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特朗普与习近平即将会晤,AI监管成焦点

Trump Awaits Xi's US Visit

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中美高层互动叠加美债收益率飙升与股市回调,宏观变量共振。建议关注地缘政治进展及利率走势对市场流动性的影响。

Live from Washington, D.C. this is Balance of Power with Joe, Matthew, and Kailey Lines. Counting down to the summit and the state Dinner with I on the menu. Welcome to the Wednesday edition. As artificial intelligence leads the agenda in the Trump XI summit about to begin this evening, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kailey Leinz in Washington, where she will be touching down hours from now. Kelly I is, of course, on the agenda domestically, but it's something Washington hasn't been able to get its arms around yet.

来自华盛顿的现场直播,这里是《权力平衡》节目,由乔、马修和凯莉·莱因斯主持。倒计时迎接峰会及国宴,菜单上有我。欢迎收看周三版节目。随着人工智能成为今晚即将开始的特朗普与习近平峰会的主要议程,我是乔·马修,与凯莉·莱因斯在华盛顿一起,她将在几小时后抵达这里。凯莉,人工智能当然在国内议程上,但这也是华盛顿尚未能完全掌控的问题。

Know, as President Trump has pushed back on the need to regulate this technology, doing so on the floor of the United Nations General Assembly just yesterday, suggesting he rejects a push for a global regime to rein in artificial intelligence. He wants to encourage it and win the race against China. Which brings us back to the summit that will be happening with XI and his greeting of XI Jinping at the airport at Andrews Air Force Base this evening.

要知道,特朗普总统在昨天联合国大会的发言中,反驳了监管这项技术的必要性,暗示他拒绝建立全球机制来约束人工智能的推动。他希望鼓励人工智能发展,并赢得与中国的竞争。这让我们回到今晚将在安德鲁斯空军基地举行的峰会,以及他对习近平的迎接。

Yep. That's right. And that will tick off a whole series of events that may or may not be televised. We're still waiting to hear what happens to TV pool coverage at the white House, a case that's going to court today, uh, just about 2.5 hours from now. Could resolve in a ruling this evening or not. Kelly, as these news organizations CNN, MSS now Politico still banned from the white House and that has resulted in a solidarity among TV networks to provide no pool TV coverage and something that would probably be considered good news by President XI.

是的,没错。那将开启一系列可能或不可能电视转播的活动。我们仍在等待白宫电视池报道的消息,这个案件今天将上法庭,大约两个半小时后开庭。可能今晚会有裁决,也可能没有。凯莉,由于这些新闻机构,如CNN、MSNBC、Politico,仍被禁止进入白宫,这导致电视网络团结一致,不提供电视池报道,这或许会被习近平主席视为好消息。

Yeah, and perhaps by President Trump as well. Maybe not not having any TV cameras there. But he did tell CNN in New York that they shouldn't be here covering him in the first place. So he still seems to be holding firm, at least his rejection of certain outlets. But it is going to be up to the courts to decide. And the president has suggested he thinks that it is maybe likely the court isn't going to side with him in this instance.

是的,也许特朗普总统也这么认为。可能没有电视摄像机在场也不错。但他确实在纽约告诉CNN,他们本就不该在那里报道他。所以他似乎仍然坚持立场,至少拒绝某些媒体。但这将由法院来决定。总统暗示他认为法院可能不会在这个问题上支持他。

So we'll get into all of that this hour. But back to artificial intelligence and how to regulate it. It's not just about the speed of AI development. It's also how the workforce response and what the government needs to do to enable workers to be able to adapt in this new era of technology. And that's the conversation we had. Democratic Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, who has some new legislation, a different wrinkle than some of the approaches that we've heard.

所以我们将在这个小时讨论所有这些。但回到人工智能及其监管问题。这不仅仅是关于人工智能发展的速度,还涉及劳动力如何应对,以及政府需要做什么来帮助工人在这个新技术时代适应。这就是我们进行的对话。亚利桑那州民主党参议员马克·凯利提出了一些新立法,与我们听到的一些方法相比,这是一个不同的角度。

I believe there is a killswitch involved in the greater bill, but this would actually tax users and would have a digital tax as well to provide unemployment benefits, essentially for what could happen once AI evolves in that direction. We'll have that conversation with Senator Kelly for you. Are panels in place, Rick Davis and Jenny Zeno. And of course, we're always watching Wall Street. Indeed. And what a day it is today in the bond market especially.

