美伊探讨霍尔木兹海峡分阶段协议，油价下跌
US, Iran Explore Phased Hormuz Deal
中东地缘局势直接关联全球能源供应链与通胀预期，霍尔木兹海峡谈判进展对大宗商品定价具有实质性影响，建议关注原油及避险资产走势变化。
I ANNOUNCER: THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY." REPORTING FROM THE GLOBAL MAGAZINE THAT HELPS BUSINESS LEADERS THEY HAD WITH INSIGHT ON THE PEOPLE, COMPANIES, AND TRENDS SHAPING TODAY'S COMPLEX ECONOMY. PLUS, GLOBAL BUSINESS, FINANCE, AND TECH NEWS AS IT HAPPENS. "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY" WITH CAROL MASSAR AND TIM STENOVEC LIVE ON BLOOMBERG RADIO, TELEVISION, AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. CAROL: GOOD AFTERNOON, EVERYBODY.
播音员：这里是《彭博商业周刊日报》。来自全球杂志的报道，该杂志为商业领袖提供洞察，帮助他们了解塑造当今复杂经济格局的人物、公司和趋势。此外，还有实时发生的全球商业、金融和科技新闻。《彭博商业周刊日报》由卡罗尔·马萨尔和蒂姆·斯滕诺维克在彭博广播、电视及彭博原创内容中直播。卡罗尔：大家下午好。
ACROSS BLOOMBERG PLATFORMS, WE ARE LIVE. CAROL MASSAR ALONG WITH TIM STENOVEC. TIM: IS IT FRIDAY? CAROL: IT WAS SUCH A CRAZY WEEK. TIM: I KNOW THAT. CAROL: THANK YOU, NEWSROOM. THE U.N. GENERAL ASSEMBLY, A LOT OF PROGRAMMING, INTERVIEWS, COORDINATION, AND AGAIN BRINGING IN PIZZAS FOR EVERYBODY WHICH WAS KIND OF COOL. TIM: EXCUSE ME? CAROL: YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED IT. YOU WERE ON AIR, I WAS ON AIR FOR A LITTLE BIT. TIM: I AM JUST LEARNING ABOUT THIS AT 2:00?
在彭博各平台上，我们正在进行直播。卡罗尔·马萨尔与蒂姆·斯滕诺维克在一起。蒂姆：今天是周五吗？卡罗尔：这周简直太疯狂了。蒂姆：我知道。卡罗尔：谢谢新闻室。联合国大会期间，有很多节目编排、采访、协调工作，还给大家送披萨，这还挺酷的。蒂姆：什么？卡罗尔：你可能错过了。你一直在直播，我也播了一会儿。蒂姆：我到现在（两点）才知道这事？
CAROL: YOU APPARENTLY DID NOT GET THE PIZZA MEMO. IT JUST KIND OF HAPPENED. IT WENT QUICKLY. TIM: THAT IS FINE, THAT IS ENOUGH. CAROL: I DID NOT HAVE ANY PIZZA EITHER, IF THAT MAKES YOU HAPPIER. TIM: DON'T WORRY, THAT IS FINE. THIS HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING WEEK FOR EQUITIES AS WELL. TAKING A LOOK AT HOW THE EQUITY MARKET HAS DONE THIS WEEK, UP 1.2% ON THE S&P. THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE UP MORE THAN 2%. CAROL: I ALWAYS THINK YOU ARE SMART.
卡罗尔：你显然没收到披萨通知。事情发生得有点突然，很快就结束了。蒂姆：没关系，这样就够了。卡罗尔：如果这样能让你开心点的话，我其实也没吃到披萨。蒂姆：别担心，没事。股市本周也经历了一段有趣的时期。让我们看看股市本周的表现：标普500指数上涨1.2%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨超过2%。卡罗尔：我一直觉得你很聪明。
YOU REMINDING EVERYBODY -- NOT SMARTT --T ENOUGH TO GET PIZZA. CAROL: WATCHING ENERGY PRICES AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR TREASURIES, THE MARKET HAS MOVED WHEN IT COMES TO ENERGY AND INFLATION. YOU KEEP POINTING THAT OUT AND I THINK IT IS A SMART OBSERVATION. TIM: THE EQUITY MARKET TYPICALLY WHEN WE SEE RATES RISE LIKE THIS, WE MIGHT NOT SEE THE EQUITY MARKET DO WHAT IT HAS BEEN DOING. YOU KNOW WHAT? IT IS PRICING OUT SIX MONTHS IN ADVANCE.
