Kalshi CEO：预测市场是金融交易所而非赌博
'We want more guardrails,' Kalshi CEO says as calls grow for prediction market regulation
S CONTINUE TO EXPAND, THEY ARE DRAWING ATTENTION IN WASHINGTON, D.C., AND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AMNA: COMPANIES LIKE KALSHI AND POLYMARKET ALLOW PEOPLE TO TRADE CONTRACTS TIED TO THE OUTCOMES OF REAL-WORLD EVENTS, INCLUDING ELECTIONS, BUT THE CALL FOR REGULATION IS GROWING LOUDER. OUR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT LIZ LANDERS HAS MORE. LIZ: PREDICTION MARKETS ARE REGULATED BY THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION, AND CAN OPERATE NATIONWIDE.
它们持续扩张，正引起华盛顿特区及全美各地的关注。阿娜：Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等公司允许人们交易与真实世界事件（包括选举）结果挂钩的合约，但要求监管的声音日益高涨。我们的白宫记者 Liz Landers 带来详细报道。Liz：预测市场由商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）监管，并可在全国范围内运营。
BUT MANY ARGUE THEY SHOULD BE SUBJECT TO STATE GAMBLING LAWS. MEMBERS OF CONGRESS HAVE ALSO CALLED FOR GUARDRAILS AS THE INDUSTRY EXPANDS. FOR A PERSPECTIVE FROM ONE OF THE LARGEST PREDICTION MARKET PLATFORMS, I'M JOINED BY KALSHI CEO, TAREK MANSOUR. WELCOME, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. TAREK: THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. LIZ: EXPLAIN TO US. WHAT DOES KALSHI DO? TAREK: PREDICTION MARKETS ARE A FINANCIAL MARKET THAT FUNCTION LIKE ANY OTHER FUTURES MARKET THAT MATCHES BUYERS AND SELLERS TO BASICALLY TRADE SOMETHING.
但许多人认为它们应受各州赌博法律的约束。国会议员也呼吁在该行业扩张时设立护栏。为了从最大的预测市场平台之一获取观点，我与 Kalshi 首席执行官 Tarek Mansour 连线。欢迎，感谢您加入我们。Tarek：感谢您的邀请。Liz：请向我们解释一下，Kalshi 是做什么的？Tarek：预测市场是一种金融市场，其运作方式与其他任何期货市场类似，通过匹配买卖双方来基本交易某种标的。
IN THE CASE OF PREDICTION MARKETS IT IS TRADING ON A BROADER SET OF THINGS, APPLYING THE FINANCIAL MARKET STRUCTURE BUT ON A MUCH WIDER SET OF TOPICS. IN OUR CASE LIKE WEATHER, POLITICS, ELECTIONS, SPORTS, ECONOMICS, AI, TECH, ALL THESE, PEOPLE ARE EXPOSED TO, INTERESTED IN AND WOULD LIKE TO FORECAST AND HAVE A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION ON. LIZ: YOU ALL HAVE BEEN UNDER SCRUTINY FOR HOW YOUR MARKETPLACE IS SET UP. THE NEW YORK STATE ATTORNEY GENERAL SUED.
就预测市场而言，它是对更广泛的一系列事物进行交易，将金融市场的结构应用于范围更广的主题。在我们的案例中，如天气、政治、选举、体育、经济、人工智能、科技等，这些都是人们所接触、感兴趣并希望进行预测且存在不同意见的话题。Liz：你们一直因市场平台的设置方式而受到审视。纽约州总检察长提起了诉讼。
ATTORNEY GENERAL LETITIA JAMES SET AT THE TIME THAT NEW YORK'S GAMBLING LAWS PROTECT CHILDREN FROM UNDERAGE BEDDING AND HELP COMBAT GAMBLING ADDICTION NO MATTER WHAT THEY CALL THEMSELVES. PREDICTION MARKETS LIKE KALSHI ARE GAMBLING PLATFORMS PLAIN AND SIMPLE. WHY ARE THEY WRONG? TAREK: AN EXCHANGE IS A PLACE THAT MATCHES BUYERS AND SELLERS AND IT IS THE PLACE THAT MEETS A VERY LARGE DIVERSITY OF PARTICIPANTS COMPETING AGAINST EACH OTHER TO FIGURE OUT THE PRICE WHICH ENABLES PEOPLE TO TAKE A POSITION ON SOMETHING OR HEDGING AGAINST SOMETHING.
时任纽约州总检察长的 Letitia James 表示，纽约州的赌博法律保护儿童免受未成年赌博的危害，并帮助打击赌博成瘾，无论这些平台自称什么。像 Kalshi 这样的预测市场就是简单的赌博平台。为什么这是错误的？Tarek：交易所是一个匹配买卖双方场所，它是一个汇聚大量多样化参与者相互竞争以发现价格的场所，这使得人们能够对某事建立头寸或进行对冲。
AND THAT IS THE KEY DIFFERENCE, THAT IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM GAMBLING WHERE THE BUSINESS MODEL IS THE GAMBLING BUSINESS MODEL. WHERE THE HOUSE BEST AGAINST YOUR CUSTOMERS. THE REVENUE OF THE HOUSE EQUALS THE CUSTOMERS LOSSES AND THE HOUSE WHAT IT DOES OVER TIME AS IT FIGURES OUT WHO WINS AND BANS THEM AND FIGURE OUT PEOPLE THAT LOSE AND FIGURE OUT HOW TO TARGET THEM SPECIFICALLY TO KEEP THEM COMING. THAT DIFFERENCE IS CRITICAL.
这正是关键区别，这与赌博截然不同，后者的商业模式是赌博商业模式，即庄家与客户对赌。庄家的收入等于客户的损失，而庄家所做的是随着时间推移找出谁赢了并将他们禁入，找出谁输了并确定如何专门针对他们以确保持续吸引他们参与。这一差异至关重要。
THEY NEED TO FIGURE OUT WHO THE LOSERS ARE AND KEEP THEM COMING WHICH CREATES ADDICTION ISSUES IN ALL THESE ISSUES THAT ARE VERY IMPORTANT. KALSHI DOESN'T MAKE MORE OR LESS MONEY FROM WINNERS OR LOSERS. IT IS AN OPEN MARKET AND THAT IS A KEY, CRITICAL DISTINCTION. LIZ: ONE OF THE POINTS SHE MAKES IN THAT COMMENT IS THE EFFECT ON YOUNG PEOPLE. WHAT DO YOU SAY THAT THIS IS HURTING AND ADDICTING YOUNG PEOPLE? TAREK: TO BE CLEAR AND THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS GOING ON ON TWITTER AND SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE NEWS.
他们需要弄清楚谁是输家，并让他们持续参与，这会在所有这些非常重要的问题上造成成瘾问题。Kalshi 从赢家或输家那里赚到的钱并不更多或更少。这是一个开放的市场，这是一个关键且至关重要的区别。Liz：她在该评论中提出的一个观点是对年轻人的影响。你认为这对年轻人造成伤害并使他们上瘾吗？Tarek：为了澄清，Twitter、社交媒体和新闻上正在发生很多事情。
ALL OF THESE THINGS ARE NOT TRUE. THE LAW DOESN'T LEAD US AND WE WOULD NEVER DO IT, ALLOW MIN
所有这些说法都是不真实的。法律不会引导我们，我们也绝不会这样做，允许未成年人（参与）。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力