我相信在更大的法案中涉及一个紧急停止开关,但这实际上会对用户征税,并征收数字税以提供失业救济金,本质上是为了应对人工智能朝那个方向发展的可能后果。我们将为您与凯利参议员进行这场对话。里克·戴维斯和珍妮·泽诺,小组讨论是否已安排妥当?当然,我们始终关注华尔街。确实。尤其是今天的债券市场,真是非同寻常的一天。

Am I looking at a ten year yield up 14 basis points. Charlie Pellet in New York. Do my eyes deceive me? What's happening? You know, Kailey, funny you should mention it because once in a while you see a quote go by and you do a double take. I did that today with a ten year, 5.10% right now on the ten year. In addition to that, we've also got rising energy prices. Bottom line, equities selling off right to the numbers with the S&P moving lower down 58 right now down by about 8/10 of 1%.

我看到十年期收益率上升了14个基点吗?查理·佩莱特在纽约。我的眼睛在欺骗我吗?发生了什么?你知道,凯莉,你提到这个很有趣,因为偶尔你会看到一句引语闪过,让你大吃一惊。我今天对十年期国债就是这样,目前十年期收益率为5.10%。此外,我们还有能源价格上涨。总而言之,股市正在抛售,标普指数下跌,目前下跌58点,跌幅约为0.8%。

We've got the Dow lower by 308. Dow industrials down 6/10 of 1%. A retreat for Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 index both hit records yesterday. Right now they are lower by 1.2% on Nasdaq. The Nasdaq 100 index declining by 1.1%. All of us with the stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. No strangers to big move up or down right now declining by 2.2%. The VIX just above 15. The two year 4.93%. And that ten year now 5.11% 30 year 5.39%.

道琼斯指数下跌308点,道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.6%。纳斯达克和纳斯达克100指数昨日均创下纪录。目前纳斯达克下跌1.2%,纳斯达克100指数下跌1.1%。所有股票都在波动。费城半导体指数。对于大幅上涨或下跌并不陌生,目前下跌2.2%。VIX指数略高于15。两年期国债收益率为4.93%。而十年期国债收益率现为5.11%,三十年期为5.39%。

Gold is down 1.9% 4279. The ounce West Texas Intermediate crude just above 91 a barrel, up 9/10 of 1%. Brent 122 up now by 3%. Mortgage rates holding close to the highest level in more than two years, weighing on a housing market already suppressed by elevated prices and sluggish sales. Mortgage Bankers Association puts the 30 year now at 7.1%. Mortgage rates, of course, closely track the ten year and that ten year, 5.12% for On-Demand use 24 hours a day.

黄金下跌1.9%,报4279美元。西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)每桶略高于91美元,上涨0.9%。布伦特原油报122美元,上涨3%。抵押贷款利率维持在两年多来的最高水平附近,给已经因高房价和疲软销售而受压制的房地产市场带来压力。抵押贷款银行家协会将30年期房贷利率定为7.1%。当然,抵押贷款利率紧密跟踪十年期国债收益率,目前十年期国债收益率为5.12%。On-Demand服务每天24小时为您提供使用。

Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now wherever you get your podcast. John Kelly that's a Bloomberg Businessweek. All right, Charlie Pallett running us through the remarkable market action today. And in the bond market specifically, it's not just the ten year I would point you to the five year as well, as we just got the results from a five year auction, $70 billion worth. And perhaps no surprise, given the movement we were already seeing going into the auction.

在您收听播客的任何地方订阅Bloomberg News Now。约翰·凯利,这是《彭博商业周刊》。好的,查理·佩莱特带我们回顾今天引人注目的市场动态。特别是在债券市场,我不仅想让你关注十年期国债,还要关注五年期国债,因为我们刚刚收到了五年期拍卖的结果,金额为700亿美元。也许并不令人惊讶,鉴于我们在拍卖前已经看到的走势。

Pretty big tail. The pre issue, uh, when issued yield 5.02%, drawing 5.033%. The five year yield Joe now up 19 basis points on the day to 503. That is really something. And we're going to have to continue to keep our eyes on it um throughout the hour. But of course, the other story that is dominating Washington today and that Wall Street we'll also be paying attention to as to what, if anything, comes out of this summit between President Trump and China's XI Jinping.