你提醒每个人——不是不够聪明——而是足够聪明到去吃披萨。卡罗尔：关注能源价格及其对国债的影响，市场在能源和通胀方面有所反应。你不断指出这一点，我认为这是一个明智的观察。蒂姆：通常情况下，当我们看到利率像这样上升时，股市可能不会继续维持目前的走势。你知道吗？市场已经提前六个月定价了这一预期。
CAROL: MICRON COMES OUT NEXT MONTH. THAT WILL BE A BIG TEST OF WHETHER ALL OF THIS CONTINUES. WE HAVE A LOT COMING YOUR WAY OVER THE NEXT 60 MINUTES, REALLY OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS ON "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY." OUR GLOBAL VIEWPOINT ON THE WORLD BECAUSE OF THE U.N. GENERAL ASSEMBLY CONTINUES. THE PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE A GUY ON A TWO THE U.N., ONE OF THE LEADING CANDIDATES TO BECOME THE NEXT SECRETARY-GENERAL, WILL BE JOINING TIM AND MEAT IN THE NEXT FEW MOMENTS.
卡罗尔：美光科技下个月将发布财报。这将是检验这一切是否持续的重要测试。在接下来的60分钟内，尤其是接下来的三个小时，《彭博商业周刊日报》将带来大量精彩内容。由于联合国大会，我们对世界的全球视角将持续呈现。联合国常驻代表、下一任秘书长的主要候选人之一将在稍后加入蒂姆和我的对话。
TIM: ONE OF THE TOP DIPLOMATS WARNS PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFFS ARE STIFLING. LOOKING FORWARD TO THAT CONVERSATION. CAROL: TWO OF THIS ERA'S BIGGEST STORIES, ENERGY AFTERSHOCKS AND LIVING IN A 5% WORLD WITH RATES. WE SHOULD TALK ABOUT MARKETS. TIM: LET'S GET OVER TO CHARLIE PELLETT. CHARLIE: I WANT TO BEGIN WITH A DEVELOPING STORY. BRIGHT LINE FILING FOR CHAPTER 11 BANKRUPTCY IN NEW JERSEY. THAT IS THE HEADLINE. MORE DETAILS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
TIM：一位顶级外交官警告说，特朗普总统的关税政策正在产生抑制作用。期待这次对话。CAROL：本期两大重磅新闻是能源市场的余震以及利率处于5%的世界中生活。我们应该谈谈市场情况。TIM：让我们连线查理·佩莱特。CHARLIE：我想从一个正在发展的故事开始。Bright Line在新泽西州申请第11章破产保护。这是头条新闻。下午会有更多细节。
DOWN, S&P, AND NASDAQ ALL ADVANCING. CLOSE TO SESSION HIGHS, UP .5%. CRUDE OIL IS MOVING LOWER ON NEGOTIATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST. DOW INDUSTRIALS UP .8%. THE NASDAQ UP BY ABOUT .5%. LOOKING AT THE TREASURY YIELDS, THE TWO-YEAR 4.88% WITH A FIVE-YEAR HOLDING ABOUT 5%. THE 10-YEAR 5.19%. THE 30-YEAR ALSO GRABBING YOUR ATTENTION UP 5.51%. SPOT GOLD UP .2%. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE DOWN 2.6%. BRENT LOWER BY 2.5%. NEW JERSEY LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR DALE CALDWELL WILL RESIGN AFTER AN INTERNAL INVESTIGATION SUBSTANTIATED ALLEGATIONS HE SEXUALLY HARASSED A FEMALE STAFFER AND REPEATEDLY VIOLATED STATE ETHICS RULES, THAT ACCORDING TO THE NEW JERSEY GLOBE.
