Meta九月涨36%创纪录，Anthropic签120亿美元算力协议

Com for today and only two bells until your weekend. It's 30 minutes until the start of trading. I'm Danny Burger and I'm Mike ball. Strap in boomers open interest starts now. Coming up, bonds stabilize after a brutal weeks drop in. Indeed raising questions about a fundamental shift in the market and another sign of relief oil retreats. As the U.S. and Iran explore a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Plus, anthropic adds to the data set are sending spending spree with another multibillion dollar deal.

Some of the stocks we're looking at meta what a week it has had. They are slightly higher in the premarket, but the stock has jumped 36% in September following the release of its muse personal AI assistant. That is its best monthly performance since 2013. Less than six weeks ago, many shares were down 18% for the year in the wake of a disappointing revenue forecast in late July that led to this existential crisis. What is meta?

Maybe they're figuring that out, but we cannot ignore what's happening in the bond market right now. Again, more calm today. But yields on treasuries have surged past high after next getting to the highest levels, at least for the ten year since post 2007. For the 30 year it was 2004. Um, Mike, all of this leading to this idea. One was this a bond market that was just offsides, that was mispricing something, and a fundamental shift is happening.

Or was this just a few hedge funds that blew up and got margin called a little bit of a little bit of B. We definitely saw spec positions going into this week from delayed data. Let's say that. But you know, it was definitely in a position where everyone was expecting shorts. Funny enough, not getting ahead of the dialogue here. Next week we have jobs. You're starting to see actually a build in shorts again, because this is again about growth.

This is about the fed changing their tone. We had Williams today is all kind of kicked off with Goolsbee. We had bar we had Barkin. We had Paulson. These are people we don't hear from a lot. All of them talking about this supply shock is now more sustained. Growth is stronger. This isn't normal. You know, this is now a demand pull. This is supply driven. This is a bigger picture of inflation and it's a bigger worry. And they are all coming together.

And I'm a little worried about groupthink because it's kind of interesting that all of a sudden one week we all get this big change. And for months and months we were missing our target there. And now suddenly we're getting this chorus. But look, you couldn't ignore the data this week as far as the SPX is. That really was a driver. And it's funny because as we talked about, it's not usually. Yes. I wonder if that's the way we need to approach all of this with fed speakers we usually don't care about.

We're going to get University of Michigan 10 a.m. today. The final numbers for that, if something is changed now and how we approach these, usually one off data points or speeches from various fed officials. Yeah. So not to get too wonky. So far a lot of this has been not really on inflation expectations worries break evens of sort of not move. This is real rates again growth and fed expectations. So this kind of University of Michigan inflation expectation worry we got from the preliminary which we saw jump into the one one year.

Is something we'll watch to see if it gets revised higher. But that kind of narratives, and they're still somewhat anchored at the consumer level. But there are worries. You know it's a good point. Real yields ten year. Real yields up nearly 1% so far this year. Break evens nine basis points a complete mismatch there. So one of the things that of course has been driving all of this is what's happening in oil. Oil prices are dropping today as U.S. and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Bloomberg's Charles Galvan covers oil and shipping. Charles, we've seen so many head fakes. Is this one different? Yeah, we've been here before. And you know we are seeing prices ease a little bit. But we're in the triple digits. And we're seeing this coming off the level of gains as much as 7% over the past two sessions. So I think there's a little bit of relief. But at the same time, this isn't the first time that we've seen talks being reported on, only for them to collapse.

And we're still up in the rent market over 70% this year. So I think we're just going to have to wait and see what happens. Charles, uh, ministration me talking a lot about the diesel export banner. We've been talking about an expectation of the UN to clarify their position, bringing a lot of tension again to the product market. Now, when we look at the Middle East, we look at Russia. There's still really no flow coming in that part of it.

So yes, barrels may get out. We certainly saw the Saudis get more through the strait as the pipeline got shut down. That was positive. But it's really still all about product, right? Yeah. That's true. And, you know, we are seeing some, uh, near-term tightness in the Brent market right now. But the big story as it has been, is in the product market. And I think that everyone is really nervously waiting to see what will come out of the administration.

Uh, as far as a diesel export ban could go, uh, because the implications of that could be pretty big, right. Um, and it's also kind of unclear what exactly that would achieve, um, for the US administration itself. So, you know, we've seen a lot of, um, analysts and traders saying that the expectation might be that, yeah, we'd see us crude prices ease in the near term, but over the long run that could be driving up global prices across the board.

So it's unclear how long that relief really would be and if it would be achieving the aim of lowering those US, uh, diesel prices, uh, long enough for that to really be a tangible, uh, win. Charles, really great to have you on with us this week. That's Bloomberg's Charles Greven on the latest on this energy market. Elsewhere in tech, Akamai is landing a massive AI infrastructure deal with anthropic worth nearly $12 billion over seven years.

The agreement will give anthropic more compute capacity for its AI workloads and could ultimately expand to roughly $20 billion. Bloomberg's global head of tech research, Mandeep Singh, joins us. And as always, even though anthropic is in public yet it's still moving around public companies. Tell us about this deal, Mandeep, and what we know. Well, we know Nvidia has been locking all the capacity on the, you know, chip side.

You know, preparing the likes of TSMC and, uh, their suppliers. It feels like anthropic is doing the same when it comes to, you know, their supply chain. And in this case, they want to get more CPU and edge capacity by signing a seven year deal. We know they, uh, signed, uh, deal with space X to get the GPU compute and, uh, look, with agent tech. I, uh, and I think the success of muse, it's pretty obvious that all these frontier model labs want to go towards more agent tech offerings.

And if you have an agent tech offering, you need more CPU capacity. And that's where you know, and Akamai or Fastly or, you know, all of these companies in the cloud space come in. And in terms of supplying that edge and TPU capacity. So that's really the rationale here. Mandeep, all week we've been kind of talking about the execution now coming much more into focus across the whole AI CapEx stack. And even at the model level.

Now, we're looking at 5.5 billion and expected CapEx here. That's six times the 25 level. I mean, where as an investor, do I actually see confirmation that this is being done responsibly and that we're going to get an IRR that's going to be acceptable? Yeah. Look, when you have a large company which is a leading model provider ready to commit, you know, uh, I mean, basically they are telling you the, uh, you know, the implied IRR, uh, per year that anthropic is going to be paying