尾巴相当大。发行前,呃,发行收益率为5.02%,认购比例为5.033%。五年期收益率乔现在当天上涨19个基点至5.03%。这确实非同寻常。而且我们将不得不在这整个小时内持续关注它。但当然,今天主导华盛顿的另一个故事,以及华尔街也将关注的故事,是特朗普总统与中国国家主席习近平之间的峰会能否带来任何成果。

We know trade and tariffs, the war with Iran, Taiwan and yes, artificial intelligence are on the agenda. The question is whether talking about it gets us to any real deliverables in the aftermath. Well, that's right. And look, lawmakers are talking about it. In many cases. Democrats and Republicans are agreeing on this. You know, the president has called attempts to regulate a global scheme. Just as recently as yesterday.

我们知道贸易和关税、与伊朗的战争、台湾问题,是的,还有人工智能都在议程上。问题是,在事后仅仅讨论这些是否能让我们达成任何真正的成果。嗯,没错。而且你看,立法者们在讨论这个问题。在很多情况下,民主党和共和党对此意见一致。你知道,总统称试图监管是一场全球性的阴谋。就在昨天他还这么说。

We've heard about kill switches. We've heard about pacing the frontier. But there's a new bill from Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, who he spoke with a short time ago called the make I work for Americans Act to protect American workers specifically and regulate the I industry. It would come with some taxes. Kelly a digital ad tax and an AI user tax that would essentially create a fund to support workers impacted by the industry.

我们听说过紧急开关。我们听说过控制前沿发展速度。但亚利桑那州参议员马克·凯利提出了一项新法案,他不久之前接受了采访,该法案名为《让AI为美国人服务法案》,旨在 specifically 保护美国工人并规范AI行业。它将伴随一些税收。凯利提出的数字广告税和AI用户税将基本上创建一个基金,以支持受该行业影响的工人。

We got into this a short time ago with the Democrat from Arizona, and started by asking him if this is preparing for a white collar wipeout. Well, I don't think we know Joe. Um, but I think we have to be prepared. I would think about this. You know, I think about this as, like being in the space shuttle in the master alarm. Light is flashing in your face. It's time to act and come up with a plan. Um, and there is the possibility we could have significant job loss.

我们不久之前与这位来自亚利桑那州的民主党人进行了交流,开始时我问这是否是在为白领的大规模失业做准备。嗯,我不认为我们知道答案,乔。但我想我们必须做好准备。我会这样想这件事。你知道,我觉得这就像身处航天飞机中,主警报响起。灯光在你面前闪烁。是时候采取行动并制定计划了。嗯,并且有可能出现重大的失业损失。

Hasn't come as fast as we thought. However, the technology is moving along and becoming more capable than we anticipated. So I think it's appropriate now, especially when you consider the United States Congress and how hard it is like shepherd legislation through and eventually get it to a president's desk to be signed. You know, I think we need to establish a fund, generate some revenue, and then we could use that revenue to give people options When or if they lose their job and are trying to figure out what are they going to do next.

来得没有我们想象的那么快。然而,技术正在推进,并且变得比我们预期的更有能力。所以我认为现在是适当的时候,特别是当你考虑到美国国会,以及像引导立法通过并最终送到总统办公桌签署是多么困难时。你知道,我认为我们需要建立一个基金,产生一些收入,然后我们可以利用这些收入为人们提供选择,当他们或如果他们失去工作并试图弄清楚下一步该做什么时。

What would you say, Senator, if one of the AI labs were to push back on taxes like this, including on excess profits, and saying, well, that's less. We have to invest in R&D and to try to win a race against China. That President Trump is framing this entire conversation around. Is there a chance that regulating or putting into place legislation like this gives China a step ahead? Well, Kelly, I've had conversations with CEOs of the of the major AI companies and they realize, uh, the impact that their technology could have on the workforce.

参议员,如果某家 AI 实验室对这类税收(包括超额利润税)提出反对,声称这会导致收入减少,因为他们必须投资于研发并试图在与中国的竞争中胜出——而特朗普总统正是围绕这一点来构建整个对话的——您会怎么说?是否存在这样的风险:监管或出台此类立法会使中国抢占先机?

And they understand that there is an enormous amount of revenue that's going to be generated for them. Uh, when people when the, when these AI models are used to replace people. And from my conversations with them, it's pretty apparent that they they think they should be part of the solution. Uh, and they're, you know, uh, you know, they're agreeable that they shou

凯利,我与几家主要 AI 公司的首席执行官进行过交谈,他们意识到其技术可能对劳动力市场产生的影响。他们也明白,当这些 AI 模型被用于替代人类时,将为他们带来巨额收入。从我与他们的交流来看,很明显他们认为自身应当成为解决方案的一部分。而且,你知道,他们对此持开放态度,认为自己应该承担相应的责任。

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