道指、标普500指数和纳斯达克指数均上涨，接近日内高点，涨幅为0.5%。由于中东谈判，原油价格走低。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨0.8%。纳斯达克指数上涨约0.5%。查看国债收益率，2年期为4.88%，5年期约为5%。10年期为5.19%。30年期也吸引你的注意，上涨至5.51%。现货黄金上涨0.2%。西德克萨斯中质原油下跌2.6%。布伦特原油下跌2.5%。新泽西州副州长戴尔·考德尔将在内部调查证实他性骚扰一名女性员工并多次违反州道德规则后辞职，据《新泽西环球报》报道。
RECAPPING, S&P 500 UP ABOUT .5%. TIM AND CAROL, THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. CAROL: THANK YOU SO MUCH. THE E.U. IN A GENERAL -- THE U.N. GENERAL ASSEMBLY UNDERWAY PRESIDED OVER BY ANTONIO GUTERRES WHOSE TERM ENDS DECEMBER 31. WE HAVE ONE OF THE LEADING CANDIDATES TO BECOME THE NEXT SECRETARY-GENERAL. SHE IS GUY HONEST PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE TO THE -- SHE IS GUY ON NOT -- GUYANA'S PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE TO THE YU.N.
回顾一下，标普500指数上涨约0.5%。TIM和CAROL，这是一则彭博商业快讯。CAROL：非常感谢。联合国大会正在进行中，由安东尼奥·古特雷斯主持，他的任期将于12月31日结束。我们有一位有望成为下一任秘书长的主要候选人。她是圭亚那常驻联合国代表。她是圭亚那常驻联合国代表。
YOU AND THE CANDIDATES KNOW WHO LEADS THE U.N. DEPENDENT ON WHETHER A CANDIDATE CAN AVOID OPPOSITION BY ANY OF THE FIVE V TELLING MEMBERS. HOW ARE YOU -- VETOING MEMBERS. HOW ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT THEM GOING FORWARD?
你和候选人都知道，谁领导联合国取决于候选人能否避免五个常任理事国中的任何一个投反对票。你是怎么考虑他们未来的行动的？
THANK YOU. THE DISCUSSIONS SO FAR WITH THE FIVE MEMBERS YOU MENTIONED AND THE ENTIRE MEMBERSHIP HAVE BEEN REALLY GOOD. I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT FOR US TO HAVE A CLOSE COLLABORATION. THESE ARE VERY IMPORTANT COUNTRIES. ALL 193 MEMBERS ARE IMPORTANT, BUT THESE ARE FIVE IMPORTANT COUNTRIES AND ARE GIVEN CERTAIN PRIVILEGES. IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE SECRETARY-GENERAL TO BE ABLE TO NAVIGATE THE CHASMS WHEN THEY ARE THERE WITH THE MEMBERS.
谢谢。到目前为止，与你提到的五个成员国以及所有成员国的讨论都非常好。我认为对我们来说进行紧密合作很重要。这些是非常重要的国家。所有193个成员国都很重要，但这五个国家尤为重要，并被赋予某些特权。秘书长能够跨越与成员国之间的鸿沟非常重要。
I HAVE SERVED ON THE SECURITY COUNSEL AND I HAVE WORKED CLOSELY WITH THE P5. THEY KNOW ME AND HOW I OPERATE. I HELD THE POSITION OF LEADING THE DELEGATION SO I HELD THE PRESIDENCY TWICE. OF COURSE, MY COUNTRY HELD THE PRESIDENCY BUT I HAD TO NAVIGATE DIFFICULT MOMENTS DURING THAT TIME. THEY HAVE SEEN THAT AS WELL. I LOOK FORWARD TO IT SHOULD I BE APPOINTED. TIM: PULLING PUTS YOU IN SECOND PLACE IN THE RACE FOR SECRETARY-GENERAL.
