna weigh heavily on voters when they go to the polls in the midterm elections just five weeks from now.

Trump is aware of this. He's trying to find ways of lowering those energy costs, and the Iranians are aware that he's aware of this. And it would appear that they tried a gambit on the sidelines of the UN general assembly, as you noted, of pitching him a return to negotiations, return to negotiations that would yield them some benefits, presumably in terms of long term control of whole moves or at least regime survival.

And it would appear that the president has turned it down because he's aware that they're aware that he's aware of the economic pain he's facing now. There is a brinkmanship here, but in terms of the official Iranian position today, they are awaiting a official rejection from The United States. It's worth remembering that at times when Trump himself has said there's no diplomacy going on, we later discovered that the backroom channels, the mediated channels were still open.

We assume that's still happening now, but I think Trump is in no mood to be played this kind of brinkmanship by the Iranians. The question is whether the economic pain he's feeling and whether a lack of alternatives, if indeed alternatives are not found in good time, will cause him to recalculate. Mike, when you look at oil and what it's been doing, obviously, it did dip on news of a potential deal, but it didn't dip as far as we've seen it in previous ovations of a of a possible agreement.

And I'm wondering what you're expecting Monday, and also if this kind of muted reaction even positive news is indicative of my frustration that the market is finally coming around to realize that just because the White House says there's a deal doesn't mean that there is one and the markets are finally learning this. Or if it is a reflection of the fact that even if there is a deal, the the factors, the inputs, there's still a backlog, and there's still this strain on supply no matter what happens, with this agreement or nonagreement.

Well, that's the key thing to remember. There's a strain in supply coming from the straight, but every day that goes by, it seems like the offensive capabilities of Iran are being reduced. Now mister Trump made statements about supply. We're seeing that come out. But at the same time, we're seeing pretty significant supply increases, surpluses from The US at the as we're seeing demand decreases from from China, decreasing their their they're the number one demand pull importer of crude oil.

That's declining. Now your key thing is is diesel, obviously, heating oil. It reached a record high last week. But the key thing I wanna point out is we have a Bloomberg heating oil index. It's up a 150 on a one year basis. That's the most in its history since 1987. So what that means is demand destruction is virtually guaranteed. And next year, we're gonna be measuring heating oil from that level on a year over year basis.

So I look at this as about as bad as it gets. Something really bad has to happen in The Gulf or the surpluses from The US, increasingly the world's largest energy producer, and declining demand from China. Just what happens when elasticity kicks in. So I look at this is it's not gonna be much worse, and that $6.50 diesel price looks very similar to $4 a gallon for gasoline in 2008, which marked the peak. Mike McGlone, I wanna ask you about these short term fixes that have been floated by the the administration.

Of course, this export ban on diesel products, and seems like that's not likely to be implemented anytime soon. Although it seemed like just a couple of days ago, that was very much front and center for this administration. Then we got this post yesterday from the president on social media about the release of new fuel efficiency mandates, likely to get more information on that on on Monday. This happening in this very kind of curious crucible, isn't it, Mike, as we see the the price of diesel getting so high, gas getting so high, and and odd time, to say the least, introduce a mandate that would scale back sort of how fuel efficient cars would have to be?

Well, definitely getting the signs of desperation. But I think it's more natural market cycles that'll actually matter. And one of the key indicators for that, David, for potential that for this energy crisis not to be less. And remember, what energy crisis do, it breaks stuff, breaks economies, breaks the bond markets doing that right now, potentially breaking the stock market. The key thing is look at US natural gas.

The US natural gas, that January future, which is apex of the Gale curve, it was up 15% in the year. Now it's down 15% in the year. So it's showing those deflationary forces. US cannot export more than 20% of our natural gas, but it's where things are going once we get through this worst part of it. The key thing I think people remember is don't underestimate the necessity that comes from invention that comes from necessity, and that's what's happening.

We find other ways around the strait, but also The US is getting pretty good control of this of The Gulf now. And we're hearing about the more sophisticated weapons they're using, lasers and space based technology in defense. I still can't I don't know if it's the the person in me who grew up with the Austin Powers laser era. I still can't believe that's something we're we're actually using on the battlefield these days.

Time. But I digress. Dan, I do wanna talk to you about, Netanyahu because I was surprised others were surprised as well that this deal fell apart as quickly as it did. I was speaking to people involved in negotiations as late as yesterday evening, and they were still saying they thought that, you know, it was Trump's comments were overblown and it was still salvageable. Obviously, we're waiting for official word, but it seems to be a fait accompli yet again.

This has to be good news for Netanyahu. He doesn't want a mitigation. He wants The US to finish the job here. One of the outliers in this deal from the beginning was gonna be that it included a secession of hostilities in Lebanon, something that Israel may not have agreed to. Talk us through Netanyahu's visit to the UN, that very fiery speech he made, and the reaction, to the the news this morning that this deal is likely not going through.

That was a very, very, good summary you gave there. However, it would appear that Netanyahu did not have a chance to discuss Iran substantively with the Americans. We know he didn't meet president Trump because the president was already back in Washington for his summit with his Chinese counterpart. So Netanyahu opted for a an unusually short trip to New York. In fact, he did his head didn't even touch a pillow in that hotel.

He landed upstate at an airport whose name was not officially released by his office, very unusual in itself, motored down some 60 miles, I'm told, to the United Nations, gave his speech, then motored back up to the airport to fly back. He was on the ground, I think, fewer than twenty hours. He didn't take the press with him, also unusual. And the the clear secu