伊朗拒开霍尔木兹海峡致油价波动，美拟限柴油出口

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krner. Oil prices spiked in New York trading after Iran said it will not allow freedom of navigation through the straight of Hormuz while US sanctions and that US naval blockade remain in place. President Masud Peshkin said, "Iran is ready to resume discussions with the US, but it will not respond to threats." Peshkin made these remarks during an address to the UN General Assembly.

In New York trading, we had WTI up about 1.8%, although now in Asian trading, we're down about 9/10en of 1%. Separately today, the Trump administration said it's working with oil refiners to voluntarily curb their exports of US diesel fuel as an alternative to an outright ban on sending fuel abroad. For a closer look at what we're seeing in the energy complex, let's bring in Bloomberg's Stevenchinsky. He is team leader for the Asia Energy Group and he joins from our studios in Singapore.

Thank you for being here. A lot going on in the energy space right now. give me your overview of what you're seeing in the price action.

Yeah, I mean I think for for oil uh you've seen prices kind of come down uh over the last few weeks. We're now near about $102 for for Brent and while there it's a bit choppy uh you're going some up days, some down days. I think the market is generally looking at at the straight of Hormuz and how much oil is actually flowing through it. Uh Bessant told uh Fox News that 17 million barrels are sometimes transiting horm which is basically back to normal levels.

There are some analysts that are putting that daily volume more around 8 million barrels per day um earlier this month but certainly it does seem that oil continues to flow through. Um and so that's that's kind of keeping oil prices from the high. There's also this expectation that perhaps the US and Iran will make some sort of deal to to allow further flows. Of course, we're not there yet clearly uh from the statements from the Iranian um officials uh but that is that is something deep in the mind of of traders.

And lastly, diesel um the the market is very much focused on this product uh because it's a it's a workhorse fuel. prices in the United States are are essentially at a record high and as you mentioned the US is considering uh this potential ban to help ease prices at home. Uh the US is a major exporter so that could potentially increase prices from South America to Europe all the way in Asia where I sit right here in Singapore.

So on Wednesday, Chinese President Xiinping landed in the US for a 3-day visit, and there had been some conversation as to whether or not President Xi would speak to President Trump and maybe Trump would work with Xi in finding a solution uh or some sort of remedy in terms of the tension that the US has been dealing with on the Iranian side. Is that possible in your mind? are analysts. I know it's getting into the realm of geopolitics, but I'm curious as to whether analysts are expressing any sort of optimism that she could help Trump try to kind of find a little common ground or maybe plant the seed for some type of resolution here.

You know, I think certainly um there's there's the possibility that that they could try to find an avenue. Um, I think the the challenge that I've looked at over the last uh few months since this war began in in late February is it seems that China isn't taking a super hands-on approach in terms of resolving the conflict. As although uh China does depend on a lot of oil and gas uh that went through the straight of Hormuz, they've been sort of dealing with this war and this conflict uh better than other countries.

They've had massive oil reserves that they were able to tap on earlier this year. Um they've also been able to reduce uh their LG imports from that region and instead shift more to pipeline supply as well as domestic gas production. Um so whether or not the US and Trump uh and and and uh she are able to make some sort of path for for a uh a resolution in Iran I think does seem to be uh unclear. uh it it is most certainly going to be a topic of discussion.

I think one area that you could potentially see the the two countries coming to some sort of agreement on is a trade deal that would allow for China to reduce or remove tariffs on American energy products. And this would actually have a wider impact on the market. Right now, for example, liqufied natural gas, China has a 15% tariff on US LG, and they've been actually reselling a lot of that US LG into into the spot market um because they don't want to take it back home.

They have long-term contracts with US LG export projects. So, instead, they could take a lot of that US LG back into China, and one that would reduce the trade deficit to a degree. that would make Trump happy, but it would also um potentially allow for China to reduce purchases from the spot market elsewhere. It would it would help rebalance the market to a degree and potentially maybe even um help help push down prices if if something is seen there.

So, Stephen, we learned earlier today from Secretary of State Marco Rubio that President Trump has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit at the President's Complex in Florida. That will happen in December. help me understand where we are right now in terms of the Russia part of the oil story. I know I know there have been a number of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure particularly where the refineries are concerned and I think that's a critical part of the diesel story.

Maybe you can give me a sense of where things are right now in terms of Russia's overall oil production and even some of the distillates. So if there is any sort of way where the US and and uh Russia and Ukraine can come to the table to try to solve this this ongoing war that's been ongoing since 2022. This would be um quite monumental I think for the oil market. Um one thing that's been underappreciated has been the constant Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia and it is having global ramifications now.

Uh they've been hitting uh refineries. some of those refineries uh produce diesel. So, Russia's been forced to reduce their their diesel production and and um also keep diesel supply at home. They have their own restrictions on exports. Likewise, in the Baltic Sea, um Ukraine has continuously targeted ships and ports and that is a a major um port for exporting Russian oil and products and so less oil and products have been coming to the market further tightening supply.

So if in some way um Trump were able to make a an agreement with Russia uh and and bring Ukraine to the table as well where they can result in a in a a peace deal or at least ceasefire then certainly you would see more Russian uh flows of oil, diesel and other products coming into the market easing easing the situation. But I I do want to note that according to analysts and traders I talked to, there is still a large chasm to be met here.

And um and you also have to get the EU involved. Um they're banning uh Russian uh oil, sorry, Russian LG and gas imports from from uh January. And so they're also trying to tighten the screws on on Russia. But if there is a wider peace agreement or ceasefire, you could see uh more of that oil coming to the market and helping to push prices lower. So much of what we see in the energy complex has to do with seasonality.

So we're approaching winter now in the northern hemisphere. Where are we in terms of the supply story? Are we going to be okay when it comes to things like heating oil and LNG for heating?

Yeah. So that's a really good question. Um and and the answer is a bit more nuanced. You and I uh you know we we I sit in Singapore, you're in the United States, we will be fine. uh developed countries will be able to get the fuel that they need because their consumers are able to pay for it. Uh if our utility bills go up, um that's that

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