我曾担任安理会成员，并与五常密切合作。他们了解我以及我的工作方式。我曾担任代表团团长，因此两次担任轮值主席。当然，我国曾担任主席国，但在那段时期我必须应对艰难时刻。他们也看到了这一点。如果我被任命，我对此充满期待。蒂姆：目前你排在秘书长竞选的第二位。
WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE HURDLES TO GETTING TO FIRST PLACE AND WHAT YOU PLAN TO DO IN THE COMING MONTHS?
你认为通往第一名的障碍是什么？你计划在未来几个月做些什么？
IT IS UP TO THE SECURITY COUNCIL AT THE END OF THE DAY TO RECOMMEND TO THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY. I HAVE OUTLINED MY VISION. OVER THE LAST WEEKS, I VISITED SEVERAL CAPITALS. I HAVE SPOKEN WITH ALL OF THE AUTHORITIES OF THE 15 MEMBERS. I HAVE ANSWERED THEIR QUESTIONS. THEY KNOW WHAT I STAND FOR AND WHAT I BRING. AT THE END OF THE DAY, I THINK YOU NEED A SECRETARY-GENERAL THAT WOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD BRIDGES AND BRING PEOPLE TOGETHER BUT WILL ALSO HAVE THE ENERGY, VERSATILITY, AND DISCERNMENT YOU NEED IN THE CHIEF ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICER BECAUSE THAT IS THE DESCRIPTION IN THE CHARTER OF SECRETARY-GENERAL.
归根结底，由安全理事会向大会提出推荐。我已经阐述了我的愿景。在过去几周里，我访问了几个首都。我与所有15个理事国的负责人进行了交谈。我回答了他们的提问。他们知道我的立场和我能带来什么。归根结底，我认为你需要一位能够搭建桥梁、凝聚人心，同时具备首席行政官所需精力、多面性和判断力的秘书长，因为这是《宪章》对秘书长的定义。
CAROL: MANY HAVE DESCRIBED THE POSITION AS A THANKLESS JOB. I GUESS THE QUESTION IS, WHY DO YOU WANT IT?
卡罗尔：许多人将这一职位描述为吃力不讨好的工作。我想问题是，你为什么想要这个职位？
MY LIFE HAS BEEN ABOUT SERVING. I APPROACH EACH ONE OF THOSE POSITIONS OF SERVICE THAT YOU DO NOT DO IT FOR THANKS, BUT IF YOU DO GET THANKS, IT IS A BONUS. BUT YOU DO IT FOR SERVICE. I BELIEVE THE UNITED NATIONS. I BELIEVE IT IS A FORCE FOR GOOD. I BELIEVE IT HAS CHALLENGES BUT WE CAN MAKE IT BETTER. THAT IS MY APPROACH TO IT. NOT LOOKING FOR THANKS FOR TO DISPLAY ANY EGO BUT MAKE SURE WE SOLVE ISSUES WORKING CLOSELY TOGETHER.
我的人生一直致力于服务。我对待每一个服务职位的态度是：你不是为了感谢而做，但如果得到了感谢，那只是额外的奖励。你是为了服务而做。我相信联合国。我相信它是向善的力量。我相信它面临挑战，但我们可以让它变得更好。这就是我的态度。不是为了寻求感谢或炫耀自我，而是确保我们通过紧密合作解决问题。
PEACE AND DEVELOPING AND HUMAN RIGHTS. THIS IS HOW I WOULD APPROACH IT. CAROL: BOTH OF US ARE LISTENING CLOSELY TO YOUR WORDS. YOU HAVE SAID THE U.N.'S PROBLEM IS NOT A LACK OF COMMITMENT BUT A FAILURE TO DELIVER. WHAT IS ONE THING YOU WOULD STOP DOING AS SECRETARY-GENERAL?
和平、发展与人权。这就是我处理这些事务的方式。卡罗尔：我们都在仔细聆听你的话语。你曾说联合国的問題不是缺乏承诺，而是未能兑现成果。作为秘书长，你会停止做的一件事是什么？
I HAVE TO LOOK AT WHERE THERE ARE DUPLICATIONS. HAVE TO STOP DUPLICATIONS AND WHERE THERE ARE OVERLAPS WE HAVE TO STREAMLINE. WE HAVE MANY AGENCIES DEALING WITH DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE SEVERAL OF THESE AGENCIES DEALING WITH DEVELOPMENT. WHEN YOU TALK TO THE MINISTERS AND LEADERS ON THE GROUND, THEY WANT TO SEE MORE OF THE DELIVERY ON THE GROUND. WE HAVE TO FOCUS ON THAT TO MAKE SURE WE HAVE A VERY GOOD RATIO OF WHAT WE DO NEW YORK AND WHAT WE DO ON THE GROUND.
我必须审视存在重复的地方。必须停止重复，并在存在重叠的地方进行精简。我们有许多机构从事发展工作。我们有多个此类机构从事发展工作。当你与一线的外长和领导人交谈时，他们希望看到更多的一线交付成果。我们必须专注于此，以确保我们在纽约所做的工作与在一线所做的工作之间保持非常好的比例。
IF WE LOOK AT THE BUDGET, THE REGULAR BUDGET, QUITE A BIT OF THAT GOES INTO STAFFING. WE HAVE TO HAVE A GOOD BALANCE BETWEEN WHAT GOES INTO STAFFING AND WHAT GOES INTO PROGRAMMING. THESE ARE SOME OF THE THINGS I WOULD LOOK AT IN TERMS OF HOW WE DELIVER ON DEVELOPMENT. THE SECRETARY-GENERAL HAS CERTAIN TOOLS AT HER DISPOSAL FOR THIS PROCESS, MEDIATION. I WOULD WANT TO OFFER THOSE TOOLS TO THE PARTIES IN CONFLICT RIGHT NOW.
如果我们查看预算，特别是经常预算，其中相当一部分用于人员配备。我们必须在人员配备和方案规划之间取得良好平衡。这些是我在考虑如何落实发展工作时会关注的一些方面。秘书长在这一过程中拥有某些工具，包括斡旋。我希望现在就将这些工具提供给冲突各方。
WE HAVE THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF CONFLICTS SINCE WORLD WAR II, SO WE NEED TO MAKE A DENT IN ENDING AND PREVENTING CONFLICTS. THE WORLD IS WAITING FOR GOOD NEWS ON THIS. I INTEND TO WORK CLOSELY WITH ALL TO SEE HOW WE CAN MOVE THE NEEDLE ON THAT. I AM NOT OBLIVIOUS THAT SOME ARE VERY DIFFICULT. THE U.N. WAS NOT MADE FOR FAIRWEATHER, AND WE HAVE TO TRY. TIM: I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY, AS WE SAY ALL THE TIME, A VERY COMPLICATED TIME WHEN IT COMES TO GEOPOLITICS GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED IN VENEZUELA, WHAT IS GOING ON BETWEEN ISRAEL AND THE U.S., AND IRAN, AND RUSSIA'S INVASION OF UKRAINE, AMONG OTHER CONFLICT AROUND THE WORLD.
自第二次世界大战以来，我们面临的冲突数量达到最高水平，因此我们需要在结束和预防冲突方面取得实质性进展。世界正等待这方面的佳音。我打算与所有人密切合作，看看我们如何能推动这一进程取得进展。我并非不知晓其中一些情况非常困难。联合国并非为顺境而设，我们必须努力尝试。TIM：我认为可以说，正如我们一直所说的那样，在地缘政治方面，这是一个非常复杂的时期，鉴于委内瑞拉发生的事件、以色列与美国及伊朗之间的局势，以及俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，加上全球其他地区的冲突。
I'M CURIOUS ABOUT YOUR POSITION COMING FROM ONE OF THE SMALLER MEMBER STATE
我很好奇你来自一个较小的会员国，对此持何种立场
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力